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Customized Report Services – Granola and granola bars in the Canadian and American foodservice sector

Note: This report includes forecasting data that is based on baseline historical data.

Market snapshot

Granola and granola bars contain ingredients such as nuts & other seeds, and swelled/roasted cereals or other cereal products. In 2019, Canada exported a total of Can$159.8 million to the world in the nuts and other seeds category (HS:200819). The top five markets were the United States (US), the United Kingdom (UK), Taiwan, Australia and Japan. Most of Canada's export supply (97.5%) was destined for the US, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.2% between 2017 and 2019. Over the same period, exports to Taiwan increased at a CAGR of 914.8%, while exports to South Korea decreased by a CAGR −26.9%.

In 2019, Canada exported a total of Can$230.0 million to the world in swelled or roasted cereals or other cereal products. The top five markets were the US, France, the UK, New Zealand and Singapore. That year, 98.6% of Canada's export supply was destined for the US, with a CAGR of 6.5% between 2017 and 2019. Over the same period, exports to France increased at a CAGR of 377.0%, while exports to Hong Kong decreased by a CAGR of −38.2%.

In 2019, sales of granola and granola bars in the Canadian foodservice sector totalled approximately US$81.8 million. Granola and granola bar products in Canada grew at a CAGR of 3.5% between 2015 and 2019, and are expected to continue to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% from 2020 to 2024 (pre-COVID-19 estimates).

In 2019, sales of granola and granola bars in the American foodservice sector totalled approximately US$637.1 million. Granola and granola bar products grew at a CAGR of 2.1% between 2015 and 2019, and are expected to continue to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% from 2020 to 2024 (pre-COVID-19 estimates).

There were 422 new launches of granola and granola bar products in Canada between January 2016 and October 2020. In 2020, the top categories of granola and granola bar products offered were breakfast cereals, snacks, dairy, bakery and chocolate confectionery. The top claims (may contain more than one claim per package) were kosher, wholegrain, ethical and low/no/reduced allergen. The top five parent companies were PepsiCo, General Mills, Nature's Path Foods, George Weston and Loblaws. The top ingredients identified were rolled oats, natural "x" flavourings, white sugar, salt and honey.

There were 1,338 launches of granola and granola bar products in the US between January 2016 and October 2020. In 2020, the top categories of granola and granola bar products offered were breakfast cereals, snacks, dairy, bakery, and desserts & ice cream. The top claims (may contain more than one claim per package) were kosher, wholegrain, GMO free, low/no/reduced allergen and gluten free. The top five parent companies were General Mills, Aldi Group, PepsiCo, Quaker Oats and Aldi. The top ingredients identified were salt, natural "x" flavourings, honey, white sugar and rolled oats.

Trade overview

In 2019, Canada exported a total of Can$159.8 million to the world in the nuts and other seeds category (HS:200819). The top five markets were the US, the UK, Taiwan, Australia and Japan. That year, 97.5% of Canada's export supply was destined for the US, with a CAGR of 6.2% between 2017 and 2019. Over the same period, exports to the Taiwan increased at a CAGR of 914.8%, while exports to South Korea decreased by a CAGR of −26.9%.

Canadian exports of nuts and other seeds to the world, 2017-2019 value measured in Can$
HS code (200819): nuts and other seeds (including mixtures, prepared or preserved)
Markets 2017 2018 2019 CAGR* % 2017-2019
United States 138,086,700 152,474,812 155,813,564 6.2
United Kingdom 167,818 180,172 1,010,664 145.4
Taiwan 5,413 3,829 557,426 914.8
Australia 100,469 756,825 476,660 117.8
Japan 212,317 122,521 382,092 34.2
Saudi Arabia 56,515 114,219 249,997 110.3
South Korea 456,950 893,201 244,180 −26.9
United Arab Emirates 114,810 60,625 230,879 41.8
Spain 53,622 183,943 171,825 79.0
Hong Kong 156,128 160,797 130,630 −8.5
World 139,813,042 155,780,701 159,766,408 6.9
Source: Global Trade Tracker based on data from Statistic Canada, as of November 11, 2020

In 2019, Canada exported a total of Can$230.0 million to the world in swelling or roasting cereals or cereal products. The top five markets were the US, France, UK, New Zealand and Singapore. That year, 98.6% of Canada's export supply was destined for the US, with a CAGR of 6.5% between 2017 and 2019. Over the same period, exports to France increased at a CAGR of 377.0%, while exports to Hong Kong decreased by a CAGR of −38.2%.

Canadian exports of swelling or roasting cereals or cereal products to the world, 2017-2019 value measured in Can$
HS code (190410): swelling or roasting cereals or cereal products
Markets 2017 2018 2019 CAGR* % 2017-2019
United States 202,637,786 195,168,444 229,904,426 6.5
France 34,158 175,542 777,219 377.0
United Kingdom 464,900 544,728 688,857 21.7
New Zealand 433,961 456,453 499,786 7.3
Singapore 198,450 280,061 447,870 50.2
China 661,340 538,836 349,241 −27.3
Hong Kong 733,300 479,523 279,770 −38.2
Mexico 44,459 27,375 122,753 66.2
Jamaica 49,920 43,300 55,750 5.7
South Korea 39,380 97,791 37,137 −2.9
World 206,996,863 198,148,527 233,270,169 6.2
Source: Global Trade Tracker based on data from Statistic Canada, as of November 11, 2020

Sales of granola and granola bars in the foodservice industry

Canada

In 2019, sales of granola and granola bars in the Canadian foodservice sector totalled approximately US$81.8 million. Granola and granola bar products grew at a CAGR of 3.5% between 2015 and 2019, and are expected to continue to grow at CAGR of 8.6% from 2020 to 2024 (pre-COVID-19 estimates).

Sales value of granola and granola bars in the Canadian foodservice sector, historical and forecast, measured values in US$ million
Category Channel 2015 2019 CAGR* % 2015-2019 2020 2024 CAGR* % 2020-2024
Breakfast cereals Accommodation 9.2 10.6 3.6 6.9 12.6 16.1
Leisure 1.9 2.2 3.3 1.5 2.5 14.6
Mobile operator 0.7 0.8 3.6 0.7 0.9 7.5
Restaurant 49.8 57.1 3.5 48.8 63.9 7.0
Travel 1.1 1.2 3.2 0.7 1.4 17.6
Workplace 2.3 2.6 3.5 2.0 3.0 10.8
Subtotal - breakfast cereals 64.9 74.6 3.5 60.6 84.3 8.6
Cereal bars Accommodation 0.6 0.7 3.3 0.4 0.8 15.8
Leisure 0.2 0.2 3.1 0.1 0.2 14.1
Mobile operator 0.1 0.1 3.3 0.1 0.1 6.8
Restaurant 4.0 4.6 3.2 3.9 5.0 6.8
Retail 0.2 0.2 3.2 0.2 0.3 7.8
Travel 0.1 0.1 3.0 0.1 0.1 17.2
Workplace 0.2 0.2 3.2 0.2 0.2 10.0
Subtotal - cereal bars 5.3 6.0 3.2 4.9 6.7 8.2
Energy bars Accommodation 0.2 0.2 3.7 0.2 0.3 16.3
Leisure 0.0 0.0 3.5 0.0 0.1 13.9
Mobile operator 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.0 0.0 7.6
Restaurant 0.7 0.8 3.7 0.6 0.9 8.7
Retail 0.1 0.1 3.6 0.1 0.1 8.7
Travel 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.0 18.7
Workplace 0.1 0.1 3.7 0.1 0.1 10.9
Subtotal - energy bars 1.1 1.3 3.7 1.0 1.5 10.5
Total 71.3 81.8 3.5 66.5 92.5 8.6

Source: GlobalData Intelligence Center: Foodservice, 2020

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Forecast period (2020-2024): pre-COVID-19 estimates

Within the Canadian restaurant channel, coffee and tea shops recorded the highest sales of breakfast cereals at US$34.6 million in 2019, followed by full service food restaurants (US$15.4 million), and quick service and fast food restaurants (US$7.1 million). These top three outlets accounted for 76.6% of total sales of breakfast cereals in the foodservice sector. They grew at a CAGR of 3.4%, 3.4% and 4.3%, respectively, from 2015 to 2019, and are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 6.0 %, 9.5% and 6.7%, respectively, from 2020 to 2024 (pre-COVID-19 estimates).

Sales value of breakfast cereals in the Canadian foodservice sector, historical and forecast, values in US$ million
Category Channel 2015 2019 CAGR* % 2015-2019 2020 2024 CAGR* % 2020-2024
Breakfast cereals Accommodation 9.2 10.6 3.6 6.9 12.6 16.1
Leisure 1.9 2.2 3.3 1.5 2.5 14.6
Mobile operator 0.7 0.8 3.6 0.7 0.9 7.5
Restaurant 49.8 57.1 3.5 48.8 63.9 7.0
Travel 1.1 1.2 3.2 0.7 1.4 17.6
Workplace 2.3 2.6 3.5 2.0 3.0 10.8
Subtotal - breakfast cereals 64.9 74.6 3.5 60.6 84.3 8.6
Cereal bars Accommodation 0.6 0.7 3.3 0.4 0.8 15.8
Leisure 0.2 0.2 3.1 0.1 0.2 14.1
Mobile operator 0.1 0.1 3.3 0.1 0.1 6.8
Restaurant 4.0 4.6 3.2 3.9 5.0 6.8
Retail 0.2 0.2 3.2 0.2 0.3 7.8
Travel 0.1 0.1 3.0 0.1 0.1 17.2
Workplace 0.2 0.2 3.2 0.2 0.2 10.0
Subtotal - cereal bars 5.3 6.0 3.2 4.9 6.7 8.2
Energy bars Accommodation 0.2 0.2 3.7 0.2 0.3 16.3
Leisure 0.0 0.0 3.5 0.0 0.1 13.9
Mobile operator 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.0 0.0 7.6
Restaurant 0.7 0.8 3.7 0.6 0.9 8.7
Retail 0.1 0.1 3.6 0.1 0.1 8.7
Travel 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.0 18.7
Workplace 0.1 0.1 3.7 0.1 0.1 10.9
Subtotal - energy bars 1.1 1.3 3.7 1.0 1.5 10.5
Total 71.3 81.8 3.5 66.5 92.5 8.6

Source: GlobalData Intelligence Center: Foodservice, 2020

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Forecast period (2020-2024): pre-COVID-19 estimates

Within the Canadian restaurant channel, coffee and tea shops recorded the highest sales of cereal bars at US$2.7 million in 2019, followed by full-service food restaurants (US$1.2 million). These top two outlets accounted for 65.2% of total sales of cereal bars in the foodservice sector. Both outlets grew at a CAGR of 3.2%, and 3.1%, respectively, from 2015 to 2019, and are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 5.9% and 8.5%, respectively, from 2020 to 2024 (pre-COVID-19 estimates).

Sales value of cereal bars in the Canadian foodservice sector, historical and forecast, values in US$ million
Channel Outlet 2015 2019 CAGR* % 2015-2019 2020 2024 CAGR* % 2020-2024
Accommodation Bed and breakfast 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.0 0.0 14.5
Caravan park 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 12.3
Guest house 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.0 0.0 11.5
Holiday park 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 15.9
Hostel 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 12.9
Hotel and motel 0.5 0.6 3.3 0.4 0.7 16.2
Others 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.0 0.0 15.0
Leisure Entertainment 0.1 0.1 3.1 0.1 0.1 13.8
Venue 0.0 0.1 3.2 0.0 0.1 14.8
Visitor attraction 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.0 0.0 13.2
Mobile operator Other mobile operators 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.1 6.5
Vans 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.0 7.4
Restaurant Coffee and tea shops 2.4 2.7 3.2 2.4 3.0 5.9
Full service restaurant 1.1 1.2 3.1 0.9 1.3 8.5
Ice cream parlour 0.1 0.1 3.0 0.1 0.1 17.7
Quick service restaurant and fast food 0.5 0.5 3.8 0.5 0.6 6.5
Retail Baker 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.1 7.4
Convenience store 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 6.4
Delicatessen 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.0 0.0 7.4
Garden and home improvement centres 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.0 0.0 9.1
Other retail 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 9.1
Service station forecourt 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 6.4
Supermarket and hypermarket 0.1 0.1 3.1 0.1 0.1 9.2
Travel Air 0.1 0.1 3.0 0.0 0.1 17.4
Coach 0.0 0.0 2.8 0.0 0.0 12.6
Rail 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 17.5
Sea 0.0 0.0 2.7 0.0 0.0 17.2
Workplace Government department and local authority 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 7.8
Industrial 0.1 0.1 3.2 0.1 0.1 9.3
Retail, financial and office based 0.0 0.0 3.5 0.0 0.1 14.2

Source: GlobalData Intelligence Center: Foodservice, 2020

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Forecast period (2020-2024): pre-COVID-19 estimates

Within the Canadian restaurant channel, full service restaurants recorded the highest sales of energy bars at US$0.6 million in 2019, followed by quick service and fast food restaurants (US$0.2 million). These top two outlets accounted for 59.5% of total sales of energy bars in the foodservice sector. Both outlets grew at a CAGR of 3.4% and 4.3%, respectively, from 2015 to 2019, and are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 9.5% and 6.7%, respectively, from 2020 to 2024 (pre-COVID-19 estimates).

Sales value of energy bars in the Canadian foodservice sector, historical and forecast, values in US$ million
Channel Outlet 2015 2019 CAGR* % 2015-2019 2020 2024 CAGR* % 2020-2024
Accommodation Caravan park 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.0 0.0 12.6
Holiday park 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.0 0.0 17.0
Hotel and motel 0.2 0.2 3.7 0.1 0.3 16.4
Others 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.0 0.0 15.2
Leisure Entertainment 0.0 0.0 3.5 0.0 0.0 14.0
Visitor attraction 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.0 0.0 13.2
Mobile operator Other mobile operators 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.0 0.0 7.5
Vans 0.0 0.0 3.9 0.0 0.0 7.7
Restaurant Full service restaurant 0.5 0.6 3.4 0.4 0.6 9.5
Quick service restaurant and fast food 0.2 0.2 4.3 0.2 0.2 6.7
Retail Baker 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.0 0.0 7.6
Convenience store 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.0 0.0 7.5
Delicatessen 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.0 0.0 8.5
Garden and home improvement centres 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.0 0.0 9.3
Other retail 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.0 0.0 9.1
Service station forecourt 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.0 0.0 7.5
Supermarket and hypermarket 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.0 0.0 10.3
Travel Air 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.0 18.8
Coach 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.0 0.0 12.9
Rail 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.0 19.0
Sea 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.0 0.0 18.0
Workplace Government department and local authority 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.0 0.0 9.0
Industrial 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.0 0.1 10.3
Retail, financial and office based 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 14.4

Source: GlobalData Intelligence Center: Foodservice, 2020

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Forecast period (2020-2024): pre-COVID-19 estimates

United States

In 2019, sales of granola and granola bars in the US foodservice sector totalled approximately US$637.1 million. Granola and granola bar products grew at a CAGR of 2.1% between 2015 and 2019 and are expected to continue to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% from 2020 to 2024 (pre-COVID-19 estimates).

Sales value of granola and granola bars in the United States foodservice sector, historical and forecast, values in US$ million
Category Channel 2015 2019 CAGR* % 2015-2019 2020 2024 CAGR* % 2020-2024
Breakfast cereals Accommodation 44.7 48.2 1.9 25.8 43.6 14.0
Leisure 32.1 34.3 1.7 19.0 30.6 12.7
Mobile operator 2.5 2.6 1.8 1.9 2.6 7.2
Restaurant 368.2 395.4 1.8 274.4 354.6 6.6
Travel 14.1 15.0 1.7 7.5 13.1 15.0
Workplace 59.1 62.7 1.5 37.8 55.9 10.3
Subtotal - breakfast cereals 520.6 558.3 1.8 366.4 500.4 8.1
Cereal bars Accommodation 1.2 1.3 2.8 0.7 1.2 15.0
Leisure 1.3 1.5 2.7 0.8 1.4 14.0
Mobile operator 0.1 0.1 2.7 0.1 0.1 8.6
Restaurant 15.7 17.5 2.7 12.3 16.8 8.1
Retail 6.5 7.2 2.6 5.1 7.2 9.0
Travel 0.7 0.7 2.6 0.4 0.7 16.4
Workplace 2.5 2.7 2.4 1.7 2.6 11.5
Subtotal - cereal bars 28.0 31.0 2.6 21.1 30.0 9.3
Energy bars Accommodation 2.0 2.6 6.8 1.4 2.8 18.3
Leisure 1.5 1.9 6.6 1.1 2.1 16.6
Mobile operator 0.2 0.2 6.7 0.2 0.3 11.7
Restaurant 15.1 19.6 6.8 13.8 21.6 11.9
Retail 11.9 15.4 6.6 11.3 17.8 12.1
Travel 1.6 2.1 6.7 1.1 2.2 19.8
Workplace 4.6 5.9 6.4 3.7 6.4 14.8
Subtotal - energy bars 36.9 47.8 6.7 32.6 53.2 13.1
Total 585.4 637.1 2.1 420.0 583.7 8.6

Source: GlobalData Intelligence Center: Foodservice, 2020

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Forecast period (2020-2024): pre-COVID-19 estimates

Within the American restaurant channel, coffee and tea shops recorded the highest sales of breakfast cereals at US$185.4 million in 2019, followed by full service food restaurants (US$110.0 million) and quick service and fast food restaurants (US$99.9 million). These top three outlets accounted for 70.8% of total sales of breakfast cereals in the foodservice sector. They grew at a CAGR of 1.7%, 1.9% and 1.9%, respectively, from 2015 to 2019, and are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 5.8%, 8.7% and 6.1%, respectively, from 2020 to 2024 (pre-COVID-19 estimates).

Sales value of breakfast cereals in the US foodservice sector, historical and forecast, values in US$ million
Channel Outlet 2015 2019 CAGR* % 2015-2019 2020 2024 CAGR* % 2020-2024
Accommodation Bed and breakfast 1.0 1.1 1.9 0.6 1.0 13.2
Caravan park 0.4 0.5 1.7 0.3 0.4 12.2
Guest house 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.1 1.6 11.0
Holiday park 2.2 2.4 2.0 1.2 2.1 14.0
Hostel 0.2 0.2 2.0 0.1 0.2 11.9
Hotel and motel 38.7 41.8 1.9 22.3 37.9 14.2
Others 0.4 0.5 1.7 0.2 0.4 14.0
Leisure Entertainment 16.6 17.7 1.6 9.9 15.5 11.9
Venue 12.7 13.7 1.9 7.4 12.4 14.0
Visitor attraction 2.8 3.0 1.9 1.7 2.6 12.1
Mobile operator Other mobile operators 0.8 0.8 1.8 0.6 0.8 7.2
Vans 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.3 1.8 7.2
Restaurant Coffee and tea shop 173.2 185.4 1.7 134.1 167.8 5.8
Full service restaurant 102.2 110.0 1.9 69.7 97.4 8.7
Quick service restaurant and fast food 92.8 99.9 1.9 70.6 89.4 6.1
Travel Air 10.7 11.3 1.6 5.6 9.8 15.0
Coach 0.5 0.5 2.0 0.3 0.5 12.9
Rail 0.1 0.2 1.9 0.1 0.1 15.3
Sea 2.8 3.0 2.0 1.5 2.7 15.3
Workplace Government department and local authority 13.2 14.0 1.5 9.3 12.8 8.3
Industrial 16.3 17.2 1.4 10.9 15.5 9.2
Retail, financial and office based 29.6 31.5 1.5 17.6 27.6 11.9

Source: GlobalData Intelligence Center: Foodservice, 2020

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Forecast period (2020-2024): pre-COVID-19 estimates

Within the American restaurant channel, coffee and tea shops recorded the highest sales of cereal bars at US$8.1 million in 2019, followed by full service food restaurants (US$4.8 million) and quick service and fast food restaurants (US$4.4 million). These top three outlets accounted for 55.5% of total sales of cereal bars in the foodservice sector. They grew at a CAGR of 2.6%, 2.8% and 2.8%, respectively from 2015 to 2019, and are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 7.1 %, 10.2% and 7.5%, respectively from 2020 to 2024 (pre-COVID-19 estimates).

Sales value of cereal bars in the US foodservice sector, historical and forecast, values in US$ million
Channel Outlet 2015 2019 CAGR* % 2015-2019 2020 2024 CAGR*% 2020-2024
Accommodation Bed and breakfast 0.0 0.0 2.8 0.0 0.0 14.7
Caravan park 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 13.1
Guest house 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.0 0.0 12.5
Holiday park 0.1 0.1 2.9 0.0 0.1 15.6
Hostel 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.0 0.0 13.5
Hotel and motel 1.0 1.1 2.8 0.6 1.1 15.1
Others 0.0 0.0 2.7 0.0 0.0 14.9
Leisure Entertainment 0.7 0.8 2.5 0.4 0.7 13.4
Venue 0.5 0.6 2.8 0.3 0.6 14.8
Visitor attraction 0.1 0.1 2.8 0.1 0.1 13.6
Mobile operator Other mobile operators 0.0 0.0 2.7 0.0 0.0 8.6
Vans 0.1 0.1 2.7 0.1 0.1 8.6
Restaurant Coffee and tea shop 7.3 8.1 2.6 6.0 7.8 7.1
Full service restaurant 4.3 4.8 2.8 3.1 4.6 10.2
Ice cream parlour 0.2 0.2 2.6 0.1 0.2 16.8
Quick service restaurant and fast food 3.9 4.4 2.8 3.1 4.2 7.5
Retail Baker 0.2 0.2 2.5 0.2 0.2 8.4
Convenience store 0.8 0.9 2.5 0.6 0.9 8.6
Delicatessen 0.3 0.3 2.4 0.2 0.3 9.1
Garden and home improvement centres 0.1 0.1 2.5 0.0 0.1 10.6
Other retail 0.1 0.1 2.6 0.1 0.1 10.6
Service station forecourt 3.8 4.2 2.6 3.1 4.3 8.6
Supermarket and hypermarket 1.2 1.4 2.5 0.9 1.3 10.5
Travel Air 0.4 0.5 2.5 0.2 0.5 16.4
Coach 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.0 0.0 13.8
Rail 0.0 0.0 2.8 0.0 0.0 16.8
Sea 0.2 0.2 2.9 0.1 0.2 16.8
Workplace Government department and local authority 0.6 0.6 2.4 0.4 0.6 9.5
Industrial 0.7 0.8 2.3 0.5 0.7 10.4
Retail, financial and office based 1.2 1.4 2.5 0.8 1.3 13.3

Source: GlobalData Intelligence Center: Foodservice, 2020

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Forecast period (2020-2024): pre-COVID-19 estimates

Within the American restaurant channel, full service food restaurants recorded the highest sales of energy bars at US$10.3 million in 2019, followed by quick service and fast food restaurants (US$9.3 million). These top two outlets accounted for 41.1% of total sales of energy bars in the foodservice sector. Both outlets grew well at a CAGR of 6.8% and 6.8%, respectively, from 2015 to 2019, and are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 10.3% and 10.5%, respectively, from 2020 to 2024 (pre-COVID-19 estimates).

Sales value of energy bars in the US foodservice sector, historical and forecast, values in US$ million
Channel Outlet 2015 2019 CAGR* % 2015-2019 2020 2024 CAGR* % 2020-2024
Accommodation Caravan park 0.0 0.0 6.7 0.0 0.0 16.7
Holiday park 0.1 0.1 6.9 0.1 0.1 18.8
Hotel and motel 1.8 2.4 6.8 1.3 2.6 18.3
Others 0.0 0.0 6.7 0.0 0.0 18.5
Leisure Entertainment 1.3 1.7 6.5 1.0 1.8 16.5
Visitor attraction 0.2 0.3 6.8 0.2 0.3 16.8
Mobile operator Other mobile operators 0.1 0.1 6.7 0.1 0.1 11.7
Vans 0.1 0.2 6.7 0.1 0.2 11.8
Restaurant Full service restaurant 7.9 10.3 6.8 6.8 11.3 13.3
Quick service restaurant and fast food 7.2 9.3 6.8 6.9 10.3 10.5
Retail Baker 0.3 0.4 6.6 0.3 0.5 11.6
Convenience store 1.5 1.9 6.5 1.4 2.2 11.7
Delicatessen 0.6 0.7 6.4 0.5 0.8 12.3
Garden and home improvement centres 0.1 0.1 6.5 0.1 0.1 13.8
Other retail 0.1 0.2 6.6 0.1 0.2 13.8
Service station forecourt 7.0 9.1 6.6 6.8 10.6 11.7
Supermarket and hypermarket 2.3 3.0 6.6 2.0 3.3 13.7
Travel Air 0.8 1.1 6.5 0.5 1.1 19.8
Coach 0.0 0.0 6.9 0.0 0.1 16.9
Rail 0.0 0.0 6.8 0.0 0.0 20.6
Sea 0.7 0.9 6.9 0.5 1.0 20.0
Workplace Government department and local authority 1.0 1.3 6.4 0.9 1.5 12.7
Industrial 1.3 1.6 6.4 1.1 1.8 13.6
Retail, financial and office based 2.3 2.9 6.5 1.7 3.2 16.5

Source: GlobalData Intelligence Center: Foodservice, 2020

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Forecast period (2020-2024): pre-COVID-19 estimates

Product launch and trend analysis - food products that contain granola in North America

According to Mintel's Global New Products Database (GNPD), there were 422 new launches of granola and granola bar products in Canada between January 2016 and October 2020. In 2020, the top categories of granola and granola bar products offered were breakfast cereals, snacks, dairy, bakery and chocolate confectionery. The top claims (may contain more than one claim per package) were kosher, wholegrain, ethical and low/no/reduced allergen. The top five parent companies were PepsiCo, General Mills, Nature's Path Foods, George Weston and Loblaws. The top ingredients identified were rolled oats, natural "x" flavourings, white sugar, salt and honey.

New product launches of granola and granola bar products in Canada, January 2016 to October 2020
Product attributes Yearly launch count
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (January-October)
Yearly product launches 102 80 77 100 63
Top five categories
Breakfast cereals 50 42 33 53 28
Snacks 45 37 32 43 29
Dairy 2 0 7 1 3
Bakery 2 1 4 2 3
Chocolate confectionery 3 0 1 0 0
Top five claims
Kosher 50 50 51 52 38
Wholegrain 46 43 44 56 33
Ethical - environmentally friendly package 43 34 43 39 32
Ethical - recycling 41 34 41 39 29
Low/no/reduced allergen 27 37 33 38 26
Imported status
Imported 21 31 24 33 22
Not imported 34 17 21 34 21
Top five companies (parent)
PepsiCo 13 7 8 15 2
General Mills 10 10 4 12 7
Nature's Path Foods 3 15 10 4 2
George Weston 3 8 11 0 2
Loblaws 3 8 11 0 2
Top five launch types
New packaging 39 36 25 31 33
New variety / range extension 23 29 33 36 9
New product 34 7 15 22 13
Relaunch 4 7 4 11 8
New formulation 2 1 0 0 0
Top five flavours (including blend)
Chocolate 10 7 10 5 8
Unflavoured/plain 5 3 5 4 4
Honey 6 1 3 2 4
Berry 2 6 4 0 1
S'mores 3 1 3 1 0
Top five ingredients
Rolled oats 65 52 54 57 30
Natural x flavourings 63 36 41 59 40
White sugar 60 44 44 57 32
Salt 63 37 40 55 40
Honey 60 30 38 48 26
Source: Mintel, 2020

According to Mintel's Global New Products Database (GNPD), there were 1,338 launches of granola and granola bar products in the US between January 2016 and October 2020. In 2020, the top categories of granola and granola bar products offered were breakfast cereals, snacks, dairy, bakery, and desserts and ice cream. The top claims (may contain more than one claim per package) were kosher, wholegrain, GMO free, low/no/reduced allergen and gluten free. The top five parent companies were General Mills, Aldi Group, PepsiCo, Quaker Oats and Aldi. The top ingredients identified were salt, natural "x" flavourings, honey, white sugar and rolled oats.

New product launches of granola and granola bars products in the United States, January 2016 to October 2020
Product attributes Yearly launch count
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (January-October)
Yearly product launches 288 303 217 265 265
Top five categories
Breakfast cereals 132 164 116 153 166
Snacks 135 126 87 92 77
Dairy 12 6 6 5 8
Bakery 2 5 3 3 7
Desserts and ice cream 2 0 4 9 3
Top five claims
Kosher 163 180 139 189 130
Wholegrain 151 179 119 115 127
GMO free 123 125 100 136 159
Low/no/reduced allergen 92 71 77 106 146
Gluten free 81 63 76 98 121
Imported status
Not imported 53 38 31 47 53
Imported 57 48 35 38 27
Top five companies (parent)
General Mills 34 32 32 35 26
Aldi Group 28 18 1 10 17
PepsiCo 13 15 13 15 6
Quaker Oats 12 14 13 14 6
Aldi 21 10 0 9 15
Top five launch types
New variety / range extension 110 75 86 98 107
New packaging 86 117 55 86 67
New product 67 76 54 64 75
Relaunch 23 29 19 17 16
New formulation 2 6 3 0 0
Top five flavours (including blend)
Chocolate 23 23 15 18 20
Honey 18 21 12 15 7
Chocolate and peanut butter 9 9 10 8 6
Unflavoured/plain 9 3 8 7 7
Peanut butter 6 7 6 5 4
Top five ingredients
Salt 173 178 123 142 120
Natural x flavourings 160 167 112 143 131
Honey 148 165 91 139 92
White sugar 148 164 96 124 99
Rolled oats 144 160 90 102 105
Source: Mintel, 2020

Product examples – Canada

Apple Fruit Crumble Granola Bars
Source: Mintel 2020
Company PepsiCo
Brand Quaker Chewy
Sub-category Snack / Cereal / Energy Bars
Store name Real Canadian Superstore
Store type Supermarket
Date published October 2019
Launch type New packaging
Price in local currency $1.66

Quaker Chewy Apple Fruit Crumble Granola Bars have been repackaged. The product is said to be made with 100% Canadian oats and real fruit, is free from artificial flavours and colours, and has been produced in a peanut-free facility. It contains 10 grams of wholegrain per portion, and retails in a 156-gram recyclable pack containing six 26-gram units.

Dark Chocolate Granola Bars
Source: Mintel 2020
Company General Mills
Brand Nature Valley Sweet & Salty
Sub-category Snack / Cereal / Energy Bars
Import status Imported product
Store name Walmart
Date published July 2019
Launch type New packaging
Price in local currency $2.47

Nature Valley Sweet & Salty Dark Chocolate Granola Bars have been repackaged in a newly designed pack. The chewy nut granola bars dipped in chocolate coating are made with wholegrains and chocolate chunks, and contain no artificial colours or flavours. The product retails in a recyclable 175-gram pack containing 5 35-gram units.

Apple Chia Crumble Premium Organic Granola
Source: Mintel 2020
Company Nature's Path Foods
Brand Nature's Path Organic Love Crunch
Sub-category Cold Cereals
Market Canada
Import status Imported product
Store name Metro
Date published April 2018
Launch type New variety/range extension
Price in local currency $4.99

Nature's Path Organic Love Crunch Apple Chia Crumble Premium Organic Granola is wholegrain and made with pecans, green apples, chia and cinnamon. It is low in sodium; free from cholesterol, GMOs, chemical herbicides and pesticides, synthetic preservatives and additives' contains 0 grams transfat; is a source of omega 3 polyunsaturates; and is suitable for vegans. This kosher-certified product retails in a 325-gram pack featuring the Twitter and Facebook logos. The manufacturer claims that for every purchase, it will donate an equal amount to food banks in food or cash through its Bite4Bite program.

Product examples – United States

Dried Cranberries Granola Snack Clusters
Source: Mintel 2020
Company Ocean Spray Cranberries
Brand Ocean Spray Craisins
Sub-category Snack / Cereal / Energy Bars
Store name Meijer
Date published October 2018
Launch type New packaging
Price in local currency $3.99

Ocean Spray Craisins Dried Cranberries Granola Snack Clusters have been repackaged with a new look. These clusters are made with sweetened dried cranberries and wholegrain rolled oats, and are said to combine crunchy granola with sweet chewy cranberries for a wholesome snack. They are made with real fruit and are free from artificial flavours, preservatives and colours. This product is said to be perfect for snacking and retails in a 5-ounce resealable pack bearing the Facebook, Pinterest and Twitter logos. According to the manufacturer, 100% of the profits go to the farmers.

Oats, Honey, Raisins & Almonds Granola
Source: Mintel 2020
Company Quaker Oats
Brand Quaker Simply Granola
Sub-category Cold Cereals
Store name Meijer
Date published September 2019
Launch type New packaging
Price in local currency $4.59

Quaker Simply Granola Oats, Honey, Raisins & Almonds Granola is now available in newly designed packaging. This 100% wholegrain product is said to feature the great taste of real almonds and honey, have a satisfying crunch, and contains 5 g of total fat and 32 g or more of wholegrains per serving. The kosher certified granola is made with genuine whole grain Quaker oats which provide a good source of fiber and energy to keep one going, and is free from artificial flavours and added colours. It retails in an updated 28 oz. recyclable pack featuring the Facebook and Twitter logos. According to the manufacturer, diets rich in whole grain foods and other plant foods and low in saturated fat and cholesterol may help reduce the risk of heart disease.

Chocolate Almond Sea Salt Chewy Granola Bars
Source: Mintel 2020
Company Kashi
Brand Kashi
Sub-category Snack / Cereal / Energy Bars
Store name Lunds & Byerlys
Date published November 2019
Launch type New packaging
Price in local currency $3.00

Kashi Chocolate Almond Sea Salt Chewy Granola Bars have been repackaged. This kosher product is described as sweet and salty, with 4 grams of fibre and 13 grams of whole grains per serving, and is non-GMO, and vegan. This product is said to not only taste good, but does good too by increasing the amount of responsibly sourced cocoa and paying a premium on the chocolate which will help the cocoa farmers implement responsible agricultural practices, thereby improving livelihoods and keeping the soil healthy for future generations. The product retails in a partially recyclable 7.4-ounce pack made with certified 100% recycled paperboard, containing 6 1.2-ounce units and bearing the Non-GMO Project Verified logos.

Conclusion

Although, the impact of COVID-19 on global trade is significant, trade data shows that Canadian agriculture has been resilient to the pandemic crisis. For the first nine months of 2020 (January to September), Canadian agri-food and seafood exports increased by 8.2%, reaching Can$54.9 billion compared with Can$50.7 billion for the same period last year. Facing significant uncertainty caused by the pandemic, sales in the Canadian bakery industry are expected to fully recover to pre-pandemic growth in the second quarter of 2021 that will be supported by an economic rebound in the foodservice industry, along with a robust increase in domestic and export demand (Export Development Canada, Farm Credit Canada, 2020).

Consumers are looking for healthy and nutritional values from baked products without compromising the sensory attributes (Mintel, 2020). This trend may continue to rise during these tough economic times; as consumers continue to adjust their eating habits at home and have more time to prepare balanced, wholesome, guilt-free (sugar-free, natural and better-for-you claim) meals. However, for those affected by economic difficulties (even with government support packages in effect), there will be a need for low-priced, larger bulk pack-sized products that provide high value-for-money (GlobalData, 2020).

Due to global logistics being disrupted by the availability of staff, ingredients and materials, some firms are switching production to alternative categories and are struggling to keep up with demand to meet consumer preferences. Direct-to-consumer (D2C) delivery options facilitated by online technology and service partners are becoming key in this new global pandemic. Surveys find that many Canadian and American consumers have adopted new digital and contactless food shopping habits and will continue these purchasing habits after the pandemic (McKinsey, 2020).

Furthermore, reported changes in consumer views are changing, often on a weekly basis, due to the uncertainties about the outcome of the COVID-19 situation. The "new normal" is still unknown at this point; however, surveys are showing that both Canadian and American consumers are being mindful of their spending and saving habits (McKinsey, 2020), and are often taking a simpler outlook of what they need and refraining from buying non-essential products. Staple foods that are showing increases in retail sales value are in food categories such as frozen alternatives, pasta and noodles, syrups and spreads, soups, bakery items and pulses. Non-essential foods that are decreasing in sales at the moment includingde soft and hot non-alcoholic drinks, alcoholic beverages such as beer/cider/wine and spirits, baby milks, meat, confectionery (especially chocolate), certain dairy, and oils and fats. Overall, the top two key factors currently influencing consumer buying habits are familiarity (59%) and time and money constraints (58%), while impacts on health and well-being (58%) are still top of mind (GlobalData, 2020).

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Prepared by: Zhiduo Wang, Market Analyst

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