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Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops, 2020-11-20

Canada: Outlook for Field Crops (PDF version, 406 KB)

Historical Data

This report is an update of Agriculture and Agri Food Canada’s (AAFC) October 22 Principal Field Crops outlook for the 2020-2021 crop year. For most crops in Canada, the crop year started on August 1 and ends on July 31, although for corn and soybeans, the crop year started on September 1 and ends on August 31.

For the 2020-2021 crop year, the outlook incorporates yield estimates from Statistics Canadas (STC’s) September 14, 2020 report, which are based on a model that incorporates coarse resolution satellite data from STC’s Crop Condition Assessment Program, data from STC’s field crop reporting series, and agro-climatic data.

Total field crop production is estimated at 98.1 million tonnes (Mt), 4% higher than in 2019-2020 and if realized the largest harvest on record, surpassing marginally the 2013 record and 6% above the previous five-year average. Production is forecast to increase for most crops, notably for Durum (22%), Lentils (29%), Oats (6%) and Corn (5%), while production is expected to decrease for Chickpeas (-5%), Barley (-1%), and Canola (-1%).

Total supply is forecast to increase slightly to 114.6 (Mt), as higher production is partially offset by lower carry-in stocks and a decrease in imports. Exports are forecast to remain strong, increasing 3% to 53.8Mt. Total carry-out stocks are forecast to increase marginally to 14.6 Mt. Grain prices in Canada are forecast to continue to be supported by the expected relatively low value of the Canadian dollar and continued strong world demand.

The economic outlook for the world and Canadian grain markets is expected to continue to be impacted by the domestic and international uncertainty caused by COVID-19. The next official estimates of field crop production will be available December 3, 2020, when STC publishes the final estimates of yield and production for 2020-21.

Total Grains and Oilseeds: November 20, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 27,820 27,568 27,479
Area harvested (kha) 26,861 26,105 26,210
Yield (t/ha) 3.24 3.34 3.42
Production (kt) 87,125 87,125 89,742
Imports (kt) 4,042 2,957 1,836
Total supply (kt) 105,876 104,611 104,974
Exports (kt) 46,869 45,077 46,390
Total Domestic Use (kt) 44,484 46,138 45,034
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 14,524 13,397 13,550
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Total Pulses and Special Crops: November 20, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 3,652 3,911 3,987
Area harvested (kha) 3,576 3,804 3,875
Yield (t/ha) 1.91 1.99 2.16
Production (kt) 6,814 7,559 8,385
Imports (kt) 294 327 293
Total supply (kt) 8,829 9,439 9,600
Exports (kt) 6,101 7,418 7,455
Total Domestic Use (kt) 1,175 1,099 1,110
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,552 922 1,035
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
All Principal Field Crops: November 20, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 31,472 31,479 31,466
Area harvested (kha) 30,438 29,909 30,085
Yield (t/ha) 3.09 3.17 3.26
Production (kt) 93,938 94,685 98,127
Imports (kt) 4,336 3,284 2,129
Total supply (kt) 114,705 114,050 114,574
Exports (kt) 52,970 52,495 53,845
Total Domestic Use (kt) 45,660 47,237 46,144
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 16,076 14,319 14,585
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat

Durum

For 2020-21, production is estimated by STC at 6.13 million tonnes (Mt), a 22% increase from 2019-20, as the 16% increase in seeded area was compounded by higher yields and a return to normal abandonment rate. This more than offset the lower carry-in stocks to bring total supply up marginally to 6.92 Mt.

Exports are expected to decrease slightly from the record highs experienced last year, and domestic use is expected to fall because there is less low quality durum available for feed use. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase slightly to 0.8 Mt, 42% lower than the past five year average of 1.39 Mt.

The International Grain Council (IGC) revised their forecast for world durum production, down by 1 Mt from the September report, to 34 Mt. This is still 1% more than 2019-2020 due to declines in the EU (-3%) and North Africa (-17%) offset by increased production in Canada (+22%), Turkey (+8%) and the United States (+28%). According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), US durum production for 2020-21 is forecast to rise 26% to 1.9 Mt.

World supply is expected to fall 2% to 42.9 Mt because of lower carry-in stocks (-11%). Use is expected to increase slightly (+2%) due to increased feed use (+8%). Carry-out stocks are expected to drop 15% over 2019-2020 to 7.6 Mt, the lowest since 2014-2015.

The average Canadian crop year producer price for durum is forecast to remain strong, on par with the 2019-20 average price in Saskatchewan for No. 1 CWAD 13% protein at $270/tonne.

Durum [a]: November 20, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 2,503 1,980 2,302
Area harvested (kha) 2,456 1,902 2,241
Yield (t/ha) 2.36 2.62 2.74
Production (kt) 5,785 4,977 6,134
Imports (kt) [b] 23 96 50
Total supply (kt) 7,284 6,906 6,921
Exports (kt) [c] 4,526 5,344 5,310
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 204 216 214
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 531 388 375
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 926 825 811
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,832 737 800
Average Price ($/t) [g] 235 270 270
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Crop year average prices: Wheat (No.1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No.1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices. Barley (No. 1 feed, cash, I/S Lethbridge), Corn (No.2 CE, cash, I/S Chatham), Oats (US No. 2 Heavy, CBOT nearby futures); Rye (No. 1 CW, cash, I/S Saskatoon); Canola (No. 1 Canada, cash, Track Vancouver); Flaxseed (No. 1 CW, cash, I/S Saskatoon); Soybeans (No. 2 CE, cash, I/S Chatham)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat (excluding durum)

For 2020-21, Production is estimated by STC to increase by 2% to 28.01 Mt, as a 3% decrease in seeded area was more than offset by lower abandonment and higher yields. Spring wheat production is estimated to fall by 3% to 25.16 Mt and winter wheat production to rise by 68% to 2.85 Mt. The wheat harvest is complete with the provinces reporting average to above average quality thanks to better weather conditions at time of harvest.

Estimated production by class of wheat, with change over 2019-20 production in brackets: winter wheat (hard red, soft red and soft white) 2,849 thousand tonnes (Kt) (+68%); Canada Western Red Spring (CWRS), premium quality hard wheat, 21,000 Kt (-5%); Canada Prairie Spring (CPS) 1,994 Kt (+33%), Canada Northern Hard Red Spring (CNHR) 801 Kt (+10%); soft white spring (CWSWS) 481 Kt (-12%), other western spring wheat 314 Kt (+21%), eastern spring wheat, mainly hard red spring (CERS), 571 Kt (+23%).

Total supply is estimated to increase by 4% due to higher carry-in stocks (+13%) and increased production. Exports are forecast to rise by 2% due to increased demand from China.

The IGC is forecasting world production of all wheat at 763.9 Mt, relatively on par with 2019-2020 (+0.1%) due to production declines in Europe, USA and Argentina, offset by increases in Russia and Australia. Excluding China, total supply is expected to increase slightly to 778.3 Mt, 1% more than 2019-2020 due to higher carry-in stocks. Total use is also forecast to rise marginally to 619.4 Mt with higher food use offset by lower feed and industrial use. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by 2% to 151.5 Mt, 17% higher than the past five year average of 4.68 Mt.

US all wheat production is estimated to fall by 5% from 2019-20 to 49.7 Mt, according to USDA. Imports are forecast to increase by 19% to 3.4 Mt. Supply is estimated to fall by 4% to 81.1 Mt. Exports are forecast increase just 1% to 26.5 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to drop 15% to 23.9 Mt.

Average Canadian producer prices for wheat for the crop year are forecast to remain on par with 2019-20 levels, with the average price in Saskatchewan for No. 1 CWRS 13.5% protein at $226/tonne.

Wheat Except Durum [a]: November 20, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 7,570 8,145 7,891
Area harvested (kha) 7,426 7,754 7,636
Yield 3.58 3.53 3.67
Production (kt) 26,567 27,371 28,011
Imports (b) 95 179 100
Total supply (kt) 31,918 31,758 32,873
Exports (kt) [c] 19,738 19,128 19,450
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 3,294 3,363 3,370
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 3,843 3,687 3,736
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 7,971 7,868 7,923
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 4,209 4,763 5,500
Average Price ($/t) [g] 245 225 226
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Crop year average prices: Wheat (No.1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No.1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices and are not comparable to CWB pool returns for previous years.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
All Wheat [a]: November 20, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 10,073 10,125 10,193
Area harvested (kha) 9,881 9,656 9,876
Yield (t/ha) 3.27 3.35 3.46
Production (kt) 32,352 32,348 34,145
Imports (kt) [b] 118 275 150
Total supply (kt) 39,202 38,664 39,794
Exports (kt) [c] 24,264 24,471 24,760
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 3,498 3,578 3,584
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 4,374 4,075 4,111
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 8,897 8,694 8,734
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 6,041 5,499 6,300
  • [a] Crop year is August-July
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Coarse grains

Barley

For 2020-21, total barley production across Canada is estimated by Statistics Canada (STC) to decrease by 1% from 2019-20 to 10.3 million tonnes (Mt), on expectations for a slightly higher area harvested, despite estimates for lower average yields. If materialized, the production would be 17% above the previous five-year average. Combined with higher carry-in stocks, Canadian barley supply is forecast at 11.3 Mt, roughly the same level as last year.

Harvesting of barley in Western Canada has finished. The three Prairie provinces all reported good quality at provincial level in their final crop reports. The average provincial yield for barley in the top two barley producing provinces, Alberta and Saskatchewan, is reported at 4.00 Mt/hectare and 3.60 Mt/hectare, respectively, versus STC’s estimates of 3.96 Mt/hectare and 3.39 Mt/hectare for these two provinces, respectively.

Exports are expected to remain strong throughout the year against a backdrop of strong demand for animal feed from the international market. STC and the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC) have reported a strong export pace since the start of the year. Domestic use is expected to decline, mainly due to lower feed consumption in anticipation of a reduction in the backlog of livestock and good supplies of other feed grains. Industrial use is expected to recover, but will still be lower than prior-year levels. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise by 5% from last year and to be 27% lower than the previous five-year average.

The average price of feed barley for 2020-21 is expected to rise by 3% from 2019-20 to $240/tonne, based on cumulative average price for the current crop year compared to a year ago, as a result of strong demand for exports and domestic feed use.

World barley supply for 2020-21 is anticipated to increase by 1% to 203 Mt, particularly due to a increase of 1.8 Mt or 17% in output from Australia, as well as a minor rise in output from the EU and Kazakhstan, and an increase of 3% from Russia, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). However, barley production in Ukraine is estimated to fall sharply by more than 1.5 Mt or 16% from the previous year. Argentina projects to produce less barley in 2020-21. World barley consumption is forecast to expand by 1% to 156 Mt on higher feed demand, as well as food, seed and industrial use, mainly by China and the EU. World demand for barley imports is forecast to increase by 2% to 27.3 Mt. World carry-out stocks are expected to rise marginally from last year but still reach a recent four-year high due to an increase in Australia, Iran, Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Barley [a]: November 20, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 2,628 2,996 3,060
Area harvested (kha) 2,395 2,728 2,757
Yield (t/ha) 3.50 3.81 3.72
Production (kt) 8,380 10,383 10,255
Imports (kt) [b] 43 63 60
Total supply (kt) 9,667 11,308 11,271
Exports (kt) [c] 3,057 3,054 3,100
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 318 277 298
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 5,171 6,759 6,632
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 5,747 7,298 7,171
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 863 957 1,000
Average Price ($/t) [g] 260 232 240
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Barley (No.1 feed, cash, in-store Lethbridge).
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Corn

For 2020-21, Canadian corn production is estimated to increase by 5% from 2019-20 to 14 Mt on expected good yields, despite the forecasted lower area planted. If materialized, production would be 2% above the previous five-year average. Imports are expected to decrease on expected good grain corn production prospects, both in Eastern and Western Canada. At 17.7 Mt, total supply is forecast to be 1% higher than the previous year.

Domestic use is anticipated to remain at the same level as last year due to a decline in feed use, which is offset by an expected partial increase in industrial use. Exports are expected to be weak due to the sluggish pace so far this year, but increase marginally on good domestic supply and on the expectation of continued strong global demand. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall slightly from the 2019-20 record level to 2.5 Mt and be 21% above the prior five-year average.

The average price of Chatham corn for 2020-21 is expected to hold steady at $195/tonne, as the forecast for an increase in US corn prices is expected to be offset by a declining basis, which reflects ample supplies relative to limited demand of corn in Ontario.

The USDA trimmed down the 2020-21 production estimates for some major corn exporters, including the EU, Russia, Ukraine and the US, led by Ukraine whose corn output is estimated to drop sharply by 8 Mt or 22% from the October forecasts, followed by the EU whose corn output is estimated to fall by almost 2 Mt or 3% from the October forecasts. Compared to last year, Ukraine corn production is estimated to decline by 21% and 4% for the EU. World demand for corn, particularly from the livestock sector of Asian countries, such as China, and countries in the Middle East, has been revised up and is 2% higher than last year. As a result, global carry-out stocks are expected to reach their lowest level in six years, led by China whose carry-out stocks are expected to decrease by 9 Mt from last year to a six-year low and, for the US whose carry-out stocks are expected to decrease by 7.5 Mt from last year to a seven-year low.

The 2020-21 corn supplies in the US were trimmed by 1% from the October estimates, however, it is still 4% higher than last year, but slightly lower than the average for the previous four years. Along with strong demand, particularly from solid export sales, carry-out stocks for the US corn are expected to reach a five-year low. The projection for the US 2020-21 corn weighted average price received by farmers was lifted to US$4.00/bushel(bu) from US$3.60/bu in the October updates and it is the highest in the last seven years.

Corn [a]: November 20, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,468 1,496 1,440
Area harvested (kha) 1,431 1,451 1,402
Yield (t/ha) 9.70 9.24 10.01
Production (kt) 13,885 13,404 14,029
Imports (kt) [b] 2,582 2,184 1,100
Total supply (kt) 18,884 17,568 17,689
Exports (kt) [c] 1,617 677 850
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 5,786 5,303 5,400
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 9,485 9,012 8,924
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 15,288 14,331 14,339
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,979 2,560 2,500
Average Price ($/t) [g] 194 195 195
  • [a] Crop year is September-August.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Corn (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham).
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019, imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC but will be available from STC on October 4 2018. For 2019-2020[f], area, yield and production are from the STC survey but imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Oats

For 2020-21, Canadian oat production is estimated to increase by 7% to 4.5 Mt on expected higher area and good yields. If materialized, it would be the second largest output on record since 1983. Total supply is forecast to be 6% higher than the previous year.

Harvesting of oats in Western Canada has finished. The three Prairie provinces all reported good quality at provincial levels in their final crop reports. The average provincial yield for oats in Alberta and Saskatchewan is reported at 3.25 Mt/hectare and 3.28 Mt/hectare, respectively, versus STC’s estimates of 3.76 Mt/hectare and 3.55 Mt/hectare for these two provinces, respectively.

Exports are projected to increase on the strong start for oat grain exports and record pace for product exports. Total domestic use is expected to rise, largely on higher feed use. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase significantly from the previous year on plentiful supplies.

The CBOT oat futures price for 2020-21 is expected to remain the same as the previous year, at $270/tonne, underpinned by strong demand for the time being, albeit ample supplies in Canada, the US and the world’s major exporting countries.

The 2020-21 oat production in the world’s main oat producing countries are expected to rise, with a sharp increase of 86% for Australia and 14% for the EU. Global oat supply for 2020-21 is expected to recover from the year-earlier lows to reach the highest level in more than a decade. Total demand, including feed and food consumption, is expected to increase by 7% to 24.3 Mt, but more slowly than the increase in supplies, which will result an increase of 33% in world ending stocks.

Oats [a]: November 20, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,235 1,459 1,554
Area harvested (kha) 1,005 1,171 1,245
Yield (t/ha) 3.42 3.61 3.62
Production (kt) 3,436 4,227 4,503
Imports (kt) [b] 11 13 14
Total supply (kt) 4,225 4,637 4,943
Exports (kt) [c] 2,475 2,615 2,700
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 122 143 140
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 1,109 1,324 1,387
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 1,353 1,597 1,643
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 397 426 600
Average Price ($/t) [g] 254 274 270
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Oats (US No.2 Heavy, Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) nearby futures)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Rye

For 2020-21, Canadian rye production is estimated to increase by 29% to 431 thousand tonnes (Kt), due to higher area offsetting lower yield. Supply is expected to increase by 23% to 473 Kt, the highest in recent three years.

Saskatchewan, the top rye producing province, reported that this year’s rye harvest was 2.51 tonnes/hectare, while STC’s estimate was 2.13 tons per hectare.

Exports are estimated to fall by 21% to 130 Kt for this year, based on the current export pace reported by STC and CGC. Domestic use is expected to increase on relatively cheap prices and good supplies. Carry-out stocks are projected to rise sharply due to bumper supplies. Rye prices are expected to fall significantly from 2019-20, due to ample supplies in Canada, the US and the world major exporting countries.

World rye supplies are forecast to increase and most of the increases are located in the major exporting countries. World consumption is anticipated to increase on expanded feed use, as well as food, seed and industrial use. Demand for imports from the major importing countries is expected to fall. World carry-out stocks are forecast to increase and most of the increases are located in the major exporting countries.

Rye [a]: November 20, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 136 175 237
Area harvested (kha) 79 103 146
Yield (t/ha) 2.99 3.25 2.95
Production (kt) 236 333 431
Imports (kt) [b] 2 3 2
Total supply (kt) 363 385 473
Exports (kt) [c] 146 165 130
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 19 19 24
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 133 140 204
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 167 180 243
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 49 40 100
Average Price ($/t) [g] 236 210 175
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Rye (No.1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada
Mixed Grains [a]: November 20, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 144 145 166
Area harvested (kha) 69 68 67
Yield (t/ha) 2.94 2.84 3.14
Production (kt) 203 192 210
Imports (kt) [b] 0 0 0
Total supply (kt) 203 192 210
Exports (kt) [c] 0 0 0
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 0 0 0
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 203 192 210
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 203 192 210
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 0 0 0
  • [a] August-July crop year
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Total Coarse Grains: November 20, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area Seeded 5,610 6,271 6,457
Area harvested (kha) 4,979 5,520 5,617
Yield (t/ha) 5.25 5.17 5.24
Production (kt) 26,140 28,539 29,427
Imports (kt) [b] 2,638 2,264 1,176
Total supply (kt) 33,342 34,091 34,585
Exports (kt) [c] 7,295 6,510 6,780
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 6,245 5,743 5,862
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 16,103 17,427 17,357
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 22,759 23,598 23,605
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 3,288 3,982 4,200
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Oilseeds

Canola

For 2020-21, Canadian canola production is estimated at 19.4 million tonnes (Mt), on a marginal decline in seeded area and a 1% drop in yields to 2.3 t/ha. By province, 10.1 Mt of canola is estimated to have been grown in Saskatchewan, 6.0 Mt in Alberta and Manitoba is estimated to have produced 3.2 Mt of canola. Total supplies are estimated down by 7%, to 22.6Mt, as the marginal decline in output is supplemented by lower carry-in stocks and stable imports.

Domestic crush is forecast to decline marginally from last year to 9.8 Mt due to tight domestic supplies. For the first two months of the crop year Statistics Canada reported a domestic canola crush of 1.6 Mt, on par with the amount crushed during August and September of 2019. Exports are forecast to increase marginally for the crop year, to 10.2 Mt, on support from strong world demand. Exports to date are running about 50% ahead of this time last year on strong early crop year shipments. The export pace will need to slow down later in the crop year as Canadian supplies of canola tighten, barring an unexpected significant upward revision in the production estimate.

Carry-out stocks are forecast to tighten to 2.3 Mt, for a stock-use-ratio of 11%, while canola prices are estimated at $560/t on support from the rally in world oilseed, vegetable oil and protein meal prices. This is a 16% increase from the 2019-20 canola price of $484/t and a 10% rise from the 5 year average of $511/t.

World trade in canola is forecast to decline slightly to 15.1 Mt, by the USDA due to the tightening of world supplies. The European Union is projected as the world’s largest importer of canola-rapeseed, at 5.8 Mt, a slight decline from the 6.3 Mt imported last year but well up from the 4.2 Mt shipped into the EU-28 in 2018-19. Chinese imports of canola-rapeseed are predicted to remain stable with last year at 2.5 Mt but remain well below the 3.5 Mt imported in 2018-19 as their hog herd continues to recover from African Swine Fever. Japanese imports of canola-rapeseed are steady at 2.3 Mt. Canadian imports of canola are predicted to hold steady at 0.2 Mt as the catchment area or delivery area of a significant crush plant extends into the US.

World exports of canola are predicted to decline by almost 0.7 Mt from last year due to the tightening of world canola-rapeseed supplies, although shipments are expected to be well above the 14.3 Mt traded in 2018-19. Canada, at 9.8 Mt, is expected to account for nearly two-thirds of the world’s exports in canola-rapeseed. The 2nd largest exporter is “other”, namely countries from the former Soviet Union, Ukraine and Russia at 2.1 Mt and 0.5 Mt, respectively, and Australia at 2.4 Mt.

Canola [a]: November 20, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 9,232 8,481 8,409
Area harvested (kha) 9,120 8,319 8,323
Yield (t/ha) 2.27 2.36 2.33
Production (kt) 20,724 19,607 19,393
Imports (kt) [b] 147 155 100
Total supply (kt) 23,506 24,197 22,623
Exports (kt) [c] 9,202 10,170 10,200
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 9,295 10,129 9,800
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 512 707 313
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 9,869 10,897 10,173
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 4,435 3,131 2,250
Average Price ($/t) [g] 497 484 560
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Canola (No.1 Canada, cash, Track Vancouver)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Flaxseed

For 2020-21, Canadian flaxseed production is estimated by STC at 0.55 Mt based on a seeded area of 0.37 Mha and slightly above normal yields of 1.6 t/ha. Most of Canada’s flaxseed is grown in Saskatchewan with an expected output of 0.44 Mt while an additional 0.08 Mt are expected to have been grown in Manitoba. Supplies are forecast to increase by 10% to 0.63 Mt as the higher output offsets the virtually unchanged carry-in stocks and modest decline in imports.

Exports are forecast up by 29% from 2019-20, to 0.45 Mt, on higher available supplies and strong world oilseed demand. Total domestic use is forecast to fall sharply to 0.05 Mt on a drop in feed, waste and dockage while carry-out stocks are forecast at 0.13 Mt. Prices are forecast to rise by $100/t, or about 20% from last year, to $620/t, on support from a counter-seasonal rally in oilseed prices worldwide. The post-harvest rally in flaxseed prices has been significant, creating concerns of a vulnerability to a sharp correction. While information is limited, elevators are offering bids at near current levels for the remainder of the crop year, supporting ideas that the price rally is based on solid long term supply-demand fundamentals and is not a temporary market bubble.

Flaxseed (excluding solin) [a]: November 20, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 347 379 369
Area harvested (kha) 342 339 344
Yield (t/ha) 1.44 1.43 1.60
Production (kt) 492 486 552
Imports (kt) [b] 9 21 10
Total supply (kt) 628 567 626
Exports (kt) [c] 468 350 450
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 0 0 0
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 83 138 31
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 100 154 51
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 60 64 125
Average Price ($/t) [g] 496 518 620
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Flaxseed (No.1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • n/a: not available
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Soybeans

For 2020-21, production is forecast at 6.2 Mt vs 6.1 Mt in 2019-20 and 7.4 Mt in 2018-19. Total supply is forecast to rise marginally to 7.3 M vs 7.1 Mt for 2019-20 on higher carry-in stocks, production and imports. Exports are forecast to increase by 17% to 4.2 Mt on support from strong world demand. Domestic processing is forecast up slightly at 1.9 Mt, as crushers return to a normal soybean processing pace.

Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 6% 0.68 Mt versus 0.72 Mt for 2019-20 and the 5 year average of 0.56 Mt. Soybean prices are forecast to increase by 17% to $490/t, on support from the sharp rally in world soybean prices supported in turn by unexpectedly strong Chinese buying.

The USDA maintained its bullish outlook for the 2020-21 crop year in the November release of the WASDE by raising the predicted American farmgate soybean price to US$10.40/bu from US$9.80/bu in October and US$9.25/bu in September, an increase of 6% and 12% respectively. By comparison, the 2019-20 price for soybeans was US$8.57/bu while the 5 year average was US$8.96/bu, 18% and 16% under the current price outlook, respectively.

Support for the strong market rally is provided by a combination of tighter supplies and rising consumption. The prediction for 2020-21 soybean production was scaled back by 2% or 98 million bushels, to 4.17 billion bushels (Bbu) from the October release of the WASDE. Meanwhile, compared to last year, US soybean exports are forecast to rise by 31%, to 2.2 Bbu while domestic use remains comparatively stable, rising by less than 1% or 15 Mbu, to 2.18 Bbu. Ending stocks are expected to tighten strongly, falling by 64% to 190 Mbu from 523 Mbu for 2019-20 while the stock-to-use ratio drops to 4% vs 13% for 2019-20.

At the world level, the USDA scaled back its 2020-21 production forecast for oilseeds by 8 Mt, equivalent to 1% from the October release of Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade. The decline is due to lower soybean production in the United States, Argentina and India along with reduced sunflower seed output in Ukraine and Russia. Most of the losses were due to dry weather across assorted growing regions and fresh harvest data from the United States and India. In Argentina, economic considerations are expected to constrain any potential expansion in area. World crush is projected to decline on tighter supplies while world trade is expected to set a new record. World oilseed ending stocks are reduced by 3 Mt, or 3%, from October to 99 Mt, vs 110 Mt for 2019-20 and the recent high of 132 Mt set in 2018-19, primarily on lower US soybean carry-out.

Soybeans [a] : November 20, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 2,558 2,313 2,052
Area harvested (kha) 2,540 2,271 2,049
Yield (t/ha) 2.92 2.71 3.04
Production (kt) 7,417 6,145 6,225
Imports (kt) [b] 1,131 242 400
Total supply (kt) 9,199 7,093 7,346
Exports (kt) [c] 5,640 3,576 4,200
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 2,058 1,742 1,900
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 563 841 371
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 2,859 2,796 2,471
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 700 721 675
Average Price ($/t) [g] 406 419 490
  • [a] Crop year is September-August.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Soybeans (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019, imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC but will be available from STC on October 4 2018. For 2019-2020[f], area, yield and production are from the STC survey but imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada
Total Oilseeds : November 20, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 12,137 11,172 10,829
Area harvested (kha) 12,001 10,929 10,716
Yield (t/ha) 2.39 2.40 2.44
Production (kt) 28,633 26,239 26,170
Imports (kt) [b] 1,286 418 510
Total supply (kt) 33,333 31,857 30,595
Exports (kt) [c] 15,310 14,095 14,850
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 11,354 11,871 11,700
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 1,159 1,685 714
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 12,828 13,847 12,695
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 5,195 3,915 3,050
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada
Total Grains and Oilseeds : November 20, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 27,820 27,568 27,479
Area harvested (kha) 26,861 26,105 26,210
Yield (t/ha) 3.24 3.34 3.42
Production (kt) 87,125 87,125 89,742
Imports (kt) [b] 4,042 2,957 1,836
Total supply (kt) 105,876 104,611 104,974
Exports (kt) [c] 46,869 45,077 46,390
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 44,484 46,138 45,034
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 14,524 13,397 13,550
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Pulses and special crops

Dry peas

For 2020-21, production is estimated to rise by 3% to 4.4 million tonnes (Mt). This is largely due to higher yields, especially in Alberta where 45% of the peas are grown. Yellow pea production is forecast to be similar to last year at 3.5 Mt, while green pea production is expected to rise to over 0.7 Mt. Production of the other remaining dry pea types is expected lower at 130 thousand tonnes (Kt). Supply is forecast to be similar to last year at 4.7 Mt despite lower carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to increase to 3.8 Mt. From August to September 2020, China, US and Bangladesh were Canada’s top three markets. Despite the similar supply, carry-out stocks are forecast to fall. The average price is expected to rise by 11% from 2019-20 to $295/t.

During October, the on-farm price of yellow peas in Saskatchewan rose $45/t while the price of green pea types rose $30/t. Current indications of crop quality suggest there will be an increase in the supply of No.1 and No.2 grade Canadian dry peas when compared to last year. For the crop year to-date, the premium for green dry peas has been $35/t above the price for yellow dry peas, versus $115/t last year.

Area seeded to dry peas in the US for 2020-21 is forecast by the USDA to fall by 9% from last year to 1.0 million acres. This is largely due to lower seeded area in North Dakota. Yields are expected to be above average and US dry pea production is forecast by the USDA to fall by 17% to just over 0.8 Mt. The main export markets for US dry peas are Canada, the Philippines and India.

Dry Peas [a]: November 20, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,463 1,753 1,722
Area harvested (kha) 1,431 1,711 1,675
Yield (t/ha) 2.50 2.48 2.60
Production (kt) 3,581 4,237 4,360
Imports (kt) [b] 62 82 85
Total supply (kt) 4,291 4,630 4,678
Exports (b) 3,270 3,781 3,800
Total Domestic Use (c) 708 616 653
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 312 233 225
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 8 5 5
Average Price (d) 270 265 295
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2019-2020[f] and the years before 2019-2020[f], area, yield and production are from STC. For the years before 2019-2020[f], imports, exports, seed requirements and carry-out stocks are from STC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Lentils

For 2020-21, production is estimated to rise by 29% to 3.1 Mt, due to higher yields and area. Production of red lentils rose sharply from last year to 2.1 Mt, while large green lentil production fell to 0.7 Mt. Production of the other remaining lentil types is expected to decrease to below 0.3 Mt.

Imports, largely from the US, are forecast at 50 Kt. However, supply is expected to be unchanged due to lower carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to be slightly higher than the previous year at 2.9 Mt. To-date, India, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey are the top export markets. Domestic use is expected to fall by 13% due to the higher crop quality. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 4% to 200 Kt and remain tight. The overall average price is forecast to rise by 29% from 2019-20, with an above average grade distribution.

During the month of October, the on-farm price in Saskatchewan for large green lentils rose by $60/t while red lentil prices rose by $15/t. This was largely due to higher export demand. Compared to last year, an increase in the supply of No.1 or No. 2 grade Canadian lentils is expected for 2020-21. To-date, large green lentil prices have maintained a premium of $120/t over red lentil prices, compared to a $105/t premium in 2019-20.

For 2020-21, US area seeded to lentils is forecast by the USDA at over 0.5 million acres, up 7% from 2019-20, largely due to higher area seeded in Montana. With above normal yields and lower abandonment, 2020-21 US lentil production is therefore forecast by the USDA at 0.3 Mt, up 21% from the production in 2019-20. The main US export markets for lentils to-date are the EU, Canada, India and Mexico.

Lentils [a]: November 20, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,525 1,530 1,713
Area harvested (kha) 1,499 1,489 1,681
Yield (t/ha) 1.46 1.60 1.82
Production (kt) 2,192 2,382 3,065
Imports (kt) [b] 51 90 50
Total supply (kt) 3,115 3,327 3,324
Exports (b) 2,033 2,861 2,900
Total Domestic Use (c) 227 258 224
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 856 209 200
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 38 7 6
Average Price (d) 390 485 625
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2019-2020[f] and the years before 2019-2020[f], area, yield and production are from STC. For the years before 2019-2020[f], imports, exports, seed requirements and carry-out stocks are from STC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Dry beans

For 2020-21, production is estimated to have increased by 15% to 365 Kt. This includes 95 Kt of white pea bean types and 270 Kt of colored bean types. Production in Ontario decreased due to lower yields and increased in Manitoba due to higher yields. In Alberta, colored dry bean production increased due to higher yields. Supply is forecast to rise by only 7%, due to lower carry-in stocks.

Exports are forecast to be marginally lower than last year. Based on data for August and September, the EU and the US are the top two markets, with smaller volumes exported to Angola and Mexico. Carry-out stocks are expected to increase due to the higher level of supply and lower demand. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to fall by 15% due to higher North American supply.

Area seeded to dry beans in the US is estimated by the USDA to increase by 35% to 1.7 million acres, mostly due to larger area seeded in North Dakota. US total dry bean production (excluding chickpeas) is forecast by the USDA at 1.6 Mt, up 68% from 2019-20. The largest increases are expected for white pea beans and pinto beans. The main US export markets continue to be the EU and Mexico.

Dry Beans [a]: November 20, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 143 160 173
Area harvested (kha) 137 150 157
Yield (t/ha) 2.49 2.11 2.32
Production (kt) 341 317 365
Imports (kt) [b] 98 75 75
Total supply (kt) 459 456 490
Exports (b) 348 361 345
Total Domestic Use (c) 47 45 45
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 65 50 100
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 16 12 26
Average Price (d) 815 985 835
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Chickpeas

For 2020-21, production is estimated at 239 Kt, a 5% decrease from last year due to lower area seeded but higher yields. The production of kabuli types is estimated to be lower than the previous year, while desi type production is expected to be higher. Despite this, the total supply is forecast to increase by 23%, due to large carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast at 105 Kt with the US and Pakistan as the top markets. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise, largely due to increased supply and continue to be burdensome. The average price is forecast to rise by 14% due to above average Canadian crop quality, despite expectations for increased world production.

The USDA has estimated US chickpea area seeded at a 0.25 million acres, 44% lower than in 2019-20. With higher yields and lower abandonment, 2020-21 US chickpea production is forecast by the USDA at 0.17 Mt, down 38% from 2019-20.

Chickpeas [a]: November 20, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 179 159 121
Area harvested (kha) 176 156 115
Yield (t/ha) 1.77 1.61 2.07
Production (kt) 311 252 239
Imports (kt) [b] 51 48 50
Total supply (kt) 376 439 539
Exports (b) 147 105 105
Total Domestic Use (c) 89 85 84
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 140 250 350
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 59 132 185
Average Price (d) 480 490 560
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Mustard seed

For 2020-21, production is estimated to have fallen 24% to 103 Kt due to lower area seeded. Production of yellow types of mustard increased while brown and oriental production is expected to decrease. However, total supply is forecast to fall by only 20% to 171 Kt. Exports are expected to be similar to last year at 115 Kt and, as of August and September, the US and the EU are the top two markets. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall sharply and, as a result, the average price is forecast to be 16% higher than in 2019-20.

Mustard Seed [a]: November 20, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 204 161 104
Area harvested (kha) 197 155 101
Yield (t/ha) 0.88 0.87 1.02
Production (kt) 174 135 103
Imports (kt) [b] 8 7 8
Total supply (kt) 235 214 171
Exports (b) 121 113 115
Total Domestic Use (c) 42 41 46
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 73 61 10
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 45 39 6
Average Price (d) 690 700 810
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020[f] which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Canary seed

For 2020-21, production is estimated to be cut by 9% to 159 Kt due to lower area and yields. Exports are expected to be lower than the previous year. Based on data for August and September, Mexico and the EU are the top two export markets, followed by Brazil. Carry-out stocks are expected to tighten. The average price is forecast to be marginally higher than last year at $640/t.

Canary Seed [a]: November 20, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 109 118 111
Area harvested (kha) 109 115 107
Yield (t/ha) 1.45 1.52 1.48
Production (kt) 158 175 159
Imports (kt) [b] 0 0 0
Total supply (kt) 174 186 174
Exports (b) 156 161 155
Total Domestic Use (c) 7 9 9
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 11 15 10
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 7 9 6
Average Price (d) 505 630 640
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020[f] which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Sunflower seed

For 2020-21, production is estimated to have risen to 95 Kt as higher harvested area combines with increased yields. When compared to 2019-20, supply is expected to increase to 225 Kt due to higher carry-in stocks and production. Exports are forecast to be similar to the previous year, and carry-out stocks are forecast to rise. The US is expected to remain Canada’s main export market for sunflower seed. The price is forecast to be 8% lower on average from last year, due to weaker oilseed type prices than in 2019-20.

US sunflower seed production for 2020-21 is forecast by the USDA at nearly 1.3 Mt, up 44% from 2019-20. This is largely due to higher production in North Dakota. Production of oil type varieties is estimated to have risen to 1.1 Mt and the production of confectionery type varieties is estimated to have increased to over 0.15 Mt. Total supply in the US is expected to rise by 23% at 1.5 Mt. Domestic use and exports are expected to rise. Despite this, US sunflower seed carry-out stocks are expected to rise and pressure North American prices.

The world supply of sunflower seed for 2020-21 is estimated by the USDA at 54.3 Mt. This is 10% lower than last year, due to decreased production in Ukraine and Russia. World domestic use is expected to fall to 50.3 Mt and world exports are forecast to fall to 2.6 Mt. World carry-out stocks are expected to decrease sharply to 1.3 Mt, below the five-year average.

Sunflower Seed [a]: November 20, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 29 31 44
Area harvested (kha) 27 29 40
Yield (t/ha) 2.13 2.18 2.41
Production (kt) 57 63 95
Imports (kt) [b] 24 26 25
Total supply (kt) 179 186 225
Exports (b) 26 37 35
Total Domestic Use (c) 56 44 50
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 97 104 140
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 118 128 166
Average Price (d) 585 620 570
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020[f] which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Total Pulses and Special Crops [a]: November 20, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 3,652 3,911 3,987
Area harvested (kha) 3,576 3,804 3,875
Yield (t/ha) 1.91 1.99 2.16
Production (kt) 6,814 7,559 8,385
Imports (kt) [b] 294 327 293
Total supply (kt) 8,829 9,439 9,600
Exports (b) 6,101 7,418 7,455
Total Domestic Use (c) 1,175 1,099 1,110
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,552 922 1,035
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC and STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Historical data

Historical principal field crops data are available in spreadsheet format and can be obtained by emailing aafc.bulletin.aac@canada.ca. Please specify crops, crop years, and preferred file format in your request.

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