The Spanish meat market: A guide for Canadian business

This guide gives insight on the Spanish meat market with special focus on beef, veal and pork. It offers Canadian meat packers and exporters with practical information to judge the suitability of Spain’s meat market for their business goals.

This information is timely as the Canada-European Union (EU) Comprehensive and Economic Trade Agreement (CETA) entered into force in September 2017, presenting a huge opportunity for the Canadian meat industry. CETA removes EU import tariffs on 50,000 tonnes of Canadian beef and veal, 80,549 tonnes of Canadian pork and 3,000 tonnes of Canadian bison.

Note on research

This research was commissioned and overseen by the Embassy of Canada to Spain and its Trade Commissioners. A survey was carried out in December 2018 and January 2019 and is based on data extracted from different public and private sources, personal meetings with stakeholders, an online questionnaire addressed to main Spanish meat wholesalers and different store checks in meat retail stores.

Unless otherwise noted, the data, statistics and trends on the Spanish meat market have been sourced from the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentación).

The Government of Canada has prepared this report based on primary and secondary sources of information. Although every effort has been made to ensure that the information is accurate, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) assumes no liability for any actions taken based on the information contained herein.

Recommendations

For Canadian beef exporters

Selling Canadian beef in Spain should typically be through the big wholesalers. Retailers or foodservice companies would probably not be buying big volumes. With beef from the US or other origins like Australia, retailers and restaurants prefer sourcing the beef from their usual suppliers, the big wholesalers.

Spanish wholesalers would not be capable, in most cases, to purchase full container loads with all the cuts of the carcass. In the case that Canadian packers would need to sell the animal in its natural proportion (all cuts), and the Spanish importers would not be able to buy them all, any one of the major European meat importers could be contacted:

• Albers Food
• Giraudi Meats
• Inalca
• Jan Zandbergen
• Jbs London
• Nice To Meat
• Otto Gourmet
• Quabbas
• Tmt Taurus
• Tyson Foods London
• Zandberger World Finest Meat

Canadian exporters interested in the Spanish market should consider travelling to Spain, meeting with the main players, and collecting first-hand information and offer details about their products. Visiting Spanish trade shows would also be advisable, examples include:

• Alimentaria Barcelona
• Meat Attraction – The international trade show for the meat industry
• Salón de Gourmets – International fine food and beverages fair

Meat processors are not likely to buy Canadian grain-fed beef as it is too expensive of a product for processing.

For Canadian pork exporters

Selling Canadian pork products in Spain may prove to be difficult. Spain is a big producer and prices are quite competitive. Spanish consumers are used to high-quality Ibérico pork products and would probably not consider other origins for their purchases, unless the prices were very competitive.

Canadian pork exporters would need to find value-added products or sell directly to the processing industry. At this moment, and considering current production and prices, there seem be limited opportunities for Canadian pork in the Spanish market.

In the case of pork products, Canadian companies could contact the main processors:

• Argal Alimentación
• Campofrío Food Group
• Cárnica Batallé
• Cárnicas Serrano
• Carniques Julià
• Coren
• Corporación Alimentaria Guissona
• Elaborados Cárnicos Medina
• Elpozo Alimentación
• Embutidos Monells
• Esteban Espuña
• Famadesa
• Frescos Delisano
• Frimancha (Vall Companys)
• Friselva
• Grup Baucells Alimentació
• Grupo Jorge
• Grupo Valls Companys
• Incarlopsa
• Industrias Cárnicas La Cope
• Industrias Cárnicas Villar
• Noel Alimentaria
• Osi Food Solutions
• Palacios Alimentación
• Roler España

Summary analysis of the Spanish meat market

High-level strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) analysis

Strengths

• Spain has a high consumption of meat per capita and a well developed meat industry.
• There are strong distribution channels for all kinds of meats and prices, with some very well suited for high-quality meats. There will be more opportunities for beef than for pork, with good distribution channels for high-quality beef.
• There is an extensive network of high-end restaurants, some specialized in meat.
• Some Spanish wholesalers are already used to importing and dealing with high-quality meats.

Weaknesses

• Not many Spanish companies would be capable of importing directly. The first step for Canadian beef exporters would be the major wholesalers. However, most wholesalers would not be able to take big volumes or all cuts of the carcass.
• Canadian beef and pork are unknown and the supply is nearly non-existent at the moment. There is a significant lack of knowledge of Canadian meat among Spanish food industry professionals. A bigger effort in the marketing and promotion of Canadian meat is needed.
• A very small portion of the population would be able to access or afford an "expensive" product like Canadian beef.
• Few Canadian packers are approved to sell in the EU, with very small supply entering the market.

Opportunities

• Many Spanish wholesalers are willing to import Canadian beef, with some retailers offering differentiated products, branded, with specific origins and a story to tell.
• High-end restaurants are numerous and are a good opportunity to introduce new products into the market.
• The Canada European Union Comprehensive and Economic Trade Agreement (CETA) represents an excellent opportunity for Canadian exporters. The elimination of import tariffs under CETA puts Canadian beef in a very competitive position when compared to the US or Australia.
• As a market of 46 million people, Spain represents an interesting opportunity, with Spanish consumers eating less, but better quality meat.
• There are unique differences to Canadian beef that need to be explained and a story that should be told.

Threats

• The possibility of new EU free trade agreements with competitor suppliers, such as the US, would put other meat products in a similar position to Canada.
• There are high input prices, such as feed costs, to produce Canadian meat.
• Canadian companies can experience a long process to be approved to export to the EU.
• There has been a lack of interest from Canadian packers to explore this market and low funding allocated to promote Canadian meats in Europe.
• There are competitors, such as Argentina or Uruguay, offering lower prices when compared to Canada.

The Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA)

CETA enhances opportunities, reducing or eliminating tariffs for Canadian exports to Spain and the EU as a whole. CETA establishes Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQs) for Canadian meat products, meaning that products can enter the EU duty-free up until a certain quota volume:

• Beef (50,000 tonnes) with a 5 year phase-in
• Pork (80,549 tonnes) with a 5 year phase-in
• Bison (3,000 tonnes) immediately as of September 21, 2017

To learn more about CETA and how it can impact your exports, visit CETA for Agri-Food Exporters.

Spanish wholesalers and the availability of Canadian meat in Spain

The supply of Canadian meat products in Spain was almost non-existent as of January 2019. Some Canadian beef and pork is available in other EU markets like the United Kingdom (UK), Germany or Sweden, being distributed by a couple of companies that are importing from Canadian packers.

Canada's international trading partners often require the exporters or various parts of the distribution chain to be identified on a registry or list, either maintained by the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) or by the foreign competent authority (FCA). In Canada, there are a limited number of federally registered meat establishments approved for export to the EU. These packers get their supply from different sources and cattlemen who are already carrying out Non-Hormone Treated Cattle (NHTC) programs. The following resources have supporting information for Canadian meat exporters:

• The list of federally registered Canadian meat establishments and their licensed operators is a tool offered by The Canadian Food Inspection Agency to help find information on Canadian establishments approved to export meat. They also offer general information on the role of export registers and lists, which could be useful for Canadian exporters.
• Lists of Canadian establishments approved for the EU can be found on EU Third Country Establishments - List per Country

In Spain there are 56 major meat wholesalers, most which are located in the wholesale markets of Madrid and Barcelona. Some of them are sourcing grain-fed, high-quality beef produced in the US, Australia, Uruguay or Argentina.  In some cases, such as for Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil, these wholesalers buy directly from the packers. However, that is not the case for beef from the US and Australia; they purchase that beef from major importers based in other EU countries, mainly the Netherlands, Italy, Germany or Monaco.

Out of the list of 56 potential Spanish buyers, this is a selection of those who might offer the largest potential for Canadian exporters:

• Alizerica
• Asttra
• Carfesa
• Carpisa
• Diocarnes
• Duscarlux
• Grupo Embajadores
• Interfoods
• Luis De Blas
• Mercaimpex
• Musée Gourmet
• Raza Nostra
• Sivil Milà
• Tamaco

The meat industry in Spain

An overview of Spain’s meat industry

According to the National Association of Meat Industries of Spain, meat is the fourth-largest industrial sector in Spain, behind the automotive industry, the oil and fuel industry and the electricity production and distribution industry. The meat sector represents 2.1% of the total Spanish gross domestic product (GDP).

The industrial fabric of the sector includes abattoirs, cutting plants and processing plants and comprises around 3,000 companies, distributed throughout Spain, particularly in rural areas. This sector also features 584 slaughter houses, 2,276 cutting plants and 4,948 processing plants.

Although a significant part of the sector comprises small and medium-sized companies, this has not prevented the gradual development and consolidation of large business groups, some of them leaders at the European level. The joint production of all these companies makes the meat industry by far the largest in the entire Spanish food and beverage sector, representing an output of 24 billion euros and 22.3% of the entire Spanish food sector in 2017.

In 2017, the Spanish meat industry exported more than 2.3 million tons of meat, offal and processed products of all kinds, with a very positive trade balance of 477%, seeing over 5.5 billion euros of exports and 1.1 billion euros in imports.

The Spanish beef and veal sector

In 2017, this sector accounted for 9.7% of Spain’s meat production and was the third-largest meat sector, behind pork and poultry. Compared to others in the region, Spain is the EU’s fifth-largest cattle producer in terms of volume. It is behind France, Germany, the United Kingdom and Italy. Spain is also the 14th largest beef and veal exporter in the world.

In 2017, Spain’s total cattle census amounted to 6,254,495 animals, 1.2% higher than the previous year. There were 2,391,003 slaughtered cattle animals, with a total cattle weight of 643,861 tons. The average carcass price for a heifer was 38.09 Euros per kilogram.

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Year	Production
2008	8.1%
2009	7.7%
2010	7.9%
2011	7.9%
2012	7.8%
2013	8.0%
2014	7.9%
2015	8.3%
2016	8.2%
2017	8.3%

Source: Eurostat

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Year	Value of production
2008	2,196.2
2009	2,269.0
2010	2,325.1
2011	2,495.0
2012	2,642.7
2013	2,700.5
2014	2,718.0
2015	2,865.0
2016	3,101.8
2017	3,283.3

The Spanish pork sector

According to the National Association of Meat Industries of Spain, pork production is the main segment in the Spanish meat industry, representing over 64% of all meat. Spain is the world’s fourth largest producer of pork meat, representing 3.75% of the global production, and is behind China, the United Sates of America (USA) and Germany. Spain is the EU’s second-largest meat producer, representing 18.4% of the EU total.

The Spanish swine sector has experienced expansion and continuous growth in recent years. In 2017, the Spanish swine sector reached an output of 15,000 million Euros. This was largely due to an increase in sales abroad, which reached 5,000 million in 2017, and increased from 2,400 million in 2008. In addition, 2017 saw 49.6 million pigs slaughtered in Spain, with over 4.2 million tons of pork being produced.

With a very positive trade balance, Spain has also seen an increase in pork exports to third (non-EU) countries; especially in China, which is Spain’s first destination for pork.

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Year	Production
2008	15.3%
2009	14.7%
2010	15.1%
2011	15.3%
2012	15.6%
2013	15.5%
2014	16.2%
2015	16.7%
2016	17.7%
2017	18.4%

Source: Eurostat

The Spanish processed meats sector

Spain produces 1.4 billion tons of processed meats per year, being the EU’s fourth-largest producer behind Germany, Italy and France. Spain also has one of the richest traditions in producing and consuming a varied selection of ham and prepared meat (charcuterie) products. It’s meat production is diverse, extends throughout the nation and is part of its cultural and gastronomic heritage, with Spanish processed meat products considered popular worldwide.

In terms of value, the biggest category is cured ham and pork shoulder - including Ibérico. Spanish consumers’ preferred products are cured, Serrano and Ibérico hams. Those are the flagship products in terms of meat production in Spain. Serrano and Ibérico ham exceed 30% of the value of products marketed in the self-service and specialist channels.

In terms of volume, cooked meats are the largest category. Cooked turkey leads this category, followed by cooked hams, sausages and chorizo. This is mainly due to the spectacular growth that cooked turkey has experienced in recent years.

An overview of Spanish food consumption

After the financial crisis that dramatically hit the Spanish economy in the early 2000’s, household spending on food has slightly recovered and reached stability at around 57% to 58% of GDP. According to the Spanish National Bank (Banco de España), household spending on goods and services has performed well since mid-2013, making it one of the main drivers of the Spanish economy’s recent recovery. Despite that recovery, at the end of 2017 food spending was still approximately 6% below its pre-crisis level.

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Year	Share of GDP
2000	59.7%
2001	59.2%
2002	58.5%
2003	57.6%
2004	57.9%
2005	57.7%
2006	57.3%
2007	57.0%
2008	57.7%
2009	56.1%
2010	57.2%
2011	57.8%
2012	58.8%
2013	58.4%
2014	58.7%
2015	58.0%
2016	57.6%
2017	57.7%

Sources: The World Bank, Spanish National Bank

Spanish household consumption on food

In 2017, Spaniards ingested an average of 751.4 kilograms of food and beverages. Total consumption in Spain was 102,584.72 million euros, which represented an average expenditure of 2,525.71 euros per person per year and a 3.6% increase in total food spending compared to 2015.

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Category	Share of sales
Food	80.4%
Cold Drinks	13.3%
Hot Drinks	6.3%

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Year	Spending
2009	102,498
2010	103,830
2011	101,991
2012	100,678
2013	101,250
2014	98,052
2015	99,037
2016	100,002
2017	102,584

Emerging trends in Spanish food consumption

According to Kantar WorldPanel, household spending on groceries grew by 1.3% in 2017. This recovery was driven by increased demand (+1% of volume market growth), even though the average price paid remained at around +0.3%. In Spain, these figures meant that every household spent an average of 4,190 euros a year on their food and personal and household care products, which was up 1% on 2016.

One of the main catalysts for the market in 2017 was a growing consumer trend towards healthier habits. For households:

• 74% were in agreement that it was important to follow a healthy diet
• 69% were opting more and more for local products
• 38% were prepared to pay more for products that help prevent illness

Fresh perishable products recorded growth of +0.9% in terms of value over the last twelve months and continue to be the main source of business for modern retailers, leading to 3.9% growth in this sector. Of these products, the big movers are closely related to health and "superfoods", such as avocado (+25.7%), salmon (+13.4%), cabbage (+12.3%), cod (+11.3%), bananas (+5.8%) and eggs (+4.3%).

This healthier trend was also observed in packaged foods, which rose by 2.2% in value terms. The categories that grew the most in this sector were those most associated with a balanced diet: chickpeas (+13.3%), lentils (13.0%) and nuts (11.6%). It was also an outstanding year for organic food, with products packaged with a bio/eco label growing by 14% and are now consumed by 4 in every 10 households.

Meat consumption in Spain

According to the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentación), Spanish meat consumption has been quite stable in terms of value over the past five years, generally being an average of 14.3% of total food consumption. Variations in general food consumption have not been big either, which means that despite the difficult economic conditions in Spain, food expenditures have not been hit very hard.

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Year	Meat consumption
2013	14,573
2014	14,632
2015	14,038
2016	14,244
2017	15,168

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Category	Share of consumption
Fresh poultry	27%
Processed meats	24%
Fresh pork	21%
Rest of meats	13%
Fresh beef and veal	11%
Fresh ovine/sheep	3%

Spanish fresh meat consumption

When looking at Spanish fresh meat consumption on a quantity basis, all fresh meat categories, except for offal, have gone through rather severe cuts in the recent year. Per capita consumption decreased an average of 7% in the last 5 years. Spanish consumers are shown to be quite sensitive to prices, which could be a contributing factor. While poultry (mainly chicken) is the most consumed meat product in Spain, it has also experienced a dramatic decrease in consumption in the last 10 years. Pork consumption, which has been traditionally strong in Spain, is also suffering and is the most variable. This could be caused by the image of the industry, lately linked to questionable production methods, footprint, animal welfare and nutritional composition of the processed products.

Spanish fresh and processed pork, beef and veal consumption

In Spain, pork consumption is more than double that of beef. Due to the financial crisis that hit the Spanish households, consumption of these products significantly decreased until 2012. Since then, a slight recovery has taken place for both types of meat, although 2017 was a poor year for consumption.

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Year	Consumption
2008	55.3
2009	50.6
2010	53
2011	52.7
2012	49.7
2013	50.8
2014	52.7
2015	53.5
2016	54.2
2017	52.5

The average per capita consumption of pork is decreasing again, despite seeing a recovery over the last years. According to professionals in the Spanish meat industry, this reduction is expected to continue over the coming years due to the new trends in general food consumption and a generalized reduction of protein intake from animal sources.

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Year	Fresh pork	Processed pork
2008	519,962	511,546
2009	517,761	558,478
2010	512,837	561,386
2011	493,487	560,439
2012	491,808	573,289
2013	492,748	575,631
2014	479,003	535,435
2015	485,768	523,543
2016	468,637	516,478
2017	466,429	523,617

There is a slight decrease in the consumption of fresh pork and an evident rebound of processed pork products. The difference in consumption between fresh and processed pork is quite relevant and shows the preference of Spanish consumers for cured sausages and hams, but also for ready-to-eat pork meals, cooked sausages and hams and other convenience formats.

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Year	Consumption
2008	13.40
2009	13.20
2010	13.20
2011	12.50
2012	12.10
2013	11.90
2014	12.00
2015	12.30
2016	12.70
2017	12.70

Beef and veal have also seen a trend towards slowing consumption, similar to pork.

As shown in the table above, Spanish pork prices have not changed from 2010-2017, which means that the decrease in consumption is not directly linked to this price stability. Beef prices have increased by 7%, although the decrease in per capita consumption has been more than 20%. Reasons for such a general decrease in per capita consumption in Spain seem to be diverse, and not necessarily linked to prices.

Emerging trends in Spanish meat consumption

In Spain, the total consumption of meat, like in many other developed countries, is progressively slowing down. Experts have many reasons to explain this trend, including:

• changes in consumption patterns and habits, such as more planning when shopping and more out-of-home consumption
• consumers looking for alternative sources of proteins
• negative/bad images of the industry and its production methods
• new, more convenient formats
• shrinking populations with smaller families

According to Euromonitor International, red meat is facing additional challenges because of its link to high cholesterol and coronary heart disease. But, consumers are not eliminating meat from their diets entirely. They are embracing the "less, but better" approach, favoring "clean" and "natural" meat products. This attitude is expected to see value sales of fresh meat bounce back as consumers choose less processed, higher welfare meat such as organic or free-range. Consumers are increasingly swapping out meat in favour of plant-based alternatives. Therefore, the affordability of premium meat is justified by simply buying less.

According to Ipsos Global Advisor, meat is still a dietary option for more than 90% of Spaniards, with 75% identifying themselves as omnivores. Moreover, almost 16% identify themselves as flexitarian, in that they mostly consume plant-based foods with some consumption of meat and animal-based products.

The introduction of new habits among Spanish consumers is having a real impact on meat consumption patterns, with more young consumers looking into new formats, healthier alternatives and more sustainable products. The industry is therefore focused on developing new products that meet consumer trends. That includes attributes such as low-salt, low cholesterol, more sustainable, organic, less additives, less sugar, and so on. All sources indicate an even bigger descent in the coming years as new and alternative flexitarian, vegetarian, pescatarian and vegan diets seem to gather momentum among younger consumers.

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	Canada	Spain
Beef	25.1	12.7
Pork	21.4	52.5

Sources: Statistics Canada, Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food

Distribution

This section provides top-level information on meat distribution in Spain.

Note: Hypermarkets are considered to be over 2,500 square metres in size.

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Distribution channel	Share of 2017 meat sales
Supermarkets	54%
Butcher shops and traditional stores	21%
Hypermarkets	13%
Discount retailers	12%
Online	1%

Note: Prices across all channels have increased some 3% when comparing 2016 to 2017.

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Distribution channel	Average price
Butcher shops and traditional stores	7.45
Online	6.87
Hypermarkets	6.85
Supermarkets	6.16
Discount retailers	5.76
Others	6.78
National average	6.55

Annex 1: Example prices and formats in the Spanish meat industry by retailer

This annex provides information on meat prices and formats as of December 2018 across a range of Spanish retailers.

Alcampo

Examples of pork products distributed by Alcampo

Carrefour

Examples of pork products distributed by Carrefour

El Corte Inglés

Examples of meat products distributed by El Corte Inglés

Sanchez Romero

Examples of meat products distributed by Sanchez Romero

Other Spanish retailers

Annex 2: Survey of Spanish wholesalers

In December 2018, the Embassy of Canada to Spain commissioned FM Consulting to survey Spanish wholesalers. The survey focused on beef and was offered to 55 Spanish wholesalers, with 12 responding – a 22% response rate.

Question 1: Is your company currently buying or have you ever bought Canadian beef?

• Yes: 54.5%
• No: 45.5%

Question 2: What is the origin of the beef you are currently buying?

Question 3: What is your overall perception of Canada as a country?

Question 4: What brings Canadian beef to your mind?

Question 5: Compared to the imported beef you currently have, how is Canadian beef?

• Better: 36.4%
• Worse: 63.6%

Question 6: Would you like your current meat suppliers to offer Canadian beef to you?

• Yes: 91%
• No: 9%

Question 7: Would you be willing and able to buy directly from a Canadian exporter if possible?

Question 8: What information would you like to have?

Question 9: Which beef cuts would be more interesting to buy from Canada, if any?

Question 10: What would be the top cooking applications for the beef you sell to your customers?

Question 11: What would be the seasonality (if any) for your beef sales?

Question 12: In your opinion, what would be the best options to start promoting Canadian beef in Europe?

Annex 3: Macroeconomic trends and data

Note: Throughout this annex the author is referring to and providing information on statistics collected by Euromonitor International and the Spanish Statistics Institute (Insituto Nacional de Stadistica).

General economic outlook

The Spanish economy contracted sharply from 2008-2013, forcing the government to increase taxes, freeze public salaries and limit spending on a variety of services. The large external and internal imbalances that accumulated during the previous boom undermined private consumption and investment. Millions of jobs were lost and banks were left with huge amounts of bad loans.

Growth in the Spanish economy returned in 2014. The turnaround has been supported by employment creation, easier financing conditions, improved confidence and lower oil prices. Labour market reforms, an overhaul of the banking system and a reduced deficit also provided a crucial boost.

The Spanish economic rebound began to broaden in 2015 and the recovery continued in 2016 and 2017. In 2016, Spain’s GDP was $1.24 Trillion and its GDP per capita was $39,087 in 2017. For context, Canada’s GDP per capita was $46,510 in 2017, while the EU’s GDP per capita was $42,509 in that same year.

The Spanish economy continued to strengthen in 2018, when gains in consumer spending drove growth, funded by increased government spending measures, higher-than-expected real wage growth and an increase in employment.

A more balanced growth pattern has emerged in recent years, with both domestic and external demand contributing to the economy. Gains in employment have boosted both household incomes and consumer spending. Business investment also rose, supported by stronger confidence and improved profit margins.

The Spanish economy is forecast to lose some steam in 2019. Real GDP should increase by 2.3% after gains of 2.5% in 2018. Private final consumption (in real terms) rose by 2.6% in 2018, but growth will dip to 1.9% in 2019 as the pace of job creation moderates. The benefits of a recent improvement in financial conditions will also begin to fade. Growth of real GDP will moderate by 2020, dipping to 1.9%. The economy will continue to decelerate in later years, falling to about 1.2% per year by 2026.

To offer a regional perspective, the Catalonia region in northeastern Spain accounts for nearly 20% of GDP. Many Catalonian companies have frozen investment and hiring decisions. The region has also lost thousands of jobs and some companies are moving their headquarters to other parts of Spain. Spanish officials estimate that the crisis cut growth by half a percentage point in 2018.

Trading environment

In 2016 Spain exported $270B across all sectors, making it the 15th largest exporter in the world. It’s top export destinations are France, Germany, Portugal, the United Kingdom and Italy. During the last five years Spain’s exports have decreased at an annualized rate of -0.9%, from $286B in 2011 to $270B in 2016.

In 2016 Spain imported $300B across all sectors, making it the 15th largest importer in the world. It’s top import origins are Germany, France, China, Italy and the United States. During the last five years Spain’s imports have decreased at an annualized rate of -3.3%, from $352B in 2011 to $300B in 2016.

Population trends

Spain’s population increased from 45.6 million in 2008 to 46.5 million in 2018. That is forecast to decrease to 45.9 by 2028, and if the current demographic trends continue, Spain will lose one million inhabitants in the next 15 years and 5.6 million in the next 50 years.

The percentage of people over 65 years of age currently stands at 18.2% and is forecast to increase to 24.9% in 2029 and to 38.7% in 2064. In 2015 the number of deaths was higher than the number of births. The reduction of resident population is mainly due to the progressive increase of deaths and the decrease of births, which is a phenomenon that will be particularly pronounced from 2040 on.

By 2030, Spain will be the fourth-oldest country in the world by median age. Falling births and increasing deaths mean that negative natural change will accelerate in 2017-2030. The over fifty age cohort will increase rapidly, by almost 29%.

Although net immigration is expected to be positive in 2017-2030, it will not be enough to mitigate population decline. Urban population is expected to increase by 1.7% in 2017-2030.

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Population statistic	2018	2028 (Forecast)
Total Spanish population	46.5 million	45.9 million
Percentage of population aged 0 - 14	15%	12%
Percentage of population aged 15 - 64	66%	64%
Percentage of population 65 years and over	19%	24%

Spain’s households

Since 2010, there have been over 18 million households in Spain. Over the past decade, the size of Spanish households have been constantly shrinking with the average household size decreasing to 2.49 persons per household in 2017, from 2.50 in 2016. The most common household is made up of two people, with over 55% having just one or two people.

Single-person households

The largest growth has been in single-person households, which explains the change in consumer patterns, formats and distribution channels. In Spain there were 4,687,400 single-person households in 2017, representing a 1.1% increase from 2016 figures. By sex, single-person households of women grew by 1.0%, and those of men by 1.1%.

Single-person households of people under 65 years old can be further broken down as follows:

• This group represented 58.2% of all single-person households
• By sex, single-person households of women represented 40.1%, while men represented 59.9%
• This group saw an increase of 0.8% when compared to 2016 figures

Single-person households of people aged 65 or more can be further broken down as follows:

• This group represented 41.8% of all single-person households
• By sex, single-person households of women represented 71.9%, while men represented 28.1%
• This group saw an increase of 1.4% when compared to 2016 figures

Couple households

Spain saw the highest number of households consisting of couples in 2017, with 10.3 million households. Those couple households can be further broken down as follows:

• 3.93 million without children
• 2.96 million with one child
• 2.78 million with two children
• 608,200 with three or more children

If we include other types of households where, apart from the couple, there were also other members, then the figure for 2017 reaches 10.9 million households in which a couple was living. And if we include households with more than one couple, a total of 11.3 million of couples is reached.

Summary charts of household composition

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Household composition	Percentage of homes in 2017
One person	25.4%
Two people	30.4%
Three people	20.9%
Four people	17.6%
Five people or more	5.7%

Spain’s income and expenditures

In 2018, Spain’s savings ratio was 7.8% of disposable income. This is forecast to stay the same in 2019. Spanish consumer expenditure per capita was 15,517 euros in 2018. This is forecast to grow by 2.0% in 2019. Total consumer expenditures are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 1.3%, and cumulatively by 14.9%, from 2019 to 2030; they are also forecast to represent 59.7% of Spain’s GDP in 2019.

Spanish disposable income per capita totalled 16,029 euros in 2018. This is forecast to grow by 1.9% in 2019. Total disposable income is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 1.2%, and cumulative by 13.8%, from 2019 to 2030.