Market Overview – Japan

Production

Rice is Japan's primary domestic crop, with production representing 9.8 million tonnes in 2017. The production volume of rice has decreased by a CAGR of −2.4% between 2013 to 2017. Sugar cane and onions attained the highest CAGR of 5.9% and 3.3% respectively, while tangerines, mandarins, clementines and satsumas experienced the largest decline in CAGR of −4.6% during the same period.

Poultry (livestock/ head) was Japan's largest livestock production with 313.8 million chickens in 2017 and a CAGR of 0.6% from 306.4 million in 2013. Pigs, cattle and goats (livestock/head) decreased by (−0.9%), (−1.5%) and (−1.1%), respectively during the same period.

Poultry is Japan's primary meat, producing 2.2 million tonnes in 2017 and a CAGR of 1.6% between 2013 to 2017. Horse and pork meat production declined in growth by −12.0% and −0.7% respectively, while growth in beef and meat nowhere else specified production remained unchanged (0.0%), during the same period.

Trade

Japan is a net importer of agri-food and seafood products. In 2019, Japan's agri-food and seafood trade deficit was US$67.3 billion with imports valued at US$74.9 billion, and exports at US$7.6 billion. Canada was Japan's fifth largest supplier of agri-food and seafood products with values of US$4.3 billion in 2019, representing a 5.7% market share. Top imports from Canada in 2019 were canola seed, fresh or chilled pork, wheat, soy beans and frozen pork meat.

Japan's agri-food and seafood imports have increased slightly by a CAGR of 0.4% between 2015 and 2019. In 2019, top agri-food and seafood imports from the world were corn, frozen pork, chicken meat or offal, fresh or chilled beef and fresh or chilled pork. Key supplying countries were the United States (U.S), China, Thailand, Australia and Canada.

Japan's processed food and beverage imports were valued at US$50.9 billion in 2019, with Canada accounting for 4.4% of that market. In 2019, the U.S., China, Thailand, Australia and Canada were the largest suppliers of processed food to Japan accounting for 51.7% of the market. Japan's processed agri-food imports increased by 3.1% between 2015 and 2019.

In 2019, Japan's top agri-food and seafood exports were food preparations n.e.s., frozen molluscs, prepared sauces, bread & pastry, and cider. Top countries that imported these products were the U.S, Hong Kong, China, Thailand and Canada. Canada attained a 1.3% import market share (US$1.8 million) of Japan products in 2019.

Retail sales

The Japanese food and beverage market is highly import based as Japan's agricultural sector is not able to adequately sustain the demand for agricultural products with current domestic production. The Japanese food and beverage retail industry includes supermarkets, general merchandise stores, department stores, convenience stores, drugstores and the internet. Supermarkets are the main distribution channel, while convenience stores are increasing their presence in the retail segment.

Demographic and lifestyle changes such as urbanization, an ageing population, the increasing number of single households and dual-income families have contributed to the demand for convenient and

ready-to-eat meals (sozai). Additionally, there is a demand for western-style meals with larger quantities of meat, eggs, milk, milk products and fats, single-serving sizes, and processed and frozen foods.^{Footnote 1}

The food and beverage (including non-alcoholic & alcoholic) retail sector in Japan experienced reasonable growth over the last 10 years (2015-24). Food and non-alcoholic beverages each attained a CAGR of 2.5% and alcoholic beverages attained a growth rate of 3.2% in the historic period; growth that is expected to continue over the coming years, albeit at a lower rate.

In the food sector, overall retail sales were valued at US$174.5 billion in 2019 and are forecast to reach US$196.7 billion in 2024. In 2019, the bakery and cereals category attained the highest retail sales worth US$24.7 billion, followed by the meat category valued at US$24.4 billion. The soup and meat substitutes categories attained the highest CAGR's in the historic 5 year period (5.2% and 4.7%), while the soup and dairy and soy food category will reach 4.6% and 4.3% respectively, in the forecast period. In the forecast period, the meat sector is expected to experience the largest decline in growth (−9.5%) as retail values decrease from US$3.3 billion in 2018 to US$2.3 billion by 2023. Overall, each category within the food sector is expected to experience an increase in growth, at varying rates, during both periods.

In the beverage sector, non-alcoholic beverages like hot and soft drinks, attained cumulative retail sales of US$48.6 billion in 2019. Meanwhile, the beer & cider, spirits and wine beverage category had cumulative retail sales valued at US$38.5 billion. Similarly in the forecast period, non-alcoholic beverages are expected to have larger retail sales than the alcoholic beverage sector as retail sales are expected to increase by 2.0% (US$54.1 billion) by the end of 2024. In the non-alcoholic beverage category, soft drinks over the 10 year period have and are expected to continue to yield higher retail sales over hot drinks with growth rates of soft drinks attaining a CAGR of 2.1% and 1.6% respectively. Of note, beer and cider in the alcohol beverage category attained the largest retail sales of US$18.1 billion in 2019 and is expected to grow by 1.7% to US$19.8 billion in 2023. The spirits category, however, is expected to grow by 2.7% by the end of 2024, as retail sales achieve US$20.4 billion and surpass those to be attained by the beer and cider category (US$19.8 billion).

Health and wellness food products

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF), over 70% of Japanese consumers prefer to live a healthy lifestyle. Consumption for products that augment nutrients such as vitamins and minerals are increasing. There are nearly 1,000 individual products approved as FOSHU (Foods for Specified Health Uses) and 1,500 items as "foods with function claims." According to Fuji Keizai, the top growing domestic processed foods are chicken salad (ready-to-eat chicken breast packaged in small portions), amazake (a traditional sweet fermented rice drink), tomato drinks, and rice snacks. These particular choices of domestically processed foods reflect the consumers' increased consciousness toward maintaining health and beauty. Key words often identified on packaging used to sell these products are "low-calorie," "low-fat," "high-protein," and "sugar-free", as cited in the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA): Japan Food Processing Ingredients (PDF).

The health and wellness food products sector grew by a CAGR of 3.6% from 2016 to 2019 and is expected to increase slightly to 3.7% from 2020 to 2023. The Naturally Healthy (NH) attribute category is the largest with retail sales of US$9.3 billion in 2019 and is expected to remain the largest attribute category in the forecast period with retail sales of US$9.9 billion in 2023.

The functional and fortified attribute category displayed moderate growth (9.2%) respectively for both periods. In 2019, the organic accredited category attained retail sales valued at US$328.9 million and represented a 1.9% market share. The organic category is expected to attain marginal growth (1.9%) as retail sales are forecast to attain US$357.2 million by 2023.

Foodservice

In 2019, the total sales value of Japan's foodservice market was US$270.3 billion and is expected to increase by 0.9% in the forecasted period with value sales of US$279.8 billion in 2023.

The restaurant sector is the largest of Japan's foodservice segments. Busier lifestyles in conjunction with rising disposable incomes make eating out popular in Japan. The sector includes a wide variety of operators, ranging from American-style fast food chains to more traditional family-owned, single-outlet restaurants. The selection of restaurants and menu items available continues to expand as Japanese consumers are interested in trying new cuisines. Foods from Europe, Asia, Australia, and the Americas are becoming increasingly popular, partly due to the large number of Japanese traveling abroad every year.^{Footnote 2}

Within the restaurant subsector, full service restaurants (FSR) recorded the largest sales of US$97.1 billion in 2019, followed by quick service restaurants (QSR, fast food) at US$30.1 billion. These top two outlets accounted for 52.3% (US$141.3 billion) of the total sales within the foodservice market (US$270.3 billion). Growth in both outlets was measurable at a CAGR of 1.0% (FSRs) and 2.1% (QSRs), respectively from 2016 to 2019 and is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 0.5% and 2.3%, accordingly from 2020 to 2023. Coffee and tea shops and QSR outlets are expected to grow at minimal rates within the forecast period, with the exception of FSRs and ice cream parlour outlets, which are anticipated to attain slightly lower growth rates.

Opportunities for Canada

The benefits of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)

The CPTPP gives Canadian agriculture and agri-food products preferential market access to key export markets, including Japan. Under the agreement, tariffs will be eliminated or reduced on a wide range of Canadian exports for the agricultural sector, including meat, grains, pulses, maple syrup, wines and spirits, seafood, and other agri-food products.

Japan has eliminated tariffs on close to 32% of tariff lines on agriculture and agri-food products after entering into force on December 30^th, 2018. A further 9% of tariff lines will provide preferential tariff treatment through permanent quotas and country-specific quotas for Canada. The remaining tariff lines will provide tariff elimination or reductions over a period of up to 20 years, or reductions of the in-quota or out-of-quota tariffs. Read the Global Affairs Canada overview of the CPTPP and Canada's agriculture and agri-food sector for more information.

One of the first steps before entering the market is to determine whether or not a product is authorized for sale in Japan. There could be restrictions due to phytosanitary or food safety related concerns that can prevent a product from being imported. Products must meet Japanese regulations for food ingredients, especially with regard to food additives.

Exporters are strongly recommended to work with the local import agent, distributor, and the end-user to make sure the products are in compliance with Japanese regulations and all proper documentation has been completed. For more information, please consult the Exporting food out of Canada (Canadian Food Inspection Agency), Step-by-Step Guide to Exporting (The Canadian Trade Commissioner Service) and Standards and Regulations (Japan External trade Organization).

Exporters should also determine the import classification and tariff rate for products. The Tariff Finder tool can assist exporters in determining tariff information for specific products and countries where Canada has a free trade agreement. Additionally, Japan Customs has a website for requesting an advance ruling on tariff classifications, which is available to importers and related parties.

It is worth noting that CanExport provides funding to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to reach export markets and execute strategic marketing projects such as participation in trade shows. Interested Canadian SMEs are encouraged to apply for this funding. If you have questions about exporting your agriculture or food products, or are looking for support, please contact the Market Access Secretariat, Agri-food and Agriculture Canada at aafc.mas-sam.aac@canada.ca.

For more information

International Trade Commissioners can provide Canadian industry with on-the-ground expertise regarding market potential, current conditions and local business contacts, and are an excellent point of contact for export advice.

• Overview of Trade Commissioner Services in Japan
• Find a Trade Commissioner

For additional intelligence on this and other markets, the complete library of Global Analysis reports can be found on the International agri-food market intelligence page, arranged by region.

For additional information on Foodex Japan, please contact:

Ben Berry, Deputy Director
Trade Show Strategy and Delivery
Agriculture and agri-food Canada
ben.berry@canada.ca

Market Overview – Japan
Global Analysis Report

Prepared by: Laurie Bernardi, International Market Research Analyst

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