Sector Trend Analysis – Cider market trends in the United States and the United Kingdom

Trend analysis

Young consumers

In the United Kingdom, cider is very popular among 18 to 24 year olds and split equally among genders. Oppositely, cider producers in the United States (U.S.) are mostly targeting consumers between the ages of 30 and 45. The U.S. cider market is predicted to mimic the marketing plan of the United Kingdom (U.K.) to capture the millennials (born between 1980 and 2000) that are coming in the market. The millennia are the segment of the population, per capita, that shows the greatest interest in cider. (Euromonitor International, 2018)

Healthier lifestyles

The trend is upward in the United States and the United Kingdom, where millennia are looking for a healthier lifestyle. Originally, due to the simple list of ingredients used in its production and the fact that it is gluten free, cider found favour with consumers looking for alternatives to beer and heavily processed ready-to-drink mixes (RTDs^{Footnote 1}). However, consumers are giving greater importance now on moderating their sugar consumption, which has a significant impact on U.S. cider's sales. Growing negative attitudes among consumers regarding higher sugar content in alcoholic drinks will continue to strengthen in the United States and in the U.K. markets over the forecast period (2018 to 2022). Cider consumers continued to seek less sweet cider variants; a trend set to gain further traction in the coming years (2018 to 2022) that could negatively impact the cider industry within these markets.

In the United States, cider products are facing greater competition by various new innovative RTD products launched early 2016. Especially alcoholic sodas-type products that performed well in 2016 and 2017 by attracting new consumers interested in gluten-free alternatives to beer in the former case and in the latter, consumers concerned with avoiding beverages with high sugar content. (Euromonitor International, 2018)

Craft cider

Cider drinkers' expectations are growing, and overlap with those of craft beer drinkers. The craft cider movement is emerging hard in the United States, with smaller producers delivering small and customized orders to local distributors. The factors behind the rise of the craft cider sector are generally the same as they were for the craft beer sector. Consumers increasingly want to buy from local producers that offer unique products with their own signature style and taste. This has caught the attention of consumers, particularly younger people open to new trends who seek alternatives to mainstream products.

In the United Kingdom, consumers are increasingly buying ciders that are perceived as having a "craft touch" or that are produced regionally. They are looking for more authenticity within cider brands, increasing competition between different established cider brands.

According to Beverage Information Group Research, in the United States, the general public (not the usual cider drinkers) doesn't necessarily know what cider is, where it comes from and more importantly, how it is made. When a cider maker creates a new cider, there is a great level of complexity that the average consumer is not aware about; such as the balance between sweetness, tannin level and acidity. There's a big opportunity to grow the industry through education, marketing and advertising.

Seasonality of cider

Cider in the United States has long been marketed almost exclusively as a refreshing type beverage for the summer. Any particularly hot or cool summer has the potential to influence demand while many consumers enjoy cider only in summer. Consequently, cider is a seasonal beverage, with considerable volume sales recorded during summer and a low sale volume during winter, especially within the northern states.

Market sizes

In volume terms, cider was about 18.9% of the beer market in the United Kingdom and close to 1% of the American and Canadian beer markets. According to beverage dynamic, there is significant room for expansion in the U.K. (the most developed cider market) where demographics and consumer preferences look set to support further increases in cider sales. However, the cider industry in the U.K is being predominantly produced domestically and has a well-established network of national producers.

In the United States, cider sales are predicted to record a negative −5.1% total volume CAGR (compound annual growth rate) decline over the forecast period (2018-2022), declining to 155 million litres in 2022. In the United Kingdom, cider sales records a total volume decline of 1% to 848 million litres in 2017 and it is expected to increase by a CAGR of 1% in total volume terms over the forecast period (2018 to 2022), reaching 877 million litres in 2022.

Some cider producers in the United Kingdom will be challenged by the introduction of minimum unit pricing for all alcoholic beverages in Scotland from May 2018. While this will only initially impact Scotland's mainstream cider products (low-cost cider); Wales and England are expected to follow suit over the forecast period (2018 to 2022).

This should lead to all mainstream cider producers having to increase their off-trade unit prices to the level of mid-priced products. In addition, a higher duty band targeting cheap, high-strength white ciders is expected to be implemented in February 2019. This will create even more obstacles for mainstream cider and eventually drive consumers towards more premium brands. (Euromonitor Internationale, 2018)

Canadian exports

In 2017, the United States accounts for almost all of Canadian cider exports abroad (98.8%). By comparison, Canadian exports to U.K. amounted to just under Can$40,000. Cider consumers will be relatively unaffected by the UK's decision to leave the European Union (EU)^{Footnote 3}. National cider consumption is being predominantly absorbed by the domestic level of production.

However, companies which import their products from abroad are expected to face obstacles once the UK has left the EU single market. The situation regarding possible tariffs remains to be monitored for any Canadian producers wishing to export to the United Kingdom.

Brands and companies

After five years of impressive growth, some producers might have worried about dipping into the red last year as overall cider sales fell for the second year in a row. However, according to Michelle McGrath, Executive Director at the United States Association of Cider Makers (USACM): "The declines are driven by dips in the sales of national brands. If you look closer at the data, the real story to tell is continued double-digit growth of regional and local cider brands".

Product launch analysis

Flavors

Flavoured cider products, such as dark fruit ciders, continue to grow and increase their shares. In 2019, cider is expected to introduce even more flavours and exotic products on the back of the craft revolution.

Premium products, both local and imported, also drive growth in cider. While cider sales tend to soar in warmer months, more exotic and weather-adapt offerings such as mulled or spiced cider are expected to keep sales afloat over winter months.

Rosé ciders in the United States

In the United States, pink ciders have been circulating for several years on a smaller scale, starting with small batches, sold in bottles and cans. The growth of rosé cider has been largely driven by women consumers, especially millennial women living in metropolitan areas.

According to Michelle McGrath, Executive Director of the U.S. Association of Cider Makers: "I think what rosé cider is going to achieve is bringing new drinkers to the cider category, where they will start to explore the other varieties out there other than rosé." Consequently, this type of product can be a good "gateway" for new consumers, who will potentially be attracted to the other products that the brand has to offer.

Packaging

In order to create greater shelf presence, products are increasingly using colourful and illustrative styles to create a unique package. As it is the case for craft beer products, cider brands and products need to explore new territories to stand out amongst competitors and have greater shelf presence. In the United States, the craft beer has paved the way for this shift in packaging design, yielding the bottle aisles in our supermarkets into modern art exhibitions of colour, asymmetric design and striking typography. Local cider producers increasingly utilise all their creativity to design some beautiful packaging that will sell the image of their brand by just being on the shelves.

Claims

Constantly refining their diet in search of having a better diet and lifestyle, consumers in the selected markets, are increasingly buying healthy beverages. This trend also applied to their personal consumption of alcoholic products where consumers are increasingly looking for low sugar or gluten free products. Also, manufacturers have developed new packaging that are environmentally-friendly to meet the environmental expectations that many customers have.

Description of above image

ClaimFootnote 4	United Kingdom	United States	Canada	Total
Low/no/reduced allergen	72	146	39	257
Gluten free	72	146	38	256
Ethical - environmentally friendly package	146	71	36	253
Recycling	146	71	36	253
Premium	95	14	15	124
Social media	74	22	8	104
Vegetarian	84	1	0	85
Vegan/no animal ingredients	74	2	1	77
Seasonal edition	10	28	5	43
No additives/preservatives	19	14	5	38

Source: Mintel, 2018

Product examples

Original Cider

Company	HP Bulmer
Brand	Strongbow
Country	United Kingdom
Store name	Tesco
Store type	Supermarket
Date published	November 2017
Price in local currency	£11.00
Price in US dollars	14.44
Pack size	440.000 ml
Alcohol By Volume (%)	5.00

Strongbow Original Cider has been repackaged with an updated design. This thirst quenching product is a dry apple cider, contains sugar and sweeteners, and is described as the ultimate cut-through refreshment. It retails in a recyclable pack, containing 20 × 440ml recyclable cans.

Wakefire Cider

Company	Blake's Hard Cider Co.
Brand	Blake's Hard Cider Co.
Country	United States
Store name	Giant Eagle
Store type	Supermarket
Price in local currency	$10.49
Pack size	12.000 fluid ounces (fl. oz) (US)
Alcohol By Volume (%)	6.50

Blake's Hard Cider Co. Wakefire Cider has been infused with Michigan cherries and orange peel. This naturally gluten free product retails in a pack of six 12-fl oz cans.

Granny Smith Hard Cider

Company	Vermont Cider
Brand	Woodchuck
Country	United States
Store name	Publix
Store type	Supermarket
Date published	October 2017
Price in local currency	$9.99
Pack size	12.000 fl. oz (US)
Alcohol By Volume (%)	5.00

Woodchuck Granny Smith Hard Cider have been repackaged in a newly designed recyclable pack containing six 12-fl. oz. bottles and bearing the Twitter, Facebook and Instagram logos. This refreshing tart cider is made with 100% granny smith apples and is pale in color with a sharp crisp taste that finishes dry and tangy. The lightly carbonated product is gluten free.

Revival Hard Apple Cider

Company	Reverend Nat's Hard Cider
Brand	Reverend Nat's
Country	United States
Store name	QFC
Store type	Supermarket
Store address	Seattle 98126
Date published	August 2017
Price in local currency	$5.49

Reverend Nat's Revival Hard Apple Cider is now available. It is made with the American apples, farmhouse saison yeast from Hainaut in Belgium and features an exotic secret culture yielding notes of pineapple, mango and dried pear as well as a sprinkle of Michoacan piloncillo. This product is gluten free and retails in a 500ml pack.

The Saint Unfiltered Hard Apple Cider

Company	Crispin Cider
Brand	Crispin Artisanal Reserve
Sub-category	Cider
Country	United States
Store name	Safeway
Store type	Supermarket
Store address	Seattle 98116
Date published	August 2017
Price in local currency	$6.99

Crispin Artisanal Reserve The Saint unfiltered hard apple cider has been repackaged. The kosher certified product is described as a naturally fermented cider that is made with raw and unpasteurized juice of fresh-pressed American apples with Belgian trappist yeast and pure maple syrup which balances the bold flavors of sweet and ripe apples. It is said to provide authentic flavors and unique aromatic notes and retails in a 22-fl. oz. pack.

For more information

International Trade Commissioners can provide Canadian industry with on-the-ground expertise regarding market potential, current conditions and local business contacts, and are an excellent point of contact for export advice.

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Sector Trend Analysis – Cider market trends in the United States and the United Kingdom
Global Analysis Report

Prepared by: François Thériault, Market Analyst

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