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Market Overview – Indonesia

June 2020

Market snapshot

Indonesia is the fourth most populous country in the world at 266.9 million people in 2019, and is expected to reach 277.4 million by 2023. 60% of the population is on the island of Java, one of the most densely populated areas in the world.

Indonesia is the largest economy in Southeast Asia with a GDP of US$1,133.8 billion in 2019.

Oil palm fruit is Indonesia's primary domestic crop, followed by rice. Volume production of oil palm fruit declined by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of −4.5% from 2014 to 2018. Chicken is Indonesia's primary meat, producing 2.5 million tonnes in 2018 and a CAGR of 7.0% between 2014 to 2018

Indonesia is a net exporter of agri-food and seafood products. In 2019, Indonesia's agri-food and seafood trade surplus was Can$16.2 billion with imports valued at Can$26.8 billion, and Can$43.0 billion in exports. Indonesia's agri-food and seafood imports increased at a CAGR of 6.7% from 2015 to 2019.

Retail sales for food in Indonesia experienced moderate growth as sales increased 8.2% from US$22.3 billion in 2015 to US$30.6 billion in 2019; a trend that is expected to continue in the forecast period, albeit at a slightly lower rate of 7.6%, as sales increase to US$44.4 billion by 2024.

The health and wellness food sector increased by a growth rate of 8.1% from US$1.8 billion in retail sales in 2016 to US$2.3 billion in 2019, a trend that is expected to continue at a lower growth rate of 6.3%, as retail sales increase to US$2.9 billion by 2023.

Full service restaurants (FSR) is the largest foodservice channel in Indonesia, accounting for 86.5% of total revenue for all restaurant channels in 2019. This reflects the expectation that Indonesians continue to be traditional and enjoy a sit-down meal in a restaurant, as well as the large impact of tourists and meetings, incentives, conferences and events (MICE) consumers.

Consumer profile

As the fourth most populous nations in the world and the largest in the ASEAN region, the country's population stood at 266.9 million people in 2019, and is expected to reach 277.4 million by 2023, an increase of around 10.5 million. Indonesia is made up of a diverse network of islands where 60% of the population is on Java, one of the most densely populated areas in the world. The island of Sumatra contains some of the most significant population clusters as well, particularly in the south near the Selat Sunda, and along the northeastern coast near Medan. The cities of Makassar (Sulawesi), Banjarmasin (Kalimantan) are also heavily populated.

Indonesia is the largest economy in Southeast Asia with a GDP of US$1,133.8 billion in 2019.

The country remains fairly young, with a median age of 30.8 in 2019. This reflects the receptive, active generation of Indonesians currently leading the charge in the country's growth. Over 60s currently make up just 11.2% of the population, expected to reach 13.0% by 2023.

Production

Oil palm fruit, for crushing into palm oil, is Indonesia's primary domestic crop, followed by rice. Volume production of oil palm fruit declined by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of −4.5% from 2014 to 2018. Chicken is Indonesia's primary meat, producing 2.5 million tonnes in 2018 and a CAGR of 7.0% between 2014 to 2018. The remaining meats, beef and pork remained stable with no growth, while offals, edible beef declined in growth by −3.3% during the same period. Livestock production is also dominated by chickens, followed by ducks, goats and sheep. Chicken is the dominant protein type throughout the country, being fairly cheap and with many Indonesians abstaining from pork.

Top ten crops produced in Indonesia, measured in '000 tonnes, historic
Crops 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CAGR* % 2014-2018
Oil palm fruit 138.7 148.7 116.0 114.6 115.3 −4.5
Rice, paddy 70.8 75.4 79.4 81.1 83.0 4.1
Oil, palm 29.3 31.1 31.5 34.9 40.6 12.4
Maize[1] 19.0 19.6 23.6 28.9 30.3 12.4
Sugar cane 25.8 25.3 23.6 21.9 21.7 −4.2
Coconuts 18.3 16.6 18.0 18.7 18.6 0.4
Cassava 23.4 21.8 20.3 19.1 16.1 −8.9
Palm kernels 8.1 7.8 8.9 9.9 10.3 6.2
Bananas 6.9 9.5 7.0 7.2 7.3 1.4
Mangoes 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.6 3.1 3.5

Source: FAOSTAT Agricultural Production, 2020

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

1: Crops also produced in Canada

Top meat production in Indonesia, measured in '000 tonnes, historic
Meat (tonnes) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CAGR* % 2014-2018
Meat, chicken 1,939.2 2,030.9 2,300.8 2,258.2 2,544.1 7.0
Meat, beef 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0
Meat, pork 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0
Offals, edible, beef 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.07 −3.3

Source: FAOSTAT Agricultural Production, 2020

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Top livestock produced in Indonesia, head, historic
Livestock 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CAGR* % 2014-2018
Chickens (1000 Head) 1,865,126.0 1,968,642.0 2,088,079.0 2,175,612.0 2,384,147.0 6.3
Ducks (1000 Head) 45,268.0 45,322.0 47,424.0 49,709.0 60,011.0 7.3
Goats 18,639,533 19,012,974 17,847,197 18,410,379 18,721,000 0.1
Sheep 16,091,838 17,024,685 15,716,667 16,462,274 17,398,000 2.0

Source: FAOSTAT Agricultural Production, 2020

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Trade

Indonesia is a net exporter of agri-food and seafood products. In 2019, Indonesia's agri-food and seafood trade surplus was Can$16.2 billion with imports valued at Can$26.8 billion, and Can$43.0 billion in exports. Indonesia's agri-food and seafood imports increased at a CAGR of 6.7% from 2015 to 2019. Canada was Indonesia's eighth largest supplier of agri-food and seafood products in 2019 representing a 4.1% market share.

Indonesia's top agri-food and seafood imports from the world in 2019 were wheat, oilcake, raw cane sugar, cotton, and soybeans. Key supplying countries were the United States (U.S), China, Australia, Thailand and Argentina.

Halal Law

The recent implementation of Indonesia's law No. 33 on Halal Product Assurance (Halal Law or Halal Product Law), effective October 17, 2019, regulates the processing, materials and certification of Halal products, ensuring that many consumer products and related services that enter and traded in Indonesia are Halal-certified.Footnote1

Halal is a combination of Islamic law and hygienic, sanitation and safety requirements. Halal certification ensures that halal products are of high quality and nutritional value to be permissible for Muslim consumption.

Under the Law, it is mandatory for all food and beverage products available in Indonesian retail markets to be labelled either halal or non halal. Restaurants and other food service establishments will be required to demonstrate that dishes are prepared from halal certified products, otherwise these dishes must be labelled as non halal. Imported products entering Indonesia without halal certification will be permitted, however, these products must be labelled as non halal. A five-year grace period has been implemented, allowing food and beverage manufacturers and exporters until October 17, 2024 to comply with the new requirements, with the exception of all meat products which already must be halal - a longstanding requirement in Indonesia.

The Halal Product Assurance Organizing Agency (BPJPH), a new government agency under the Ministry of Religious Affairs, administers Halal law and are responsible for the issuance of Halal certificates. For exporters of food and beverage products that require Halal certification in Indonesia, exporters must be Halal-certified by an agency from their own country (Foreign Halal Agencies -FHA, an Islamic body recognized by the country of origin as an agency that can issue Halal certification) that is recognized and currently registered with the BPJPH.Footnote1 Once the FHA agency is recognized and registered with the BPJPH, exporters receive a registration number for packaging placement readying the product for export to Indonesia.Footnote1

The intent of the BPJPH is to establish cooperation with FHAs to ease the process for exporters looking to market their products in Indonesia. As such, Canadian exporters of agri-food and value-added products should ensure registration and compliance with Canadian Halal agencies to acquire Halal certification necessary to export products to Indonesia. Further, according to the Global Islamic Economy Report 2018 / 2019, Indonesian Muslims spent US$218 billion in various sectors such as travel, finance, pharmaceuticals and cosmetics and fashion, and from this amount, more than US$170 billion was spent on Halal food, giving the country potential to become a global Halal market hub.Footnote1

Indonesia's top agri-food and seafood imports from the world, 2019
Commodity Import value Can$ millions Top suppliers and market share % Canada's share %
1 2 3
Wheat 3,717.5 Canada: 25.1 Ukraine: 25.0 Argentina: 18.3 25.1
Oilcake 2,201.7 Argentina: 62.0 Brazil: 35.6 Paraguay: 1.5 0.0
Raw cane sugar 1,747.8 Thailand: 86.0 Australia: 14.4 Japan: 0.0 0.0
Cotton 1,483.6 United States: 39.1 Brazil: 32.6 Australia: 6.8 0.0
Soybeans 1,412.6 United States: 94.0 Canada: 4.9 Brazil: 0.7 4.9
Frozen beef 796.7 India: 51.7 Australia: 33.0 United States: 8.5 0.0
Live cattle 775.2 Australia: 98.6 India: 1.4 0.0
Cocoa beans 723.9 Ecuador: 22.4 Côte d'Ivoire: 20.0 Cameroon: 12.1 0.0
Garlic 701.6 China: 100.0 0.0
Tobacco 658.0 China: 33.4 Brazil: 24.5 Zimbabwe: 10.0 0.1
Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2020

Indonesia's processed food and beverage imports were valued at Can$13.2 billion in 2019. Canada's share was 0.6%. Thailand, the U.S., Argentina, China and Australia were the largest suppliers of processed food to Indonesia in 2019, providing 57.0% of the market. Indonesia's processed food imports grew by a CAGR of 5.4% from 2015 to 2019.

Indonesia's top agri-food and seafood exports were valued at Can$43.0 billion in 2019, representing a CAGR of 1.7% between 2015 to 2019. Indonesia's top agri-food and seafood exports in 2019 were palm oil, crude palm oil, frozen shrimp and prawns, coffee and palm kernel oil. Key countries importing as much as 44.5% of commodities from Indonesia were China, the US, India, Malaysia and the Philippines. Canada was Indonesia's 40th-largest market for agri-food and seafood products in 2019, representing a 0.4% share.

Indonesia's top agri-food and seafood exports to the world, 2019
Commodity Export value Can$ millions Top destinations and market share % Canada's share %
1 2 3
Palm oil 14,677.1 China: 23.8 Pakistan: 10.1 Bangladesh: 6.3 0.0
Crude palm oil 4,823.8 India: 53.4 Spain: 11.7 Malaysia: 10.9 0.0
Frozen shrimp and prawns 1,683.8 United States: 67.1 Japan: 20.6 China: 4.2 1.0
Coffee 1,157.0 United States: 29.1 Japan: 7.9 Italy: 6.9 2.7
Palm kernel oil 1,145.9 China: 43.0 United States: 15.4 Brazil: 13.7 0.0
Cocoa butter 984.6 United States: 34.0 Netherlands: 13.9 India: 6.7 3.0
Edible mixtures 876.2 China: 45.0 Algeria: 4.8 Russia: 4.5 0.2
Oilcake 746.3 Netherlands: 33.7 New Zealand: 16.2 China: 11.0 0.0
Cuttle fish 574.5 China: 50.0 Vietnam: 25.1 Taiwan: 10.2 0.1
Preparations with coffee 569.5 Philippines: 88.4 Russia: 2.0 Malaysia: 1.8 0.1
Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2020

Canada's performance

In 2019, Canada exported Can$67.1 billion of agri-food and seafood products to the world, with 55.6% of these products exported to the US and 1.3% exported to Indonesia.

Canada's agri-food and seafood exports to Indonesia were valued a Can$893.4 million in 2019. Top exports in 2019 were wheat and meslin, soy beans, frozen crabs, barley seed and skim milk powder. In 2019, Canada registered an agri-food and seafood trade export surplus of Can$612.0 million with Indonesia (importing Can$281.4 million from Indonesia).

Retail sales

The emerging Indonesian middle class consumer have a growing interest in imported foods, particularly for processed, as individual purchasing power increase and lifestyles are evolving. Demographic trends, including increasing numbers of young, urban and educated consumers with rising incomes, are rapidly changing the retail landscape. Products that cater to an on-the-go lifestyle or offer health benefits are increasingly sought after.

Retail sales for food in Indonesia experienced moderate growth as sales increased 8.2% from US$22.3 billion in 2015 to US$30.6 billion in 2019; a trend that is expected to continue in the forecast period, albeit at a slightly lower rate of 7.6%, as sales increase to US$44.4 billion by 2024. All categories within the historic and forecast period will experience positive or an increase in growth to varying degrees. The bakery and cereals category attained the highest retail sales worth US$4.8 billion followed by the dairy and soy food category valued at US$3.9 billion in 2019. The confectionery category attained the highest CAGR of 13.0% and 17.0% respectively, in both historic and forecast periods, followed by the savoury snacks category that attained growth levels of 11.8%and 9.6% in both periods.

Food retail sales in Indonesia, in US$ millions, 2018 fixed exchange rate, historic and forecast
Category 2015 2019 CAGR* % 2015-2019 2020 2024 CAGR* % 2020-2024
Food total 22,338.2 30,587.4 8.2 33,100.6 44,447.4 7.6
Bakery and cereals 3,493.2 4,795.9 8.2 5,177.2 6,807.1 7.1
Dairy and soy food 2,580.4 3,935.6 11.1 4,348.0 6,161.9 9.1
Fish and seafood 2,773.1 3,602.2 6.8 3,851.8 4,892.4 6.2
Seasonings, dressings and sauces 2,493.9 3,565.0 9.3 3,883.9 5,213.3 7.6
Meat 2,864.9 3,537.8 5.4 3,731.0 4,584.0 5.3
Other dried food 2,112.6 2,777.7 7.1 2,942.1 3,578.8 5.0
Confectionery 1,434.5 2,334.7 13.0 2,701.7 5,067.3 17.0
Pasta and noodles 1,773.6 2,284.6 6.5 2,432.2 2,966.6 5.1
Savory snacks 706.5 1,104.2 11.8 1,234.9 1,784.9 9.6
Oils and fats 825.6 997.7 4.8 1,041.8 1,203.9 3.7
Ice cream 370.7 550.7 10.4 602.5 830.6 8.4
Beans and pulses 424.2 506.9 4.6 528.9 610.4 3.6
Meat substitutes 164.0 202.9 5.5 213.5 252.7 4.3
Syrups and spreads 105.8 119.5 3.1 123.9 137.2 2.6
Other frozen food 93.3 115.9 5.6 121.6 151.1 5.6
Savory and deli foods 69.7 91.7 7.1 97.6 123.7 6.1
Other canned food 42.7 50.9 4.5 53.2 62.1 3.9
Soups 5.0 7.3 9.8 8.0 10.8 7.8
Prepared meals 4.6 6.2 8.0 6.7 8.7 6.7

Source: GlobalData, Market Data - Segment Insights, 2020

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Health and wellness

A growing awareness of healthy food amongst younger and middle to upper-income Indonesians in urban areas is changing consumer trends.

The health and wellness food sector increased by a growth rate of 8.1% from US$1.8 billion in retail sales in 2016 to US$2.3 billion in 2019, a trend that is expected to continue at a lower growth rate of 6.3%, as retail sales increase to US$2.9 billion by 2023.

Naturally healthy food products were the largest category in both historic and forecast periods with retail sales of US$1.5 billion in 2019 and US$1.8 billion by 2023. The organic food category had the lowest retail sales of US$12.5 million in 2019 and is expected to increase 8.3% to US$17.9 million by 2023.

Health and wellness food product retail sales in Indonesia, in US$ million, 2018 fixed exchange rate, historic and forecast
Category 2016 2019 CAGR* % 2016-2019 2020 2023 CAGR* % 2020-2023
Health and wellness total 1,787.8 2,255.8 8.1 2,447.1 2,938.9 6.3
Naturally healthy (NH) 1,162.1 1,452.55 7.7 1,575.9 1,849.1 5.5
Functional and fortified 258.1 343.9 10.0 375.2 474.3 8.1
Free from 183.0 229.8 7.9 248.8 314.9 8.2
Food minus 94.2 113.9 6.5 121.4 143.9 5.8
Food intolerance (FI) 80.8 103.2 8.5 111.55 138.99 7.6
Organic 9.7 12.5 8.8 14.1 17.9 8.3

Source;GlobalData, Health and Wellness, Market Data, 2020

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Foodservice market

The Indonesian foodservice profit sector generated a total revenue of US$52.9 billion in 2019. The value of the sector increased by a CAGR of 4.0% from 2016-2019, and growth is forecast to remain moderate at 3.2%, during the forecast period. Growth across all foodservice channels is forecast to continue being primarily attributed to rising transaction numbers, rather than to outlet expansion, as cities grow and desirable locations become increasingly sparse. The growth is also attributed to the growing middle class population, as well as large impact of tourist and meetings, incentives, conventions and exhibitions (MICE) consumers.

Full service restaurants (FSR) is the largest foodservice outlet in Indonesia, mostly made up of Asian cuisine restaurants. In 2019, the FSR channel accounted for US$32.7 billion and 86.5% of total revenue for all restaurant channels, and this trend is expected to continue into the forecast period with sales valued at US$37.9 billion by 2023. This reflects the expectation that Indonesians continue to be traditional and enjoy a sit-down meal in a restaurant, as well as the large impact of tourists and MICE consumers, eager for a quality, sit-down meals rather than the convenience-led QSR and mobile operator channels.

Foodservice sales in Indonesia, in US$ millions, 2018 fixed exchange rate, historic and forecast
Category Outlet 2016 2019 CAGR* % 2016-2019 2020 2023 CAGR* % 2020-2023
Accommodation Bed and breakfast 34.0 36.2 2.1 37.0 39.1 1.9
Caravan park 2.0 2.1 1.6 2.1 2.2 1.5
Guest house 342.9 367.4 2.3 375.2 397.6 2.0
Holiday park 779.5 846.8 2.8 868.5 931.1 2.3
Hostel 20.0 21.7 2.8 22.3 23.9 2.3
Hotel and motel 1,455.0 1,611.9 3.5 1,662.4 1,808.1 2.8
Others 52.4 56.4 2.5 57.7 61.4 2.1
Leisure Entertainment 656.9 706.9 2.5 722.9 769.2 2.1
Venue 800.7 866.2 2.7 887.3 948.3 2.2
Visitor attraction 557.3 591.7 2.0 602.8 634.7 1.7
Mobile operator Other mobile operators 142.1 153.1 2.5 156.7 166.7 2.1
Vans 212.9 229.2 2.5 234.3 249.1 2.1
Pub, club and bar Nightclub 196.5 216.3 3.3 223.1 244.8 3.1
Private member and social club 67.2 74.0 3.3 76.2 83.6 3.1
Pub and bar 1,622.7 1,793.6 3.4 1,848.3 2,005.7 2.8
Restaurant Coffee and tea shop 392.9 428.2 2.9 439.7 472.6 2.4
Full service restaurant 28,494.0 32,725.9 4.7 34,082.2 37,988.9 3.7
Ice cream parlour 38.9 42.2 2.8 43.3 46.2 2.2
Quick service restaurant and fast food 4,063.0 4,621.0 4.4 4,799.6 5,313.1 3.4
Retail Baker 888.8 949.8 2.2 969.4 1,026.1 1.9
Convenience store 436.2 471.9 2.7 483.2 515.2 2.2
Delicatessen 56.3 60.0 2.1 61.2 64.6 1.8
Department store 28.0 30.1 2.4 30.8 32.7 2.1
Other retail 17.8 18.6 1.5 18.9 19.6 1.4
Service station forecourt 259.4 278.2 2.4 284.0 300.8 1.9
Supermarket and hypermarket 105.9 117.7 3.6 121.5 132.5 2.9
Travel Air 178.3 188.6 1.9 191.9 201.6 1.6
Rail 170.6 180.3 1.9 183.5 192.5 1.6
Sea 25.0 26.4 1.8 26.8 28.0 1.5
Workplace Government department and local authority 821.8 865.2 1.7 879.3 919.9 1.5
Industrial 2,301.9 2,436.2 1.9 2,478.5 2,599.1 1.6
Retail, financial and office based 1,759.6 1,855.8 1.8 1,886.8 1,976.2 1.6
Total 46,980.5 52,869.3 4.0 54,757.1 60,195.2 3.2

Source: GlobalData, Foodservice, 2020

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rat

Opportunities for Canada

Indonesia is a net exporter of agri-food and seafood products. In 2019, Indonesia's agri-food and seafood trade surplus was Can$16.2 billion with imports valued at Can$26.8 billion, and Can$43.0 billion in exports. Indonesia's agri-food and seafood imports increased at a CAGR of 6.7% from 2015 to 2019. Canada was Indonesia's eighth largest supplier of agri-food and seafood products in 2019 representing a 4.1% market share.

The Indonesian market represents a growing opportunity for Canada's continued participation in the agricultural market. The Indonesian population, consisting largely of urban, middle income consumers in conjunction with, an increasingly modern retail, foodservice and growing tourism sector, provides continued opportunity for Canadian suppliers to expand their agri-food, and value added ingredients and products, and distinctive brand image to the Indonesian market.

The recent implementation of Indonesia's Halal Law requiring the Halal-certification of many products and services provides Canadian exporters further opportunities to supply the Indonesian market with products that meet Halal-certification requirements. As such, Canadian exporters of agri-food and value-added products should ensure registration and compliance with Canadian Halal agencies to acquire Halal certification necessary to export products to Indonesia.

For more information

International Trade Commissioners can provide Canadian industry with on-the-ground expertise regarding market potential, current conditions and local business contacts, and are an excellent point of contact for export advice.

For additional intelligence on this and other markets, the complete library of Global Analysis reports can be accessed through the International agri-food market intelligence page.

For additional information on Food & Hotel Asia, please contact:

Ben Berry, Deputy Director
Trade Show Strategy and Delivery
Agriculture and agri-food Canada
ben.berry@canada.ca

Resources

Market Overview - Indonesia
Global Analysis Report

Prepared by: Laurie Bernardi, International Market Research Analyst

© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, represented by the Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food (2020).

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