Competitive Trade Analysis – Agri-food and seafood trends in Mexico

Trade overview

Mexico had a Can$14.4 billion trade surplus of agri-food and seafood products in 2019, with exports valued at Can$52.3 billion and imports at Can$37.9 billion. In 2019, the nation's top agri-food and seafood imports from the world were maize or corn; soya beans; meat of swine; meat and edible offal of fowls; and wheat and meslin. The largest five suppliers to the country were the United States, Canada, Brazil, Chile, and China, who accounted for Can$31.7 billion and 83.7% of the market share. The year also saw Canada's trade deficit reach Can$1.1 billion, its lowest point in five years. Between 2015 and 2019, there was an overall increase in imports with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.7% and an overall growth in the market of Can$5.2 billion.

The United States, followed by Canada, Brazil, Chile, and China were the top five exporting nations of agri-foods and seafood into Mexico in 2019. While the United States has traditionally been the dominant exporter to Mexico, its market share has seen a decline from 77% in 1998 to 70% in 2019. As the second largest exporter, Canada's control of the market averaged 6.9% during the same time period, peaking in 2004 at 8.5%.

From 2015 to 2019, Brazil saw the biggest gains in market share with a percent point (PP) difference of 2.2%. The United States saw the largest drop with a PP difference of −1.6%. During this five year span Brazil and New Zealand had the highest surge in CAGRs of 37.5% and 7.2% respectively. Reflecting these changes during this time, Brazil saw the largest increase in value of exports into Mexico by 257.6%, whereas Chile saw the largest drop, falling by 2.1%.

In 2019, Canada's import supply gap to Mexico was Can$35.5 billion, which had a CAGR of 3.9% between 2015 and 2019.

Mexico's top five global imports for 2019, were maize or corn; soya beans; meat of swine; meat and edible offal of fowls; and wheat and meslin. Within the top 15 imported products, the greatest increase in demand from 2015 to 2019 was for soya beans at 44.7%. The greatest decrease was for rape and colza seed, which fell by −23.2%.

The leading 3 export categories of Canadian agri-food and seafood products to Mexico were rape or colza seeds; meat of swine; and wheat and meslin. These combined commodities accounted for 53.4% of Canada's agri-food and seafood export market share to Mexico at a worth of Can$1.2 billion. In Canada's top fifteen export commodities to Mexico, the fastest growing product values between 2015 and 2019 were oats, which grew by 245.1% and had a CAGR of 36.3%. Rape or colza seeds saw the greatest loss with a −22.8% plunge and a −6.3% CAGR.

Top 15 agri-food and seafood imports

1. Maize or corn (HS 1005)

Canada was Mexico's 15th largest maize or corn provider with imports valued at Can$100 in 2019. Imports from the world increased at a CAGR of 7.7% between 2015 and 2019. Canada saw a sharp decline in its CAGR at −68.9%, with a market share that stayed at almost 0% from 2015 to 2019.

2. Soya beans (1201)

Canada provided no imports of soya beans from 2016 to 2019. Imports from the world increased at a CAGR of 9.7% between 2015 and 2019.

3. Meat of swine (HS 0203)

Canada was Mexico's 2nd largest meat of swine supplier (after the United States) with imports valued at Can$352.6 million in 2019. Imports from the world increased at a CAGR of 6.8% between 2015 and 2019. Canada had a CAGR of 11.8%, with a market share of 14.4% in 2015 that grew to 17.2% in 2019.

4. Meat and edible offal of fowls (HS 0207)

Canada was Mexico's 4th largest supplier of meat and edible offal of fowls with imports valued at Can$1.4 million in 2019. Imports from the world increased at a CAGR of 3.3% between 2015 and 2019. Canada had a CAGR of 43.1%, with a market share increase from 0.0% in 2015 to 0.1% in 2019.

5. Wheat and meslin (HS 1001)

Canada was the 2nd largest exporter to Mexico with wheat and meslin in 2019 at a value of Can$249.4 million. Between 2015 to 2019, imports from the world increased at a CAGR of 3.6%. During this same period the CAGR of Canadian wheat and meslin exports was −3.8%, with Canadian market share falling from 22.2% in 2015 to 16.5% in 2019.

6. Milk and cream (HS 0402)

In 2019, Canada was ranked as the 6th largest supplier of milk and cream to Mexico with imports valued at Can$8.4 million in 2019. From 2015 to 2019, the export market to Mexico had a CAGR of 9.0%. Canadian exports saw a decrease with a CAGR of −6.9% during this 5 year period and a decrease in market share from 1.3% in 2015 to 0.7% in 2019.

7. Meat of bovine (HS 0201)

Canada was Mexico's 2nd largest supplier of meat of bovine with imports valued at Can$118.5 million in 2019. Imports from Canada decreased by a CAGR of −3.1% between 2015 and 2019, and saw its market share fall from 12.8% in 2015 down to 11.0% in 2019.

8. Food preparations (HS 2106)

Canada was Mexico's 13th largest supplier of food preparations with imports valued at Can$4.5 million. Canadian exports decreased by a CAGR of −17.1% between 2015 and 2019, with market share falling from 1.1% to 0.7% during this period.

9. Other sugars (HS 1702)

Canada was Mexico's 7th largest supplier of other sugars with imports valued at Can$2.4 million. Imports decreased by a CAGR of −13.4% between 2015 and 2019, with a market share of 0.3% in 2019, down from 0.5% in 2015.

10. Oilcake and other solid residues (HS 2304)

In 2019, Canada had no imports of oilcake and other solid residues to Mexico, while international imports were valued at Can$851.1 million.

11. Cheese and curd (HS 0406)

In 2019, Canada had no imports of cheese and curd to Mexico, while international imports were valued at Can$721.9 million.

12. Rape or colza seeds (HS1205)

In 2019, Canada was Mexico's largest supplier of rape or colza seeds imports valued at Can$658.5 million.

Rape or colza seeds sourced from Canada decreased by a CAGR of −6.3% from 2015 to 2019, with market share growing from 97.8% in 2015 to 98.2% in 2019.

13. Seeds, fruits and spores, for sowing(HS1209)

In 2019, Canada was Mexico's 32nd largest supplier of seeds, fruits and spores, for sowing with imports valued at Can$12,236 and had a CAGR from 2015 to 2019 of −10.1%. Mexico's overall import market in this category had a CAGR of 5.8%.

14. Residues of starch manufacture and similar residues, beet-pulp, wastes of sugar manufacturing, brewing or distilling dregs and waste (HS2303)

Canada did not export this product to Mexico. This category has seen a CAGR of 5.5%, between 2015 to 2019, with the United States holding the majority of the market share during this time.

15. Fish fillets and other fish meat (HS0304)

In 2019, Canada was Mexico's 14th largest supplier of fish fillets and other fish meat with imports valued at Can$199,121. Mexico's fish fillets and other fish meat imports from Canada increased by a CAGR of 111.9% from 2015 to 2019.

For more information

The Canadian Trade Commissioner Service:

International Trade Commissioners can provide Canadian industry with on-the-ground expertise regarding market potential, current conditions and local business contacts, and are an excellent point of contact for export advice.

• Overview of Trade Commissioner Services in Mexico
• Find a Trade Commissioner

For additional information please contact:

Ben Berry, Deputy Director
Trade Show Strategy and Delivery
Agriculture and agri-food Canada
ben.berry@canada.ca

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Competitive Trade Analysis – Agri-food and seafood trends in Mexico
Global Analysis Report

Prepared by: Suresh Srikant, Market Analyst

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