Sector Trend Analysis - Bakery Product Trends in the United Kingdom
October 2017
Executive summary
The United Kingdom (UK) is the tenth largest bakery product market in the world, with retail sales valued at US$15.1 billion within 2016. In the European Union (EU), it ranks in fourth place with a 12.8% market share.
Canada's exports in the UK were estimated at US$ 25.37 million, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.90%. This solid growth trend indicates that the British market is an interesting business opportunity for Canadian exporters.
In 2016, two of the top five international bakery product companies had successful sales in the UK (Kellogg Co and Pladis Ltd). In fact, only these two were able to rank in the top five bakery companies, in third and fifth place respectively, along British companies.
The largest category of baked products is baked goods, representing 57.7% of overall sales value in 2016. Breakfast cereals made up 17.6% and sweet biscuits, 24.7%.
The UK has been experiencing political and economic pressure since the Brexit vote was passed on June 23, 2016. Indeed, the British pound could still fluctuate rapidly throughout the preparations for the UK's departure from the EU, which could impact their imports and exports balance. However, the full effects of Brexit are still theoretical, but could explain some drops in consumer confidence in the future.
Introduction
Rank | Country | Retail sales in US$ (billions) | Market share (%) | 2012-16 CAGR (%) | 2017-21 CAGR (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
World | 437.4 | 100 | 4.14 | 5.06 | |
1 | United States | 86.6 | 19.8 | 1.78 | 2.96 |
2 | China | 33.9 | 7.7 | 9.83 | 6.76 |
3 | Japan | 26.6 | 6.1 | 1.36 | 2.29 |
4 | Brazil | 25.4 | 5.8 | 10.40 | 6.68 |
5 | Italy | 21.4 | 4.9 | −0.46 | 1.79 |
6 | France | 19.5 | 4.5 | 0.92 | 2.77 |
7 | Germany | 19.1 | 4.4 | 1.35 | 1.88 |
8 | Mexico | 18.2 | 4.1 | 3.27 | 4.32 |
9 | Turkey | 17.3 | 3.9 | 8.90 | 12.04 |
10 | United Kingdom | 15.1 | 3.4 | 0.33 | 2.64 |
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Overall, the world is experiencing an increase in demand for bakery products with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.14% from 2012 to 2016. Moreover, this trend is expected to hold for the years of 2017 to 2021. The global consumer trend remains a greater health conscience, as health issues such as obesity are more than ever being emphasized through government campaigns.
The newfound craving for American-style bakery products is believed to be due to the emerging popularity of American coffee shop chains, such as Starbucks. Furthermore, in the current era, it is essential for baking product businesses to release enough variety to target every niche audience, from the health conscious to the occasional indulgers.
Rank | Country | Retail sales in US$ (billions) | Market share (%) | 2012-16 CAGR (%) | 2017-21 CAGR (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
European Union | 117.9 | 100.0 | 0.56 | 2.39 | |
1 | Italy | 21.4 | 18.2 | −0.46 | 1.79 |
2 | France | 19.5 | 16.5 | 0.92 | 2.77 |
3 | Germany | 19.1 | 16.2 | 1.35 | 1.88 |
4 | United Kingdom | 15.1 | 12.8 | 0.33 | 2.64 |
5 | Spain | 6.6 | 5.6 | −1.11 | 1.82 |
6 | Netherlands | 4.2 | 3.6 | 0.00 | 3.25 |
7 | Belgium | 4.2 | 3.6 | 1.87 | 3.32 |
8 | Poland | 3.7 | 3.1 | 0.00 | 2.53 |
9 | Austria | 3.6 | 3.1 | 2.20 | 1.97 |
10 | Romania | 2.8 | 2.4 | 0.91 | 3.39 |
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Although many EU countries feature in the worldwide top ten, the overall CAGR for the EU (0.56%) is nowhere near that of the world (4.14%). This is due to opposing preoccupations and different market dynamics. Europe's consumers differ a lot from country to country, however British and European consumers both craved the same thing in 2016: novelty and foreign flavours. The global health awareness also reached EU consumers. These movements lead to the slowing of many products that were deemed out of style or unaligned with the current health and wellness (HW) trends, which will be addressed in the subsector analysis.
Country | Imports US$ (millions) |
Top Suppliers and Market Share #1 | Top Suppliers and Market Share #2 | Top Suppliers and Market Share #3 | Canada's share |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
United States | 5,173.15 | Canada 46.6% | Mexico 22.3% | Italy 3.23% | 46.6% |
United Kingdom | 2,720.36 | Germany 19.4% | France 18.5% | Belgium 11.2% | 0.93% |
France | 2,538.72 | Belgium 23.3% | Germany 22.5% | Italy 13.5% | 0.05% |
Germany | 2,413.40 | Poland 16.2% | Netherlands 15.6% | France 13.0% | 0.01% |
Canada | 1,954.36 | United States 80.3% | Mexico 4.16% | United Kingdom 2.15% | - |
Belgium | 1,288.88 | France 29.3% | Netherlands 24.1% | Germany 17.1% | 0.14% |
Italy | 1,082.38 | Germany 27.4% | France 18.2% | Austria 12.0% | 0.00% |
Netherlands | 1,079.10 | Belgium 36.8% | Germany 28.1% | France 7.11% | 0.04% |
Spain | 889.29 | Germany 23.2% | France 20.4% | Italy 14.4% | 0.00% |
China | 499.21 | Indonesia 22.1% | Hong Kong 11.1% | Malaysia 10.5% | 0.34% |
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In 2016, Canada exported US$2.273 billion worth of bakery products to the world, while US$2.199 billion went to the United States. A small percentage was exported to the United Kingdom (0.99%), representing US$22.5 million. However, the potential for Canadian exporters in the UK is favourable, as the country has been increasingly importing from Canada with a CAGR of 9.9%, which is a faster growth than the UK global import growth (1.54%).
2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | CAGR % | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UK imports from the World | 2,560 | 2,697 | 2,898 | 2,774 | 2,720 | 1.5 |
UK imports from Canada | 17.39 | 24.64 | 32.89 | 28.74 | 25.37 | 9.9 |
Gross export gap | 2,543 | 2,672 | 2,865 | 2,745 | 2,695 | 1.5 |
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Subsector analysis
Baked goods
Baked goods is the central category of all three bakery products, leading with more than half of the retail sales market share. It has been experiencing a slight decline of 0.86% over the past five years, with retail sales hovering at US$8.5 billion in 2016 versus US$8.8 billion in 2012. This is likely due to higher consumer health awareness and UK government's sensitization programs as a response to high obesity rates, which has driven people away from sweets and carbohydrate-rich foods.
Baked goods | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2012-16 CAGR % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 3,261.3 | 3,217.0 | 3,131.1 | 3,104.7 | 3,098.5 | -1.27 |
Bread | 2,503.1 | 2,454.1 | 2,372.8 | 2,331.1 | 2,311.3 | −1.97 |
Cakes | 539.1 | 542.4 | 535.4 | 547.8 | 559.8 | 0.95 |
Pastries | 133.3 | 136.4 | 140.3 | 142.2 | 143.3 | 1.82 |
Dessert Mixes | 19.3 | 18.9 | 18.8 | 18.6 | 18.3 | −1.32 |
Frozen baked goods | 66.5 | 65.2 | 63.8 | 65.1 | 65.9 | −0.23 |
|
Bread | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2012-16 CAGR % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 2,503.1 | 2,454.1 | 2,372.8 | 2,331.1 | 2,311.3 | −1.97 |
Total Flat Bread | 66.6 | 70.7 | 77.3 | 85.1 | 93.7 | 8.91 |
Flat Bread packaged | 63.2 | 67.2 | 73.8 | 81.6 | 90.1 | 9.27 |
Flat Bread Unpackaged | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.73 |
Total Leavened bread | 2,436.5 | 2,383.4 | 2,295.6 | 2,246.0 | 2,217.6 | -2.33 |
Leavened bread Packaged | 1,948.9 | 1,894.0 | 1,801.0 | 1,744.2 | 1,702.3 | −3.33 |
Leavened bread Unpackaged | 487.6 | 489.5 | 494.6 | 501.8 | 515.3 | 1.39 |
|
Cakes | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2012-16 CAGR % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 539.1 | 542.4 | 535.4 | 547.8 | 559.8 | 0.95 |
Packaged | 315.7 | 316.5 | 307.6 | 317.8 | 328.1 | 0.97 |
Unpackaged | 223.4 | 225.9 | 227.7 | 230.0 | 231.7 | 0.92 |
|
Pastries | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2012-16 CAGR % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 133.3 | 136.4 | 140.3 | 142.2 | 143.3 | 1.82 |
Packaged | 99.2 | 101.1 | 103.9 | 104.4 | 103.8 | 1.14 |
Unpackaged | 34.1 | 35.3 | 36.4 | 37.8 | 39.5 | 3.74 |
|
Baked goods | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2017-21 CAGR % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 3,083.4 | 3,074.0 | 3,076.7 | 3,079.2 | 3,084.6 | 0.01 |
Bread | 2,284.6 | 2,266.0 | 2,260.7 | 2,256.8 | 2,257.1 | −0.30 |
Cakes | 570.5 | 579.2 | 587.1 | 593.2 | 598.3 | 1.20 |
Pastries | 143.6 | 143.6 | 143.5 | 143.5 | 143.2 | −0.07 |
Dessert Mixes | 18.1 | 18.0 | 17.9 | 17.9 | 17.9 | −0.28 |
Frozen baked goods | 66.6 | 67.1 | 67.6 | 67.9 | 68.1 | 0.56 |
|
Bread | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2017-21 CAGR % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 2,284.6 | 2,266.0 | 2,260.7 | 2,256.8 | 2,257.1 | −0.30 |
Total Flat Bread | 100.8 | 106.1 | 110.5 | 114.1 | 116.2 | 3.62 |
Flat Bread packaged | 97.2 | 102.4 | 106.8 | 110.5 | 112.5 | 3.72 |
Flat Bread Unpackaged | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 0.69 |
Total Leavened bread | 2,183.8 | 2,160.0 | 2,150.2 | 2,142.7 | 2,140.9 | -0.49 |
Leavened bread Packaged | 1,656.6 | 1,619.1 | 1,592.5 | 1,564.9 | 1,543.8 | −1.75 |
Leavened bread Unpackaged | 527.2 | 540.8 | 557.7 | 577.7 | 597.1 | 3.16 |
|
Cakes | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2017-21 CAGR % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 570.5 | 579.2 | 587.1 | 593.2 | 598.3 | 1.20 |
Packaged | 335.7 | 341.3 | 346.2 | 350.0 | 353.3 | 1.29 |
Unpackaged | 234.8 | 237.9 | 241.0 | 243.2 | 244.9 | 1.06 |
|
Pastries | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2017-21 CAGR % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 143.6 | 143.6 | 143.5 | 143.5 | 143.2 | −0.07 |
Packaged | 102.5 | 101.1 | 99.6 | 98.4 | 97.1 | −1.34 |
Unpackaged | 41.1 | 42.6 | 43.8 | 45.0 | 46.1 | 2.91 |
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Globalisation and exposure to non-traditional cuisine has been inciting the British into trying a multitude of ethnic breads like pitas, naans, and tortillas instead of traditional foods like packaged leavened bread. In fact, flat packaged bread has been massively growing in popularity with a 9.27% CAGR, thanks to its fresh, trendy and health-friendly appeal.
On the other hand, leavened bread, which is perceived as being old-fashioned, has dropped 3.33% in sales volume.
Companies | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Premier Foods Plc | 14.6 | 13.6 | 12.9 | 11.9 | 11.6 |
Warburtons Ltd | 11.9 | 12.1 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 10.9 |
Associated British Foods Plc | 7.7 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 6.0 |
Mondelez International Inc | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
Pladis Ltd | - | - | - | - | 1.0 |
Artisanal | 23.3 | 24.4 | 26.1 | 27.4 | 28.2 |
Private label | 23.9 | 24.2 | 24.8 | 24.9 | 24.7 |
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Artisanal baked goods are growing in demand due to an increasing awareness of product quality, capitalising 28.2% of retail sales market shares. British consumers are looking for authentic, high-quality and unknown flavours. Likewise, there is a battle of quality perceptions between artisanal and retailer products, the latter fighting back with on-site bakery sections. Among the top five companies, only Mondelez International and Pladis are multinationals, which shows the British value locality over label.
In fact, there is growing competition between multinationals and artisanal sellers, in addition to private labels, as both of the artisanal and private label sectors are gaining a significant amount of market shares. The main strategy used by multinationals in 2016 was strong marketing campaigns revolved around health and wellness, as well as introducing creative flavours. For example, Warburton's leveraged their ranking through high-profile advertising campaigns, while Premier Foods exploited the snacking trend and released snack-sized versions of their packaged cakes.
Breakfast cereals
The popularisation of the on-the-go lifestyle has been negatively affecting this category's demand, as consumers no longer depend on cereal for breakfast, making it the smallest sector in terms of sales value. In fact, in 2012, retail sales hit US$ 2.5 billion whereas in 2016, they reached US$ 2.6 billion, scoring a 2012-2016 retail sales CAGR of 0.97%. One reason behind this slow growth is the recent popularity of discounters, which force prices down for retailers.
Breakfast cereals | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2012-16 CAGR % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 526.3 | 527.6 | 531.5 | 538.6 | 547.5 | 0.99 |
Hot cereals | 77.9 | 84.9 | 92.5 | 99.7 | 106.6 | 8.16 |
Ready-to-eat cereals | 448.5 | 442.7 | 439.0 | 438.9 | 440.9 | −0.43 |
|
Ready-to-eat cereals | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2012-16 CAGR % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 448.5 | 442.7 | 439.0 | 438.9 | 440.9 | −0.43 |
Children's breakfast cereals | 112.8 | 110.5 | 109.1 | 110.3 | 111.3 | −0.33 |
Family breakfast cereals | 335.7 | 332.2 | 329.9 | 328.7 | 329.6 | −0.46 |
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Family breakfast cereals | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2012-16 CAGR % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 335.7 | 332.2 | 329.9 | 328.7 | 329.6 | −0.46 |
Flakes | 196.4 | 192.4 | 189.3 | 187.1 | 186.3 | −1.31 |
Muesli and granola | 38.6 | 40.1 | 42.0 | 44.1 | 47.1 | 5.10 |
Other ready-to-eat cereals | 100.7 | 99.7 | 98.6 | 97.4 | 96.3 | −1.11 |
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The effects of the modern busy lifestyle are felt by the relatively low retail volume CAGR of 0.99%. Despite this result, hot cereals, muesli and granola were the big winners of this category with CAGRs of 8.16% and 5.10%, respectively. These products capitalized on the recent health and wellness (HW) trends in an impressive way. In fact, as parents grow weary of sugary cereals and are turning to more natural and earthy options like oatmeal and muesli for their children, cereal product producers are trying to recreate the same health appeal by cutting back sugar contents or launching high protein products.
Breakfast cereals | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2017-21 CAGR % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 555.4 | 562.3 | 568.5 | 576.4 | 585.1 | 1.31 |
Hot cereals | 113.0 | 118.8 | 124.6 | 131.5 | 139.2 | 5.35 |
Ready-to-eat cereals | 442.4 | 443.5 | 444.0 | 444.8 | 445.8 | 0.19 |
|
Ready-to-eat cereals | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2017-21 CAGR % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 442.4 | 443.5 | 444.0 | 444.8 | 445.8 | 0.19 |
Children's breakfast cereals | 112.5 | 113.3 | 113.6 | 114.1 | 114.6 | 0.46 |
Family breakfast cereals | 329.9 | 330.2 | 330.4 | 330.7 | 331.2 | 0.10 |
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Family breakfast cereals | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2017-21 CAGR % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 329.9 | 330.2 | 330.4 | 330.7 | 331.2 | 0.10 |
Flakes | 185.2 | 184.4 | 183.3 | 182.4 | 181.7 | −0.48 |
Muesli and granola | 49.5 | 51.6 | 53.4 | 55.0 | 56.5 | 3.36 |
Other ready-to-eat cereals | 95.2 | 94.2 | 93.7 | 93.3 | 93.1 | −0.56 |
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In the next years, the demand for less processed and premium products is expected to keep rising as an effect of the HW trend. This will maintain the high growth of muesli and granola products in addition to that of hot cereals. Some of the other cereal types are expected to recover from their 2012 to 2016 negative growths, as companies adjust to the current health and wellness consumption trends.
Companies | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kellogg Co | 29.8 | 29.2 | 28.2 | 27.2 | 25.8 |
Bright Food (Group) Co Ltd | 13.5 | 13.1 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 13.4 |
Cereal Partners Worldwide SA | 13.0 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 12.9 | 12.8 |
PepsiCo Inc. | 6.9 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 9.9 |
Associated British Foods Plc | 3.5 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 6.6 |
Private label | 22.9 | 23.3 | 23.6 | 23.7 | 23.7 |
Source: Euromonitor International, 2017 |
Kellogg remained the main player in the cereals category with a 25.8% market share in 2016, despite the 4% loss in market shares due to the decline in RTE cereal. Also, PepsiCo has been gaining territory thanks to its hot cereals selection, with a 3% increase in market shares from 2012 to 2016. Among the top five, Associated British Foods Plc was the only domestic company, while the other four were multinationals.
Biscuits and snacks
The biscuits and snack category is the second-largest and the most rapidly growing category, with US$ 4.0 billion in retail sales in 2016 and CAGR of 2.97%. Energy bars and fruit and nut bars saw the largest increase in volume sales, as the products successfully aligned themselves as legitimate HW and on-the-run goods. Sweet biscuits haven't performed as well as expected, partly due to a critical flooding that affected the main biscuit supplier, United Biscuits (Euromonitor, 2017). The evolving health and wellness trend also threatens the biscuit industry, as British consumers are concerned about their consumption of fat and sugar. Companies will have to stay attuned and innovate according to consumer preoccupations to stay competitive and capitalize on this sector.
Biscuits and snacks | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2012-16 CAGR % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 515.9 | 535.2 | 540.3 | 557.1 | 564.0 | 2.3 |
Fruit snacks | 19.0 | 20.4 | 21.8 | 23.0 | 23.9 | 5.9 |
Snack bars | 41.6 | 40.7 | 41.3 | 42.9 | 44.9 | 1.9 |
Sweet biscuits | 455.3 | 474.1 | 477.1 | 491.1 | 495.1 | 2.1 |
|
Fruit snacks | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2012-16 CAGR % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 19.0 | 20.4 | 21.8 | 23.0 | 23.9 | 5.9 |
Dried fruit | 16.6 | 17.6 | 18.3 | 19.1 | 19.9 | 4.6 |
Processed fruit snacks | 2.4 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 14.3 |
|
Snack bars | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2012-16 CAGR % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 41.6 | 40.7 | 41.3 | 42.9 | 44.9 | 1.9 |
Cereal bars | 30.9 | 29.3 | 28.2 | 28.3 | 28.4 | −2.1 |
Energy bars | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 25.0 |
Fruit and nut bars | 4.4 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 18.9 |
Other snack bars | 5.5 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 0.0 |
|
Sweet biscuits | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2012-16 CAGR % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 455.3 | 474.1 | 477.1 | 491.1 | 495.1 | 2.1 |
Chocolate coated biscuits | 183.3 | 181.5 | 175.9 | 179.2 | 177.0 | −0.9 |
Cookies | 33.6 | 34.1 | 34.8 | 35.9 | 36.6 | 2.2 |
Filled biscuits | 100.3 | 98.9 | 96.3 | 95.4 | 94.5 | −1.5 |
Plain biscuits | 130.4 | 151.9 | 162.2 | 172.9 | 179.2 | 8.3 |
Wafers | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 0.3 |
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It is interesting to compare the growth of processed fruit snacks and fruit and nut bar. Processed fruit saw an increase in sales volume of 14.33%, where fruit and nut bars grew 18.92%. Both products grew in a substantial way due to their strong appeal to health-conscious consumers. In fact, they are in direct competition. However, the fruit and nut bar has the advantage of extra protein, and is thus a more inclusive product. Energy bars have the same inclusive nature, as they can touch to every health claim from high-protein to high-fiber, while being vegan, gluten-free or organic. They can also pertain to athletes, working adults or young kids.
Biscuits and snacks | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2017-21 CAGR % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 565.6 | 563.7 | 562.5 | 562.1 | 561.9 | -0.16 |
Fruit snacks | 24.6 | 25.1 | 25.6 | 26.0 | 26.3 | 1.68 |
Snack bars | 46.4 | 47.4 | 48.2 | 48.8 | 49.2 | 1.48 |
Sweet biscuits | 494.6 | 491.2 | 488.7 | 487.3 | 486.4 | −0.42 |
|
Fruit snacks | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2017-21 CAGR % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 24.6 | 25.1 | 25.6 | 26.0 | 26.3 | 1.68 |
Dried fruit | 20.5 | 20.9 | 21.2 | 21.6 | 21.8 | 1.55 |
Processed fruit snacks | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.35 |
|
Snack bars | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2017-21 CAGR % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 46.4 | 47.4 | 48.2 | 48.8 | 49.2 | 1.48 |
Cereal bars | 28.5 | 28.6 | 28.6 | 28.7 | 28.7 | 0.17 |
Energy bars | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 6.14 |
Fruit and nut bars | 9.7 | 10.3 | 10.8 | 11.1 | 11.2 | 3.66 |
Other snack bars | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 1.74 |
|
Sweet biscuits | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2017-21 CAGR % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 494.6 | 491.2 | 488.7 | 487.3 | 486.4 | −0.42 |
Chocolate coated biscuits | 171.5 | 164.1 | 157.8 | 152.5 | 147.8 | −3.65 |
Cookies | 37.5 | 38.3 | 39.2 | 40.2 | 41.1 | 2.32 |
Filled biscuits | 93.5 | 92.4 | 91.6 | 90.9 | 90.2 | −0.89 |
Plain biscuits | 184.4 | 188.7 | 192.5 | 196.2 | 199.7 | 2.01 |
Wafers | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | −0.33 |
|
Companies | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pladis Ltd | - | - | - | - | 17.1 |
Mondelez International Inc | 7.9 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 8.3 |
Kellogg Co | 5.5 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
Whitworth Bros Ltd | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.2 |
Burton's Foods Ltd | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.7 |
Private label | 25.3 | 25.1 | 25.4 | 25.5 | 25.5 |
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While two multinationals figure among the top five (Mondelez International and Kellogg), it is Pladis Ltd (United Biscuits), a domestic company, that held the most market shares in 2016. Indeed, the company's strength in that year was their heavy focus on marketing. The best bet for biscuits companies that want to have successful sales in the UK is to align their products with HW trends while keeping prices affordable, as these items have traditionally been available at low cost.
New product launch analysis
According to the Mintel Global New Products Database (GNPD), 1787 products were launched in the baked products market in 2016. The most popular launch type was “New Variety” with 799 products, followed by “New Packaging” (414), “New Product” (312), “Relaunch” (227) and “New Formulation” with 35 goods. Within the new products, the top claims were vegetarian, ethical - environmentally friendly package, no additives/preservatives, social media, and low/no/reduced trans-fat. The vegetarian claim was used in 73.1% of new launches in 2016.
White sugar, salt and wheat flour were used in 68.9%, 65.1% and 64.0% of this year's launches. In the last year, plum, pink salt and cocoa beans saw the largest growth, with each evaluated at 1300%, 1200% and 900% in all bakery product categories. This is given that in the previous year only one product of each ingredient was released (Mintel, 2017).
While the total launches origins cover many countries, it is noticed that the UK's share is largely dominant (40.0%) which explains the dominance of domestic companies in all three categories. The following foreign companies were France (3.19%), Italy (2.80%), Germany (1.73%) and the Netherlands (1.34%).
Over the past five years, the leading type of launch was “New Variety”, accumulating 3,918 products and representing 45.6% of the total 5-year sample. An explanation for this may be processors' desire to keep up with consumer trends by modifying products that are familiar in ways that align with current health and wellness concerns, such as reducing sugar or fat consumption.
2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 1,847 | 1,670 | 1,401 | 1,896 | 1,787 |
Source: Mintel Global New Product Database, 2017 |
Claims | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vegetarian | 997 | 1,115 | 952 | 1,377 | 1,307 |
Ethical - environmentally friendly package | 503 | 630 | 531 | 849 | 825 |
No additives/preservatives | 402 | 492 | 381 | 529 | 456 |
Social media | 189 | 176 | 162 | 272 | 267 |
Low/no/reduced trans-fat | 72 | 136 | 193 | 312 | 345 |
Source: Mintel Global New Product Database, 2017 |
Ingredients | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
White sugar | 807 | 1,113 | 965 | 1,383 | 1,232 |
Salt | 837 | 983 | 942 | 1,263 | 1,163 |
Wheat flour | 830 | 1,016 | 881 | 1,239 | 1,143 |
Emulsifiers | 553 | 735 | 665 | 958 | 842 |
Food acids | 564 | 661 | 602 | 908 | 825 |
Source: Mintel Global New Product Database, 2017 |
Packaging | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Flexible | 1,310 | 1,151 | 990 | 1,346 | 1,251 |
Carton | 135 | 121 | 86 | 153 | 161 |
Tub | 62 | 89 | 60 | 76 | 73 |
Clam-pack | 75 | 42 | 36 | 47 | 41 |
Flexible sachet | 62 | 29 | 26 | 62 | 46 |
Source: Mintel Global New Product Database, 2017 |
Components | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Unflavoured/plain | 533 | 455 | 386 | 478 | 439 |
Chocolate | 271 | 222 | 174 | 282 | 241 |
Chocolate (Milk) | 82 | 104 | 77 | 90 | 98 |
Butter | 52 | 47 | 54 | 82 | 103 |
Fruit | 49 | 65 | 44 | 57 | 47 |
Source: Mintel Global New Product Database, 2017 |
New product examples
Sweet and Tasty Oat Bread
Company | Brand | Country | Store Name | Store Type | Product source | Launch Type | Price in US Dollars |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polarbröd | Polarbröd | UK | Ocado | Internet/Mail Order | Shopper | New Product | $3.91 |
Polarbröd Sweet & Tasty Oat Bread, made with Polfärskt/Polarmetoden method, is rich in whole grain and a source of fibre. The product, which is free from milk, lactose, additives and preservatives, retails in a 400g pack containing two units.
Scrummy Biscuits with Wispa Filling
Company | Brand | Country | Store Name | Store Type | Product source | Launch Type | Price in US Dollars |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mondelez | Cadbury Wispa | Ireland | Dunnes | Department Store | Shopper | New Packaging | $2.94 |
Cadbury Wispa Scrummy Biscuits with Wispa Filling have been repackaged in an updated 124g on-the-go pack, containing four sachets with two biscuits each. The biscuits are filled and coated with velvety Wispa chocolate and are suitable for vegetarians. The product is said to be ideal for lunchboxes or handbags.
Brownie Mini Muffins
Company | Brand | Store Name | Store Type | Product source | Launch Type | Price in US Dollars |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Waitrose | Waitrose Party | Waitrose | Supermarket | Shopper | New Variety/Range Extension | $7.54 |
Waitrose Party Brownie Mini Muffins are now available. This vegetarian product comprises dark chocolate brownies with a rich gooey centre studded with white chocolate pieces. It is suitable for freezing, can be microwaved, cooks in 12 minutes, and retails in a recyclable 360g pack.
Lemon Drizzle Squares
Company | Brand | Country of Manufacture | Import Status | Store Name | Store Type | Product source | Launch Type | Price in US Dollars |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
General Mills | Fibre One 90 Calorie | Spain | Imported product | Tesco Extra | Mass Merchandise/Hypermarket | Shopper | New Product | $4.36 |
Fibre One 90 Calorie Lemon Drizzle Squares contain only 90 calories per square. These convenient, high fibre baked snacks are low in fat and retail in a 120g pack containing 5 x 24g units.
Bhaji Bread
Company | Brand | Store Name | Store Type | Product source | Launch Type | Price in US Dollars |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Asda | Asda Baker's Selection | Asda | Mass Merchandise/Hypermarket | Shopper | New Product | $2.11 |
Asda Baker's Selection Bhaji Bread retails in a pack containing one unit.
Wafer Rolls with Hazelnut and Cocoa Cream
Company | Brand | Country of Manufacture | Imported product | Store Name | Store Type | Product source | Launch Type | Price in US Dollars |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Papadopoulos | Papadopoulos Caprice | Greece | Imported product | Waitrose | Supermarket | Shopper | New Product | $4.53 |
Papadopoulos Caprice Wafer Rolls with Hazelnut and Cocoa Cream can be enjoyed on-the-go or frozen for a cool treat. The product retails in a 250g pack featuring the Facebook logo.
Opportunities for Canada
The Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) will help provide opportunities for Canadian producers, processors and exporters to reach the EU's 510 million consumers.
CETA can support you by:
- Reducing or eliminating tariffs on products imported into the EU
- Improving and expanding market access for Canadian products
- Providing a competitive advantage with preferential access to EU markets
Find more details:
CETA for agri-food exporters
For more information
International Trade Commissioners can provide Canadian industry with on-the-ground expertise regarding market potential, current conditions and local business contacts, and are an excellent point of contact for export advice.
For additional intelligence on this and other markets, the complete library of Global Analysis reports can be found on the International Market Intelligence page, arranged by region:
For additional information on ANUGA 2017, please contact:
- Ben Berry, Deputy Director
- Trade Show Strategy and Delivery
- Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
- ben.berry@canada.ca
Related reports
- Bakery products in Germany
- Healthy biscuits, snacks and snack bar trends in the UK
- Bakery products in Italy
Resources
- Euromonitor International, 2017.
- Euromonitor International, May 2017. Baked Goods in the United Kingdom
- Euromonitor International, May 2017. Breakfast Cereals in the United Kingdom
- Euromonitor International, May 2017. Health and Wellness in the United Kingdom
- Euromonitor International, May 2017. Sweet Biscuits, Snack bars and Fruit Snacks in the United Kingdom
- Mintel Global New Products Database, 2017.
- STATISTA, 2017. Starbucks – Statistics & Facts
- Webb, Dominic. CETA: the EU-Canada free trade agreement
Sector Trend Analysis - Bakery Product Trends in the UK - Global Analysis Report
Prepared by: Amina Qacha, Market Analyst (Co-op student)
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