Sector Trend Analysis – Beer trends in Japan

Japanese consumers trends

New tax laws

As of June 2017, the government amended the liquor tax to limit retailer discounting of alcoholic drinks. The amendment introduced "Standards for Fair Trading of Alcohol Beverages", which prohibits manufacturers, distributors, and retailers from selling alcoholic drinks at prices below the gross cost of sales on a continuous basis without justifiable reason. This was followed by a rise in prices causing consumers to turn towards alternatives of beer such as spirit-based, ready to drink (RTDs) beverages and non-alcoholic beer. The Japan liquor tax laws are going to be implemented progressively until 2020 and will include a reduction in taxes for mid-priced beer. Even with the expected tax cuts, beer is still expected to decrease in both total volume and retail sales until 2020, when sales values are expected to start rising at a CAGR of 0.4% (Euromonitor, 2019).

Shift towards high-percentage alcoholic beer

In July 2017, Suntory introduced a new high-alcohol economy domestic lager under the Itadaki brand. The new 7-8% alcohol genre of beer appeals to consumers who prefer high-alcohol spirit-based RTDs. High-alcohol beer has never been widely consumed in Japan due to the flavour and taste of high alcoholic beer, but the increasing popularity of high-alcohol RTDs has led to the growth of a potential new consumer base for such products. Suntory designed Itadaki is strongly carbonated with a high-malt/fermented content. During the forecast period, high-alcohol beers could help beer to regain retail sales value that have shifted to high-alcohol spirit-based RTDs (Euromonitor, 2019).

Non-alcoholic beer's boost

Non-alcoholic beer enjoyed growth in 2017, thanks largely to the launch of Kirin Zero ICHI by Kirin Brewery. Kirin Zero ICHI (0.00% alcohol) does not contain any artificial ingredients to either sweeten or add bitterness to the beer. This launch stimulated the non-alcoholic beer market, helping to establish a new base among consumers over 40, who are busy with work and household concerns and tend to enjoy non-alcoholic beer on weekday nights. Non-alcoholic beer was initially designed for consumers who should avoid drinking, such as designated drivers and pregnant women. However, as the market has matured, attitudes have become more diverse and consumers have increasingly enjoyed non-alcoholic beer in and of itself rather than only in situations in which they cannot drink alcohol. Over the forecast period, non-alcoholic beer is expected to see moderate growth as demand diversifies and health-awareness broadens in scope (Euromonitor, 2019).

Japanese beer market

Japan is the fourth largest consumer beer market in the world, with retail value sales of $37.3 billion US in 2017. Volume and value sales of beer in Japan have slightly declined since 2013, as a result of the new liquor tax laws. However, in Japan it is forecasted to have an increase in value sales of beer by 2022, due to implementation of the new tax laws by 2020 reducing the tax rate for mid-priced beers.

Japanese consumers are increasingly looking for 'non-alcoholic', 'imported premium lager', 'imported lager' and 'dark beer' (high-percentage alcoholic beer) with a stronger taste than traditional pale ales.

Mid-priced lagers have registered a negative CAGR through the reviewed period and the trend towards consuming mid-priced lager is expected to continue to decline beyond the forecast period (2018-2022).

Ale and wheat beer are among the beer types with the highest growth at a CAGR of 43.7% and 61.1% respectively. This trend is expected to continue over the forecast period (2018-2022) but at a lower rate than the current growth, it will still lead the growth of sales compared to the other beer categories.

Craft beer market

Craft beer has increased in popularity among millennials, wealthy seniors, and women. The total market share of domestic microbrewers and craft beer imports is estimated to have been less than a 0.5 percent in 2007. However, in 2016, the total volume sold by breweries other than the top four, primarily domestic micro-breweries that specialize in craft beer, accounted for 1.74 percent of the market.

In addition, given that a large share of the imported beer was believed to be craft beer, the United States Agriculture Trade Office (ATO), Tokyo estimates that approximately two percent of all beer is craft beer, a clear increase from a decade ago, despite the decline in total beer consumption. Aside from that, the total production of the four major breweries includes microbrews they produce as well. In contrast to the increasing volume of craft beer produced, however, is the number of Japanese microbrewers in operation, which has fallen from 260 to 174 over the past decade

Canadian craft beer exporters face higher costs for shipping and distribution, and their products generally retail at about two to three times the price of domestic premium beer. As a result, the liquor tax burden as a percentage of the final price is substantially smaller than for domestic beers. The beer tax reform will generally provide less benefit to high quality exported beer to Japan.

Off-trade and on-trade review

Japanese consumers mainly consume beer at home (off-trade)^{Footnote 1}. Even with the decline of value sales, the growth of off-trade consumption has not decreased as much the growth of on-trade consumption since tax laws do not allow for costs of on-trade^{Footnote 2} beers to be lower. However, imported beer still had a significant growth rate in the on-trade market as consumers who dine out are more likely to try foreign beers.

Dark beer has seen a large growth in both the off and on-trade markets as consumers are deviating towards dark beer (both ale and wheat beer). The off-trade market is much higher due to a large presence of domestic beer in retail outlets, such as supermarkets. Non-alcoholic beer will continue to experience positive growth in both the off and on-trade markets. Lager, which accounts for the majority of beer consumption, is experiencing negative growth in both the off and on-trade markets, but the forecast will be positive for mid-priced lager in the off-trade market and for premium and economy lagers in the on-trade market.

Imported lager, non-alcoholic beer, stout, dark beer, flavoured and mid-priced lagers have a higher retail sales in the off-trade category rather than in the on-trade category unlike the other types of beer.

Companies

The four largest domestic Japanese brewers are Asahi Breweries Ltd, Kirin Brewery Co Ltd, Suntory Beer and Sapporo Breweries Ltd.

Sapporo Breweries was the only major beer company that saw growth in market share in 2017. This growth was driven mainly by sales of its premium beer (Sapporo Yebisu) brewed in accordance with the Bavarian purity law, which makes it a higher standard of beer. The Company's mid-priced lager (Sapporo Black Label) has also grown due to its appeal to consumers aged between 20 and 40 (Euromonitor International, 2019).

In 2017, Kirin relaunched its core brand Kirin Ichiban Shibori which has attracted a new base of consumers and increased sales in retail channels. It has also been focused on revitalising its market share in craft beer. Since April 2017, Kirin started to distribute Tap Marché, a small-sized, space-saving craft beer dispenser, to on-trade channels in Tokyo and the surrounding area, with the aim of reaching 1,000 outlets (Euromonitor International, 2019).

Distribution Channels

Store based retailing is the dominant beer distribution channel in Japan, in particular from supermarkets, which control almost half of all off-trade distribution of beer.

In 2017, the off-trade channel experienced a drop of both volume and value, both declining by 1%. Large modern retailers held the majority of off-trade volume sales through large supermarkets. Beer is commonly purchased by the case, thus the home delivery service that many large modern retail outlets offer was attractive to consumers. The on-trade channel was less popular among consumers in 2017. This was mostly due to the new taxes on beer with increased prices leading to consumers being unable to afford on-trade visits (Global Data, 2019).

Foreign beer in Japan

Between 2014-2018, imports of beer have declined at a CAGR of −2.6%. However, even with the most recent decline due to new tax regulations, North American imports are still rising and this gives a unique opportunity for Canadian firms looking to export to Japan. North American countries have had the highest growth in the export of beer to Japan with Canada, Mexico and the United States recording a CAGR of 87.6%, 8.0% and 10.1%, respectively. During this time, Canada had the highest growth of exports of beer to Japan.

In 2014, the top three countries that Japan imported beer from were all European, with Belgium, Ireland and Germany leading the pack. Since then, all but two European countries (Germany at 1.3% and France at 10.2%) have recorded negative growth with the most notable being the Netherlands at −40.9%, indicating a shift in the trend to a stronger presence of North American Beers.

Canada has made strides with exports to Japan rivaling neighbouring Asian countries and larger exporters such as France. The current import data would indicate Canada ranking in 10^th in the EU 28 category surpassing 19 European countries that Japan imports from.

Product launch analysis

In the last five years, 636 new beers were launched in Japan. Out of these, 46 were actually new beers on the shelves of Japanese stores. The majority of the launches have either been relaunches of an existing beer or a new variety/range extension. The number of new packaging is also very significant.

Limited edition was the most popular beer positioning claim, with as many as 79 beers claiming to be limited editions in the year 2018 alone and as many as 21 during the month of December, due to the festive season. This was followed by seasonal, premium and event merchandising at 20, 19 and 1 claims, respectively.

Description of above image

Launch type	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	Total
New variety/range extension	33	55	60	45	39	232
Relaunch	33	39	41	47	59	219
New packaging	19	12	26	31	47	135
New product	6	20	4	6	10	46
New formulation	4	0	0	0	0	4
Total sample	95	126	131	129	155	636

Source: Mintel, 2019

Product launch examples

Limited edition

Aromatic Rouge Beer

Source: Mintel, 2019

Company	Sapporo Breweries
Brand	Yebisu premium
Country	Japan
Date published	December 2018
Launch type	New variety/range extension
Price in local currency	JPY248.00
Price in US dollars	2.19

Yebisu Premium Aromatic Rouge Beer is a new limited edition variety. This unpasteurized beer is said to offer a sweet, rich aroma, a beautiful red colour and a special time. The product retails in a recyclable 350 millilitre (ml) can. Launched on November 20, 2018 open-priced. Also available in a 500ml can, a 6 × 350ml pack and a 6 × 500ml pack.

Blissfully Deep Beer

Source: Mintel, 2019

Company	Sapporo Breweries
Brand	Sapporo Beer Surprise
Country	Japan
Date published	November 2018
Launch type	New packaging
Price in local currency	JPY223.00
Price in US dollars	1.99

Sapporo Beer Surprise Blissfully Deep Beer a limited edition variety that is only available at FamilyMart and Circle K Sunkus. This unpasteurised beer is said to have a deep, rich flavour with vivid bitterness and retails in a 350ml recyclable can. Launched on October 2, 2018 with an recommended retail price of 223 yen. Also available in a 500ml can.

Ethical - environmentally friendly package

Of the 155 new beers launched in 2018, all of them have claimed to have environmental friendly packaging and 154 have claimed to be recyclable, indicating the importance of convenient and green packaging to the population of Japan.

Ryukyu White Ale

Source: Mintel, 2019

Company	Asahi Breweries
Brand	Asahi Orion Craft Series
Country	Japan
Date published	December 2018
Launch type	Relaunch
Price in local currency	JPY213.00
Price in US dollars	1.89
Package type	Can
Package material	Metal aluminium

Asahi Orion Craft Series Ryukyu White Ale has been relaunched. The limited edition product has been brewed in Okinawa, and is described as a Belgian-style fruity ale made with wheat from Okinawa Island, with the spicy aroma of coriander, to make a refreshing flavour reminiscent of Okinawa and the southern Pacific. It retails in a recyclable 350ml can. Launched in November 2018 open-priced.

Kobe Beer

Source: Mintel, 2019

Company	Kirin Brewery
Brand	Kirin Ichiban Shibori
Country	Japan
Date published	December 2018
Launch type	New packaging
Price in local currency	JPY257.00
Price in US dollars	2.27
Package type	Can
Package material	Metal aluminium

Kirin Ichiban Shibori Kobe Beer has been repackaged. This limited edition variety has been manufactured in Kobe, with regionally grown Yamada Nishiki rice and aromatic hops for a refreshing and bright-tasting high quality drink. This product retails in a 350ml recyclable can featuring a design celebrating the 150^th anniversary of Hyogo Prefecture. Launched on November 27, 2018 open-priced.

Tariff

The Comprehensive and Progressive Transpacific Partnership (CPTPP) entered into force on December 30^th, 2018. Tariff preferences under CPTPP apply to goods imported from Canada that meet the rules of origin under this agreement. The Most Favoured Nation (MFN) tariff rates of Japan apply to goods imported from Canada that do not meet the rules of origin (non-originating goods) under CPTPP.

Tariff preferences for key Canadian alcoholic beverages exports to Japan:

• Beer (HS: 2203) - no tariff is implemented;
• Non-alcoholic beer containing added sugar (HS: 220291.10) - tariff will be eliminated by 2023;
• Non-alcoholic beer other (HS: 220291.20) - tariff will be eliminated by 2023.

Opportunities for Canada

Japan is a growing market for Canadian beer, especially of the craft beer variety. Foreign brands, North American in particular, have been doing well in the Japanese beer market even though the market has experienced negative growth in recent years. That being said, when considering such a large market, it is important for companies to make targeted market entry plans, such as the type of beer they would like to export as well as the consumer they would like to target given the trends indicated. Competition in the Japan beer industry is fierce, so in order to be successful, it is important to showcase the unique features of the beer and/or accolades or awards that the beer has received. Space and storage is limited in Japan compared to North America so importers are not often interested in beers that have a shelf-life of under a year. Given the growth of dark beer interest, non-alcoholic beer and the tax law implementation from 2020 applicable to mid-priced beer, these might be more intriguing for Canadian brewers to explore.

It is recommended that companies work closely with a local partner to determine the exact export and retail requirements for the market as local companies have a large presence in the Japanese beer market. Companies interested in pursuing these markets should consider gaining first-hand experience through trade shows and conferences.

On December 30, 2018, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) came into force between Canada, Mexico and the other four Parties that triggered the coming into force of the Agreement (Japan, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand). Access Tariff schedule of Japan (HS2012) (PDF format) to obtain more information on specific Japanese tariff reductions under this agreement.

The CPTPP Agreement, along with NAFTA and free trade agreements with the European Union (CETA) and South Korea (CKFTA), will make Canada the only G7 nation with free trade access to the Americas, Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. All Canadian provinces and territories are expected to benefit from the CPTPP.

For more information

International Trade Commissioners can provide Canadian industry with on-the-ground expertise regarding market potential, current conditions and local business contacts, and are an excellent point of contact for export advice.

• Overview of the Trade Commissioner Service in Japan
• Find a Trade Commissioner

For additional intelligence on this and other markets, the complete library of Global Analysis reports can be found on the International agri-food market intelligence page, arranged by region.

For additional information on Foodex Japan 2019, please contact:

Ben Berry, Deputy Director
Trade Show Strategy and Delivery
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
ben.berry@canada.ca

Sector Trend Analysis – Beer in Japan
Global Analysis Report

Prepared by: Bliss Morgan, (Co-op student) Global Analysis

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