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Consumer profile – France

January 2020

Executive summary

France is the seventh largest economy in the world by a gross domestic product (GDP) ranking, and is characterized by a broad consumer base that is varied and sophisticated. The GDP figure in 2018 was US$2.8 trillion with an 1.7% annual GDP growth.

In 2018, its population was approximately 67.1 million people and is expected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.3% during the period of 2019-2023. About 80.4% of the population was located in urban areas in 2018. There was a total of 1.1 million people living in the cities of France (Toulon, Lens, Metz, Avignon).

The average fertility rate in France was 2.06 per female, equivalent to 12.1 children born per thousand people of the population at mid-year in 2018. France's fertility rates continue to decrease, along with a rising life expectancy, and the result is an aging society, where the aging population

aged over 65 years represented 19.8% in 2018 and is expected to increase to 21.3% by 2023.

The unemployment rate was one of the highest in the European Union (EU) at 9.1% in 2018, representing approximately 2.7 million unemployed people in France. The age group most affected are those between 15-24 years, yet with new training initiatives undertaken by the government, the unemployment rate has slowly decreased by a CAGR of −3.2% from 2014-18 and is expected to decrease at a CAGR of −3.2% from 2019-23.

In 2018, total consumer expenditure per capita on food and beverages was US$2,232, out of which 65.1% was spent on food and 34.9% on both

non-alcoholic beverages and alcoholic drinks. The French have a high purchasing power, where they buy often and are demanding new and innovative products that are healthier, organic, sustainable, convenient and are transparent.

Key demographic indicators

Frances's population was approximately 67.1 million people in 2018, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.4% during the period of 2014-2018 and is expected to slightly decline at a rate of 0.3% from the period of 2019-2023. Over three-quarters of the population (80.4%) were living in urban areas throughout France, while 19.6% were living in rural areas in 2018. The population is expected to grow by approximately one million people and reach a total of 68.2 million by 2023.

France's urban population 2014-2023 ('000), historical/forecast
Category 2014 2018 CAGR* % 2014-2018 2019 2023 CAGR* % 2019-2023
Urban population 52,551.1 54,014.9 0.7 54,364.6 55,733.5 0.6
Urban population as % of total 79.4 80.4 0.3 80.7 81.8 0.3
Rural population 13,639.2 13,131.1 −0.9 12,994.2 12,419.5 −1.1
Rural population as % of total 20.6 19.6 −1.3 19.3 18.2 −1.4
Total population 66,190.3 67,145.9 0.4 67,358.8 68,153.0 0.3

Source: GlobalData Intelligence, 2019

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

In 2018, there was a total of 1.1 million people living in the cities of France (Toulon, Lens, Metz, Avignon). Approximately, 65% of the population was situated in Metropolitan regions throughout France including Paris, Marseille, Lille, Lyon and Bordeaux.

Population in cities and major metropolitan areas in France 2014-2023 ('000), historical/forecast
City 2014 2018 CAGR* % 2014-2018 2019 2023 CAGR* % 2019-2023
Toulon 429.1 433.2 0.2 434.0 436.5 0.1
Lens 243.0 244.3 0.1 244.5 245.3 0.1
Metz 215.9 215.8 0.0 215.8 215.7 0.0
Avignon 181.4 184.0 0.3 184.3 186.0 0.2
Total - city population 1,069.5 1,077.1 0.2 1,078.5 1,083.3 0.1

Source: GlobalData Intelligence, 2019

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

In 2018, the male-to-female population in France was distributed almost evenly with slightly more females (51.4%) over males (48.6%). The median age in France was 41.5 years. By 2023, the median age of the total population is expected to reach 42.1 years of age.

From 2014 to 2018, the population aged over 65 years grew the most at a CAGR of 2.3% and is expected to continue to increase by a CAGR of 1.8% in contrast to those aged 0-64 years, who are forecast to decline between 2019-2023.

France has a positive net immigration figure, whereby the official net migration figure reported that there were 72,080 more people entering the country versus those leaving France in 2018. However, the number of illegal immigrants is not known, and even though most asylum seekers don't gain official status, most of these immigrants end up settling in the country anyway. There have been a surge in asylum claims over the last 5 years, continuing into the 2019 year.Footnote 1

France's population by age group 2014-2023 ('000), historical/forecast
Category 2014 2018 CAGR* % 2014-2018 2019 2023 CAGR* % 2019-2023
Male population (%) 48.6 48.6 0.0 48.6 48.7 0.0
Female population (%) 51.4 51.4 0.0 51.4 51.3 −0.0
Population under 15 years 12,378.2 12,409.1 0.1 12,409.7 12,307.3 −0.2
Population aged 15-64 years 41,685.6 41,429.7 −0.2 41,381.1 41,271.5 −0.1
Population aged over 65 years 12,126.5 13,307.1 2.3 13,568.0 14,574.2 1.8
Median age of population 40.9 41.5 0.4 41.6 42.1 0.3
Net migration 72,222 72,080 0.0 72,344 72,597 0.1
Total population 66,190.3 67,145.9 0.4 67,358.8 68,153.0 0.3

Source: GlobalData Intelligence, 2019

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

France's vital statistics

The average fertility rate in France was 2.06 per female, equivalent to 12.1 children born per thousand people of the population at mid-year in 2018. France's fertility rate has and is expected to continue to decline by a CAGR of −0.8% from 2014 through to 2023, with a decline to 11.6 births per thousand people and a fertility rate of 2.02 per female by 2023.

In France, the average life expectancy at birth was 82.0 years of age in 2018, expected to increase to 82.4 years of age by 2023. According to Eurostat statistics, in 2017, France's average life expectancy was one of the highest in the European Union (EU), along with its fertility rate. Life expectancy at birth in the EU28 was estimated at 80.9 years (0.1 years lower than 2016), reaching 83.5 years for women (down by 0.1 years) and 78.3 years for men (up by 0.1 years). Taking a closer look, in 2017, once a man had reached the age of 65, he could, on average, expect to live between another 14.1 years (as in Bulgaria and Latvia), and 19.6 years in France. The life expectancy of women at age 65 was higher, where the average expectancy in the EU28 ranged from 17.8 years in Bulgaria to 23.6 years in France.Footnote 2

According to GlobalData, however, due to declining fertility rates in France, along with rising life expectancy will result in an aging society, where the population aged over 65 years represented 19.8% in 2018, and is expected to increase to 21.3% by 2023. With declining fertility rates along with an increase in aging populace, France's working age population will, also, see a decline.The working age population (15-64 age group) was measured at 64.9% of the total population in 2008, which has reduced to 61.7% in 2018 and is forecast to decline further to 60.6% by 2023.

France's demographic trends, 2014-2023, historic/forecast
Category 2014 2018 CAGR* % 2014-2018 2019 2023 CAGR* % 2019-2023
Total live births in calendar year 827,575 816,088 −0.4 809,986 793,089 −0.5
Birth rate (per 1,000 population at mid-year) 12.5 12.1 −0.8 12.0 11.6 −0.8
Infant mortality rate under one year of age (per 1,000 live births) 3.3 3.2 −0.8 3.2 3.1 −0.8
Average fertility rate 2.08 2.06 −0.2 2.06 2.02 −0.5
Average life expectancy at birth 81.7 82.0 0.1 82.1 82.4 0.1
Total deaths in calendar year 602,332 631,172 1.2 639,909 667,900 1.1
Death rate (per 1000 population during a year) 9.1 9.4 0.8 9.5 9.8 0.8
Total population 66,190.3 67,145.9 0.4 67,358.8 68,153.0 0.3

Source: GlobalData Intelligence, 2019

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Household structure in France

In 2016, the number of households in France was approximately 30 million and the largest number of households without children (20,660,351) were inhabited by one person only (10,553,129). As the number of households increases in France, reaching approximately 30.8 million by the end of 2021, it is forecasted that the number of households without children (21,507,876) will continue to exceed the number of households with children (8,867,629) by more than 50%.

Number of people per household in France from 2012-2021 ('000), historic/forecast
Type 2012 2016 CAGR* % 2012-2016 2017 2021 CAGR* % 2017-2021
Number of households 29,011.0 30,047.1 0.9 30,210.4 30,789.4 0.5
Number of households without children 20,162.6 20,660.8 0.6 20,881.1 21,507.9 0.7
Number of households with children 8,848.3 9,066.8 0.6 8,989.1 8,867.6 −0.3
Number of households with one person 10,037.8 10,553.1 1.3 N/A N/A
Number of households with two people 9,776.7 9,780.2 0.0 N/A N/A
Number of households with three+ people 9,225.5 9,423.5 0.5 N/A N/A

Source: GlobalData Intelligence, 2019

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

N/A: Not Available

Economic indicators

The GDP figure in 2018 was US$2,778.0 billion, positioning France 7th in the ranking of GDP of 196 countries published with an 1.7% annual GDP growth. Of note, the absolute value of GDP in France rose by US$191,319 million with respect to 2017.Footnote 3

In 2018, the unemployment rate was one of the highest in the EU at 9.1%, representing approximately 2.7 million unemployed people in France. Most of the French neighbouring countries have a lower unemployment rate, with the exception of Spain. The age group most affected are those aged between

15-24 years, equivalent to 20.1% who are unemployed in 2018. The unemployment rate has slowly decreased by a CAGR of −3.2% between 2014 and 2018 and is expected to continue to decrease by an additional CAGR of −3.2% (2019 to 2023), to reach an unemployment rate of 7.7% in 2023. According to GlobalData, initiatives taken by the government, such as providing training to upgrade the skills of jobseekers, offering hiring subsidies to the employers, and reducing social security contributions are expected to boost employment by increasing the number of new jobs available in the country.Footnote 4

The French government increased national minimum wage to US$1,715 per month effective January 1, 2018, representing an 1% increase from 2017, which is expected to encourage private consumption in France.

France's economic figures, US$ from 2014-2023, historic/forecast
Category 2014 2018 CAGR* % 2014-2018 2019 2023 CAGR* % 2019-2023
GDP, current prices (billions) 2,854.0 2,778.0 −0.7 2,755.7 3,196.1 3.8
Real annual GDP growth (%) 1.0 1.7 14.5 1.3 1.5 3.3
Total unemployment ('000) 3,059.1 2,685.7 −3.2 2,624.9 2,275.3 −3.5
Age group, 15-24 years (%) 23.5 20.1 −3.8 N/A N/A
Age group, 25-54 years (%) 8.8 7.8 −3.1 N/A N/A
Age group, 55-64 years (%) 7.3 6.7 −3.1 N/A N/A
Total unemployment rate (%) 10.3 9.1 −3.2 8.8 7.7 −3.2

Source: GlobalData Intelligence, 2019

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

N/A: Not Available

Food and beverage expenditures

In 2018, total consumer expenditure per capita on food and beverages was US$1,877.2, out of which 77.4% was spent on food and 22.6% on both non-alcoholic beverages and alcholic drinks. According to GlobalData, rising private consumption and growth in exports will drive the French economy. The nominal household consumption expenditure rate increased from 1.8% in 2016 to 2.8% in 2018 and is forecast to increase to 2.9% by 2023. According to the Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs, exports have also increased in 2017 by 4.5% to stand at US$541.6 billion.Footnote 4

Per capita consumer expenditure on packaged food is expected to have a CAGR of 5.9% from 2019 to 2022 and is said to represent 17% of household expenditures in 2017. In 2018, Canada exported US$101.8 million to France in processed food and beverages. Trade opportunities exist in commodities such as fish & seafood products, frozen fruit, maple syrup, ice cider etc.

The French consumers are ready to pay a premium for better quality, food safety and convenient products, while previously before 2016, they always looked for cheaper products.Footnote 5 According to GlobalData, the retail value of packaged food sales continued to grow in France representing approximately US$227.4 billion in 2018 and are forecasted to reach US$250.5 billion by 2023, representing a CAGR of 2.0% for the 2019 to 2023 period. In 2018, French consumers spent the most on staple foods such as meat, bakery & cereals, and dairy & soy packaged food products. Meat substitutes and ice cream are forecast to grow the most between 2019 and 2022.

Challenges exist in the non-alcoholic drinks category. French consumer tastes and preferences have become more conscious about the quality and pay greater attention to the sugar and calorie content of the soft drinks they consume. Furthermore, France's soft drinks market is mature and highly competitive, and is challenged by consumer preferences that are changing in line with the ongoing health and wellness trend. In response to the latest consumer trends for the introduction of healthier soft drinks, encouraged further by a "second sugar tax" in France where suppliers must now adjust to a new tiered tax which varies according to sugar content, manufacturers are more driven towards the introduction of new product developments and innovations in this sector. Brands such as Coca-Cola drew widespread criticism for chosing to simply reduce bottle sizes without lowering the sugar content per bottle. Also, as of March 2019, the government also introduced restrictions on promotions and discounting in the retail channel that is expected to lead to higher than average unit prices in the branded soft drinks segment in particular. Private label product drink alternatives stand to benefit on this negative impact on sales volumes for premium priced brands.Footnote 6

In 2018, the hot summer, helped to boost sales volumes in packaged water, still drinks, and iced/ready-to-drink (RTD) tea or coffee beverages. Those drinks perceived as being unhealthy with high sugar content decreased between 2014 and 2018, including fruit powders with a CAGR of −6.3%, nectars (−5.3%), carbonates (−4.6%) and sports drinks (−4.3%). Additionally, established and standard flavours like plain, lemon, lime (waters), cola, orange, clear lemonade (colas) and orange, flavor mixes, apple (juices/still drinks) were significantly less popular than emerging flavors. Instead, pomegranate (156.7%), lime (403.5%) and clear lemonade (69.0%) were the top emerging flavors with the most amount of success in the beverage market for waters, carbonates, and juices/still drinks, respectively.Footnote 6

Consumption expenditure per household in France, historic fixed current prices in US$, 2013-2017
Category 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 CAGR* (%) 2013-2017
Final household consumption expenditure: food (US$ millions) 224,296.5 225,023.7 228,753.6 234,824.8 241,407.7 0.0
Number of households ('000) 29,292.1 29,549.2 29,800.6 30,047.1 30,210.4 0.8
Final household expenditure: food (per household) 7,657.2 7,611.0 7,686.9 7,842.3 8,015.1 1.1
Final household expenditure: food (%) 16.9 16.8 16.8 16.9 17.0 0.2

Source: GlobalData Intelligence, 2019

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Per capita expenditure on food and beverages in France, historic/forecast by category, using fixed 2018 rates in US$, 2014-2023
Category 2015 2018[e] CAGR* (%) 2015-2018 2019 2022 CAGR* (%) 2019-2022
Packaged food 1,296.0 1,452.2 12.1 1,491.6 1,580.0 5.9
Meat 290.3 317.4 3.0 321.2 329.9 0.9
Bakery and cereals 234.9 259.7 3.4 266.0 272.6 0.8
Dairy and soy food 191.8 214.0 3.7 219.9 234.0 2.1
Fish and seafood 112.9 129.0 4.5 133.7 145.1 2.8
Confectionery 99.4 110.9 3.7 113.9 121.0 2.0
Prepared meals 76.8 83.3 2.8 84.6 87.4 1.1
Savory and deli foods 68.6 79.5 5.0 82.7 91.1 3.3
Seasonings, dressings and sauces 40.7 46.0 4.2 47.6 52.1 3.0
Ice cream 34.8 44.4 8.5 47.6 56.9 6.2
Savory snacks 25.0 29.8 6.1 31.4 35.1 3.8
Syrups and spreads 25.9 29.8 4.8 31.1 34.1 3.2
Oils and fats 20.4 24.5 6.2 25.6 28.6 3.7
Other frozen food 22.0 23.9 2.9 24.4 25.5 1.5
Pasta and noodles 17.5 19.8 4.2 20.4 21.9 2.4
Other canned food 17.2 19.0 3.4 19.3 19.8 0.8
Soups 11.6 13.8 5.9 14.4 16.0 3.6
Other dried food 5.1 5.7 4.0 5.9 6.3 2.4
Meat substitutes 1.1 1.7 15.5 1.9 2.6 10.7
Non-alcoholic drinks 319.6 345.7 2.7 352.0 365.0 1.2
Soft drinks[1] 213.1 231.9 2.9 236.5 246.0 1.3
Hot drinks: coffee, tea and other 106.5 113.8 2.2 115.5 119.0 1.0
Alcoholic beverages 78.3 79.3 0.4 79.5 80.5 0.4
Beer and cider 31.5 33.7 2.3 34.4 36.4 1.9
Spirits 5.6 5.4 −1.5 5.2 5.1 −1.0
Wine 41.2 40.3 −0.8 39.9 39.0 −0.8
Total consumption expenditure on food and beverages 1,693.9 1,877.2 10.8 1,923.1 2,025.5 5.3

Source: GlobalData Intelligence, 2019

e: Estimated values

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

1: Includes bulk/hot-on-demand, enhanced, flavored and packaged water; carbonates; fruit powders, juices, nectars and squash/syrups; energy, still, sports and iced/ready-to-drink coffee/tea drinks.

Consumer trends and opportunities

French consumers enjoy a high spending power

France stands out whereby French consumers are quite well-off and have high purchasing power, falling within the top fifty spenders throughout the world in terms of GDP per capita expenditure (US$42,300 in 2016). They buy often and are willing to try new and innovative products, more so in the entertainment, culture and gifts sectors. In regards to food and beverages, French people prefer to buy local, high-quality and organic products. Although, quality is more important than price, it is the quality of the after-sales service of trademark branded labels, that often determine the French consumers willingness to buy again. They are concerned about respecting the environment and their preferences are changing in line with ongoing health and wellness choices.Footnote 7

France is the most visited country in the world attracting almost 87 million tourists in 2017, and 90 million in 2018.Footnote 8 Additionally, major high-end restaurants in France enjoy a customer base made from more than 80% foreigners, of whom are big spenders. Although, the hotel, restaurant and institution (HRI) sector is still developing, there are major opportunities in the commodity sector, the ingredients (business to business B2B) sector, and the foodservice sector such as hotel and catering services.

Interests in sustainable development and responsible consumption is growing rapidly

The number of French people interested in sustainable development and responsible consumption is growing rapidly. Online purchases are on the increase and carefully packaged, creative, yet appealing products are of great preference to the French consumer. Moreover, the consumption of organic and fair trade products is also on the rise. Presently, France offers the second biggest organic agriculture in the European Union (EU).Footnote 7

Furthermore, according to feedback from Canada's Trade commission service in France, the French along with many other European countries are often very proud of their products. In France, there is a permanent doubt and lack of trust about imported food products, even from the rest of the EU. In fact, many public sector procurement contracts now have imposed additional clause requirements to ensure there is a minimum percentage met for the number of both agricultural or organic products that are sourced locally.

In 2018, the issue of plastic pollution has generated significant media attention and many French consumers have adjusted their purchasing decisions to cut down on waste by choosing eco-friendly packaged products. France has put pressure on soft drink manufacturers to invest in new technologies, to process materials that have a higher level of recyclability or improved biodegradation.Footnote 6

Organic health and wellness products are increasingly in demand

The health and wellness (H&W) market in France for packaged food and non-alcoholic beverages was US$20.3 billion in 2018. Although, 'naturally healthy' (NH) was the largest food and beverage product attribute at a combined total of US$10.1 billion, the organic category has a high presence in France.

According to GlobalData Intelligence, in 2018, France was the 5th largest country globally in retail value terms for organic food products (US$1.1B) and the 2nd largest for sales of organic non-alcoholic beverages (US$159.8M). The United States (US) was the largest market in both the organic food & drink sectors (US$10.6B and US$1.1B, respectively), followed by the United Kingdom (US$1.9B), Germany (US$1.8B) and Austria (US$1.5B) over France in the organic food sector.

H&W attributes such as NH and consumer benefits such as 'general wellbeing' are expected to contribute the most to the growth of the H&W French market during the 2018 to 2023 period. Also, appealing growth opportunities exist in small but fast growing niche segments within the beverage category, which are perceived as being high quality products with H&W attributes, including coconut water, high pressure processing juices or kombucha drinks.Footnote 7

Health and wellness sector by category distribution of food and beverages in France - 2018 retail value sales in current fixed US$
Description of this image follows.
Description of above image
  • Naturally Healthy (NH): US$10.1 billion (49.7%)
  • Free from: US$3.2 billion (16.0%)
  • Food minus: US$2.8 billion (13.7%)
  • Fortified/functional (FF): US$2.2 billion (11.0%)
  • Organic: US$1.2 billion (6.0%)
  • Food intolerance (FI): US$730.9 million (3.6%)

Source: GlobalData Intelligence, 2019

Health and wellness market in France - historical and forecast retail value sales in US$ millions, using fixed 2018 rates
Product attribute category 2015 2018 CAGR* (%) 2015-2018 2019 2022 CAGR* (%) 2019-2022
Health and wellness (H&W) packaged food 10,041.9 10,483.9 1.3 10,700.7 11,376.8 2.1
Naturally healthy (NH) 2,872.3 3,026.9 1.5 3,093.4 3,295.7 2.1
Free from 2,293.2 2,520.2 2.7 2,606.5 2,865.9 3.2
Food minus 2,341.7 2,237.8 −1.0 2,235.4 2,244.5 0.1
Organic 1,022.1 1,059.4 0.9 1,076.7 1,126.5 1.5
Functional and fortified (FF) 838.1 908.8 2.1 931.9 1,011.7 2.8
Food intolerance (FI) 674.4 730.9 2.8 756.7 832.6 3.2
H&W non-alcoholic beverages 8,914.2 9,768.9 2.3 10,100.6 11,081.2 3.1
Naturally healthy (NH) 6,442.3 7,045.6 2.3 7,270.7 7,943.9 3.0
Functional and fortified (FF) 1,060.7 1,322.0 4.2 1,362.4 1,530.6 4.0
Free from 627.9 713.4 2.3 743.7 813.8 3.0
Food minus 667.9 528.1 −4.6 533.9 534.7 0.1
Organic 115.4 159.8 12.2 189.9 258.3 10.8
Total H&W food and beverages 18,956.1 20,252.7 1.8 20,801.3 22,458.1 2.6

Source: GlobalData Intelligence, 2019

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Conclusion

Many consumers in France have high purchasing power and there is high consumer demand for sustainability or ethical consumption, convenience, and transparency that drives demand for new ingredients and reformulation across all food and beverage categories. The French are also very proud of their local products and opportunities to export several agricultural commodities will be difficult, while having to gain trust over the quality of our Canadian brand.

Many French consumers are changing their food and beverage preferences in line with ongoing health and wellness options and are looking for high quality products that offer healthier and organic choices, with a more refreshing and flavorsome consumption experience. Manufacturers feel the need to increase the number of product innovations due to introduced government initiatives that try to enforce the reduction of the sugar content found in foods & beverages, that limit product promotional activities, along with changing consumer tastes towards leading a healthier, organic lifestyle.

For more information

International Trade Commissioners can provide Canadian industry with on-the-ground expertise regarding market potential, current conditions and local business contacts, and are an excellent point of contact for export advice.

For additional intelligence on this and other markets, the complete library of Global Analysis reports can be found on the International agri-food market intelligence page, arranged by region.

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ben.berry@canada.ca

Resources

Consumer profile – France
Global Analysis Report

Prepared by: Erin-Ann Chauvin, Market Analyst

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