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Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops, 2020-10-22

Canada: Outlook for Field Crops (PDF version, 265 KB)

Historical Data

This report is an update of Agriculture and Agri Food Canada’s (AAFC) September outlook report for the 2019-20 (which has ended for all crops) and 2020-21 crop years. For most crops in Canada, the crop year started on August 1st and ends on July 31st , although for corn and soybeans, the crop year started on September 1st and ends on August 31st .

For the 2019-20 crop year, the report provides the final estimates for all crops which incorporates information from Statistics Canada’s (STC) October 6, 2020 report on the supply and disposition of soybeans and corn as well as revisions to the estimates for a number of other crops. Compared to the previous year, total crop production increased slightly to 95 million tonnes (Mt), while total supply decreased marginally to 114 Mt as a result of a decrease in imports. Carryout stocks (year-end inventories) for all principal field crops decreased by 11% to 14.3 Mt, due to a 4% increase for domestic use in Canada.

For the 2020-21 crop year, the outlook incorporates yield estimates from STC’s September 14, 2020 report, which are based on a model that incorporates coarse resolution satellite data from STC’s Crop Condition Assessment Program, data from STC’s field crop reporting series, and agro-climatic data. Favorable weather in Western Canada resulted in an early harvest that, in general, is expected to produce good yields and quality. In Eastern Canada, the corn and soybean harvest is not expected to be complete until early November. Total field crop production is estimated at 98 Mt. Total supply is forecast to remain essentially unchanged, as higher production is offset by lower carry in stocks and imports. Total carry-out stocks are forecast to increase to 14.6 Mt, due largely to a 3% decrease in domestic use as exports remain relatively stable. World grain prices will continue to be pressured by an abundant supply of grains at the global level, but the impact on grain prices in Canada will be mitigated by the expected relatively low value of the Canadian dollar. The economic outlook for the world and Canadian grain markets is expected to continue to be impacted by the domestic and international uncertainty caused by COVID-19. The next official estimates of field crop production will be available December 3, 2020, when STC publishes the final estimates of yield and production for 2020-21.

Total Grains and Oilseeds: October 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 27,820 27,569 27,480
Area harvested (kha) 26,861 26,105 26,211
Yield (t/ha) 3.24 3.35 3.42
Production (kt) 87,125 87,447 89,742
Imports (kt) 4,042 2,957 1,712
Total supply (kt) 105,876 104,933 104,850
Exports (kt) 46,869 45,077 46,170
Total Domestic Use (kt) 44,484 46,460 45,170
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 14,524 13,397 13,510
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Total Pulses and Special Crops: October 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 3,652 3,911 3,987
Area harvested (kha) 3,576 3,804 3,875
Yield (t/ha) 1.91 1.99 2.16
Production (kt) 6,814 7,559 8,385
Imports (kt) 294 327 277
Total supply (kt) 8,829 9,439 9,584
Exports (kt) 6,101 7,418 7,355
Total Domestic Use (kt) 1,175 1,099 1,109
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,552 922 1,120
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
All Principal Field Crops: October 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 31,472 31,480 31,467
Area harvested (kha) 30,438 29,909 30,086
Yield (t/ha) 3.09 3.18 3.26
Production (kt) 93,938 95,006 98,127
Imports (kt) 4,336 3,284 1,989
Total supply (kt) 114,705 114,372 114,434
Exports (kt) 52,970 52,495 53,525
Total Domestic Use (kt) 45,660 47,559 46,278
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 16,076 14,319 14,630
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat

Durum

For 2019-20, Canadian durum exports increased by 18% from 2018-19 to 5.34 million tonnes (Mt), as reported by Statistics Canada (STC). Carry-out stocks fell by 60% to 0.74 Mt, the lowest since 1985-86.

STC raised the carry-in stocks and production estimates and lowered the exports estimate for 2019-20 from the September report, which resulted in a 0.08 Mt increase for carry-out stocks.

For 2020-21, Canadian durum production is estimated by STC at 6.13 Mt, a 22% increase from 2019-20, as the 16% increase in seeded area was compounded by higher yields and a return to normal abandonment rate. The durum harvest is complete and the average quality in terms of grades is better than last year because of much better weather during harvest.

Total supply is estimated to fall marginally as the higher production is more than offset by lower carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to decrease slightly as they will be limited by the supply. Domestic use is expected to fall because there is less low quality durum available for feed use. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase slightly to 0.8 Mt, 42% lower than the past five year average of 1.39 Mt. The carry-out stocks forecast is 0.1 Mt higher than in the September report because of higher carry-in stocks.

World durum production is forecast to increase by 0.5 Mt from 2019-20 to 34.1 Mt, according to the International Grains Council (IGC). Supply is expected to fall by 0.4 Mt to 43.1 Mt because of lower carry-in stocks. Use is expected to rise by 0.7 Mt to 35.2 Mt, while carry-out stocks fall by 1.1 Mt to 7.9 Mt, the lowest since 2014-15. US durum production is estimated to rise by 0.4 Mt to 1.87 Mt, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The average Canadian crop year producer price for durum is forecast to be the same price as for 2019-20, with the average price in Saskatchewan for No. 1 CWAD 13% protein at $270 per tonne.

Durum [a]: October 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 2,503 1,980 2,302
Area harvested (kha) 2,456 1,902 2,241
Yield (t/ha) 2.36 2.64 2.74
Production (kt) 5,785 5,017 6,134
Imports (kt) [b] 23 96 50
Total supply (kt) 7,284 6,946 6,921
Exports (kt) [c] 4,526 5,344 5,300
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 204 216 215
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 531 429 384
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 926 866 821
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,832 737 800
Average Price ($/t) [g] 235 270 270
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Crop year average prices: Wheat (No.1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No.1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices. Barley (No. 1 feed, cash, I/S Lethbridge), Corn (No.2 CE, cash, I/S Chatham), Oats (US No. 2 Heavy, CBOT nearby futures); Rye (No. 1 CW, cash, I/S Saskatoon); Canola (No. 1 Canada, cash, Track Vancouver); Flaxseed (No. 1 CW, cash, I/S Saskatoon); Soybeans (No. 2 CE, cash, I/S Chatham)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat (excluding durum)

For 2019-20, Canadian wheat exports fell by 3% to 19.13 Mt, based on STC data. Carry-out stocks increased by 13% to 4.76 Mt.

STC raised the carry-in stocks estimate for 2019-20 by 0.11 Mt, raised the production estimate by 0.28 Mt, lowered exports by 0.1 Mt, raised food and industrial use by 0.1 Mt and raised the carry-out stocks estimate by 0.3 Mt from the September report.

For 2020-21, Production is estimated by STC to increase by 1% to 28.01 Mt, as a 3% decrease in seeded area was more than offset by lower abandonment and higher yields. Spring wheat production is estimated to fall by 2% to 25.16 Mt and winter wheat production to rise by 68% to 2.85 Mt. The wheat harvest is generally complete and the average quality in terms of grades is better than last year because of much better weather during harvest.

Estimated production by class of wheat, with 2019-20 production in brackets: winter wheat (hard red, soft red and soft white) 2,849 thousand tonnes (kt) (1,700 kt); Canada Western Red Spring (CWRS), premium quality hard wheat, 21,000 kt (22,425 kt); Canada Prairie Spring (CPS) 1,994 kt (1,501 kt), Canada Northern Hard Red Spring (CNHR) 801 kt (741 kt); soft white spring (CWSWS) 481 kt (549 kt), other western spring wheat 317 kt (270 kt), eastern spring wheat, mainly hard red spring (CERS), 571 kt (464 kt).

Total supply is estimated to increase by 3% because of higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to rise marginally. Canada is expected to have more competition from Australia in world wheat markets because its wheat production is projected to rise to 28.5 Mt from the drought-reduced 15.2 Mt in 2019-20. Offsetting this increase would be the reduction in wheat production in the EU and the US. Domestic use is expected to increase slightly. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by 15% to 5.5 Mt, 17% higher than the past five year average of 4.68 Mt. The carry-out stocks forecast is 0.3 Mt higher than in the September report because of higher carry-in stocks.

World all wheat production is forecast to rise by 9 Mt from 2019-20 to 773 Mt, while supply increases by 24 Mt to 1,072 Mt due to higher carry-in stocks, according to USDA. Total use is expected to rise by 2 Mt to 751 Mt, as higher food use is mostly offset by lower feed use. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise by 22 Mt to 321 Mt. Excluding China, carry-out stocks are projected to rise by 9 Mt to 157 Mt.

US all wheat production is estimated to fall by 2.9 Mt from 2019-20 to 49.7 Mt, according to USDA. Imports are forecast to increase by 0.5 Mt. Supply is estimated to fall by 3.8 Mt to 81 Mt. Exports are forecast to rise by 0.3 Mt, while domestic use is unchanged. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 4 Mt to 24 Mt.

Average Canadian producer prices for wheat for the crop year are forecast to be the same as for 2019-20, with the average price in Saskatchewan for No. 1 CWRS 13.5% protein at $225 per tonne.

Wheat Except Durum [a]: October 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 7,570 8,145 7,892
Area harvested (kha) 7,426 7,754 7,637
Yield 3.58 3.57 3.67
Production (kt) 26,567 27,653 28,011
Imports (b) 95 179 100
Total supply (kt) 31,918 32,040 32,873
Exports (kt) [c] 19,738 19,128 19,200
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 3,294 3,363 3,370
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 3,843 3,969 3,986
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 7,971 8,150 8,173
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 4,209 4,763 5,500
Average Price ($/t) [g] 245 225 225
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Crop year average prices: Wheat (No.1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No.1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices and are not comparable to CWB pool returns for previous years.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
All Wheat [a]: October 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 10,073 10,126 10,194
Area harvested (kha) 9,881 9,656 9,878
Yield (t/ha) 3.27 3.38 3.46
Production (kt) 32,352 32,670 34,145
Imports (kt) [b] 119 275 150
Total supply (kt) 39,202 38,986 39,794
Exports (kt) [c] 24,264 24,471 24,500
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 3,498 3,578 3,585
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 4,374 4,397 4,370
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 8,897 9,016 8,994
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 6,041 5,499 6,300
  • [a] Crop year is August-July
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Coarse grains

Barley

For 2019-20, Canadian barley exports decreased slightly from 2018-19 to 3.0 million tonnes (Mt). Exports of barley malt fell by 8% to 0.7 Mt while exports of barley grain remained stable at 2.3 Mt. The main destination countries were China, Japan, the US and Mexico.

Total domestic use increased by 27% from the prior year to 7.3 Mt on a sharp rise in feed use. Carry-out stocks increased by 11% from the historical low level in 2018-19, to about 1.0 Mt, the second lowest level on record.

In the October 6th supply and demand updates, STC raised barley industrial use for 2018-19 to 301 thousand tonnes (Kt) from 98 Kt. The increased volume was balanced by the deduction in 2018-19 feed use. For 2019-20, the industrial use was raised to 259 Kt from 114 Kt, reflecting a drop of 14% from the revised volume for the previous year. The 2019-20 feed use was trimmed down by nearly 200 Kt from the September estimate. The 2019-20 exports were raised marginally. Carry-in stocks remained unchanged.

For 2020-21, Canadian barley production is estimated by Statistics Canada (STC) to decrease by 1% from 2019-20 to 10.3 Mt, on expectations for a slightly higher area harvested, despite estimates for lower average yields. If materialized, the production would be 17% above the previous five-year average. Combined with higher carry-in stocks, Canadian barley supply is forecast at 11.3 Mt.

Exports are expected to continue to be strong throughout the year. Domestic use is expected to fall, mainly due to lower feed use, despite a recovery in industrial use. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise as a result of higher supplies and lower demand, but still be 17% lower than the previous five-year average.

The average price of feed barley for 2020-21 is expected to drop by 5% from 2019-20 to $220/tonne, due to ample domestic and world supplies.

World barley supply for 2020-21 is anticipated to increase by 1% to 203 Mt due to increased output from Australia, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Combined barley supplies from the Black Sea regions and the EU are expected to fall due to a sharp drop in Ukrainian supplies. Argentina is expected to produce less barley in 2020-21. Total demand around the world is forecast to expand on higher feed consumption, as well as industrial use. World carry-out stocks are expected to rise by 5% to a recent four-year high; the majority of the increase is located in the world’s major exporters.

Barley [a]: October 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 2,628 2,996 3,060
Area harvested (kha) 2,395 2,728 2,757
Yield (t/ha) 3.50 3.81 3.72
Production (kt) 8,380 10,383 10,255
Imports (kt) [b] 43 63 40
Total supply (kt) 9,667 11,308 11,251
Exports (kt) [c] 3,057 3,054 3,000
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 318 277 318
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 5,171 6,759 6,592
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 5,747 7,298 7,151
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 863 957 1,100
Average Price ($/t) [g] 260 232 220
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Barley (No.1 feed, cash, in-store Lethbridge).
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Corn

For 2019-20, Canada imported 2.1 Mt of corn, 15% lower than the previous year. Canadian corn exports fell sharply to 677 Kt from the year-earlier level and were the lowest in five years, due to a sharp decline in exports to the EU.

Total domestic use declined by 6% due to a reduction in industrial use and feed consumption. Carry out stocks expanded to a historical high of 2.56 Mt.

For 2020-21, Canadian corn production is estimated to increase by 5% from 2019-20 to14 Mt on expected good yields, despite the forecasted lower area planted. If materialized, production would be 2% above the previous five-year average. Imports are expected to decrease due to good grain production prospects, both in Eastern and Western Canada. Total supply is forecast to be comparable to the level of the previous year.

Domestic use is anticipated to fall due to lower feed use, despite increased industrial use. Exports are expected to rise based on good domestic supplies and an anticipation of continuing strong world demand. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall from the 2019-20 record level and below the prior five-year average.

The average price of Chatham corn for 2020-21 is expected to hold steady, as the forecast for a slight increase in US corn prices is expected to be offset by the narrowed basis.

The USDA trimmed down the 2020-21 production estimates for major corn exporters, including the US and Ukraine, but corn supplies from the major exporting countries, including South America and the Black Sea region will continue to flood the international market. World carry-out stocks are expected to hit a six-year low as demand continues to expand.

The 2020-21 corn supplies in the US is estimated to decrease from last year, but still be close to a record level. The USDA lifted its projection for the US 2020-21 corn weighted average price received by farmers to US$3.60/bu from US$3.50/bu in its September update.

Corn [a]: October 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,468 1,496 1,440
Area harvested (kha) 1,431 1,451 1,402
Yield (t/ha) 9.70 9.24 10.01
Production (kt) 13,885 13,404 14,029
Imports (kt) [b] 2,582 2,184 1,000
Total supply (kt) 18,884 17,568 17,589
Exports (kt) [c] 1,617 677 1,000
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 5,786 5,303 5,400
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 9,485 9,012 8,873
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 15,288 14,331 14,289
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,979 2,560 2,300
Average Price ($/t) [g] 194 195 195
  • [a] Crop year is September-August.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Corn (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham).
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019, imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC but will be available from STC on October 4 2018. For 2019-2020[f], area, yield and production are from the STC survey but imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Oats

For 2019-20, Canadian oat exports increased by 6% to 2.62 Mt on higher oat grain and oat product exports, with 85% of the exports shipped to the US and nearly a third of the rest to Mexico.

Total domestic use expanded by 18% to 1.60 Mt, due to a sharp increase in demand for feed consumption, as well as higher demand for food processing. Carry-out stocks rose by 7% to 0.43 Mt, which is close to a record low.

In the October 6th supply and demand updates, STC lowered oat food use for 2018-19 to 122 Kt from 182 Kt. The reduced volume was balanced by the increase in 2018-19 feed use. For 2019-20, food use was raised slightly to 143 Kt, reflecting an expansion of 17% from the previous year. Other revisions included slightly lowering production and exports, as well as marginally raising imports and the category of feed waste and dockage. Carry-in stocks remained unchanged.

For 2020-21, Canadian oat production is estimated to increase by 6% to 4.5 Mt on expected higher area and good yields. If materialized, it would be the second largest output on record since 1983. Total supply is forecast to be 6% higher than the previous year.

Exports are projected to remain strong on stable demand from the major importing countries, despite strong competition from other major exporters. Total domestic use is expected to hold steady. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase significantly from the previous year.

The CBOT oat futures price for 2020-21 is expected to drop by 7% from the previous year, to $255/tonne, due to ample supplies in Canada, the US and around the world.

The USDA lifted the 2020-21 production forecast for the world’s main oat producing countries, with a sharp increase of 79% for Argentina. World oat supply for 2020-21 is anticipated to recover from the previous year. Total demand, including feed consumption and food consumption, is expected to increase, but more slowly than the increase in supplies, as a result world ending stocks are expected to increase.

Oats [a]: October 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,235 1,459 1,554
Area harvested (kha) 1,005 1,171 1,245
Yield (t/ha) 3.42 3.61 3.62
Production (kt) 3,436 4,227 4,503
Imports (kt) [b] 11 13 10
Total supply (kt) 4,225 4,637 4,939
Exports (kt) [c] 2,475 2,615 2,650
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 122 143 130
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 1,109 1,324 1,341
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 1,353 1,597 1,589
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 397 426 700
Average Price ($/t) [g] 254 274 255
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Oats (US No.2 Heavy, Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) nearby futures)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Rye

For 2019-20, Canadian rye exports increased by 13% to 165 Kt with more than 99% of the exports shipped to the US, the world’s leading importer of rye. Total domestic use climbed by 7% to 180 Kt on higher feed consumption and industrial demand. Carry-out stocks fell by 18% to 40 Kt, the lowest level since 2011.

For 2020-21, Canadian rye production is estimated to increase by 29% to 431 Kt, due to higher area, offsetting lower yield. Supply is expected to increase by 23% to 473 Kt, the highest in the last three years.

Domestic use, exports and carry-out stocks are projected to rise due to available bumper supplies. Rye prices are expected to fall from 2019-20, due to higher supplies in Canada and around the world.

World rye supplies and carry-out stocks are forecast to increase and most of the increases are located in the major exporting countries. World consumption is anticipated to increase on expanded feed use, as well as food, seed and industrial use.

Rye [a]: October 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 136 175 237
Area harvested (kha) 79 103 146
Yield (t/ha) 2.99 3.25 2.95
Production (kt) 236 333 431
Imports (kt) [b] 2 3 2
Total supply (kt) 363 385 473
Exports (kt) [c] 146 165 170
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 19 19 24
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 133 140 204
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 167 180 243
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 49 40 60
Average Price ($/t) [g] 236 210 175
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Rye (No.1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada
Mixed Grains [a]: October 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 144 145 166
Area harvested (kha) 69 68 67
Yield (t/ha) 2.94 2.84 3.14
Production (kt) 203 192 210
Imports (kt) [b] 0 0 0
Total supply (kt) 203 192 210
Exports (kt) [c] 0 0 0
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 0 0 0
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 203 192 210
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 203 192 210
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 0 0 0
  • [a] August-July crop year
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Total Coarse Grains: October 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area Seeded 5,610 6,271 6,457
Area harvested (kha) 4,979 5,520 5,617
Yield (t/ha) 5.25 5.17 5.24
Production (kt) 26,140 28,539 29,427
Imports (kt) [b] 2,638 2,264 1,052
Total supply (kt) 33,342 34,091 34,461
Exports (kt) [c] 7,295 6,510 6,820
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 6,245 5,743 5,872
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 16,103 17,427 17,219
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 22,759 23,598 23,481
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 3,288 3,982 4,160
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Oilseeds

Canola

For 2019-20, Statistics Canada reported an 11% rise in Canadian canola exports from 2018-19 to 10.2 million tonnes (Mt), while carry-out stocks declined by 29% to 3.1 Mt, versus the previous five-year average of 2.6 Mt.

Since the September release of the Outlook, Statistics Canada adjusted the production estimates for canola back to the 2017-18 crop year and raised the 2019-20 production estimate by 0.13 Mt. Minor revisions were also made to import, feed, waste and dockage and export estimates for 2019-20. Carry-out stocks were increased to 3.1 Mt versus the 2.7 Mt reported in September.

For 2020-21, Canadian canola production is estimated at 19.4 Mt, on a marginal decline in seeded area and a 1% drop in yields to 2.3 t/ha. Total supplies are estimated down by 7%, to 22.6Mt on lower carry-in stocks and stable imports.

Domestic crush is forecast to decline marginally to 9.8 Mt on constrained supplies, the forecast is supported by the Canadian Grain Commissions report of domestic disappearance which is running 3% behind last year for the crop year to-date. Exports are forecast to increase marginally from last year to 10.2 Mt on support from strong world demand, exports to date are running 30% ahead of this time last year on strong early crop year shipments. The export pace will need to slow down later in the crop year as Canadian supplies of canola tighten, barring an unexpected significant upward revision in the production estimate.

Carry-out stocks are forecast to tighten to 2.3 Mt, for a stocks-use-ratio of 11%, while canola prices are estimated at $540/t on support from the rally in world oilseed, vegetable oil and protein meal prices. Canola prices for 2019-20 were $484/t and the 5 year average was $511/t.

For 2020-21, world consumption of canola-rapeseed is forecast to decline to 70.3 Mt, versus 71.5 Mt in 2019-20 and 2018-19, according to the USDA. The drop in usage is concentrated in China and India where consumption is forecast to fall by 0.25 Mt and 0.20 Mt, respectively, to 18.75 Mt and 7.75 Mt. In Canada total usage is forecast to fall to 20.4 Mt from 21.1 Mt the previous year and the 5 year average of 19.1 Mt, on a tightening of domestic supplies. Japanese consumption of canola-rapeseed is predicted to remain stable at 2.3 Mt, while usage in the European Union falls by 3% to 23.1 Mt following another year of challenging growing conditions and constrained rapeseed supplies. Consumption by other countries is forecast to rise by about 0.1 Mt to 10.7 Mt.

Based on the drop off in world canola-rapeseed production and relatively stable consumption, ending stocks are predicted to tighten sharply to 5.2 Mt, versus 6.7 Mt in 2019-20 and 9.4 Mt in 2018-19. Most of the decline in ending stocks occurs in Canada but European carry-out also tighten by 32% to 0.7 Mt. Chinese ending stocks of canola-rapeseed are projected at a stable 1.1 Mt, marginally under the 1.2 Mt carry-out for the past two years. The tightening of ending stocks at the world level supports a price premium for canola-rapeseed over and above the concurrent price rally occurring in soybeans.

Canola [a]: October 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 9,232 8,481 8,409
Area harvested (kha) 9,120 8,319 8,323
Yield (t/ha) 2.27 2.36 2.33
Production (kt) 20,724 19,607 19,393
Imports (kt) [b] 147 155 100
Total supply (kt) 23,506 24,197 22,623
Exports (kt) [c] 9,202 10,170 10,200
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 9,295 10,129 9,800
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 512 707 313
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 9,869 10,897 10,173
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 4,435 3,131 2,250
Average Price ($/t) [g] 497 484 540
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Canola (No.1 Canada, cash, Track Vancouver)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Flaxseed

For 2019-20, Canadian exports of flaxseed declined by 0.1 Mt, to 0.35 Mt, on lackluster world demand for the Canadian crop. Carry-out stocks remained virtually unchanged at 64,000 tonnes but prices increased by 4% from 2018-19 and by 9% from the 5 year average of $476/t.

For 2020-21, Canadian flaxseed production is estimated by STC at 0.55 Mt based on a seeded area of 0.37 Mha and slightly above normal yields of 1.6 Mt. Supplies are forecast to increase by 10% to 0.63 Mt as the higher output offsets the virtually unchanged carry-in stocks and modest decline in imports. 

Exports are forecast up by 27% from 2019-20, to 0.45 Mt, on higher available supplies and strong world oilseed demand. Total domestic use is forecast to fall sharply to 0.05 Mt on a drop in feed, waste and dockage. Carry-out stocks are forecast at 0.13 Mt while prices rise by 10% to $570/t for 2020-21.

Flaxseed (excluding solin) [a]: October 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 347 379 369
Area harvested (kha) 342 339 344
Yield (t/ha) 1.44 1.43 1.60
Production (kt) 492 486 552
Imports (kt) [b] 9 21 10
Total supply (kt) 628 567 626
Exports (kt) [c] 468 350 450
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 0 0 0
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 83 138 31
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 100 154 51
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 60 64 125
Average Price ($/t) [g] 496 518 570
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Flaxseed (No.1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • n/a: not available
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Soybeans

For 2019-20, Canadian exports are estimated at 3.6 Mt, a sharp drop from the 5.6 Mt exported in 2018-19, due to stiff competition from large US and South American supplies. Feed, waste and dockage was estimated at a record 0.84 Mt, indicating a possible overestimation of production for the crop year or a possible underestimation of exports and domestic use. Ending stocks are estimated at a record 0.72 Mt, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 8%. Soybean prices are up slightly to about $420/t versus $406/t for 2018-19.

For 2020-21, production is forecast at 6.2 Mt vs 6.1 Mt in 2019-20 and 7.4 Mt in 2018-19. Total supply is forecast to rise to 7.4 Mt, vs 7.2 Mt for 2019-20 on a rise in carry-in stocks, production and imports. Exports are forecast on increase to 4.2 Mt on support from strong world demand. Domestic processing is forecast up slightly at 1.9 Mt, as crushers return to a normal soybean processing pace. 

Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease slightly to 0.68 Mt versus 0.72 Mt for 2019-20 and the 5 year average of 0.56 Mt. Soybean prices are forecast to increase by 12% to $470/t, on support from higher world prices.

The October issue of the USDA Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade highlights the twin impacts of strong Chinese buying and limited Brazil supplies on world soybean prices, with the benchmark nearby contract Chicago Mercantile Exchange exceeding US$10.00/bu (about C$500/t) in mid-September. Prices rallied again following the release of the USDA’s Grain Stocks report which showed tighter than expected US stocks. At the time of publication, current prices are up about 27% from mid-Aug levels. 

While the dynamics behind the price surge are complex, they in large part reflect a sharp increase in Chinese buying attributed to the recovery of China’s pork industry from African Swine Fever, with imports up 15% for the first 8 months of 2020. With Brazilian supplies running tight, China switched to buying from the US with outstanding sales in mid-September nearly equal to the record set in 2019. 

Based on the strong Chinese demand and limited Brazilian and US soybean supplies, world soybean prices are expected to remain strong and stay well above the low levels seen in 2019 and earlier in 2020. However, gains are likely to be limited in magnitude as soybean stocks in China are thought to be high which would mitigate any price strength resulting from production shortfalls in South or North America over the upcoming crop year.

The factors to watch are:

  1. The strength and duration of the current soybean price rally
  2. Chinese buying pace in the face of higher world soybean prices
  3. potential disruptions in US export and crushing pace
  4. Canadian harvest pace and yields
  5. Brazil and Argentine planting intentions and (6) the state of US-China trade negotiations
Soybeans [a] : October 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 2,558 2,313 2,052
Area harvested (kha) 2,540 2,271 2,049
Yield (t/ha) 2.92 2.71 3.04
Production (kt) 7,417 6,145 6,225
Imports (kt) [b] 1,131 242 400
Total supply (kt) 9,199 7,093 7,346
Exports (kt) [c] 5,640 3,576 4,200
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 2,058 1,742 1,900
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 563 841 371
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 2,859 2,796 2,471
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 700 721 675
Average Price ($/t) [g] 406 419 470
  • [a] Crop year is September-August.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Soybeans (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019, imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC but will be available from STC on October 4 2018. For 2019-2020[f], area, yield and production are from the STC survey but imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada
Total Oilseeds : October 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 12,137 11,172 10,829
Area harvested (kha) 12,001 10,929 10,716
Yield (t/ha) 2.39 2.40 2.44
Production (kt) 28,633 26,239 26,170
Imports (kt) [b] 1,286 418 510
Total supply (kt) 33,333 31,857 30,595
Exports (kt) [c] 15,310 14,095 14,850
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 11,354 11,871 11,700
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 1,159 1,685 714
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 12,828 13,847 12,695
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 5,195 3,915 3,050
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada
Total Grains and Oilseeds : October 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 27,820 27,569 27,480
Area harvested (kha) 26,861 26,105 26,211
Yield (t/ha) 3.24 3.35 3.42
Production (kt) 87,125 87,447 89,742
Imports (kt) [b] 4,042 2,957 1,712
Total supply (kt) 105,876 104,933 104,850
Exports (kt) [c] 46,869 45,077 46,170
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 44,484 46,460 45,170
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 14,524 13,397 13,510
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Pulses and special crops

Dry peas

For 2019-20, exports were higher than the 2018-19 level at 3.78 million tonnes (Mt) due to record shipments to China. This was partly offset by lower exports to Bangladesh and the US. Domestic use was lower compared to the previous year. The average dry pea price was 2% lower at $265/t, due to higher exports, which led to a decline in carry-out stocks in 2019-20. The average crop year prices for yellow peas was higher than for the previous year, but prices were lower than 2018-19 for green types and feed peas.

For 2020-21, production in Canada is estimated to increase by 3% to nearly 4.4 Mt as lower harvested area, particularly in Alberta, was offset by higher yields. Alberta and Saskatchewan are expected to account for 4.1 Mt of the dry pea production, with the remainder of the production in Manitoba, British Columbia and Eastern Canada. Supply is expected to be marginally higher by 3% over last year at nearly 4.7 Mt. Exports are forecast to be largely unchanged at 3.8 Mt, with China, the US and Bangladesh expected to be Canada’s top three markets. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall marginally with expectations for a small rise in domestic use. The average price is expected to increase by 4% from 2019-20 at $275/t.

During the month of September, Saskatchewan green pea farmgate prices rose $30/t each, while yellow pea farmgate prices increased $20/t each. Green dry peas prices are currently at a $35/t premium to yellow dry peas compared to last year when green pea prices were a $115/t premium to yellow peas.

In the US, area seeded to dry peas for 2020-21 is forecast by the USDA to decrease by 9% from last year to 1.0 million acres. This is largely due to an expected fall in area seeded in North Dakota. With lower yields and higher abandonment, US dry pea production is forecast by the USDA to decrease by 17% to just over 0.8 Mt. The US exported about 345 thousand tonnes (Kt) of dry peas, mostly to Canada, the Philippines and China. The US is expected to try and maintain its market share in 2020-21 despite production lower than the previous year.

Dry Peas [a]: October 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,463 1,753 1,722
Area harvested (kha) 1,431 1,711 1,675
Yield (t/ha) 2.50 2.48 2.60
Production (kt) 3,581 4,237 4,360
Imports (kt) [b] 62 82 60
Total supply (kt) 4,291 4,630 4,653
Exports (b) 3,270 3,781 3,800
Total Domestic Use (c) 708 616 628
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 312 233 225
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 8 5 5
Average Price (d) 270 265 275
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2019-2020[f] and the years before 2019-2020[f], area, yield and production are from STC. For the years before 2019-2020[f], imports, exports, seed requirements and carry-out stocks are from STC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Lentils

For 2019-20, lentil exports rose to a record 2.9 Mt, up 41% from the previous year. Of this, 1.9 Mt were red lentil types, with 1.0 Mt consisting of the green lentil types. The leading export markets were India, the United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh and Turkey. Total domestic use was 13.6% higher than the previous year at 0.26 Mt. Carry-out stocks fell by 75% to 0.2 Mt. The average Canadian lentil price was significantly higher than 2018-19 with an increase of 25%, due to increased demand and tighter carry-out stocks. No.1 large green lentil prices maintained a crop year premium of $105/t over No.1 red lentil prices.

For 2020-21, due to higher yields and area, production is estimated to increase by 29% to a near record 3.1 Mt. The production of large green lentils is forecast to increase from last year to 0.7 Mt and the production of red lentils is expected to be higher than last year at 2.1 Mt. Production of the other remaining lentil types is expected to be similar to last year at nearly 0.3 Mt.

Supply, however, is expected to be largely unchanged from last year as smaller carry-in stocks offset the increased production. Exports are expected to be 2% lower than last year at 2.7 Mt, with Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and India expected to remain the top three export markets. Domestic use is forecast to be 3% lower than last year at 249 kt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by 31% over the previous year to nearly 0.3 Mt. The overall average price is forecast to be 20% higher than 2019-20. Large green lentil prices are forecast to have a similar premium over red lentil prices when compared to last year.

In the US, the area seeded to lentils for 2020-21 is forecast by the USDA at 0.3 million acres, up over 20% from 2019-20 due to higher area seeded in Montana. With higher yields and lower abandonment, 2020-21 US lentil production is therefore forecast by USDA to rise to nearly 0.3 Mt, 22% higher than in 2019-20. US lentil exports are about 0.2 Mt annually with the main markets continuing to be the EU, Canada, India and Mexico.

Lentils [a]: October 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,525 1,530 1,713
Area harvested (kha) 1,499 1,489 1,681
Yield (t/ha) 1.46 1.60 1.82
Production (kt) 2,192 2,382 3,065
Imports (kt) [b] 51 90 50
Total supply (kt) 3,115 3,327 3,324
Exports (b) 2,033 2,861 2,800
Total Domestic Use (c) 227 258 249
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 856 209 275
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 38 7 9
Average Price (d) 390 485 585
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2019-2020[f] and the years before 2019-2020[f], area, yield and production are from STC. For the years before 2019-2020[f], imports, exports, seed requirements and carry-out stocks are from STC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Dry beans

For 2019-20, dry bean exports were 4% higher than the previous year at a record 361 kt. The EU and the US were the top two markets for Canadian dry beans, with smaller volumes exported to Angola, Japan and Mexico. Strong demand and lower than expected North American dry bean crop quality provided the majority of the support for Canadian dry bean prices in 2019-20.

For 2020-21, production is estimated to rise by 15% to nearly 365 kt, consisting of 95 Kt of white pea bean types and 270 Kt of coloured bean types. Production in Manitoba increased while production in Ontario decreased. In Alberta, colored dry bean production increased marginally to 67 kt.

Supply is forecast to increase by 10%, to a record 0.5 Mt despite lower carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be 4% lower than last year at 345 Kt. The US and the EU are forecast to remain the main markets for Canadian dry beans, with expectations that Canada will continue to expand its market share in Africa. Carry-out stocks are also expected to rise sharply to 110 kt. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to decrease by 15% due to the larger North American supply.

In the US, area seeded to dry beans is forecast by the USDA to rise by 35% to 1.7 million acres, mostly due to a larger area seeded in North Dakota and Michigan. US total dry bean production (excluding chickpeas) is forecast by the USDA at a record 1.6 Mt, up 68% from 2019-20. US export markets are expected to continue to be the EU, Mexico and Canada. US dry bean export quantities are similar to Canada at about 0.3-0.4 Mt annually.

Dry Beans [a]: October 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 143 160 173
Area harvested (kha) 137 150 157
Yield (t/ha) 2.49 2.11 2.32
Production (kt) 341 317 365
Imports (kt) [b] 98 75 85
Total supply (kt) 459 456 500
Exports (b) 348 361 345
Total Domestic Use (c) 47 45 45
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 65 50 110
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 16 12 28
Average Price (d) 815 985 835
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Chickpeas

For 2019-20, Canadian chickpea exports fell by 29% from the previous year to 105 Kt. Lower exports to Pakistan resulted in the decrease in exports. As a result of the larger supply, coupled with a decrease in exports, carry-out stocks rose sharply from the previous year to a record high 250 kt. The average price increased marginally by 2% to $490/t, due to a large decrease in world supply for all chickpea types.

For 2020-21, production is estimated to fall 5% to 239 Kt, as lower area but higher yields. However, supply is forecast to increase by 23% to a record 539 Kt, due to higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be unchanged, with the EU, the US and Pakistan expected to remain the main markets for Canadian chickpeas. Carry-out stocks are expected to increase by 40% and continue to be burdensome for prices. The average price is forecast to rise 12%, with an expectation for decreased world supply.

US chickpea area seeded is estimated by the USDA at 0.25 million acres, down 44% from 2019-20. With above normal yields and lower abandonment, 2020-21 US chickpea production is forecast by the USDA at 176 kt, 38% lower than 2019-20.

Chickpeas [a]: October 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 179 159 121
Area harvested (kha) 176 156 115
Yield (t/ha) 1.77 1.61 2.07
Production (kt) 311 252 239
Imports (kt) [b] 51 48 50
Total supply (kt) 376 439 539
Exports (b) 147 105 105
Total Domestic Use (c) 89 85 84
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 140 250 350
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 59 132 185
Average Price (d) 480 490 550
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Mustard seed

For 2019-20, Canadian mustard exports decreased by 9% to 113 Kt, down from the previous year due to lower export demand from the EU. However, due to lower supply, carry-out stocks fell. Prices rose for yellow types, but were unchanged for all other mustard seed types, due to pressure from the decreased domestic supply.

For 2020-21, production is estimated to decrease by nearly 24% to 103 Kt due to lower harvested area but higher yields. The production of brown and oriental types fell while yellow types rose. However, supply is forecast to fall by only 20%, due to high carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to be higher than last year by 2% at 115 Kt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease sharply by 83% to 10 kt. The US and the EU are expected to remain the main export markets for Canadian mustard seed. The average price is forecast to increase by 14%, due to tighter domestic supply.

Mustard Seed [a]: October 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 204 161 104
Area harvested (kha) 197 155 101
Yield (t/ha) 0.88 0.87 1.02
Production (kt) 174 135 103
Imports (kt) [b] 8 7 8
Total supply (kt) 235 214 171
Exports (b) 121 113 115
Total Domestic Use (c) 42 41 46
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 73 61 10
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 45 39 6
Average Price (d) 690 700 800
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020[f] which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Canary seed

For 2019-20, exports were 4% higher than the previous year at 161 Kt. This was due to higher exports to Mexico. The average price was supported by tight Canadian carry-out stocks.

For 2020-21, production is estimated to be reduced by 16 kt to 159 Kt, as lower harvested area is combined with decreased yields. Exports are expected to be limited by lower supply. The EU and Mexico are forecast to remain the main export markets, followed by South America and the US. Carry-out stocks are expected to tighten. The average price is forecast to be only slightly lower than the 2019-20 level due to similar world demand and tight Canadian stocks.

Canary Seed [a]: October 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 109 118 111
Area harvested (kha) 109 115 107
Yield (t/ha) 1.45 1.52 1.48
Production (kt) 158 175 159
Imports (kt) [b] 0 0 0
Total supply (kt) 174 186 174
Exports (b) 156 161 155
Total Domestic Use (c) 7 9 9
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 11 15 10
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 7 9 6
Average Price (d) 505 630 620
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020[f] which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Sunflower seed

For 2019-20, sunflower seed exports were higher by 4% at 37 Kt due to increased demand from the US. Despite this, carry-out stocks rose slightly. The total average Canadian price for sunflower seed increased marginally from the previous year due to higher oilseed type prices, but unchanged confectionery type prices.

For 2020-21, production is estimated at 95 Kt, up 51% from last year, due to lower harvested area and yields. Supply is expected to increase by 20% to a record 224 Kt due to higher production and carry-in stocks. Although exports are forecast to be lower, carry-out stocks are expected to increase by 34% to 140 kt. The US is expected to remain Canada’s main export market for sunflower seed. The average price is forecast to fall by 9% as similar prices for confectionery sunflower seed combine with lower prices for the oilseed types of sunflowers.

Area seeded to sunflower seed in the US is estimated by the USDA at 1.7 million acres, 26% higher than last year due to the increase in area seeded in North and South Dakota. The area seeded to oil type varieties increased to 1.5 million acres and the area seeded to confectionery type varieties rose to 0.2 million acres. For 2020-21, US sunflower seed production is forecast by USDA at 1.3 Mt, 44% higher than last year.

For 2020-21, the global supply of sunflower seed is estimated by the USDA at 56.1 Mt. This is 8% lower than last year due to lower expected production in Ukraine and Russia. World domestic use is expected to fall to 52 Mt and world exports are forecast to decrease by 27% to 2.7 Mt. World carry-out stocks are expected to fall by 36% to 1.4 Mt, well below the five year average. This may provide some support for world sunflower seed prices.

Sunflower Seed [a]: October 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 29 31 44
Area harvested (kha) 27 29 40
Yield (t/ha) 2.13 2.18 2.41
Production (kt) 57 63 95
Imports (kt) [b] 24 26 24
Total supply (kt) 179 186 224
Exports (b) 26 37 35
Total Domestic Use (c) 56 44 49
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 97 104 140
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 118 128 168
Average Price (d) 585 620 565
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020[f] which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Total Pulses and Special Crops [a]: October 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 3,652 3,911 3,987
Area harvested (kha) 3,576 3,804 3,875
Yield (t/ha) 1.91 1.99 2.16
Production (kt) 6,814 7,559 8,385
Imports (kt) [b] 294 327 277
Total supply (kt) 8,829 9,439 9,584
Exports (b) 6,101 7,418 7,355
Total Domestic Use (c) 1,175 1,099 1,109
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,552 922 1,120
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC and STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Historical data

Historical principal field crops data are available in spreadsheet format and can be obtained by emailing aafc.bulletin.aac@canada.ca. Please specify crops, crop years, and preferred file format in your request.

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