Sector Trend Analysis – Fish and seafood trends in Germany

Trade overview

According to Euromonitor, Germany's fish and seafood market is highly competitive, where they have extensive regulations on certain species which causes entry barriers in a variety of services, making growth opportunities limited for producers and potential investors. In addition, the European Union's (EU) protocol derivatives impose stringent requirements on imported fish and seafood goods. Germany's inspection manual states that "products must comply with specific sets of regulations with regard to ingredients, packaging, labelling, and applicable veterinary requirements"^{Footnote 1}.

In 2018. Germany imported 1.2 billion kilograms of fish and seafood products from the world, worth Can$7.8 billion; a −3.4% decrease in quantity equivalent to a 1.4% increase in value from 2016 to 2018, respectively. Despite Germany's declining consumption of fish and seafood, the increasing total value is caused by the rising price that has shifted from approximately Can$6.00 to Can$6.61 dollar per kilo of fish and seafood. Also, the increasing interest in ethical living among German consumers has further influenced trade opportunities in Germany resulting in demand for organic, fair-trade and sustainable fish and seafood catches.

Poland continues to be the top supplier of Germany's fish imports with Can$1.4 billion in value and 156.0 million kilograms in volume, followed by the Netherlands with Can$914.6 million and 145.3 million kilograms in 2018. Poland holds an import share of 18.4%, followed by the Netherlands (11.7%), Norway (10.4%), Denmark (8.9%) and China (7.1%). Canada is ranked as the 18th largest non-EU supplier to Germany with an import value of Can$31.1 million, with an import quantity of 2.5 million kilograms of fish and seafood products in 2018.

The main imported products from the world were smoked Pacific/Atlantic/Danube salmon, with a total decreased value of Can$832.5 million, followed by fresh or chilled Atlantic/Danube salmon, with a total value of Can$608.2 million in 2018.

Canada's performance

At a glance, Canada is a net exporter of fish and seafood products to Germany with total exports to Germany of Can$31.1 million (total import value of Can$10.2 million) in 2018, a decrease in net exporter value of −2.3% from 2017.

Canada is Germany's 18^th largest non-EU supplier, with only a 0.4% market share in 2018 of Germany's fish and seafood supply, a decrease in imports of −8.5% from 2017. Canada supplies one of Germany's top ten fish commodities that are imported from the world, smoked Pacific/Atlantic/danube salmon, where there is a Canadian supply gap of 37.8 million kilograms of fish. This supply gap can be an opportunity for the Canadian fish and seafood industry to increase its exports to Germany for this top commodity, alone at an otherwise lost trade value of Can$831.6 million.

According to Statistics Canada, total Canadian fish and seafood exports into Germany in 2018 are experiencing modest fluctuation among various types of fish and seafood species, with a 3-year CAGR decline of −17.0% during the 2016-2018 period. Leading Canadian fish and seafood products to currently capitalize on by highest volume sales are fresh lobster "homarus" (Can$10.9 million, up by 64.6%)^{Footnote 2}, frozen lobster "homarus" (Can$5.9 million, down by −8.3%), and cavier substitutes (Can$2.2 million, up by 36.6%).

Market characteristics

Despite the effects of Germany's 2014 economic downturn which caused the volume sales of fish and seafood to decline by -5.3%, forecasts anticipate a growth in the total consumer expenditure by a 1.1% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2017 and 2030. This trend will likely come from the effects of a modest rise in wages and a higher gain in consumer confidence, which should result in an increasing disposable income. This trend will therefore provide a favourable opportunity for manufacturers and retailers to target health conscious consumers along with Germany's aging society, to promote the substantial health benefits of fish and seafood, such as raising awareness that by incorporating fish into one's daily cuisine helps the consumer to obtain the daily recommended amounts of the essential omega fatty acid nutrients like Omega-3 and Omega-6.

Fish volume sales of fresh (counter), chilled raw packaged and dried fish and seafood products are predicted to continue being the highest growth categories among German consumers, while the larger categories including shelf-stable and frozen fish and seafood are expected to continue to slightly decline in volume sales. A survey suggests that 75% claim they enjoy the fish flavour, 59% say they consume fish for its health benefits and 44% consider fish to be a low-fat alternative to meat (Euromonitor International, 2018). Respectively from largest to smallest, the top preferred fish in Germany include salmon, tuna/skipjack/bonito, Alaskan Pollack, smoked trout and herring, which accounts for over 53% of all top imported whole fish or fish fillet consumption.

According to Euromonitor, Germany's fish and seafood demand will witness an unremitted growth in category performance over the forecasted period between 2019 and 2022, if German consumers can foresee the elevated health benefits of consuming fish and seafood in comparison to other meats.

Retail market

As German consumers attempt to incorporate the health benefits of fish and seafood into their diet, both historical and forecasted progression reveal a preference for shelf-stable or frozen fish and seafood with a respective total value of US$1,303.6 million in 2018, followed by frozen processed or whole cut fish and seafood which accounted for US$1,516.7 million as they offer greater convenience. However, growth rates are increasing at a faster rate than these categories whereby more consumers are leaning toward fresh fish and seafood with a historical CAGR of 4.5% to a forecasted CAGR of 5.0% (2015-2022), also seeing healthy growth rates in the packaged chilled raw processed/whole cuts (3.5% to 4.1%) along with dried fish and seafood products (3.8% to 4.5%).

A market analysis report developed by Euromonitor International stated that German consumers, living a relatively hectic and busy lifestyle, consider eating fish and seafood as a convenient snack rather than as a meal which explains the preference for packaged (78.1%) fish and seafood as opposed to unpackaged or fresh (21.9%). Moreover, fresh fish counter retail stores and supermarkets are not common in Germany. Overall, 21.9% of fish and seafood consumed by Germans are fresh, 35.1% are frozen, and 43.0% with more alternative format options, are canned or packaged either as shelf stable, chilled raw processed/whole cut or dried product types.

Foodservice and retail sales distribution

Sales of fish and seafood were distributed throughout retail outlets and accounted for 46.0% of the total value share in Germany in 2017, closely followed by foodservice channels (profit operators), representing 46.6% and institutional foodservice providers (cost operators) at 7.4% of the market share. These sale values indicate that 26.9% of consumers often choose to dine at restaurants for a fish or seafood meal.

Within the retail distribution channels, the discounter trade remained the primary method to buy 48.6% of fish and seafood products mainly within the smoked, canned, fish marinades and frozen fish categories in Germany in 2017. Hypermarkets and supermarkets may be the more trusted source to buy and sell in particularly fresh fish and seafood products with a 39.2% and 33.4%, respective market share. The share of buying fish products from fishmonger markets have dropped from 5.2% to 4.6% between 2016 and 2017, while other points of sale accounted for approximately 7.6%.^{Footnote 3}

Consumer trends

In Germany, consumption of fish and seafood is higher among males than females, and older consumers (55+ years) accounted for the highest consumption by a 49.4% volume share in 2016 (GlobalData, 2018). Per capita consumption of fish and seafood for retail off-trade alone, has reached 4.9 kilograms in 2017 (totalling a combined on/off-trade volume share of 14.3kg/person) and is derived by a combination of factors including dietary preferences which is connected to the rising obesity rates in Germany. The increasing consumption of fatty foods has caused obesity rates in Germany to reach 24.3% for males and 25.0% for females, which is a considerable increase since 2005 when only 19.8% males and 21.4% females were classified as obese (Euromonitor International, 2018). To counteract this health problem, German policymakers are now requiring health and social insurers to pay for intervention programmes and increased reimbursement for medical treatments for obesity, in hopes of further altering consumers' food choices.

The continued growth in awareness of health has not only made many German consumers adopt healthier shopping habits, but it has also prompted them to focus on the environmental and ethical effects of their purchases. Thus, many German consumers feel strongly about sustainability and seek high quality fish and seafood with eco-labels such as Marine Stewardship Council Certified (MSC-Certified) or Aquaculture Stewardship Council Certified (ASC-Certified). Nevertheless, the negative media on the environmental impact of fishing has also counteracted against awareness efforts by further swaying consumers to reduce and limit their consumption of fish and seafood which is the contributing cause to the declining demand in Germany. Despite the fact that per capita expenditure in Germany (US$50.8) is higher when compared to the global level (US$35.7), per capita consumption of fish and seafood retail off-trade volume is expected to decline from 4.9kg in 2017 to 4.8kg by 2022, which is lower when compared to both the global and regional levels of 5.4kg and 10.7kg, respectively, in 2017 (GlobalData: Country profile fish and seafood in Germany, 2018).

Euromonitor International conducted a Global Consumer Trend (GCT) survey in 2016, where it amplifies Germans concern about the impacts of their purchasing choices through their growing interest in the origin, animal welfare standards and genetically-modified content of the foods they consume. The survey highlights that two-thirds of respondents stated that they cared more about the quality than the price when buying meat or fish and seafood. The results also reveal that 58% of consumers would pay a price premium for a product given that husbandry process was conducted in an animal-friendly manner and certified by the German Animal Welfare Association. Some 77% of consumers favour stricter regulations for animal welfare; while 45% of consumers said they would be unable to recognise meat from adequate husbandry.

The share of sales accounted for organic fish and seafood appears to experience a steady increase reaching 2.2% in 2017, as a growing number of consumers consider the importance of caring for the environment and choosing more ecological/sustainable products. However, there are still a vast majority of consumers who cannot differentiate organic from conventional (standard) fish and seafood which explains the greater proportion of share (97.8% in 2017).

In order to boost sales, potential producers and manufacturers can seek higher quality offerings by acquiring fish and seafood from MSC-Certified fisheries. Furthermore, capitalizing on Germany's increasing economic confidence, and marketing campaigns can provide a positive influence on retail consumption by educating German consumers on the health benefits, as well as, providing instructions on how to cook various fish and seafood meals in a tasty and efficient manner.

Competitive landscape

Leading brands in the sector were Hawesta (Thai Union Group Public Company Ltd., 3.6%) value share, Appel (Appel Feinkost Gmbh., 3.2%) and Saupiquet (Bolton Group S.p.A., 1.8%) in 2017. These top three companies and brands offer products in the 'shelf-stable fish and seafood' category. Lysell brand, owned by 'Lysell GmbH', followed closely behind the leaders and held a value share of 1.3%. Private labels accounted for a value share of 49.0% in the German fish and seafood sector in 2017.

New product launch analysis

According to the Mintel Global New Product Database (GNPD), a total of 854 processed products containing fish and seafood (49 specifically seafood) ingredients were launched in Germany between January 2017 and March 2019.

As seen in the consumer trend analysis, the leading claim is for the "ethical - sustainable friendly products", which accounted for approximately 60.3% based on the total sample size. Over this period, the top attributes were packaging type in a tray format, for chilled fish and seafood products, launched mostly as new varieties or range extensions. Top companies were discounters such as Lidl and Aldi Süd/Nord, sold the majority of the time in supermarkets which is the leading point of sale for fish and seafood in Germany, and top preferred flavours were either unflavoured/plain, smoked or in a tomato paste.

Examples of new products

Fish Fingers

Source: Mintel, GNPD, 2018

Company	Penny Market
Brand	Penny
Category	Processed fish, meat and egg products
Sub-category	Fish products
Country	Germany
Manufacturing country	Germany
Store name	Penny Market
Store type	Supermarket
Date published	April 2018
Launch type	Relaunch
Price in US dollars	1.97

Penny Fischstäbchen (Fish Fingers) has been reformulated and relaunched. It is now made with 100% Alaska pollock fillets from MSC certified fishery. These pre-fried breaded fish fingers are virtually boneless and can be prepared in a low fat way in the oven until they are tasty and crunchy.

Ingredients (on pack): Alaska pollock fillets (65%), wheat flour, sunflower oil, potato starch, water, table salt, yeast, spices

Organic Spanish Paella with Chicken, Fish and Seafood

Source: Mintel, GNPD, 2018

Company	Ökoland
Brand	Ökoland
Category	Meals and meal centers
Sub-category	Prepared meals
Country	Germany
Store name	Basic
Store type	Natural/health food store
Date published	July 2010
Launch type	New variety/range/extension
Price in US dollars	7.30

Ökoland Spanische Paella mit Huhn, Fisch und Meeresfrüchten (Organic Spanish Paella with Chicken, Fish and Seafood) includes curcuma rice and comes in a microwaveable plate. The product is free from added flavours and other flavour enhancers. It retails in a 450 gram (g) pack.

Ingredients (on pack): Cooked curcuma rice* (48%) (water, rice*, table salt, curcuma*), peas* (7%), seafood (shrimps*, muscles, table salt), pangasius fillet* (6%), cooked chicken meat*, butter*, bell pepper*, onions*, mushrooms*, tomatoes*, olive oil*, sea salt, raw cane sugar*, vegetable broth (table salt, rice flour*, parsnips*, onions*, olive oil*, carrots*, curcuma*), spices* (garlic*, pepper*, chili*), herbs* (oregano*, thyme*, basil*).

Herring Fillets in Tomato Sauce with herbs

Source: Mintel, GNPD, 2018

Company	Nadler Feinkost
Brand	Nadler
Category	Processed fish, meat and egg products
Sub-category	Fish product
Country	Germany
Store name	Edeka Simmel
Store type	Supermarket
Date published	March 2018
Launch type	New variety/range extension
Price in US dollars	3.71

Nadler Heringsfilets in Tomatosauce mit Kräutern (Herring Fillets in Tomato Sauce with Herbs) features an original Nadler flavour made out of high quality and MSC certified fish from Norway. The product retails in a 400g pack.

Ingredients (on pack): Herring (40%) (Clupea harengus), water, tomato puree (12%), onions, sugar, tomatoes (2.5%), brandy vinegar, herbs (thyme, rosemary), rapeseed oil, salt, spices, modified starch, garlic, acidifier (acetic acid).

Conclusion

According to GlobalData's country risk index (GCRI Q3 in 2017) in terms of a macroeconomic analysis, Germany is considered having a lower risk score than the Western Europe^{Footnote 4} and world average where the country ranked 10^th out of 136 nations, scoring 18.7 (0 is best, 100 is worst). Germany is a healthy and promising country who relies on imports in the fish and seafood sector. In volume terms, the sector is expected to fall while the German retail sales value is expected to grow from US$4,407.3 million in 2019 to US$4,714.1 million by 2022, at a CAGR of 2.3%. Although, historically shelf-stable and frozen fish and seafood products held larger market share, these categories are expected to decline between 2019 and 2022, whereby the 'fresh fish and seafood (counter)' category is expected to gain the maximum market share in volume terms at a CAGR of 2.6% during this period.

In comparison with the rest of Western Europe, Germany is the country most driven by ethical and environmental criteria when it comes to consumption and lifestyle choices. While several barriers prevent fishery producers from prevailing in the German market such as the limited consumer knowledge about fish and seafood and the market entry requirements, the opportunities are promising especially for products with emphasis on sustainability and eco-labelling. In fact, according to the Trade Commissioner in Germany: MSC- or ASC certificates are a key requirement of the German retail trade and German importers/distributors are thus sourcing eco-certified fish/seafood products whenever possible, which may even be a non-tariff barrier to some Canadian suppliers should they not be able to provide certified products.

For more information

International Trade Commissioners can provide Canadian industry with on-the-ground expertise regarding market potential, current conditions and local business contacts, and are an excellent point of contact for export advice.

• Overview of the Trade Commissioner Service in Germany
• Find a Trade Commissioner

For additional intelligence on this and other markets, the complete library of Global Analysis reports can be found on the International agri-food market intelligence page, arranged by region.

For additional information on the tradeshow, Seafood Expo Global (SEG) in Brussels, Belgium please contact:

Ben Berry, Deputy Director
Trade Show Strategy and Delivery
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
ben.berry@canada.ca

Sector Trend Analysis – Fish and seafood trends in Germany
Global Analysis Report

Prepared by: Erin-Ann Chauvin and Sora Abdul Saheb (Co-op student), Global Market Analysts

© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, represented by the Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food (2019).

Photo credits
All photographs reproduced in this publication are used by permission of the rights holders.
All images, unless otherwise noted, are copyright Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada.

To join our distribution list or to suggest additional report topics or markets, please contact:

The Government of Canada has prepared this report based on primary and secondary sources of information. Although every effort has been made to ensure that the information is accurate, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) assumes no liability for any actions taken based on the information contained herein.

Reproduction or redistribution of this document, in whole or in part, must include acknowledgement of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada as the owner of the copyright in the document, through a reference citing AAFC, the title of the document and the year. Where the reproduction or redistribution includes data from this document, it must also include an acknowledgement of the specific data source(s), as noted in this document.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada provides this document and other report services to agriculture and food industry clients free of charge.