Language selection

Search

Customized Report Services – The Mexican market

Note: This report includes forecasting data that is based on baseline historical data.

Macroeconomic outlook

According to GlobalData, Mexico was the seventh highest tourist country in the world, yet also has the fourth highest income disparity among the economically developed member countries in 2019. Although, as per INEGI, Mexico's economic health had already begun to deteriorate prior to the global pandemic, COVID-19 has further impacted Mexico's economy to a higher degree than on an average global scale. GlobalData predicts that Mexico's economic growth rate will contract by −10%, whereby the central bank predicts a contraction anywhere between −9% and −12% in 2020.

On March 30, 2020, Mexican authorities declared a state of emergency following the pandemic outbreak, whereby amongst the precautionary measurements taken by the government included the issuance of sanitary health protection guidelines, the imposing of temporary International travel bans, the closure of all non-essential activities, and the suspension of trade for all health machinery & equipment. Further contributing to these high economic losses include Mexico's dependency on the United States (US) in terms of trade with 80% of its exports being destined to America, along with a loss of 1.4 million jobs throughout the country with the unemployment rate expected to rise from 3.5% in 2019 to 5.7% in 2020.Footnote 1

In 2019, Mexico's top export markets for value-added/processed agri-food & seafood products were the US by a 74.6% market share, followed by Japan at 3.9%, and Canada at 2.8%. Total annual per capita expenditure on agri-food & non-alcohol/alcohol beverages in Mexico was US$1,245.1 in 2019, and is expected to slightly decrease in 2020 to US$1,174.5 as a result in an increase in food expenditure and a predicted decrease in overall beverage expenditure.

Major telecommunication service expansion efforts in Mexico couldn't come at a better time in broadening the deployment of its wireless and mobile data market, and in upgrading the mobile phone and internet broadband to a 5G network by 2021. The Mexican government also, plans to invest US$43 billion between 2020-2024 to boost the economy, as part of an infrastructure program (PNI) in three key areas including: the expansion in the Guadalajara airport runway, the interurban train between Mexico City and Toluca & the Garcia airport railway corridor, along with the interstate link between Matehuala-Saltillo and Ciudad Victoria-Monterrey highways in the state of Coahuila and Nuevo Leon.Footnote 1

Trade overview

In 2019, Mexico's exports to the world of value-added/processed agri-food and seafood products totaled US$32.8 billion, which have increased by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.1% between 2015 and 2019. In 2020 (Jan.-Jul.), exports of these value-added products were valued at US$20.4 billion compared to US$19.2 billion during the same period in 2019, representing a growth of 5.9%.

Mexico's largest export markets for value-added/processed agri-food and seafood products were the US by a 74.6% market share, followed by Japan (3.9%), Canada (2.8%), China (1.6%), and Guatemala (1.4%). Over the 2020/19 (Jan.-Jul.) period, China had the largest import growth from Mexico by 32.8%, while Canada had an import decline of −1.3%.

Mexico's top 5 export markets for value-added/processed agri-food and seafood products, 2019 historical - measured values in Can$ millions
Rank Market 2018 2019 Market share % in 2019 CAGR* % (2015-2019) 2020 (January to July)[1] Growth difference % (2020/2019, January to July)
1 United States 21,592.5 24,451.6 74.6 11.0 15,981.9 10.7
2 Japan 1,059.5 1,266.9 3.9 12.2 783.7 8.9
3 Canada 756.3 915.2 2.8 14.2 563.9 −1.3
4 China 473.1 524.2 1.6 29.4 320.2 32.8
5 Guatemala 409.1 459.9 1.4 7.9 269.0 0.7
Subtotal - Top 5 markets 24,290.5 27,617.9 84.3 11.3 17,918.8 10.4
Total - Mexico's exports 29,561.0 32,778.2 100.0 11.1 20,359.3 5.9

Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2020

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

1: Mexico has only reported its global export values up until the end of July

Food and beverage expenditures and preferences

Mexico has the second largest consumer market in Latin America, after Brazil. In 2019, total consumer expenditure per capita on essential sectors was US$1,417.6, of which 87.8% was spent on food and beverages (incl. alcohol drinks) leaving 12.2% of the consumer budget for the remaining categories such as baby care, cosmetics/toiletries, household products, over-the-counter (OTC) healthcare, pet care, and tobacco products.

According to GlobalData, consumer offline expenditure on food and grocery in Mexico totaled US$212.5 billion in 2019 and is estimated to increase to US$229.2 billion in 2020, representing an approximate growth of 7.9%. Online food and grocery purchases is expected to increase by 125.7% from US$460 million in 2019 to US$1,038 million in 2020.Footnote 2

In 2019, Mexican consumers spent the most on staple foods such as meat, bakery and cereals, dairy and soy food, and fish and seafood products. Annual per capita expenditure from within almost all food categories have moderately declined between 2015-2019. Non-essential foods or value-added categories that continued to stay the same or grow during this period included ice cream (CAGR: 1.4%), prepared meals (0.0%), soups (0.2%), and meat substitutes (3.1%). With expected global price increases from within the food sector in 2021, annual per capita expenditure in most food categories is once again, expected to increase with the exception from within the dairy and soy food and fish and seafood categories that are expected to decrease both at a CAGR of −0.3% between 2020-2024.

Annual per capita expenditure on food and beverages in Mexico, historic and forecasted measured in US$, 2015-2024
Category 2015 2019 CAGR* (%) 2015-2019 2020 2024 CAGR* (%) 2020-2024
Total consumer expenditure 1,183.0 1,245.1 1.3 1,174.5 1,294.9 2.5
Food total: 713.7 684.7 −1.0 717.8 748.4 1.1
Meat 223.9 222.4 −0.2 229.6 243.4 1.5
Bakery and cereals 172.8 163.3 −1.4 172.7 176.3 0.5
Dairy and soy food 101.6 92.2 −2.4 97.4 96.4 −0.3
Fish and seafood 63.3 58.8 −1.8 61.6 61.0 −0.3
Confectionery 30.8 30.2 −0.5 31.7 34.3 2.0
Seasonings, dressings and sauces 28.8 27.6 −1.1 29.3 30.6 1.1
Savory snacks 24.9 25.0 0.1 24.9 26.9 2.0
Beans and pulses 17.9 17.0 −1.3 18.8 20.5 2.1
Syrups and spreads 10.2 10.1 −0.05 10.2 10.9 1.7
Other canned food 9.8 9.7 −0.4 11.3 13.5 4.4
Oils and fats 9.4 8.3 −3.1 8.7 9.3 1.8
Pasta and noodles 5.1 5.1 −0.1 6.0 7.7 6.5
Ice cream 3.9 4.2 1.4 4.0 4.7 3.8
Prepared meals 3.3 3.3 0.0 3.4 3.5 0.9
Other dried food 3.3 3.2 −0.3 3.4 4.1 4.4
Other frozen food 2.4 2.2 −2.4 2.3 2.5 2.0
Soups 1.4 1.4 0.2 1.5 1.8 4.9
Meat substitutes 0.7 0.8 3.1 0.8 1.0 5.0
Savory and deli foods 0.2 0.2 −1.5 0.2 0.2 1.4
Beverages total: 259.3 338.6 6.9 279.7 325.9 3.9
Mineral waters, juices and other drinks 241.6 320.3 7.3 263.8 310.2 4.1
Hot drinks - coffee, tea and other 17.6 18.3 1.0 15.9 15.6 −0.5
Alcohol drinks total: 210.1 221.9 1.4 177.0 220.6 5.7
Beer 123.5 131.4 1.6 105.1 136.9 6.8
Spirits 73.2 75.4 0.7 62.6 71.4 3.3
Wine 13.4 15.2 3.1 9.3 12.4 7.4
Non-alcohol/alcohol drinks total: 469.4 560.4 4.5 456.7 546.5 4.6

Source: GlobalData Intelligence, 2020

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

The retail market: packaged food, beverages and health and wellness products

The retail value sales for packaged food continue to grow steadily in Mexico, reaching US$131.3 billion in 2019 at a historical CAGR of 4.9% (2015-2019); and is forecast to reach US$150.4 billion in 2023, representing an expected CAGR of 2.5% (2020-2023).

Between 2015 and 2019, non-essential foods were still showing growth in sales including categories such as confectionery, savory snacks, syrups and spreads, and ice cream. Sales in all food categories are expected to grow, while hot drinks such as coffee and tea report an expected CAGR of −0.04% (2020-2023). Perhaps this is a result of many people who will continue to telework and will choose to forego brewing their own coffee or tea as often in their homes.

Digging deeper into the health and wellness (HW) confectionery category, sugar confectionery was the largest category with value sales of US$1.6 billion in 2019. However, the chocolate category is forecast to register the fastest value growth at a CAGR of 3.5%, during the period of 2019-2024, followed by sugar confectionery with a CAGR of 1.3%, while the gum category is forecast to decline by −0.7%. HW attribute and consumer benefits that contribute the most to the growth in this category include 'free from' and 'health management' claims, whereby consumption of confectionery is most popular amongst females over males, and kids (0 to 15 years) accounted for 34.2% in volume share in 2018. Especially, apparent in the chocolate confectionery category, products with HW claims on the package are forecast to grow at a higher CAGR of 31.5% over those products that do not contain the HW claim (2.5%) between 2019 to 2024.Footnote 3

Retail sales of food and beverages in Mexico, historic and forecasted measured in US$ millions, 2015-2023
Category 2015 2019 CAGR* (%) 2015-2019 2020 2023 CAGR* (%) 2020-2023
Total - food and beverages 183,573.1 229,916.9 5.8 228,775.8 258,239.1 4.1
Food total: 108,311.5 131,263.0 4.9 139,813.3 150,357.2 2.5
Meat 33,985.1 42,629.0 5.8 44,720.5 48,630.6 2.8
Bakery and cereals 26,223.1 31,300.3 4.5 33,641.8 35,667.7 2.0
Dairy and soy food 15,415.8 17,667.2 3.5 18,979.3 19,555.6 1.0
Fish and seafood 9,604.8 11,267.9 4.1 11,999.4 12,466.7 1.3
Confectionery 4,678.9 5,797.5 5.5 6,168.4 6,755.3 3.1
Seasonings, dressings and sauces 4,374.1 5,282.6 4.8 5,704.5 6,125.7 2.4
Savory snacks 3,776.0 4,784.6 6.1 4,848.5 5,372.1 3.5
Beans and pulses 2,718.6 3,256.0 4.6 3,669.1 4,080.4 3.6
Syrups and spreads 1,540.8 1,941.2 5.9 1,986.6 2,175.6 3.1
Other canned food 1,491.3 1,858.7 5.7 2,205.9 2,669.9 6.6
Oils and fats 1,427.9 1,587.4 2.7 1,689.4 1,851.0 3.1
Pasta and noodles 780.1 979.3 5.8 1,163.6 1,497.0 8.8
Ice cream 596.9 797.0 7.5 778.3 920.3 5.7
Prepared meals 496.8 626.8 6.0 662.6 704.7 2.1
Other dried food 493.4 615.5 5.7 664.6 804.4 6.6
Other frozen food 365.0 419.6 3.5 440.7 494.0 3.9
Soups 212.2 271.2 6.3 294.7 353.5 6.3
Meat substitutes 105.1 150.5 9.4 162.8 196.7 6.5
Savory and deli foods 25.4 30.8 4.9 32.4 36.1 3.6
Non-alcohol beverages total: 43,372.8 56,114.0 6.7 54,478.2 64,434.3 5.8
Mineral waters, juices and other drinks 40,699.6 52,604.8 6.6 51,377.3 61,336.7 6.1
Hot drinks - coffee, tea and other 2,673.2 3,509.2 7.0 3,101.0 3,097.6 −0.04
Alcohol drinks total: 31,888.9 42,539.9 7.5 34,484.3 43,447.6 8.0
Beer 18,745.2 25,183.5 7.7 20,472.2 26,903.2 9.5
Spirits 11,108.2 14,450.9 6.8 12,200.2 14,137.5 5.0
Wine 2,035.5 2,905.5 9.3 1,811.9 2,406.9 9.9
Non-alcohol/alcohol drinks total: 75,261.7 98,653.9 7.0 88,962.5 107,881.8 6.6

Source: GlobalData Intelligence, 2020

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Health and wellness products

Retail sales of HW products also, continue to grow steadily in Mexico reaching US$24.8 billion in 2019 at a historical CAGR of 3.9% (2015 to 2019); and is forecast to reach US$28.0 billion in 2023, representing a slight decline in growth with an expected CAGR of 1.7% (2020 to 2023).

In 2019, naturally healthy (NH) retail food products continue to be the largest HW sector, representing a market value sales share of 52.5% (US$13.0 billion). Other large HW food sectors include fortified/functional (FF) products at 16.5% (US$4.1 billion), free from at 15.3% (US$3.8 billion), and food minus at 14.6% (US$3.6 billion). Sales of non-alcohol HW beverages totaled US$6.3 billion in 2019, representing a decline in growth by a CAGR of −4.9% (2015-2019). This decline was fully attributable by a decline of −37.3% that occurred over the 2019/2018 period.

Mexico's health and wellness food sector by category distribution - 2019 retail value sales in 2010 fixed rates, US$
Description of this image follows.
Description of above image
  • Naturally healthy (NH): US$13.0 billion (52.5%)
  • Fortified/functional (FF): US$4.1 billion (16.5%)
  • Free from: US$3.8 billion (15.3%)
  • Food minus: US$3.6 billion (14.6%)
  • Food intolerance: US$173.6 million (0.7%)
  • Organic: US$103.3 million (0.4%)

Source: GlobalData Intelligence, 2020

Total health and wellness: US$24.8 billion

The Mexican health and wellness agri-food market - historical and forecasted fixed retail value sales in US$ millions
Categories by type Product attribute (segment) 2015 2019 CAGR* (%) 2015-2019 2020 2023 CAGR* (%) 2020-2023
Total - Health and wellness food 21,296.1 24,807.1 3.9 26,562.0 27,956.1 1.7
Naturally healthy (NH) All natural, herbal, multi-grain, other NH; source of calcium/ fiber/nutrients/protein/vitamins 11,430.8 13,029.2 3.3 14,044.6 14,510.5 1.1
Functional/fortified (FF) Added calcium/fiber/proteins/ nutrients/vitamins/omega-3/ prebiotic/probiotic; immunity boosting; other FF 3,409.9 4,082.7 4.6 4,391.8 4,716.8 2.4
Free from Free from cholesterol/fat/sugar/sodium/salt/other free from; no added sodium/salt/sugar; no calories; lean and extra lean 3,134.2 3,796.4 4.9 4,059.8 4,423.9 2.9
Food minus Reduced calorie/carb/fat/sugar/cholesterol/sodium/salt; other 3,087.1 3,621.9 4.1 3,871.0 4,101.5 1.9
Food intolerance (FI) Gluten/lactose free; other FI 145.8 173.6 4.5 194.7 203.4 1.5
Organic Free from, fortified/functional, naturally healthy 88.5 103.3 3.9 N/A N/A

Source: GlobalData Intelligence, 2020

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

N/A: Not available

The Mexican health and wellness non-alcoholic beverage market - historical fixed retail value sales in US$ millions
Categories by type 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR* (%) 2015-2019
Total - Health and wellness beverages 7,737.6 8,583.4 9,293.0 10,085.8 6,321.2 −4.9
Naturally healthy (NH) 1,919.1 2,400.9 2,562.9 2,505.6 2,775.9 9.7
Food minus 1,759.9 1,838.8 2,155.2 2,353.3 1,962.7 2.8
Functional/fortified (FF) 3,817.6 4,092.2 4,460.4 5,104.8 1,582.7 −19.8
Free from 239.5 248.7 111.1 114.2 N/A −21.9
Organic 1.5 2.9 3.4 7.8 N/A 73.3

Source: GlobalData Intelligence, 2020

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

N/A: Not available

Competitive landscape on health and wellness products

In 2019, leading Mexican retail distributors within the HW food sector included Artisanal producers with sales of US$6.2 billion (market share: 25.0%), Grupo Bimbo, S.A.B. de C.V. at US$2.8 billion (11.3%), Grupo Lala S.A. de C.V. at US$2.8 billion (11.2%), Ganaderos Productores de Leche Pura S.A. de C.V. at US$1.8 billion (10.3%), and Mondelez International Incorporated at US$1.3 billion (5.4%). Private labels contributed to 2.4% of HW product sales (including Soriana's private label) at US$593.6 million.

Top companies in Mexico in the health and wellness sector, 2019 fixed retail value sales in US$ millions and % share
Product attribute category Trademark owner 2019 Total market share % in 2019
Total - Health and wellness food sales 24,807.1 100.0
Naturally healthy (NH) Artisanal producers 3,035.9 23.3
Grupo Lala, SA de CV 2,154.0 16.5
Ganaderos Productores de Leche Pura SA de CV 1,688.1 13.0
Private label (including Soriana) 413.8 3.2
Others 1,712.4 13.1
Total - Naturally healthy (NH) 13,029.2 52.7
Functional/fortified (FF) Artisanal Producers 1,529.6 37.5
The Kellogg Company 897.3 22.0
Grupo Bimbo, S.a-B. de CV 806.1 19.7
Private label (including Soriana) 65.6 1.6
Others 280.7 6.9
Total - functional/fortified (FF) 4,082.7 16.5
Free from Artisanal Producers 1,085.1 28.6
Mondelez International, Inc 574.6 15.1
Grupo Bimbo, S.a-B. de CV 351.4 9.3
Private label (including Soriana) 65.4 1.7
Others 328.5 8.7
Total - free from 3,796.4 15.4
Food minus Mondelez International, Inc 632.0 17.5
Artisanal Producers 518.5 14.3
Grupo Lala, SA de CV 378.5 10.5
Private label 28.7 0.8
Others 395.3 10.9
Total - food minus 3,621.9 14.7
Food intolerance (FI) The Hershey Co. 25.1 14.5
Ganaderos Productores de Leche Pura SA de CV 23.1 13.3
The Coca-Cola Company 17.6 10.1
Private label 2.7 1.5
Total - food intolerance (FI) 173.6 0.7
Organic Grupo Industrial Cuadritos Biotek 48.8 47.3
Unifood International(s) Pte. Ltd. 12.1 11.7
Italpasta Ltd. 10.3 10.0
Private label 1.6 1.6
Others 11.8 11.4
Total - organic 103.3 0.4
Source: GlobalData Intelligence, 2020

Distribution channels in the foodservice sector in Mexico (on-trade)

In Mexico, profit operators such as restaurants, workplaces, and retail foodservice providers to name a few, represented a market share of 84.5% at US$36.1 billion, while institutional cost operators (education, healthcare, military and civil defense etc.) represented the remaining 15.5% of sales at US$6.6 billion in 2019. Much due to the global COVID-19 pandemic shutdowns from within the foodservice businesses, sale ratios from within these distribution channels were slightly altered where there was a higher switch to profit operator channels with sales increasing to an expected 89.8% share, while institutional cost operator sales decreased to a 10.2% share in 2020.

Unsurprisingly, overall retail sales value from within the foodservice sector decreased in growth by −40.4% from US$42.8 billion in 2019 to an expected approximate value of US$25.5 billion in 2020. Due to several people working from home since March 2020, along with institutional shutdowns, foodservice cost operator sales declined by a value of almost more than double (−60.9%) over profit operators (−36.6%), who have also often struggled to stay open, yet to contain the virus managed to evolve to offering less direct in-dining services, to offering more of an e-commerce ordering platform with strategies such as door-to-door or door-to-car pickup delivery services.

Distribution channels in the foodservice sector in Mexico, historical and forecasted fixed retail sales value in US$ millions and % share, by outlet type
Outlets Retail sales value (US$ millions) % Growth difference (2020/2019) Market share %
2019 2020 2019 2020
Foodservice (profit operators) 36,126.8 22,887.4 −36.6 84.5 89.8
Restaurant 26,413.6 17,674.7 −33.1 73.1 77.2
Workplace 4,819.9 2,268.1 −52.9 13.3 9.9
Retail foodservice providers 1,586.1 1,063.0 −33.0 4.4 4.6
Mobile operator 1,579.2 909.2 −42.4 4.4 4.0
Accommodation 910.9 516.1 −43.3 2.5 2.3
Leisure 503.0 271.5 −46.0 1.4 1.2
Pub, club and bar 189.6 108.1 −43.0 0.5 0.5
Travel 124.6 76.6 −38.5 0.3 0.3
Institutional (cost operators) 6,648.1 2,600.2 −60.9 15.5 10.2
Education 4,246.7 384.3 −90.9 63.9 14.8
Healthcare 1,310.0 1,172.8 −10.5 19.7 45.1
Military and civil defense 582.9 544.2 −6.6 8.8 20.9
Welfare and services 501.0 498.0 −0.6 7.5 19.2
Complementary services 7.4 .8 −89.4 0.1 0.03
Total - foodservice sector 42,774.9 25,487.5 −40.4 100.0 100.0
Source: GlobalData Intelligence, 2020

Resources

Customized Report Services – The Mexican market
Global Analysis Report

Prepared by: Erin-Ann Chauvin, Senior Market Analyst

© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, represented by the Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food (2021).

Photo credits
All photographs reproduced in this publication are used by permission of the rights holders.
All images, unless otherwise noted, are copyright Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada.

To join our distribution list or to suggest additional report topics or markets, please contact:

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Global Analysis
1341 Baseline Rd, Tower 5, 3rd floor
Ottawa ON  K1A 0C5
Canada
Email: aafc.mas-sam.aac@canada.ca

The Government of Canada has prepared this report based on primary and secondary sources of information. Although every effort has been made to ensure that the information is accurate, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) assumes no liability for any actions taken based on the information contained herein.

Reproduction or redistribution of this document, in whole or in part, must include acknowledgement of agriculture and agri-food Canada as the owner of the copyright in the document, through a reference citing AAFC, the title of the document and the year. Where the reproduction or redistribution includes data from this document, it must also include an acknowledgement of the specific data source(s), as noted in this document.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada provides this document and other report services to agriculture and food industry clients free of charge.

Report a problem on this page
Please select all that apply:

Date modified: