Sector Trend Analysis - Ice Cream Trends in the United Arab Emirates

Contents

• Executive summary
• Introduction
• Retail sales
• Key categories
• Top companies and distribution
• New product launch analysis
• Examples of new products in the UAE
• Conclusion
• For more information
• Resources

Introduction

In 2016, 88% of the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) 8.5 million inhabitants consisted of expatriate workers from Asian and Western countries. This expatriate population can largely be categorised into two groups: the majority being low-income labourers, mainly from India, the Philippines, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, and a smaller group of professionals with a high disposable income, often from Western countries such as the United Kingdom or from other parts of the Middle East. Regardless of the varying incomes, however, premium ice cream brands tend to be more popular than standard and economy brands, both for individual and sharing packs.

Tourism is a major source of revenue in the UAE and this industry is expected to see increased growth toward the end of the forecast period (2017 to 2021), when Dubai is set to host Expo 2020. This is expected to positively impact sales of food in the region, particularly within the foodservice industry.

While ice cream sales in the UAE tend to be slightly higher in the summer, they are only moderately seasonal because of the country’s generally warm weather. This makes it a strong competitor to other snack and dessert categories throughout the entire year. According to Euromonitor International (2017), buying patterns in the UAE are changing and consumers are increasingly purchasing ice cream in ice cream parlours, rather than for at-home consumption.

Although Canada has not exported much ice cream to the UAE in recent years, in 2012, it represented 22.4% of the world’s ice cream exports to the UAE with US$6.7 million worth of ice cream exports.

Retails sales

Ice cream products in the UAE have experienced steady growth over the past five years, with total growth in retail sales value of 28.6%, at a compound annual growth rate of 6.5% from 2012 to 2016. The impulse ice cream category, which is made up of single portion dairy or water ice cream sold in stick, cone, or small cup format for immediate consumption, has taken the lead in recent years to become the most popular ice cream category in the UAE. Although the frozen yoghurt category only represented 0.5% market share of total ice cream value sales in 2016, sales increased by an impressive 200% from 2012 to 2016, followed by the impulse ice cream category, which increased by 51.9%, and the take-home ice cream category, which increased by 9.3%. It is expected that the frozen yoghurt category will likely continue to experience the most value growth over the forecast period (2017 to 2021); however, it is expected to see a more moderate increase of 57.1% from 2017 to 2021. The impulse ice cream category is expected to increase by 36.9% at a compound annual growth rate of 8.2% from 2017 to 2021, and the take-home ice cream category is expected to increase by 12% at a compound annual growth rate of 2.9% during the same period.

While the impulse ice cream category led ice cream sales in terms of value in 2016, the take-home ice cream category led in terms of volume, with 5.9 billion litres sold in the UAE in 2016. The frozen yoghurt category experienced the most growth, with volume of sales increasing by 140.3% from 2012 to 2016. The volume of impulse ice cream sold increased by 36.6% during the same period, while the take-home ice cream category saw the volume of sales increased by a moderate 1.4%. It is expected that the frozen yoghurt category will continue to experience the most growth during the forecast period (2017 to 2021); however, it will likely be more moderate growth with an anticipated increase of 67.5% from 2017 to 2021. Volume sales of impulse ice cream are expected to increase by 21.1% from 2017 to 2021, while those of take-home ice cream are expected to increase by 4.3% during the same period.

Key categories

Impulse ice cream

The impulse ice cream category was the largest ice cream category in 2016, in terms of sales value. It represented 52.6% of total ice cream sales, and 39.3% in volume.

With a combined retail value share of 48%, the most popular formats for impulse ice cream are cones and sticks. This is most likely due to the convenience of these formats.

The majority (54.8%) of impulse ice cream was sold in small independent grocers in 2016. The remaining 45.1% was sold in supermarkets (17.9%), convenience stores (14.5%), hypermarkets (7.7%), and forecourt retailers (5%).

• Main sub-categories
  • 97.6% of value sales for impulse ice cream were dairy ice cream in 2016, while 2.3% were water ice cream.
  • Value sales for the single portion dairy ice cream sub-category grew 52.9% from 2012 to 2016, at a compound annual growth rate of 11.2%.
  • Value sales for the single portion water ice cream sub-category grew 30% from 2012 to 2016, at a compound annual growth rate of 6.8%.
• Main brands
  • The London Dairy brand by IFFCO Group led the impulse ice cream category with 27.1% market share in 2016, followed by Galaxy/Dove by Mars Inc. (12.3%), and Häagen-Dazs by General Mills Inc. (7.7%).
  • In 2016, London Dairy sold US$15.3 million worth of impulse ice cream, while Galaxy/Dove saw sales of US$6.9 million, and Häagen-Dazs saw sales of US$4.3 million.
  • Of the top ten impulse ice cream brands in the UAE, Ben & Jerry's by Unilever Group experienced the most growth, increasing at a compound annual growth rate of 21.5% from 2012 to 2016.
• Forecast for 2017-2021
  • It is expected that the impulse ice cream category will increase at a compound annual growth rate of 8.2% from 2017 to 2021, reaching sales worth US$83.1 million by 2021.
  • Single portion dairy ice cream is expected to remain the leading sub-category from 2017 to 2021 and sales are expected to increase by 37.2%, reaching US$81.5 million by 2021.
  • Sales of single portion water ice cream are expected to increase by 3.6%, reaching
    US$1.5 million by 2021.

Take-home ice cream

In 2016, the majority (78.9%) of take-home ice cream was sold in modern grocery retailers such as hypermarkets and supermarkets. 20.2% of take-home ice cream was sold in traditional grocery retailers such as small independent grocers, and 0.8% was sold through internet retailing.

• Main sub-categories
  • “Take-home dairy ice cream” was the leading take-home ice cream sub-category in 2016, with US$49.2 million in retail sales. 92.3% of those sales were bulk dairy ice cream, while 7.7% were multi-pack dairy ice cream.
  • “Take-home water ice cream” was the second largest sub-category, worth US$1.2 million in 2016. 66.7% of those sales were for multi-pack water ice cream, while 25% were for bulk water ice cream.
  • The take-home water ice cream sub-category experienced the most growth with sales increasing by 50% from 2012 to 2016, at a compound annual growth rate of 10.7%.
• Main brands
  • In addition to leading the impulse ice cream category, the London Dairy brand by IFFCO Group also led the take-home ice cream category with 38% market share in 2016, followed by Häagen-Dazs by General Mills Inc. (8.6%) and Igloo by IFFCO Group (6.9%).
  • In 2016, London Dairy sold US$19.2 million worth of take-home ice cream, while Häagen-Dazs saw sales of US$4.3 million, and Igloo saw sales of US$3.5 million.
  • Of the top ten take-home ice cream brands in the UAE, London Dairy Cones by IFFCO Group experienced the most growth, increasing at a compound annual growth rate of 62.7% from 2012 to 2016, followed by Carte d'Or by Unilever Group, which increased at a compound annual growth rate of 14.4% over the same period.
• Forecast for 2017-2021
  • It is expected that take-home water ice cream will experience the most growth during the forecast period (2017-2021) with an anticipated compound annual growth rate of 5.7%.
  • According to Euromonitor International (2017), take-home dairy ice cream will remain the most important sub-category during the forecast period (2017-2021), reaching an anticipated retail sales of US$56.3 million by 2021.

Frozen yoghurt

Although the frozen yoghurt category was the smallest, it experienced the most significant growth of all the ice cream categories, increasing by 200% from 2012 to 2016. This category increased at a compound annual growth rate of 31.6% during the last five years (2012 to 2016), reaching a retail value of US$0.6 million in 2016. This strong growth may be due to the growing awareness of health and nutrition among consumers in the UAE and the perception that frozen yoghurt is a healthier alternative to traditional ice cream. According to Euromonitor International (2017), an increased presence of frozen yoghurt in shopping mall ice cream parlours may also be influencing consumers to purchase frozen yoghurt later in supermarkets for consumption at home.

• Main sub-categories
  • The frozen yoghurt category does not have any sub-category data available.
• Main brands
  • London Dairy by IFFCO Group was the leading brand for frozen yoghurt in the UAE in 2016, with 62.5% market share.
  • Bulla by Regal Cream Products Pty. Ltd. followed with 26.3% market share with 2016.
  • London Dairy saw the most growth with a compound annual growth rate of 41.4% from 2012 to 2016, while Bulla grew at a compound annual growth rate of 18.9% during the same time period.
• Forecast for 2017-2021
  • It is expected that frozen yoghurt will continue to experience strong growth, although most likely at a more moderate compound annual growth rate of 12% from 2017 to 2021.
  • It is anticipated that the frozen yoghurt category will increase by 57.1% from 2017 to 2021, reaching sales worth US$1.1 million by 2021.

Top companies and distribution

For ice cream products as a whole, IFFCO Group was the top company, representing 40.8% market share in 2016. IFFCO Group is a local company, which allows them to quickly adapt and include the latest consumer trends into their product lines. Of the top companies, Mars GCC saw the most growth, increasing by 30.7% from 2012 to 2016, followed by Unilever Middle East (13.9%), and National Trading & Development Est. (12.5%).

Most ice cream sales in 2016 took place in store-based retailers, while 0.4% took place online. Of the store-based sales, 61.1% took place at modern grocery retailers, such as hypermarkets (33.7%), supermarkets (16.9%), convenience stores (7.8%), and forecourt retailers (2.7%), while 38.5% took place at traditional grocery retailers, such as independent small grocers (37.2%) and food/drink/tobacco specialists (1.3%).

Retail sales for ice cream products in independent small grocers represented US$40 million in 2016 and those in hypermarkets represented US$36.1 million. Convenience store sales, however, have experienced the most growth, increasing in value by an impressive 180% from 2012 to 2016 at a compound annual growth rate of 29.4%.

New product launch analysis

From 2007 to 2016, there were 32 ice cream and frozen yoghurt products launched in the UAE. Over 62% of the ice cream and frozen yoghurt products launched were new product introductions, while 34.4% were varieties/range extensions to an existing product line, and 3.1% were existing products that were relaunched with new packaging.

Description of the above image

Year	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Number of ice cream and frozen yoghurt products	0	1	1	0	1	0	8	8	4	9

Description of the above image

• New product 63%
• New variety/range 34%
• New packaging 3%

Examples of new products in the UAE

London Dairy

Company	London Dairy, U.K.
Brand	London Dairy
Launch Type	new variety / range extension
Price in US Dollars	$7.47
Description	London Dairy Premium Ice Cream with Mocha Almond Fudge is a combination of premium mocha flavoured ice cream with swirls of coffee sauce and roasted almond pieces. This ice cream is made using only vegetarian ingredients. The product retails in a 1L tub.
Positioning Claims	premium, vegetarian

Quanta

Company	Unipex Dairy Products, U.A.E.
Brand	Quanta
Launch Type	new packaging
Price in US Dollars	$2.72
Description	Quanta Mini Almonds Premium Vanilla Ice Cream has been repackaged in a redesigned pack of six 50ml units with one ice cream free, and featuring the Facebook logo. The product comprises vanilla ice cream dipped in a milk chocolate coating with roasted almonds.
Positioning Claims	premium, social media

Baskin Robbins

Company	Silver Pail Dairy, Ireland
Brand	Baskin Robbins
Launch Type	new variety / range extension
Price in US Dollars	$9.30
Description	Baskin Robbins Chocolate Chip Ice Cream is made by pouring liquid chocolate into vanilla ice cream. This product is halal certified and retails in a 1L tub.
Positioning Claims	halal

Igloo

Company	Al-Ain National Juice & Refreshments, U.A.E
Brand	Igloo
Launch Type	new variety / range extension
Price in US Dollars	$7.15
Description	Igloo Malai Kulfi Ice Cream is traditional kulfi ice cream with pistachio and cashew nuts. This product retails in a 2L tub bearing the SGS logo.
Positioning Claims	N/A

Marks & Spencer, U.K.

Company	Marks & Spencer, U.K.
Brand	Marks & Spencer, U.K.
Launch Type	new product
Price in US Dollars	$5.33
Description	Marks & Spencer Mixed Berry Frozen Yogurt comprises natural and swirled mixed berry frozen yogurt with blueberry pieces. The vegetarian product retails in a 500ml pack.
Positioning Claims	vegetarian

Kwality Ice Cream

Company	Pure Ice Cream, U.A.E.
Brand	Kwality Ice Cream
Launch Type	new variety / range extensiont
Price in US Dollars	$1.28
Description	Kwality Ice Cream Maharaja Koolfi Kulfi Ice Cream consists of a premium kulfi ice cream with a kulfi flavoured coating and pistachio nuts. This product is suitable for vegetarians and retails in an 80ml pack.
Positioning Claims	premium, vegetarian

Conclusion

With its warm climate, the UAE is a good market for companies looking to export since they have a better chance of competing with other snack and dessert categories. Companies that are interested in exporting ice cream products to the UAE should be aware of the trends toward premium, and health and wellness products.

With the upcoming Expo 2020 in Dubai and likely subsequent increase in tourism, there may be increased opportunities for innovative and premium products in the foodservice sector.

Although consumers have shown a preference for impulse ice-cream products, there is increasing opportunities for frozen yoghurt products, which are perceived to be a healthier alternative to ice cream.

For more information

International Trade Commissioners can provide Canadian industry with on-the-ground expertise regarding market potential, current conditions and local business contacts, and are an excellent point of contact for export advice.

• Overview of Trade Commissioner Services in the UAE
• Find a Trade Commissioner

For additional intelligence on this and other markets, the complete library of Global Analysis reports can be found on the International agri-food market intelligence page, arranged by region.

For additional information on Gulfood 2018 please contact:

Ben Berry, Deputy Director
Trade Show Strategy and Delivery
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
ben.berry@canada.ca

Resources

• Euromonitor International, 2017.
• Euromonitor International, 2017 – Ice Cream and Frozen Desserts in the United Arab Emirates
• Mintel Global New Products Database (GNPD), 2017.

Sector Trend Analysis
Ice Cream Trends in the United Arab Emirates

Prepared by: Julie Acheson, Market Analyst

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