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Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops, 2020-06-23

Canada: Outlook for Field Crops (PDF version, 383 KB)

Historical Data

This report is an update of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's (AAFC) May outlook report for the current 2019-20 crop year and the up-coming 2020-21 crop year.

For 2019-20, total exports of all field crops are expected to decrease slightly from the previous crop year to about 50 million tonnes (Mt) of which 87 percent is grains and oilseeds (G&O) and 13 percent is pulses and special crops (P&SC). From a disposition point of view, exports, domestic use and carry-out stocks are expected to represent about 45, 42 and 13 percent of total supply, respectively. Total carry-out stocks are expected to decrease by 7 percent to 14.1 Mt, which is near the ten-year average. For G&O, carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease slightly to 13.1 million tonnes (Mt) but carry-out stocks for P&SC are forecast to decrease significantly to less than one million tonnes. In general, abundant global supplies of grains have put downward pressure on grain prices, however, the weak Canadian dollar continues to provide strong support for prices in Canada. While grain shipments continue to move very well, with no reported interruptions at inland elevators or port terminals, COVID-19 and trade issues with China are expected to continue to create uncertainty for the Canadian markets.

For 2020-21, based on Statistics Canada's May 7 seeding intentions report, the areas seeded to wheat, corn and oats in 2020 are expected to increase, compared with 2019, but decrease for canola, soybeans, barley, dry peas and lentils. Seeding for 2020-21 crop year was complete in early June across all the provinces at a near normal pace. The total area seeded to field crops in Canada is expected to be marginally lower than it was in 2019-20, however, average yields are forecast to increase compared to 2019-20 which was reduced by excessive moisture conditions in some areas. Total crop production is forecast to increase by  2 percent to 95.7 Mt as the increase in the production of G&O is expected to more-than offset the modest decline in the production of P&SC. Due to higher total supply, increased exports and lower domestic use, carry-out stocks are forecast to increase slightly. In general, abundant global supplies and factors related to COVID-19 are expected to pressure world grain prices. However, prices in Canada will continue to be supported by the low value of the Canadian dollar. AAFC's report for July will incorporate Statistics Canada's actual seeded area estimates, which are to be published June 30.

Total Grains and Oilseeds: June 23, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 27,820 27,568 27,569
Area harvested (kha) 26,861 26,094 26,231
Yield (t/ha) 3.22 3.30 3.37
Production (kt) 86,584 86,077 88,437
Imports (kt) 4,043 2,397 2,082
Total supply (kt) 105,206 102,396 103,638
Exports (kt) 46,881 43,258 45,120
Total Domestic Use (kt) 44,403 46,017 43,978
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 13,922 13,120 14,540
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Total Pulses and Special Crops: June 23, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 3,652 3,897 3,780
Area harvested (kha) 3,576 3,788 3,707
Yield (t/ha) 1.88 1.93 1.96
Production (kt) 6,714 7,317 7,265
Imports (kt) 293 325 277
Total supply (kt) 8,734 8,944 8,527
Exports (kt) 6,101 6,632 6,165
Total Domestic Use (kt) 1,331 1,327 1,392
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,302 985 970
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
All Principal Field Crops: June 23, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 31,472 31,465 31,349
Area harvested (kha) 30,437 29,882 29,938
Yield (t/ha) 3.07 3.13 3.20
Production (kt) 93,298 93,394 95,702
Imports (kt) 4,336 2,722 2,359
Total supply (kt) 113,940 111,339 112,165
Exports (kt) 52,982 49,890 51,285
Total Domestic Use (kt) 45,734 47,344 45,370
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 15,224 14,105 15,510
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat

Durum

For 2019-20, Canadian durum production decreased by 13% from 2018-19 to 4.98 million tonnes (Mt). Total supply decreased by 5%, as the lower production was partly offset by higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to increase by 10% to 5 Mt due to stronger demand resulting from a decrease in world production. The exports forecast was raised by 0.1 Mt from the May report based on the increased pace of exports. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 50% from 2018-19 to 0.9 Mt, 37% lower than the past five-year average of 1.43 Mt.

World durum production fell by 3.4 Mt from 2018-19 to 33.6 Mt, while supply decreased by 2.7 Mt to 43.3 Mt, according to the International Grains Council (IGC). Use is expected to fall by 0.7 Mt to 35.6 Mt. Carry out stocks are forecast to fall by 2 Mt to 7.7 Mt. US durum production fell by 0.66 Mt from 2018-19 to 1.46 Mt, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The average Canadian crop year producer price for durum is forecast to rise from 2018-19 due to lower world, Canadian and US supply.

For 2020-21, the area seeded to durum in Canada is expected to increase by 7% from 2019-20, according to Statistics Canada's (STC) seeding intentions survey. Production is forecast to rise by 11% to 5.5 Mt as the increase in seeded area is compounded by higher trend yields and a return to normal abandonment rate. Supply is projected to fall by 5% as the higher production is more than offset by lower carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to fall by 2% to 4.9 Mt due to the limited supply. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 11% to 0.8 Mt.

World durum production is forecast to increase by 0.5 Mt from 2019-20 to 34.1 Mt, according to IGC. Supply is expected to fall by 1.5 Mt to 41.8 Mt because of lower carry-in stocks. Use is expected to fall by 0.4 Mt to 35.2 Mt because of lower feed use, while carry-out stocks fall by 1.2 Mt to 6.5 Mt, the lowest since 2007-08. US durum production is forecast to rise by 0.09 Mt to 1.55 Mt.

The average Canadian crop year producer price for durum is forecast to be the same as for 2019-20.

Durum [a]: June 23, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 2,503 1,980 2,116
Area harvested (kha) 2,456 1,902 2,074
Yield (t/ha) 2.34 2.62 2.65
Production (kt) 5,745 4,977 5,500
Imports (kt) [b] 24 100 100
Total supply (kt) 7,245 6,869 6,500
Exports (kt) [c] 4,526 5,000 4,900
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 204 210 210
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 532 555 353
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 927 969 800
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,792 900 800
Average Price ($/t) [g] 235 265-275 255-285
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Crop year average prices: Wheat (No.1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No.1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices. Barley (No. 1 feed, cash, I/S Lethbridge), Corn (No.2 CE, cash, I/S Chatham), Oats (US No. 2 Heavy, CBOT nearby futures); Rye (No. 1 CW, cash, I/S Saskatoon); Canola (No. 1 Canada, cash, Track Vancouver); Flaxseed (No. 1 CW, cash, I/S Saskatoon); Soybeans (No. 2 CE, cash, I/S Chatham)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat (excluding durum)

For 2019-20, Canadian wheat production rose by 3.5% from 2018-19 to 27.4 Mt. Production by class of wheat, with 2018-19 production in brackets, is estimated at: winter wheat (hard red, soft red and soft white) 1.7 Mt (2.51 Mt); Canada Western Red Spring (CWRS), premium quality hard wheat, 22.17 Mt (20.03 Mt); Canada Prairie Spring (CPS) 1.49 Mt (1.59 Mt), Canada Northern Hard Red Spring (CNHR) 0.74 Mt (1.06 Mt); soft white spring (CWSWS) 0.54 Mt (0.48 Mt), other western spring wheat 0.27 Mt (0.39 Mt), eastern spring wheat, mainly hard red spring (CERS), 0.46 Mt (0.39 Mt).

Total supply fell marginally, as lower carry-in stocks more-than offset the increase in production. Exports are forecast to fall by 8% to 18.2 Mt, due to more competition from other exporters because of higher world production. The exports forecast was raised by 0.2 Mt from the May report based on the increased pace of exports. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by 18% to 5 Mt, but only 1% higher than the past five-year average of 4.96 Mt.

World all wheat (including durum) production increased by 34 Mt to 764 Mt, while the supply increased by 29 Mt to 1,044 Mt, according to USDA. Total use is expected to increase by 13 Mt to 748 Mt. World all wheat carry-out stocks are forecast to rise by 16 Mt to 296 Mt or, if stocks in China are not included, stocks would increase by 5 Mt to 145 Mt. Chinese wheat stocks are seldom exported.

US all wheat production rose by 1 Mt from 2018-19 to 52.3 Mt, according to USDA. Supply is 0.4 Mt lower at 84.5 Mt. Domestic use is forecast to increase by 1.5 Mt, while exports rise by 0.8 Mt. Carry out stocks are forecast to decrease by 2.6 Mt to 26.8 Mt.

Average Canadian producer prices for wheat for the crop year are forecast to fall from 2018-19 because of the higher world supply.

For 2020-21, Canadian area seeded to wheat is expected to increase by 1% from 2019-20, with a 17% increase in the winter wheat area and a marginal decrease for spring wheat area, based on the STC seeding intentions survey. Production is projected to rise by 4% to 28.4 Mt. The winter wheat production is projected to increase by 65% to 2.8 Mt due to higher seeded area and a return to normal abandonment rate. Spring wheat production is expected to fall marginally to 25.6 Mt.

Supply is forecast to increase by 5% because of higher production and carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to rise by 5%. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by 20% to 6 Mt.

World all wheat production is forecast to rise by 9 Mt from 2019-20 to 773 Mt while supply increases by 25 Mt to 1,069 Mt due to higher carry-in stocks, according to USDA. Total use is expected to rise by 5 Mt to 753 Mt, as higher food use is partly offset by lower feed use. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise by 20 Mt to 316 Mt. Excluding China, carry-out stocks are projected to rise by 9 Mt to 154 Mt.

US all wheat production is forecast to fall by 0.2 Mt from 2019-20 to 51.1 Mt, according to USDA. Imports are forecast to increase by 0.9 Mt. Supply of all wheat is projected to fall by 2.8 Mt to 81.7 Mt. Exports are forecast to fall by 0.4 Mt, while domestic use falls by 0.9 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 1.6 Mt to 25.2 Mt.

Average Canadian producer prices for wheat for the crop year are forecast to rise from 2019-20 because of the forecast for a weaker Canadian dollar for 2020-21 as compared to 2019-20.

Wheat Except Durum [a]: June 23, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 7,570 8,145 8,233
Area harvested (kha) 7,425 7,754 7,920
Yield 3.56 3.53 3.59
Production (kt) 26,456 27,371 28,400
Imports (b) 95 170 120
Total supply (kt) 31,807 31,788 33,520
Exports (kt) [c] 19,750 18,200 19,200
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 3,294 3,360 3,390
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 3,681 4,393 4,093
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 7,809 8,588 8,320
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 4,247 5,000 6,000
Average Price ($/t) [g] 245 220-230 215-245
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Crop year average prices: Wheat (No.1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No.1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices and are not comparable to CWB pool returns for previous years.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
All Wheat [a]: June 23, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 10,073 10,125 10,349
Area harvested (kha) 9,881 9,656 9,994
Yield (t/ha) 3.26 3.35 3.39
Production (kt) 32,201 32,348 33,900
Imports (kt) [b] 119 270 220
Total supply (kt) 39,052 38,658 40,020
Exports (kt) [c] 24,276 23,200 24,100
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 3,498 3,570 3,600
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 4,213 4,948 4,446
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 8,736 9,558 9,120
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 6,040 5,900 6,800
  • [a] Crop year is August-July
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Coarse grains

Barley

For 2019-20, the total supply of barley increased by 17% from 2018-19 due to higher production despite historically low carry-in stocks. Total domestic use is expected to increase by 20%, largely due to strong feed use. Exports for the fist nine months of the crop year fell by 22% and 3% for barley grains and products, respectively. Total exports are expected to decrease based on the export pace. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise sharply from last year largely due to the significant increase in supply.

Increased barley supplies in Canada and around the world have weighed on barley prices. For the crop-year to-date, barley prices in the Prairie Provinces declined from a year ago but remained strong. For the entire crop year, the feed barley price at Lethbridge feedlots is expected to be 12% lower than last year.

Since 2014-15, China has been the largest export market for Canadian barley, taking more than half of Canadian barley grain exports. For 2019-20 to April, exports to China decreased by 18% particularly due to the declined exports to this country in February and March and nil in April. The US is the second largest market for Canadian barley. Exports to the US increased by 19% and 1% for barley grain and products, respectively. Japan is another important importer for Canadian barley. Exports of barley grain to Japan increased by 17% but decreased by 1% for barley malt.

World barley production and supply in 2019-20 have reached their highest level in the past two decades, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Barley production increased in the major exporting countries, including the EU, Russia, Ukraine and Australia. World trade volume is expected to be similar to last year. Total consumption and carry-out stocks are expected to be higher than the previous year

For 2020-21, the area seeded to barley in Canada is expected to decrease by 2%. Production is forecast to decrease by 8% from last year, using the five-year (2015-16 to 2019-20) averages for yield and area harvested. However, with large carry-in stocks, supplies are expected to be marginally higher than in 2019-20, which is anticipated to encourage exports. Domestic use are expected to fall due to lower feed use. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise due to large supplies relative to demand.

The average price of feed barley for 2020-21 is expected to drop from 2019-20 due to increased domestic supplies and expected decline in demand. In addition, large corn supplies around the world will restrict feed grain prices.

World barley production for 2020-21 is expected to fall slightly but total supplies are expected to rise due to higher carry-in stocks. World trade volume is expected to be slightly lower than the previous year as large supplies of relatively cheaper corn are anticipated to replace some feed barley. Total consumption is expected to rise but will be limited by large corn supplies around the world. Carry-out stocks are expected to increase.

Barley [a]: June 23, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 2,628 2,996 2,934
Area harvested (kha) 2,395 2,728 2,606
Yield (t/ha) 3.50 3.81 3.68
Production (kt) 8,380 10,383 9,600
Imports (kt) [b] 43 50 40
Total supply (kt) 9,667 11,295 11,340
Exports (kt) [c] 3,058 2,700 2,800
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 104 316 316
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 5,385 6,326 6,083
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 5,747 6,895 6,640
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 863 1,700 1,900
Average Price ($/t) [g] 260 220-240 195-225
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Barley (No.1 feed, cash, in-store Lethbridge).
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Corn

For 2019-20, the total supply of corn in Canada decreased by 11% as a result of lower carry-in stocks, production and imports. More than 95%, of Canadian corn imports are from the US. Corn imports are expected to decrease by 42% throughout the crop year, mainly due to lower demand for industrial use and feed consumption, as well as the depreciation of the Canada/US exchange rate.

Total domestic use is expected to decrease due to reduced industrial use and feed use. Corn exports are expected to fall sharply to 350 thousand tonnes (Kt), as exports to the EU have been nil for the first eight months of crop year. As a result, carry-out stocks are anticipated to fall but only slightly.

The average price of corn for 2019-20 is expected to close to the level in last year due to lower US corn price being offset by the depreciated Canadian currency.

In the US, demand for corn for ethanol production has decreased significantly due to sharply lower consumption for fuel, as well as the major downturn in energy prices. A part of the decrease in industrial use has been offset by higher feed use.

The average on-farm price of corn for 2019-20 in the US is estimated by the USDA at US$3.60/bu, similar to the preceding year.

World corn production and supplies remained abundant for 2019-20, despite a slight decline from 2018-19, as shown in the world major exporters, including Brazil, Argentina, Russia and Ukraine. World demand for corn is expected to fall particularly due to lower industrial use, in spite of strong demand for feed use. This supply and demand situation is anticipated to pressure corn prices. Import is expected to rise from the world major importing countries while it is anticipated to fall from the EU.

For 2020-21, the area seeded to corn in Canada is forecast at 1.544 million hectares, a record high level. Production is forecast to increase by 10% due to higher yields and area harvested. Imports are expected to fall given expectations for historical high production for corn. Corn supply is projected to increase by 5%. Domestic use is projected to fall by 1% due to lower feed use, despite higher industrial use. Given the increase in domestic supply and the continuous increase in world demand, exports are expected to increase sharply. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise due to higher supply.

The average price of corn in Canada is expected to drop following forecasts for lower corn prices in the US for 2020-21. Canadian currency is expected to depreciate continuously in 2020-21 and therefore support Canadian corn prices.

The USDA projected corn acres in the US for 2020 at 97 million acres, up 8% from 89.7 million acres for 2019 and the highest since 2012. Combined with forecasts for higher area harvested and improved yields, US corn production will increase by 17%, and supplies will increase by 14%. Ending stocks are expected to increase by more than 50%, even with higher total use. The US corn price for 2020-21 is projected at US$3.20/bu, versus US$3.60/bu for 2019-20.

At the world level, the USDA forecasts the 2020-21 world corn crop will be the largest ever, and the output in the word major exporters continue to expand. World consumption, including feed use and industrial use, is tentatively seen a fresh peak. Carry-out stocks are set to rise to a three-season high, led by the US. World trade volume is forecast to expand to a record level, owing to ample supplies and lower prices.

Corn [a]: June 23, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,468 1,496 1,544
Area harvested (kha) 1,431 1,451 1,504
Yield (t/ha) 9.70 9.24 9.77
Production (kt) 13,885 13,404 14,700
Imports (kt) [b] 2,582 1,500 1,200
Total supply (kt) 18,884 16,887 17,800
Exports (kt) [c] 1,617 350 1,300
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 5,786 5,300 5,400
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 9,481 9,321 9,084
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 15,284 14,637 14,500
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,983 1,900 2,000
Average Price ($/t) [g] 194 185-205 165-195
  • [a] Crop year is September-August.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Corn (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham).
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019, imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC but will be available from STC on October 4 2018. For 2019-2020[f], area, yield and production are from the STC survey but imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Oats

For 2019-20, the total supply of oats in Canada increased by 10% due to increased production, despite sharply lower carry-in stocks. Domestic use is expected to increase by 7% largely due to strong demand for food production. Exports, including grain and products, are anticipated to rise by 5% based on the strong export sales from the first nine months of the crop year. Carry-out stocks are expected to increase significantly due to large supply.

For the entire crop year, the CBOT oat futures price is expected to increase by 6% from last year.

Oat supply in the US, the leading importer of Canadian oats, decreased marginally from last year as higher imports more-than offset lower production and carry-in stocks. Total use is forecast to increase by 5% due to strong food consumption and feed use. Carry-out stocks are projected to sharply fall by 24%. The US oat price for 2019-20 is projected to rise by 7% to US$2.85/bu.

World oat supply decreased due to lower supplies in the major exporting countries, including the EU, Australia and Russia. World consumption is projected to fall. Total carry-out stocks are anticipated to rise.

For 2020-21, the area seeded to oats in Canada is forecast to increase by about 6% to the highest level since 2009. Production is forecast to increase only by 1%, as higher area harvested is expected to be partly offset by lower yields; together with higher carry-in stocks, supply is projected to increase by 6%. Domestic use is expected to drop by 6% due to lower food use. Exports are projected to be slightly lower than the previous year due to expectations for bumper supplies in the major exporting countries, as well as in the US. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise due to large supply relative to demand.

The average price of oats for 2020-21 is expected to be lower than 2019-20 due to large supplies in Canada, the US and around the world, as well as forecasts for lower corn prices.

The area seeded to oats in the US is expected to increase to about 3 million acres, the highest since 2016. Total supply is forecast to increase due to higher production and imports. Demand for feed continues to rise. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by 45%. The US oat price for 2020-21 is projected at US$2.50/bu, versus US$2.85/bu for 2019-20.

World oat production and supply for 2020-21 are expected to grow due to higher production and supplies in the main exporting countries. Demand for food and feed use is anticipated to rise respectively. Carry-out stocks are projected to increase by 33% with more than half of the increase coming from the world major exporters.

Oats [a]: June 23, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,235 1,459 1,551
Area harvested (kha) 1,005 1,160 1,215
Yield (t/ha) 3.42 3.65 3.54
Production (kt) 3,436 4,237 4,300
Imports (kt) [b] 11 10 10
Total supply (kt) 4,225 4,644 4,910
Exports (kt) [c] 2,475 2,600 2,550
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 182 270 190
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 1,049 1,044 1,053
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 1,353 1,444 1,360
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 397 600 1,000
Average Price ($/t) [g] 254 260-280 220-250
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Oats (US No.2 Heavy, Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) nearby futures)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Rye

For 2019-20, the total supply of rye increased by only 6% from 2018-19, as most of the increase in production was offset by a significant drop in carry-in stocks. Domestic use is expected to rise due to higher feed use. Exports are forecast to increase by 8%. Carry-out stocks are expected to be the same as the level for last year.
The price of rye at Saskatchewan for the entire crop year is anticipated to decrease by 11% from 2018-19 to average $210/t.

The US has taken more than 99% of Canadian rye exports for this crop year to-date. The USDA forecasts lower imports of rye than last year.

For 2020-21, the area seeded to winter rye in Canada increased by 32% from 2019-20. Production is forecast to increase to 455 Kt due to higher area harvested. Supply is expected to increase to 507 Kt. Exports, food and industrial use and carry-out stocks are projected to rise due to improved supplies.

The rye price is expected to decrease from 2019-20 due to higher supplies in Canada and around the world.

The USDA forecasts more rye will be shipped into the US in 2020-21. World trade volume is expected to expand. Exports from the EU are projected to decline significantly, while it increases sharply in the Black Sea region. The increase in 2020-21 world rye supply is forecast to exceed the increase in total use causing so that carry-out stocks increase significantly.

Rye [a]: June 23, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 136 175 231
Area harvested (kha) 79 103 145
Yield (t/ha) 2.99 3.25 3.14
Production (kt) 236 333 455
Imports (kt) [b] 2 2 2
Total supply (kt) 363 384 507
Exports (kt) [c] 146 158 170
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 19 15 39
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 134 140 113
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 167 176 167
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 49 50 170
Average Price ($/t) [g] 236 200-220 160-190
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Rye (No.1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada
Mixed Grains [a]: June 23, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 144 145 124
Area harvested (kha) 69 68 53
Yield (t/ha) 2.82 2.84 2.88
Production (kt) 195 192 152
Imports (kt) [b] 0 0 0
Total supply (kt) 195 192 152
Exports (kt) [c] 0 0 0
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 0 0 0
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 195 192 152
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 195 192 152
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 0 0 0
  • [a] August-July crop year
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Total Coarse Grains: June 23, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area Seeded 5,610 6,270 6,384
Area harvested (kha) 4,979 5,509 5,523
Yield (t/ha) 5.25 5.18 5.29
Production (kt) 26,132 28,549 29,207
Imports (kt) [b] 2,638 1,562 1,252
Total supply (kt) 33,333 33,402 34,708
Exports (kt) [c] 7,295 5,808 6,820
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 6,092 5,901 5,945
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 16,243 17,023 16,484
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 22,746 23,344 22,818
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 3,292 4,250 5,070
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Oilseeds

Canola

For 2019-20, canola supplies decreased marginally to 22.6 million tonnes (Mt) as sharply higher carry-in stocks was moderated by a sharp decline in production. Total usage of canola is expected to reach a near record 20.0 Mt based on an expected crush of 9.8 Mt and exports of 9.6 Mt. Canada's canola crush pace is on a record setting pace on support from strong world vegetable oil demand, large domestic stocks and decent crush margins.

The Canadian export pace accelerated in March and April on strong European and United Arab Emirate buying combined with expanded railcar capacity due to reduced shipments of non-agriculture commodities.  The COVID-19 pandemic is having a minimal effect on canola consumption, which AAFC assumes will continue for the remainder of the crop year.

Carry-out stocks are expected to fall by 1.2 Mt to 2.6 Mt for 2019-20, the third highest level on record. The stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 13 percent versus twenty percent for 2018-19 and the modern day record of 23 percent set in 2004-05. Canola prices are estimated at $465-495/t versus $497/t last year.

For 2020-21, seeded area in Canada is estimated by Statistics Canada to fall by 2% to 8.3 million hectares (Mha), as farmers shift into wheat and coarse grains away from oilseeds. The seeding intentions will be updated on June 29 when STC releases its seeded area estimates based on a large sample post-seeding survey.

AAFC forecasts a harvested area of 8.2 Mt for canola, based on farmer seeding intentions and assuming a normal rate of crop abandonment. Yields are projected at 2.27 tonnes per hectare (t/ha), up marginally from 2019-20, based on 5 year average yields. Despite a slighter later start than normal to field operations due to a cold spring, seeding of canola wrapped up in late May or early June for most regions of western Canada. Moisture conditions are adequate to drier than-normal across most of the oilseed growing region and temperatures were 2 to 3 degrees Celsius cooler than normal for May across much of Canada.  Canola production is forecast to rise slightly to 18.7 Mt while total supplies fall to 21.4 Mt as carry-in stocks decline sharply and slightly lower imports are expected. 

Exports are forecast to decline marginally to 9.5 Mt, as an expected return to normal European canola production more than offsets a slow and steady growth in world vegetable oil consumption.   Domestic crush is forecast to fall to 9.3 Mt, on competition from large world soybean oil and palm oil supplies. Carry-out stocks are forecast to tighten slightly to 2.3 Mt for a stocks-to-use ratio of 12% supporting a modest rise in canola prices to $480-520/t.

Canola [a]: June 23, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 9,232 8,481 8,342
Area harvested (kha) 9,120 8,319 8,257
Yield (t/ha) 2.23 2.24 2.27
Production (kt) 20,343 18,649 18,725
Imports (kt) [b] 146 150 100
Total supply (kt) 22,995 22,630 21,425
Exports (kt) [c] 9,202 9,600 9,500
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 9,295 9,750 9,250
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 605 629 324
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 9,962 10,430 9,625
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 3,831 2,600 2,300
Average Price ($/t) [g] 497 465-495 480-520
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Canola (No.1 Canada, cash, Track Vancouver)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Flaxseed (excluding solin)

For 2019-20, supplies are estimated at 0.56 Mt, versus 0.63 Mt for last year, on a decline in production and a drop in carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to decline to 0.35 Mt on stable world demand, tighter domestic supplies and disciplined farmer selling. Total domestic use is forecast to rise to 0.14 Mt on significantly higher feed, waste and dockage following last fall's challenging harvest. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise marginally to 0.07 Mt while flaxseed prices rise slightly to $510-540/t, versus $496/t in 2018-19.

For 2020-21, farmers intend to seed 0.38 Mha to flaxseed, a marginal year-on-year increase as a result of higher prices. Production is forecast to rise by 9% to 0.53 Mt, assuming a normal abandonment and five-year average historical yields. Supplies are forecast to increase by 9% to 0.61 Mt on higher output and carry-in stocks.

Exports are forecast up by 43% from 2019-20, to 0.50 Mt, on steady to stronger world consumption. Total domestic use is forecast to fall sharply to 0.40 Mt, on lower feed, waste and dockage. Carry-out stocks are forecast at 0.70 Mt while prices are expected to range from $490-530/t for 2020-21.

Flaxseed (excluding solin) [a]: June 23, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 347 379 381
Area harvested (kha) 342 339 355
Yield (t/ha) 1.44 1.43 1.50
Production (kt) 492 486 530
Imports (kt) [b] 9 15 10
Total supply (kt) 628 561 610
Exports (kt) [c] 468 350 500
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 0 0 0
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 83 125 20
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 100 141 40
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 60 70 70
Average Price ($/t) [g] 496 510-540 490-530
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Flaxseed (No.1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • n/a: not available
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Soybeans

For 2019-20, supplies are estimated at 7.1 Mt, down from last year's 9.2 Mt on sharply lower production and imports. Canadian exports are forecast to decline to 4.3Mt, versus 5.6 Mt last year on tighter domestic supplies and competition from large US and South American supplies. Canadian soybean crush is expected to fall by 13%, to 1.8 Mt.  Carry-out stocks are estimated at 0.3 Mt, while soybean prices are forecast to rise slightly to $400-430/t versus $406/t for 2018-19.

The factors to watch are:

  1. Canadian and US crop conditions
  2. US soybean export sales
  3. South American soybean export pace, and
  4. the spillover impact of lower corn prices on soymeal values

For 2020-21, Statistics Canada says farmers intend to plant 2.11 Mha to soybeans, based on producer surveys.  This is a 0.2 Mha drop from last year due to a combination of steady prices, a series of difficult harvests and uncertainty over revenues.  Production is forecast at 6.1 Mt, vs 6.0 Mt in 2019-20 and 7.4 Mt in 2018-19, assuming five-year average yields. The forecasts for near normal yields are supported by the normal planting pace, reports of near normal crop developments, with emergence problems reported in a few regions, and forecasts for normal moisture and normal to cooler-than normal temperatures for much of the growing regions.

Total supply is forecast to decrease slightly, to 6.9 Mt, as the sharp drop in carry-in stocks more than offsets the slight rise in production and imports. Exports are forecast at 4.2 Mt and are expected to head to a number of countries. Domestic processing is forecast up slightly at 1.9 Mt as crushers swing back to processing soybeans at a normal pace.  Carry-out stocks are forecast at 0.30 Mt unchanged from the 0.30 Mt for 2019-20 and down from the 0.70 Mt carried out in 2018-19. Soybean prices are forecast to from $385-425/t on support from stronger US prices with gains muted by a projected appreciation of the Canadian dollar against its American counterpart.

Soybeans [a] : June 23, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 2,558 2,313 2,112
Area harvested (kha) 2,540 2,271 2,102
Yield (t/ha) 2.92 2.66 2.89
Production (kt) 7,417 6,045 6,075
Imports (kt) [b] 1,131 400 500
Total supply (kt) 9,199 7,145 6,875
Exports (kt) [c] 5,640 4,300 4,200
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 2,058 1,800 1,900
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 563 495 275
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 2,859 2,545 2,375
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 700 300 300
Average Price ($/t) [g] 406 400-430 385-425
  • [a] Crop year is September-August.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Soybeans (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019, imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC but will be available from STC on October 4 2018. For 2019-2020[f], area, yield and production are from the STC survey but imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada
Total Oilseeds : June 23, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 12,137 11,172 10,836
Area harvested (kha) 12,001 10,929 10,714
Yield (t/ha) 2.35 2.30 2.36
Production (kt) 28,252 25,180 25,330
Imports (kt) [b] 1,286 565 610
Total supply (kt) 32,822 30,336 28,910
Exports (kt) [c] 15,310 14,250 14,200
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 11,354 11,550 11,150
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 1,252 1,249 619
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 12,921 13,115 12,040
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 4,591 2,970 2,670
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada
Total Grains and Oilseeds : June 23, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 27,820 27,568 27,569
Area harvested (kha) 26,861 26,094 26,231
Yield (t/ha) 3.22 3.30 3.37
Production (kt) 86,584 86,077 88,437
Imports (kt) [b] 4,043 2,397 2,082
Total supply (kt) 105,206 102,396 103,638
Exports (kt) [c] 46,881 43,258 45,120
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 44,403 46,017 43,978
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 13,922 13,120 14,540
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Pulses and special crops

Dry peas

For 2019-20, Canada's exports are expected to increase from 2018-19 to 3.65 million tonnes (Mt) due to record imports from China and strong demand from Bangladesh and India. For the August to April period, Canadian exports to the US are below last year's level, largely due to a larger US dry pea crop. Carry-out stocks in Canada are expected to fall, despite lower domestic use but increased export demand. The average dry pea price is expected to decline marginally from the price in 2018-19, as higher yellow and green pea prices are more than offset lower feed pea prices.

Over the crop year, the price premium for yellow dry pea prices over green dry peas is expected to average $130/t, unchanged from the premium observed in 2018-19. During the month of May, the yellow pea farmgate prices were unchanged, however, green pea prices fell $35/t, on expectations of an increase in green pea production in 2020-21.

For 2020-21, Canadian dry pea seeded area is expected to fall marginally from 2018-19 to 1.7 Mha despite higher returns from the previous year and solid export demand. By province, Saskatchewan is expected to account for 53% of the dry pea area, Alberta 41%, with the remainder seeded across Canada.

Production is expected to increase marginally to 4.3 Mt due to higher yields. Supply is forecast to increase only marginally due to similar carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be slightly lower, with China and Bangladesh as Canada's top markets. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise to nearly 0.5 Mt, but similar to the long-term average. The average price is expected to be unchanged to marginally lower from 2019-20 due to expectations for similar domestic but increased world supply.

In the US, area seeded to dry peas is forecast by the USDA to decrease by 12% to 0.97 million acres. This is largely due to an expected fall in North Dakota area. Assuming normal yields and abandonment, US dry pea production is forecast by AAFC to fall nearly 25% to below 0.8 Mt. The US has been successful in exporting small amounts of green dry peas to Canada, the Philippines, China and Yemen. It is expected the US will maintain its market share in 2020-21.

Dry Peas [a]: June 23, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,463 1,753 1,732
Area harvested (kha) 1,431 1,711 1,700
Yield (t/ha) 2.50 2.48 2.51
Production (kt) 3,581 4,237 4,275
Imports (kt) [b] 62 72 60
Total supply (kt) 4,291 4,621 4,635
Exports (b) 3,270 3,650 3,400
Total Domestic Use (c) 708 671 760
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 312 300 475
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 8 7 11
Average Price (d) 270 260-270 250-280
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2019-2020[f] and the years before 2019-2020[f], area, yield and production are from STC. For the years before 2019-2020[f], imports, exports, seed requirements and carry-out stocks are from STC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Lentils

For 2019-20, lentil exports are forecast to increase from 2018-19 to 2.2 Mt. The main markets are India, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. Total domestic use is forecast to be higher than the previous year at near 0.4 Mt because of the below average quality. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease. The average price, for all types and grades, is forecast to rise sharply due to lower carry-out stocks for large green types. For the crop year, large green lentil prices are expected to maintain a premium of C$110/t over red lentil prices. During May, Saskatchewan large green lentil prices were unchanged and red lentil farm gate prices fell by $30/t.

For 2020-21, area seeded to lentils in Canada is expected to decrease marginally to 1.5 Mha, despite the sharp rise in farmgate lentil prices in the last half of the 2019-20 crop year. Saskatchewan is expected to account for 90% of the lentil area, with the remainder in Alberta and Manitoba. Production is forecast by AAFC to fall to 2.15 Mt. Supply is expected to fall to 2.5 Mt, as a result of lower carry-in stocks and production. Exports are expected to be lower than in 2019-20 at 2.0 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease to below 0.2 Mt. The average price is forecast to rise from 2019-20 with higher prices for the top grades, with the assumption of an average grade distribution.

In the US, the area seeded to lentils for 2019-20 is forecast by the USDA at 0.47 million acres, down from 2019-20 due to lower area seeded in North Dakota. Assuming normal yields and abandonment, US lentil production is forecast by AAFC to be unchanged from 2020-21 at 245 thousand tonnes (Kt). The main US export markets for lentils continue to be the EU, Canada, India and Mexico.

Lentils [a]: June 23, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,525 1,530 1,501
Area harvested (kha) 1,499 1,489 1,475
Yield (t/ha) 1.40 1.46 1.46
Production (kt) 2,092 2,167 2,150
Imports (kt) [b] 51 85 50
Total supply (kt) 3,016 2,883 2,500
Exports (b) 2,033 2,200 2,000
Total Domestic Use (c) 352 383 350
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 631 300 150
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 26 12 6
Average Price (d) 390 465-485 500-530
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2019-2020[f] and the years before 2019-2020[f], area, yield and production are from STC. For the years before 2019-2020[f], imports, exports, seed requirements and carry-out stocks are from STC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Dry beans

For 2019-20, dry bean exports are expected to be marginally above than the previous year. The US and the EU remain the main markets for Canadian dry beans, with smaller volumes exported to Japan and Angola. The smaller North American supply and below average grade distribution is expected to continue to support strong US and Canadian dry bean prices for the remainder of 2019-20.

For 2020-21, the area seeded in Canada is forecast to decrease by 18% from 2019-20 mainly because of lower yields and quality, compared to other crops. By province, Ontario is expected to account for 47% of the dry bean area, Manitoba 36%, Alberta 16%, with the remainder seeded in Saskatchewan, Quebec and the Maritimes. Production is expected to fall to 0.29 Mt. Supply is expected to decrease but be buffered by large carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to fall marginally despite the increased supply. Carry-out stocks are expected to fall. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to fall sharply, due to higher expected supply in North America, particularly for the white pea bean and pinto types.

In the US, area seeded to dry beans is forecast by the USDA to rise by 7% to 1.37 million acres due to a rise in area seeded in Nebraska and North Dakota. Assuming normal yields and abandonment, 2020-21 US total dry bean production (excluding chickpeas) is therefore forecast to rise above 1.1 Mt, up 19% from 2019-20.

Dry Beans [a]: June 23, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 143 160 131
Area harvested (kha) 137 150 126
Yield (t/ha) 2.49 2.11 2.30
Production (kt) 341 317 290
Imports (kt) [b] 98 83 85
Total supply (kt) 464 479 465
Exports (b) 348 350 345
Total Domestic Use (c) 37 39 40
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 80 90 80
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 21 23 21
Average Price (d) 815 975-995 790-820
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Chickpeas

For 2019-20, Canadian chickpea exports are expected to fall to 125 Kt due to decreased export demand from Pakistan. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise sharply and pressure prices. The average price is forecast to be unchanged when compared to the previous year despite an increase in North American chickpea supply.

For 2020-21, the area seeded is expected to decrease sharply from 2019-20 due to difficulties during previous harvest and lower yields. By province, Saskatchewan is expected to account for the majority of the chickpea area, with the remainder in Alberta. Production is forecast to fall significantly to 170 Kt. Supply is forecast to decrease but will be buffered by higher carry-in stocks softening the lower production. Exports are forecast to be unchanged and carry-out stocks are expected to decrease and remain burdensome. The average price is forecast to fall due to larger world supply, with the expectation of an average grade distribution in 2020-21.

US chickpea area for 2020-21 is forecast by the USDA to decrease to 0.31 million acres, down 32% from the previous year. This is largely due to an expected fall in area in Idaho, North Dakota and Washington. Assuming normal yields and abandonment, 2020-21 US chickpea production is therefore forecast by AAFC at 0.2 Mt, down 30% from 2019-20. The US is expected to continue to hold on to its market share in the EU, Pakistan and Canada.

Chickpeas [a]: June 23, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 179 159 103
Area harvested (kha) 176 156 100
Yield (t/ha) 1.77 1.61 1.70
Production (kt) 311 252 170
Imports (kt) [b] 51 52 50
Total supply (kt) 376 404 360
Exports (b) 147 125 125
Total Domestic Use (c) 129 139 135
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 100 140 100
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 36 53 38
Average Price (d) 480 470-490 455-485
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Mustard seed

For 2019-20, Canadian mustard exports are forecast to fall to 115 Kt. The US and the EU have been the main export markets for Canadian mustard seed. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease. Prices are forecast to rise from 2018-19 due to decreased carry-out stocks, particularly for yellow and brown types.

For 2020-21, the area seeded is expected to be largely unchanged due to higher prices from the previous year. By province, Saskatchewan is expected to account for 71% of the mustard seeded area, with 29% seeded in Alberta. Production is forecast by AAFC to increase marginally to 140 Kt due to similar expected area and average yields. Supply is expected to fall only marginally, due to higher production offsetting lower carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to be unchanged at 115 Kt and carry-out stocks are forecast to be lower than the previous year. The average price is forecast to be lower than that observed for the previous year.

Mustard Seed [a]: June 23, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 204 161 160
Area harvested (kha) 197 155 155
Yield (t/ha) 0.88 0.87 0.90
Production (kt) 174 135 140
Imports (kt) [b] 8 7 8
Total supply (kt) 235 214 203
Exports (b) 121 115 115
Total Domestic Use (c) 42 44 43
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 73 55 45
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 45 35 28
Average Price (d) 690 700-720 680-710
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020[f] which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Canary seed

For 2019-20, exports are expected to be marginally higher than 2018-19. The EU and Mexico have remained the main markets. Carry-out stocks are expected to tighten. The average price is forecast to increase compared to 2018-19.

For 2020-21, the area seeded is expected to increase due to higher returns for canary seed relative to other crops. Production is forecast to rise by 5% but supply is expected to decrease. Exports are expected to decrease from 2019-20 due to lower supply. Carry-out stocks are expected to remain tight. The average price is forecast to be lower than the 2019-20 level.

Canary Seed [a]: June 23, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 109 104 112
Area harvested (kha) 109 99 110
Yield (t/ha) 1.45 1.49 1.41
Production (kt) 158 148 155
Imports (kt) [b] 0 0 0
Total supply (kt) 174 158 155
Exports (b) 156 158 150
Total Domestic Use (c) 7 0 5
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 11 0 0
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 7 0 0
Average Price (d) 505 620-640 540-570
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020[f] which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Sunflower seed

For 2019-20, sunflower seed exports are forecast to increase to 34 Kt due to higher demand from the US. The US and Japan have been Canada's main export markets for sunflower seed. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise. The average Canadian price for sunflower seed is forecast to increase from 2018-19, due to higher oil type sunflower seed prices.

For 2020-21, the area seeded is expected to rise to the largest area in 10 years from 2019-20 due to similar potential returns compared to other crops. Production is forecast to be higher at 85 Kt, assuming average yields. However, supply is expected to increase sharply to 209 Kt. Exports are expected to fall and carry-out stocks are forecast to increase. The average price is forecast to fall from 2019-20 due to expectations for higher North American sunflower seed supply and weaker oil and confectionery type prices in the US and Canada.

US sunflower seed area for 2020-21 is forecast by the USDA to rise to 1.56 million acres, up 15% from 2019-20 due to increased area in South Dakota. The area seeded to oil type varieties is expected to rise to nearly 1.4 million acres and the area seeded to confectionery type varieties is forecast to increase to 0.2 million acres. Assuming normal yields and abandonment, 2020-21 US sunflower seed production is forecast by AAFC to rise by over 20% to nearly 1.1 Mt.

Sunflower Seed [a]: June 23, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 29 31 42
Area harvested (kha) 27 29 41
Yield (t/ha) 2.13 2.18 2.07
Production (kt) 57 63 85
Imports (kt) [b] 24 26 24
Total supply (kt) 179 185 209
Exports (b) 26 34 30
Total Domestic Use (c) 56 51 59
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 96 100 120
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 116 118 135
Average Price (d) 585 595-615 575-605
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020[f] which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Total Pulses and Special Crops [a]: June 23, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 3,652 3,897 3,780
Area harvested (kha) 3,576 3,788 3,707
Yield (t/ha) 1.88 1.93 1.96
Production (kt) 6,714 7,317 7,265
Imports (kt) [b] 293 325 277
Total supply (kt) 8,734 8,944 8,527
Exports (b) 6,101 6,632 6,165
Total Domestic Use (c) 1,331 1,327 1,392
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,302 985 970
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC and STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Historical data

Historical principal field crops data are available in spreadsheet format and can be obtained by emailing aafc.bulletin.aac@canada.ca. Please specify crops, crop years, and preferred file format in your request.

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