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Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops, 2020-08-25

Canada: Outlook for Field Crops (PDF version, 255 KB)

Historical Data

This report is an update of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) July outlook report for the 2019-20 crop year and the current 2020-21 crop year.

The 2019-20 crop year closed at the end of July for most crops except corn and soybeans, for which the crop year closes at the end of August. Preliminary estimates indicate that total exports of all field crops decreased slightly from the previous year to 52.5 million tonnes (Mt), of which about 86% is grains and oilseeds (G&O) and 14% is pulses and special crops (P&SC). From a disposition point of view, exports, domestic use and carry-out stocks represent about 47, 42, and 11% of total supply, respectively. Total carry-out stocks are expected to be significantly below the 10-year average and almost 20% lower than the previous year largely due to the lower supply of G&O and increased exports for P&SC. There was a notable decrease in carry-out stocks for canola, durum, lentils and peas. In general, abundant world supplies have pressured world prices but the low value of the Canadian dollar provides strong support to prices in Canada.

For the 2020-21 crop year, the total area seeded to field crops in Canada is marginally lower than it was in 2019-20, based on Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimates of principal field crop areas. Harvest is underway for most crops and, in general, is expected to be complete by mid-September except for some later seeded crops. Average yields are forecast to increase due to improved growing conditions, especially for corn and soybeans in Eastern Canada. Total crop production is forecast to increase by almost 4% to 96.8 Mt. However, due to the major set-back in carry-in stocks, total supply is expected to fall. As a result, total exports are forecast to decrease slightly for G&O combined with a notable decrease in exports for P&SC. Total domestic use is expected to decrease by 3% due to lower domestic use for G&O. Total carry-out stocks are forecast to increase to 14.8 Mt, slightly above the 10-year average. World grain prices will continue to be pressured by an abundant supply of grains at the global level but the impact on grain prices in Canada will be mitigated by the low value of the Canadian dollar. The economic outlook for the world and Canadian grain markets is expected to continue to be strongly tempered by the domestic and international uncertainty caused by COVID-19.

Total Grains and Oilseeds: August 25, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 27,820 27,568 27,456
Area harvested (kha) 26,861 26,105 26,189
Yield (t/ha) 3.22 3.30 3.41
Production (kt) 86,593 86,077 89,269
Imports (kt) 4,043 3,097 2,412
Total supply (kt) 105,215 103,096 103,336
Exports (kt) 46,881 45,392 45,120
Total Domestic Use (kt) 44,412 46,049 44,356
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 13,922 11,655 13,860
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Total Pulses and Special Crops: August 25, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 3,652 3,897 3,953
Area harvested (kha) 3,576 3,788 3,878
Yield (t/ha) 1.88 1.93 1.95
Production (kt) 6,714 7,317 7,574
Imports (kt) 293 316 277
Total supply (kt) 8,734 8,935 8,511
Exports (kt) 6,101 7,129 6,265
Total Domestic Use (kt) 1,331 1,146 1,326
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,302 660 920
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
All Principal Field Crops: August 25, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 31,472 31,465 31,408
Area harvested (kha) 30,437 29,893 30,067
Yield (t/ha) 3.07 3.12 3.22
Production (kt) 93,307 93,394 96,843
Imports (kt) 4,336 3,413 2,689
Total supply (kt) 113,949 112,030 111,847
Exports (kt) 52,982 52,521 51,385
Total Domestic Use (kt) 45,743 47,194 45,682
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 15,224 12,315 14,780
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat

Durum

For 2019-20, Canadian durum exports are forecast to increase by 17% to 5.3 Mt due to stronger demand resulting from a decrease in world production. The exports forecast is 0.3 million tonnes (Mt) higher than in the July report because of an increase in exports late in the crop year. The unusually high imports in 2019-20 are due to exports of low quality durum from North Dakota and Montana to feed mills in western Canada. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 55% from 2018-19 to 0.8 Mt, 44% lower than the past five-year average of 1.43 Mt. The carry-out stocks forecast was reduced by 0.1 Mt from the July report.

The official exports data for 2019-20 will be released by Statistics Canada (STC) on September 3, followed by the carry-out stocks estimates on September 4.

The average Canadian crop year producer price for durum rose by 15% from 2018-19 due to lower world, Canadian and US supply.

For 2020-21, the area seeded to durum in Canada increased by 16% from 2019-20, according to the STC seeded area survey. Production is forecast to rise by 30% to 6.5 Mt, as the increase in seeded area is compounded by higher yields and a return to normal abandonment rate. The production forecast was raised by 0.5 Mt from the July report due to improved crop conditions. Supply is projected to rise by 7% as the higher production is mostly offset by lower carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to be the same as for 2019-20. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise by 50% to 1.2 Mt.

World durum production is forecast to increase by 0.6 Mt from 2019-20 to 34.2 Mt, according to the International Grains Council (IGC). Supply is expected to fall by 0.7 Mt to 42.8 Mt because of lower carry-in stocks. Use is expected to rise by 0.1 Mt to 35.1 Mt, while carry-out stocks fall by 0.9 Mt to 7.7 Mt, the lowest since 2014-15. US durum production is forecast to rise by 0.22 Mt to 1.68 Mt according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The average Canadian crop year producer price for durum is forecast to decrease by 4% from 2019-20 due to the higher Canadian supply.

Durum [a]: August 25, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 2,503 1,980 2,302
Area harvested (kha) 2,456 1,902 2,256
Yield (t/ha) 2.34 2.62 2.88
Production (kt) 5,745 4,977 6,500
Imports (kt) [b] 24 100 50
Total supply (kt) 7,245 6,869 7,350
Exports (kt) [c] 4,526 5,300 5,300
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 204 210 210
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 532 338 418
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 927 769 850
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,792 800 1,200
Average Price ($/t) [g] 235 270 245-275
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Crop year average prices: Wheat (No.1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No.1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices. Barley (No. 1 feed, cash, I/S Lethbridge), Corn (No.2 CE, cash, I/S Chatham), Oats (US No. 2 Heavy, CBOT nearby futures); Rye (No. 1 CW, cash, I/S Saskatoon); Canola (No. 1 Canada, cash, Track Vancouver); Flaxseed (No. 1 CW, cash, I/S Saskatoon); Soybeans (No. 2 CE, cash, I/S Chatham)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat (excluding durum)

For 2019-20, Canadian wheat exports are forecast to fall by 5% to 18.7 Mt, due to more competition from other exporters because of higher world production. The exports forecast is 0.5 Mt higher than in the July report because of an increase in exports late in the crop year. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by 6% to 4.5 Mt, 9% lower than the past five-year average of 4.96 Mt. The unusually high imports in 2019-20 are due to exports of low quality wheat from North Dakota and Montana to feed mills in western Canada. The carry-out stocks forecast was reduced by 0.5 Mt from the July report.

Average Canadian producer prices for wheat for the crop year fell by 8% from 2018-19 because of the higher world supply.

For 2020-21, Canadian area seeded to wheat decreased by 3% from 2019-20, as a 17% increase in the winter wheat area was more than offset by a 5% decrease for spring wheat area, based on the STC seeded area survey.

Seeded area by class of wheat, with 2019-20 area in brackets: winter wheat (hard red, soft red and soft white) 636 thousand hectares (Kha) (545 Kha); Canada Western Red Spring (CWRS), premium quality hard wheat, 6,185 Kha (6,679 Kha); Canada Prairie Spring (CPS) 463 Kha (366 Kha), Canada Northern Hard Red Spring (CNHR) 229 Kha (210 Kha); soft white spring (CWSWS) 119 Kha (135 Kha), other western spring wheat 95 Kha (80 Kha), eastern spring wheat, mainly hard red spring (CERS), 165 Kha (129 Kha).

Production is projected to rise by 4% to 28.4 Mt. The winter wheat production is projected to increase by 65% to 2.8 Mt due to higher seeded area and a return to a normal abandonment rate. Spring wheat production is expected to fall marginally to 25.6 Mt.

The production forecast was raised by 0.5 Mt from the July report due to improved crop conditions. Supply is forecast to increase by 4% because of higher production and carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to rise by 2%. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by 22% to 5.5 Mt.

World all wheat production is forecast to rise by 2 Mt from 2019-20 to 766 Mt, while supply increases by 21 Mt to 1,067 Mt due to higher carry-in stocks, according to USDA. Total use is expected to rise by 3 Mt to 750 Mt, as higher food use is partly offset by lower feed use. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise by 16 Mt to 317 Mt. Excluding China, carry-out stocks are projected to rise by 5 Mt to 154 Mt.

US all wheat production is forecast to fall by 2.3 Mt from 2019-20 to 50 Mt, according to USDA. Imports are forecast to increase by 0.7 Mt. Supply of all wheat is projected to fall by 2.5 Mt to 82 Mt. Exports are forecast to rise by 0.3 Mt, while domestic use increases by 0.4 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 3.2 Mt to 25.2 Mt.

Average Canadian producer prices for wheat for the crop year are forecast to be the same as for 2019-20.

Wheat Except Durum [a]: August 25, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 7,570 8,145 7,891
Area harvested (kha) 7,425 7,754 7,643
Yield 3.56 3.53 3.72
Production (kt) 26,456 27,371 28,400
Imports (b) 95 170 100
Total supply (kt) 31,807 31,788 33,000
Exports (kt) [c] 19,750 18,700 19,000
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 3,294 3,360 3,390
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 3,681 4,433 4,280
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 7,809 8,588 8,500
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 4,247 4,500 5,500
Average Price ($/t) [g] 245 225 210-240
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Crop year average prices: Wheat (No.1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No.1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices and are not comparable to CWB pool returns for previous years.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
All Wheat [a]: August 25, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 10,073 10,125 10,193
Area harvested (kha) 9,881 9,656 9,899
Yield (t/ha) 3.26 3.35 3.53
Production (kt) 32,201 32,348 34,900
Imports (kt) [b] 119 270 150
Total supply (kt) 39,052 38,658 40,350
Exports (kt) [c] 24,276 24,000 24,300
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 3,498 3,570 3,600
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 4,213 4,771 4,698
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 8,736 9,358 9,350
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 6,040 5,300 6,700
  • [a] Crop year is August-July
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Coarse grains

Barley

For 2019-20, Canadian barley exports are expected to be slightly below the year-earlier level due to lower exports of barley malt while exports of barley grain remain stable. The majority of Canadian barley grain is exported to China, Japan, the United States and Mexico; the major destinations for Canadian malt include the United States, Japan, Mexico and South Korea. Total domestic use is expected to increase significantly, largely due to strong feed use. Carry-out stocks are estimated to rise sharply from the historic low of 2018-19.

Increased barley supplies in Canada and around the world have been weighing on barley prices. The average feed barley price at Lethbridge feedlots fell by 11% from the previous year.

For 2020-21, the area seeded to barley in Canada is marginally higher than the previous crop year and the highest since 2009-10, according to Statistics Canada’s (STC) seeded area survey. Barley area in Alberta, the leading barley grower, is the highest since 2013. In Saskatchewan, another main grower of barley, the area seeded is lower than last year but is still close to the record level set in 2010. Manitoba barley area rose from last year and is on par with the five year average.

Barley production is forecast to be slightly lower than last year and will be the second largest in the last ten years. Combined with high carry-in stocks, supply is forecast to increase from last year. Exports are forecast to remain unchanged. Domestic use is expected to fall due to lower feed use. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise as a result of higher supplies and lower use.

The average price of feed barley for 2020-21 is expected to drop by 10% from 2019-20 due to strong domestic and world supplies. In addition, large corn supplies in the US and around the world will constrain feed grain prices.

World barley supplies for 2020-21 are expected to fall but remain burdensome, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) largely due to a considerable drop in production in the world major exporting countries. World feed use is forecast to decrease in the world major importers, as users are expected to shift to cheaper corn. The demand for food, seed, and industrial use is forecast to increase marginally. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise only slightly.

Barley [a]: August 25, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 2,628 2,996 3,036
Area harvested (kha) 2,395 2,728 2,732
Yield (t/ha) 3.50 3.81 3.77
Production (kt) 8,380 10,383 10,300
Imports (kt) [b] 43 50 40
Total supply (kt) 9,667 11,295 11,740
Exports (kt) [c] 3,058 3,000 3,000
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 114 316 316
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 5,375 6,317 6,183
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 5,747 6,895 6,740
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 863 1,400 2,000
Average Price ($/t) [g] 260 232 195-225
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Barley (No.1 feed, cash, in-store Lethbridge).
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Corn

For 2019-20, Canadian corn imports are estimated to fall from the high level of the previous year, despite the increased importing pace in May, which resulted from attractive low US corn prices. Corn exports are forecast to be sharply lower than last year. Exports had been very low for the first eight months and then increased significantly in May and June, due to increased shipments to the EU countries. Total domestic use is expected to decrease slightly due to lower feed use and industrial use. Carry-stocks are expected to remain relatively unchanged from the previous year. The average price of corn at Chatham is expected to be similar to last year.

For 2020-21, the area seeded to corn is estimated by STC at 1.44 million hectares (Mha), down 4% from a year earlier and on par with the five-year average. Ontario corn area fell from last year but is above the five-year average and still in the high range. Quebec corn area slipped to the lowest level over the past two decades. In Manitoba, corn area dropped from last year and is slightly below the five-year average.

Production is forecast to increase from last year due to improved yield outlook. Imports are expected to decrease due to higher domestic production and carry-in stocks. Domestic use is projected to fall due to lower feed use, despite higher industrial use. Given the bumper domestic supplies and the steady increase in world demand, exports are expected to increase. Carry-out stocks are forecast to drop from the high level of 2019-20.

The average price of corn in Canada is expected to drop by 10%, in line with an expected lower corn prices in the US. However, the low value of the Canadian dollar will continue to support Canadian corn prices.

The supply of corn in the US is expected to be high in 2020-21 due to increased acres and record yield outlook, according to the USDA. The main categories of demand are forecast to recover. Ending stocks are expected to increase significantly. The US corn price for 2020-21 is projected at US$3.10/bu, versus US$3.60/bu for 2019-20.

At the world level, the USDA forecasts the 2020-21 world corn crop will be a record, mainly due to the expanded output in the world major exporters. World consumption, including feed use and industrial use, is expected to increase. Carry-out stocks are set to rise marginally, as the significant increase in stocks for the world major exporters, led by the US, is anticipated to be largely offset by the decline in stocks in the major importers, led by China. World trade volume is forecast to expand to a record level, owing to ample supplies and lower prices.

Corn [a]: August 25, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,468 1,496 1,441
Area harvested (kha) 1,431 1,451 1,403
Yield (t/ha) 9.70 9.24 9.80
Production (kt) 13,885 13,404 13,750
Imports (kt) [b] 2,582 2,100 1,600
Total supply (kt) 18,884 17,487 17,350
Exports (kt) [c] 1,617 850 1,000
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 5,786 5,300 5,400
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 9,481 9,322 9,034
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 15,284 14,637 14,450
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,983 2,000 1,900
Average Price ($/t) [g] 194 190-200 160-190
  • [a] Crop year is September-August.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Corn (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham).
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019, imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC but will be available from STC on October 4 2018. For 2019-2020[f], area, yield and production are from the STC survey but imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Oats

For 2019-20, Canadian oat exports, including grain and products, are anticipated to rise by 5%, with approximately 85% of the exports shipped to the US and the majority of the rest shipped to Mexico. The estimate for domestic use is pegged higher than the year-earlier level due to a sharp increase in demand for food production. Carry-out stocks are expected to increase but remain tight.

The oat futures price on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) increased by 8% from the prior year.

For 2020-21, the area seeded to oats in Canada is estimated at 1.55 Mha, the highest since 2008-09. Oat area in Alberta dropped from last year but it is still in the high range since 2011. Oat area in Saskatchewan and Manitoba increased from last year and are the highest since 2008.

Production is forecast to increase due to higher area harvested. Supplies are estimated to increase to a new record since 2008-09. Domestic use is expected to drop due to a reduced outlook for food uptake. Exports are projected to remain strong, despite expectations for higher supplies in the major exporting countries, as well as in the US. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise to a seven-year high.

The CBOT oat futures price for 2020-21 is expected to drop from last year due to ample supplies in Canada, the US and around the world.

World oat output and carry-out stocks for 2020-21 are forecast to increase; most of the increases are located in the major oat exporting countries, notably in Australia. World consumption is forecast to increase as well. World trade is expected to be more active. Exports from the EU is expected to decline significantly while they are anticipated to increase sharply for Australia and Russia. More oats is expected to ship to the US.

Oats [a]: August 25, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,235 1,459 1,554
Area harvested (kha) 1,005 1,171 1,229
Yield (t/ha) 3.42 3.62 3.55
Production (kt) 3,436 4,237 4,360
Imports (kt) [b] 11 10 10
Total supply (kt) 4,225 4,644 4,970
Exports (kt) [c] 2,475 2,600 2,600
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 182 270 190
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 1,049 1,044 1,063
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 1,353 1,444 1,370
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 397 600 1,000
Average Price ($/t) [g] 254 274 220-250
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Oats (US No.2 Heavy, Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) nearby futures)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Rye

For 2019-20, Canadian rye exports are expected to increase with more than 99% of the exports shipped to the US, the world leading importer of rye. Domestic use, including the demand for food and feed, is lower than last year according to the current domestic disappearance pace. Carry-out stocks are expected to rebound from last year's low. The price of rye at Saskatchewan for the crop year averaged $210/t, down 11% from last year’s historic high.

For 2020-21, the area seeded to winter rye in Canada increased by 35% from 2019-20. Production is forecast to increase to 445 thousand tonnes (Kt), the highest in three decades. Supply is expected to increase to 506 Kt, a record level since 2006. Domestic use, exports and carry-out stocks are projected to rise due to available bumper supplies. The rye price is expected to fall from 2019-20 due to higher supplies in Canada and around the world.

World rye output and carry-out stocks are forecast to increase and most of the increases are located in the major rye exporting countries, including Canada, the EU countries, Russia and Ukraine. World consumption is forecast to increase as well. World trade is expected to decrease. Exports from the EU are expected to decline significantly but exports are anticipated to increase sharply for Russia and Ukraine. Less rye is expected to be shipped to the US.

Rye [a]: August 25, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 136 175 237
Area harvested (kha) 79 103 141
Yield (t/ha) 2.99 3.25 3.14
Production (kt) 236 333 445
Imports (kt) [b] 2 2 2
Total supply (kt) 363 384 506
Exports (kt) [c] 146 168 170
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 19 15 39
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 133 120 162
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 167 156 216
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 49 60 120
Average Price ($/t) [g] 236 210 160-190
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Rye (No.1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada
Mixed Grains [a]: August 25, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 144 145 166
Area harvested (kha) 69 68 68
Yield (t/ha) 2.94 2.84 2.73
Production (kt) 203 192 187
Imports (kt) [b] 0 0 0
Total supply (kt) 203 192 187
Exports (kt) [c] 0 0 0
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 0 0 0
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 203 192 187
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 203 192 187
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 0 0 0
  • [a] August-July crop year
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Total Coarse Grains: August 25, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area Seeded 5,610 6,271 6,433
Area harvested (kha) 4,979 5,520 5,574
Yield (t/ha) 5.25 5.17 5.21
Production (kt) 26,140 28,549 29,042
Imports (kt) [b] 2,638 2,162 1,652
Total supply (kt) 33,342 34,002 34,753
Exports (kt) [c] 7,295 6,618 6,770
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 6,102 5,901 5,945
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 16,242 16,995 16,629
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 22,755 23,324 22,963
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 3,292 4,060 5,020
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Oilseeds

Canola

For 2019-20, total usage of canola is preliminarily estimated at a record 20.8 Mt based on an estimated crush of 10.0 Mt and exports of 10.1 Mt. After a slow start to the crop year, usage accelerated during the 2nd half of the crop year on strong world demand for vegetable oils and relaxed constraints on rail movement of grains due to the drop off in shipments of non-agricultural commodities. These estimates will be updated as final end-of-year data becomes available.

Carry-out stocks are estimated at 1.8 Mt, down 2.0 Mt from 2018-19 with 1.2 Mt located in commercial position and 0.6 Mt on-farm. The stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 9 percent versus 20 percent for 2018- 19 and the modern day record of 23 percent set in 2004-05.The simple average, crop year price for canola price is $484/t versus $497/t last year.

For 2020-21, seeded area in Canada is estimated by Statistics Canada to have fallen marginally to 8.4 million hectares (Mha), as farmers shifted into wheat and coarse grains away from oilseeds. AAFC forecasts a harvested area of 8.3 Mha for canola, assuming a normal rate of crop abandonment. Yields are projected at 2.27 tonnes per hectare (t/ha), up marginally from 2019-20, based on 5-year average yields. The yield estimates are supported by generally good growing conditions across the key growing regions although the maturing crop was stressed by hot and dry weather, leading to some premature ripening.

Canola production is forecast to rise slightly to 18.9 Mt, consistent with alternate unofficial satellite- imaging and crop-survey forecasts, which estimate output ranging from 18.9 Mt to 20.2 Mt. Total supplies are forecast to fall to 20.8 Mt on the sharp decline in carry-in stocks and an expected slight drop in imports.

Disposition of canola is expected to fall marginally as tighter domestic supplies constrain exports and domestic crush. Exports are forecast to fall to 9.5 Mt with world demand expected to remain strong based on the current hot and dry weather affecting key growing areas across the European Union. Domestic crush is forecast to fall to 9.3 Mt due to tighter domestic seed supplies and competition from large world soybean oil and palm oil supplies. Carry-out stocks are forecast to tighten slightly to 1.7 Mt, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 9% supporting a modest rise in canola prices to $490-530/t.

Canola [a]: August 25, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 9,232 8,481 8,409
Area harvested (kha) 9,120 8,319 8,323
Yield (t/ha) 2.23 2.24 2.27
Production (kt) 20,343 18,649 18,875
Imports (kt) [b] 146 150 100
Total supply (kt) 22,995 22,630 20,800
Exports (kt) [c] 9,202 10,124 9,500
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 9,295 10,000 9,250
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 605 630 324
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 9,962 10,681 9,625
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 3,831 1,825 1,675
Average Price ($/t) [g] 497 484 490-530
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Canola (No.1 Canada, cash, Track Vancouver)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Flaxseed

For 2019-20, exports are preliminarily estimated at 0.35 Mt on stable world demand and tighter domestic supplies, while total domestic use rises to 0.14 Mt on significantly higher feed, waste and dockage following last fall’s challenging harvest. Carry-out stocks are forecast up marginally to 0.07 Mt while flaxseed prices rise to $518/t, versus $496/t in 2018-19.

For 2020-21, farmers seeded 0.37 Mha to flaxseed, down slightly from last year despite higher prices. Production is forecast to rise by 5% to 0.51 Mt, assuming a normal abandonment and five-year average historical yields. Supplies are forecast to increase by 6% to 0.59 Mt on higher output and carry-in stocks.

Exports are forecast up by 29% from 2019-20, to 0.45 Mt, on steady to stronger world consumption, while total domestic use falls sharply to 0.04 Mt, on lower feed, waste and dockage. Carry-out stocks are forecast at 0.10 Mt while prices range from $510-550/t for 2020-21.

Flaxseed (excluding solin) [a]: August 25, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 347 379 369
Area harvested (kha) 342 339 344
Yield (t/ha) 1.44 1.43 1.49
Production (kt) 492 486 512
Imports (kt) [b] 9 15 10
Total supply (kt) 628 561 592
Exports (kt) [c] 468 350 450
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 0 0 0
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 83 125 22
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 100 141 42
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 60 70 100
Average Price ($/t) [g] 496 518 510-550
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Flaxseed (No.1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • n/a: not available
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Soybeans

For 2019-20, Canadian exports are estimated at 4.3Mt, versus 5.6 Mt last year, on tighter domestic supplies and competition from large US and South American supplies. Canadian soybean crush is estimated down by 13%, to 1.8 Mt. Carry-out stocks are estimated at 0.4 Mt. Soybean prices are forecast to rise slightly to $420/t versus $406/t for 2018-19.

The factors to watch are:

  1. Canadian weather forecasts,
  2. North American harvest conditions,
  3. US soybean export sales,
  4. state of US-China trade negotiations.

For 2020-21, Canadian soybean area is estimated down 0.3 Mha, to 2.1 Mha, based on producer surveys. Assuming normal abandonment and normal yields, production is forecast at 5.9 Mt, vs 6.0 Mt in 2019-20 and 7.4 Mt in 2018-19. Total supply is forecast to decrease to 6.8 Mt, as sharply lower carry-in stocks compound the decline in production and imports. Exports are forecast at 4.1 Mt and are expected to head to a variety of countries. Domestic processing is forecast up slightly at 1.9 Mt as crushers swing back to a normal processing pace for soybeans.

Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease slightly to 0.36 Mt versus 0.40 Mt for 2019-20 and 0.70 Mt in 2018-19. Soybean prices are forecast to decline to $390-430/t under pressure from lower US prices, with losses muted by the low value of the Canadian dollar, with C$1.00 worth about US$0.75.

The USDA’s soybean production estimate of 4.4 billion bushels for 2020-21, based on a record yield estimate of 53.3 bu/ac, is supported by current crop ratings at around 74% good-to-excellent versus 54% for this time last year. The US soybean harvest normally gets underway in late September and wraps up in late November or early December. Current growing conditions are near normal across the soybean belt with some regions experiencing moderate shortages or surpluses of soil moisture.

Cumulative growing season temperatures also fluctuate on either side of normal across the Plains and Midwest regions of the US. The greatest threat currently facing the American soybean crop is the possibility of a wet and delayed harvest, given current weather conditions, and barring an abrupt shift into cold and wet weather, the outlook is for a normal harvest with few delays and minimal quality and yield losses for the soybean crop.

Soybeans [a] : August 25, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 2,558 2,313 2,052
Area harvested (kha) 2,540 2,271 2,049
Yield (t/ha) 2.92 2.66 2.90
Production (kt) 7,417 6,045 5,940
Imports (kt) [b] 1,131 500 500
Total supply (kt) 9,199 7,245 6,840
Exports (kt) [c] 5,640 4,300 4,100
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 2,058 1,800 1,900
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 563 495 275
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 2,859 2,545 2,375
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 700 400 365
Average Price ($/t) [g] 406 415-425 390-430
  • [a] Crop year is September-August.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Soybeans (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019, imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC but will be available from STC on October 4 2018. For 2019-2020[f], area, yield and production are from the STC survey but imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada
Total Oilseeds : August 25, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 12,137 11,172 10,829
Area harvested (kha) 12,001 10,929 10,716
Yield (t/ha) 2.35 2.30 2.36
Production (kt) 28,252 25,180 25,327
Imports (kt) [b] 1,286 665 610
Total supply (kt) 32,822 30,436 28,232
Exports (kt) [c] 15,310 14,774 14,050
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 11,354 11,800 11,150
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 1,252 1,250 622
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 12,921 13,367 12,043
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 4,591 2,295 2,140
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada
Total Grains and Oilseeds : August 25, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 27,820 27,568 27,456
Area harvested (kha) 26,861 26,105 26,189
Yield (t/ha) 3.22 3.30 3.41
Production (kt) 86,593 86,077 89,269
Imports (kt) [b] 4,043 3,097 2,412
Total supply (kt) 105,215 103,096 103,336
Exports (kt) [c] 46,881 45,392 45,120
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 44,412 46,049 44,356
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 13,922 11,655 13,860
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Pulses and special crops

Dry peas

For 2019-20, exports are estimated at 3.7 million tonnes (Mt), 13% higher than the 2018-19 level, with record exports to China and Bangladesh. This is offset by lower domestic use but is expected to result in a decrease in carry-out stocks. For yellow peas, the crop year average price were marginally higher than 2018-19. Green and feed pea prices were lower than the previous year. With lower carry-out stocks, the average dry pea price was 2% lower than 2018-19.

For 2020-21, Canadian dry pea production in Canada is forecast to rise slightly from 2019-20, to 4.25 Mt. This is largely due to an expected similar harvested area. Saskatchewan is estimated to account for 55% of the dry pea production, with 39% in Alberta, and the remainder across Canada. Supply is forecast to fall marginally to below 4.6 Mt due to lower carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to fall to 3.4 Mt, with China, Bangladesh and the US expected to be Canada’s top markets. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase. The average price is expected to be similar to 2019-20.

In the US, area seeded to dry peas for 2020-21 is forecast by USDA to fall by 14% from 2019-20, to 0.95 million acres. This is largely due to an expected fall in area in North Dakota and Montana. Assuming a return to normal yields and abandonment, US dry pea production is forecast by AAFC to fall to below 0.8 Mt. The US has been successful in exporting small amounts of dry peas to markets in Canada and the Philippines. It is expected the US will continue to try keep its share in these markets in 2020-21.

Dry Peas [a]: August 25, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,463 1,753 1,722
Area harvested (kha) 1,431 1,711 1,690
Yield (t/ha) 2.50 2.48 2.51
Production (kt) 3,581 4,237 4,250
Imports (kt) [b] 62 75 60
Total supply (kt) 4,291 4,624 4,560
Exports (b) 3,270 3,700 3,400
Total Domestic Use (c) 708 674 710
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 312 250 450
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 8 6 11
Average Price (d) 270 265 250-280
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2019-2020[f] and the years before 2019-2020[f], area, yield and production are from STC. For the years before 2019-2020[f], imports, exports, seed requirements and carry-out stocks are from STC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Lentils

For 2019-20, lentil exports rose to a record 2.65 Mt, up 30% from the previous year. Exports of red lentils were 1.8 Mt while 0.85 Mt were green lentils. The main markets were India, the United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh and Turkey. Total domestic use was lower than 2018-19 at 0.2 Mt. Carry-out stocks decreased to below 0.1 Mt. The average Canadian lentil price was 25% higher than it was for 2018-19. No.1 large green lentil prices maintained an average crop year premium of $95/t over No.1 red lentil prices.

For 2020-21, lentil production is forecast to rise by 14% to 2.5 Mt, the fourth largest Canadian lentil crop on record. Larger seeded area and higher yields are expected. Total green lentil area and red lentil area increased. Saskatchewan is expected to account for 90% of the lentil production, with the remainder in Alberta and Manitoba. Supply, however, is forecast to decrease by 12% due to lower carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to fall to 2.1 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise compared to the previous year. The average price is forecast to rise by 6% from 2019-20 with a return to more average grade distribution.

In the US, the area seeded to lentils for 2020-21 is forecast by the USDA to rise marginally to nearly 0.5 million acres (mln ac), due to higher area seeded in North Dakota. Assuming a return to average yields and abandonment, 2020-21 US lentil production is therefore forecast by AAFC at below 0.25 Mt, down 4% from last year. The main US export markets for lentils are expected to continue to be Canada, India, China, Mexico and the EU.

Lentils [a]: August 25, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,525 1,530 1,713
Area harvested (kha) 1,499 1,489 1,685
Yield (t/ha) 1.40 1.46 1.47
Production (kt) 2,092 2,167 2,475
Imports (kt) [b] 51 85 50
Total supply (kt) 3,016 2,883 2,550
Exports (b) 2,033 2,650 2,100
Total Domestic Use (c) 352 208 350
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 631 25 100
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 26 1 4
Average Price (d) 390 485 500-530
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2019-2020[f] and the years before 2019-2020[f], area, yield and production are from STC. For the years before 2019-2020[f], imports, exports, seed requirements and carry-out stocks are from STC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Dry beans

For 2019-20, dry bean exports were higher than 2018-19 with the higher Canadian supply and stronger world prices. The US and the EU remained the main markets for Canadian dry beans, with smaller volumes exported to Japan and Mexico. A below average quality dry bean crop in the US and Canada provided the majority of the support for Canadian dry bean prices in 2019-20.

For 2020-21, Canadian production is forecast to increase to nearly 0.35 Mt, as lower seeded area combines with higher yields. By province, Ontario is expected to account for 37% of the dry bean production, Manitoba 43%, Alberta 14%, with the remainder in Saskatchewan, Quebec and the Maritimes. Supply is expected to rise despite lower carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be lower than the previous year. Canada is expected to maintain its market share in the US, Europe and Japan. As a result, carry-out stocks are expected to rise. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to be 18% lower due to larger expected supply in North America.

In the US, area seeded to dry beans is forecast by the USDA to rise by 26% to 1.63 million acres, largely due to increased area seeded in North Dakota. Total US dry bean production for 2020-21 (excluding chickpeas) is forecast by AAFC at 1.5 Mt, up 58% from 2019-20.

Dry Beans [a]: August 25, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 143 160 156
Area harvested (kha) 137 150 151
Yield (t/ha) 2.49 2.11 2.28
Production (kt) 341 317 345
Imports (kt) [b] 98 78 85
Total supply (kt) 464 474 505
Exports (b) 348 365 345
Total Domestic Use (c) 37 34 40
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 80 75 120
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 21 19 31
Average Price (d) 815 985 790-820
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Chickpeas

For 2019-20, Canadian chickpea exports have fallen from the previous year to 105 thousand tonnes (Kt). This was largely due to lower exports to Pakistan. With the higher supply and decreased exports, carry-out stocks are expected to rise significantly. The average price was 2% higher than the previous year despite below average quality.

For 2020-21, production is forecast to fall to 200 Kt, due to lower area but higher yields. By province, Saskatchewan is expected to account for the majority of the chickpea production, with the remainder in Alberta. Supply is forecast to be higher than last year. Exports are forecast to be higher than in 2019-20 and carry-out stocks are expected to fall. The average price is forecast to be 4% lower than in 2019-20.

US chickpea area for 2020-2021 is forecast by the USDA at 0.3 million acres, down 33% from the previous year. Assuming normal yields and abandonment, 2020-21 US chickpea production is therefore forecast by AAFC at 0.2 Mt, down nearly 30% from last year.

Chickpeas [a]: August 25, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 179 159 121
Area harvested (kha) 176 156 118
Yield (t/ha) 1.77 1.61 1.69
Production (kt) 311 252 200
Imports (kt) [b] 51 45 50
Total supply (kt) 376 397 410
Exports (b) 147 105 125
Total Domestic Use (c) 129 132 135
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 100 160 150
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 36 68 58
Average Price (d) 480 490 455-485
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Mustard seed

For 2019-20, Canadian mustard seed exports fell marginally to 115 Kt from the previous year due to lower demand from the US. Carry-out stocks fell due to the decreased supply. Prices rose by 25% from the previous year for yellow mustard seed types. This was largely due to price support from the lower Canadian and US domestic yellow mustard seed stocks. Prices for the brown and oriental types were marginally lower than the previous year. As a result, the average price across all types was up marginally from 2018-19.

For 2020-21, production is estimated at 90 Kt, 33% lower than last year due to a large fall in seeded area, despite expectations for higher yields. Supply is expected to decrease by 29%, to 153 Kt, as lower carry-in stocks combine with the fall in output. Exports are expected to be unchanged at 115 Kt, with the US and the EU being the main markets for Canadian mustard seed. As a result, carry-out stocks are forecast to fall. The average price is forecast to be 12% lower than 2019-20 with a range of $680-710/t.

Mustard Seed [a]: August 25, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 204 161 104
Area harvested (kha) 197 155 100
Yield (t/ha) 0.88 0.87 0.90
Production (kt) 174 135 90
Imports (kt) [b] 8 7 8
Total supply (kt) 235 214 153
Exports (b) 121 115 115
Total Domestic Use (c) 42 44 33
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 73 55 5
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 45 35 3
Average Price (d) 690 700 680-710
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020[f] which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Canary seed

For 2019-20, exports were higher at 158 Kt, up from the previous year. The average producer price was 25% higher from a year earlier.

For 2020-21, production is estimated at 155 Kt, up 5% from last year, due to higher area. Supplies are forecast to decrease due to lower carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to fall from 2019-20 due to the fall in supply, with the EU and Mexico continuing to be the main markets, followed by the US and Brazil. The average price is forecast to be 12% lower than in 2019-20.

Canary Seed [a]: August 25, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 109 104 109
Area harvested (kha) 109 99 107
Yield (t/ha) 1.45 1.49 1.45
Production (kt) 158 148 155
Imports (kt) [b] 0 0 0
Total supply (kt) 174 158 155
Exports (b) 156 158 150
Total Domestic Use (c) 7 0 5
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 11 0 0
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 7 0 0
Average Price (d) 505 630 540-570
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020[f] which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Sunflower seed

For 2019-20, sunflower seed exports increased to 36 Kt due to increased demand from the US. Despite this, carry-out stocks were similar to the previous year. The total average Canadian price for sunflower seed increased by 6% from the previous year due to higher oilseed prices.

For 2020-21, production is estimated at 59 Kt, down 6% from last year, because area seeded decreased from 2019-20, to 28 thousand hectares. Yields are expected to be higher than last year. Exports are forecast to fall to 30 Kt due to expectations for decreased US demand. The US remains Canada’s main export market for sunflower seed, with small amounts moving to the Middle East and South America. Carry-out stocks are forecast to remain unchanged at 95 Kt. Sunflower seed prices are forecast to fall by 4% to $575-605/t, due to lower prices for oil and confectionery types.

US sunflower seed area is forecast by the USDA at 1.54 million acres, up 14% from 2019-20, due to higher area in North and South Dakota. The total US area seeded to oil type varieties is expected to rise to nearly 1.4 million acres and the area seeded to confectionery type varieties is forecast to rise to nearly 0.2 million acres. Assuming normal yields and abandonment, 2020-21 US sunflower seed production is forecast by AAFC to be rise sharply to nearly 1.1 Mt.

For 2020-21, the global supply of sunflower seed is estimated by the USDA at a record 61.7 Mt, marginally higher than last year. This is due to higher expected production in Ukraine. World exports are expected to fall by 9% to 3.4 Mt and domestic use is expected to rise marginally to a record 56 Mt. As a result, world carry-out stocks are expected to rise 17% to 2.6 Mt. This is expected to pressure Canadian oil type sunflower seed prices in 2020-21.

Sunflower Seed [a]: August 25, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 29 31 28
Area harvested (kha) 27 29 27
Yield (t/ha) 2.13 2.18 2.19
Production (kt) 57 63 59
Imports (kt) [b] 24 26 24
Total supply (kt) 179 185 178
Exports (b) 26 36 30
Total Domestic Use (c) 56 54 53
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 96 95 95
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 116 106 114
Average Price (d) 585 620 575-605
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020[f] which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Total Pulses and Special Crops [a]: August 25, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 3,652 3,897 3,953
Area harvested (kha) 3,576 3,788 3,878
Yield (t/ha) 1.88 1.93 1.95
Production (kt) 6,714 7,317 7,574
Imports (kt) [b] 293 316 277
Total supply (kt) 8,734 8,935 8,511
Exports (b) 6,101 7,129 6,265
Total Domestic Use (c) 1,331 1,146 1,326
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,302 660 920
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC and STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Historical data

Historical principal field crops data are available in spreadsheet format and can be obtained by emailing aafc.bulletin.aac@canada.ca. Please specify crops, crop years, and preferred file format in your request.

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