Language selection

Search

Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops, 2020-05-22

Canada: Outlook for Field Crops (PDF Version, 230 KB)

Historical Data

This report is an update of Agriculture and Agri‑Food Canada’s (AAFC) April outlook report for the current 2019‑20 crop year and the up‑coming 2020‑21 crop year.

For 2019‑20, information has been incorporated from Statistics Canada’s (STC) May 7 report on Stocks of Principal Field Crops in Canada which indicated that stocks of wheat, barley and oats were up on March 31 compared with the same date in 2019, while stocks of canola, corn for grain, soybeans, dry field peas and lentils were down. As a result of the COVID‑19 pandemic, the estimates of on‑farm stocks were produced under exceptional circumstances but data related to commercial stocks was not affected. Total carry‑out stocks of field crops in Canada are expected to be about 14.2 million tonnes (Mt), almost 7% lower than 2018‑19 but similar to the 10 year average. The situation and outlook for world and Canadian grain markets is expected to continue to be impacted by the domestic and international uncertainty caused by COVID‑19.

For 2020‑21, Statistics Canada’s May 7 report on the March Seeding Intentions of Principal Field Crops in Canada indicated that farmers intend to increase the area seeded to wheat, corn for grain and oats in 2020 compared with 2019. However, the area seeded to canola, soybeans, barley, dry peas and lentils are expected to decrease. The actual planting decisions are strongly influenced by crop rotation considerations, current inventories, expected prices and marketing conditions such as ongoing trade issues, as well as weather during seeding and delays in planting due to the ongoing spring harvest of the 2019 crop. However, based on current market conditions and historical trends, the area seeded to field crops in Canada is forecast to decrease marginally from 2019‑20. In general, average yields are forecast to increase compared to 2019‑20 because excessive moisture conditions in some areas reduced yields last year. The production of grains and oilseeds (G&O) and pulses and special crops (P&SC) is forecast to increase modestly so that total field crop production is expected to expand by 2 percent to 95.7 Mt. In general, abundant supplies and factors related to COVID‑19 are expected to pressure world grain prices but prices in Canada will continue to be supported by the low value of the Canadian dollar.

Total Grains and Oilseeds: May 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 27,820 27,568 27,569
Area harvested (kha) 26,861 26,094 26,231
Yield (t/ha) 3.22 3.30 3.37
Production (kt) 86,584 86,077 88,418
Imports (kt) 4,043 2,167 2,062
Total supply (kt) 105,206 102,166 103,700
Exports (kt) 46,891 43,053 45,215
Total Domestic Use (kt) 44,393 45,892 44,095
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 13,922 13,220 14,390
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Total Pulses and Special Crops: May 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 3,652 3,897 3,780
Area harvested (kha) 3,576 3,788 3,707
Yield (t/ha) 1.88 1.93 1.96
Production (kt) 6,714 7,317 7,265
Imports (kt) 293 325 277
Total supply (kt) 8,734 8,944 8,527
Exports (kt) 6,101 6,632 6,165
Total Domestic Use (kt) 1,331 1,327 1,392
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,302 985 970
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
All Principal Field Crops: May 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 31,472 31,465 31,349
Area harvested (kha) 30,437 29,882 29,938
Yield (t/ha) 3.07 3.13 3.20
Production (kt) 93,298 93,394 95,683
Imports (kt) 4,336 2,492 2,339
Total supply (kt) 113,940 111,109 112,227
Exports (kt) 52,992 49,685 51,380
Total Domestic Use (kt) 45,724 47,219 45,487
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 15,224 14,205 15,360
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat

Durum

For 2019‑20, Canadian durum production decreased by 13% from 2018‑19 to 4.98 million tonnes (Mt).
Total supply decreased by 5%, as the lower production was partly offset by higher carry‑in stocks. Exports are forecast to increase by 8% to 4.9 Mt due to stronger demand resulting from a decrease in world production. The exports forecast was raised by 0.1 Mt from the April report based on the pace of exports for the first nine months of the crop year. Carry‑out stocks are forecast to fall by 50% from 2018‑19 to 0.9 Mt, 37% lower than the past five‑year average of 1.43 Mt.

World durum production fell by 3.3 Mt from 2018‑19 to 33.7 Mt, while supply decreased by 2.6 Mt to 43.5 Mt, according to the International Grains Council (IGC). Use is expected to fall by 0.7 Mt to 35.6 Mt. Carry out stocks are forecast to fall by 1.9 Mt to 7.9 Mt. US durum production fell by 0.66 Mt from 2018‑19 to 1.46 Mt, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The average Canadian crop year producer price for durum is forecast to rise from 2018‑19 due to lower world, Canadian and US supply.

For 2020‑21, the area seeded to durum in Canada is expected to increase by 7% from 2019‑20, according to Statistics Canada’s (STC) seeding intentions survey. Production is forecast to rise by 11% to 5.5 Mt as the increase in seeded area is compounded by higher trend yields and a return to normal abandonment rate. Supply is projected to fall by 5% as the higher production is more than offset by lower carry‑in stocks. Exports are expected to be stable at 4.9 Mt due to the limited supply. Carry‑out stocks are forecast to fall by 11% to 0.8 Mt.

World durum production is forecast to increase by 1.1 Mt from 2019‑20 to 34.8 Mt, according to IGC. Supply is expected to fall by 0.8 Mt to 42.7 Mt because of lower carry‑in stocks. Use is expected to fall by 0.1 Mt to 35.5 Mt, while carry‑out stocks fall by 0.7 Mt to 7.2 Mt, the lowest since 2012‑13. US durum production is forecast to rise by 0.09 Mt to 1.55 Mt.

The average Canadian crop year producer price for durum is forecast to be the same as for 2019‑20.

Durum [a]: May 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 2,503 1,980 2,116
Area harvested (kha) 2,456 1,902 2,074
Yield (t/ha) 2.34 2.62 2.65
Production (kt) 5,745 4,977 5,500
Imports (kt) [b] 24 100 100
Total supply (kt) 7,245 6,869 6,500
Exports (kt) [c] 4,526 4,900 4,900
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 204 210 210
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 532 655 353
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 927 1,069 800
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,792 900 800
Average Price ($/t) [g] 235 260-280 255-285
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Crop year average prices: Wheat (No.1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No.1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices. Barley (No. 1 feed, cash, I/S Lethbridge), Corn (No.2 CE, cash, I/S Chatham), Oats (US No. 2 Heavy, CBOT nearby futures); Rye (No. 1 CW, cash, I/S Saskatoon); Canola (No. 1 Canada, cash, Track Vancouver); Flaxseed (No. 1 CW, cash, I/S Saskatoon); Soybeans (No. 2 CE, cash, I/S Chatham)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat (excluding durum)

For 2019‑20, Canadian wheat production rose by 3.5% from 2018‑19 to 27.4 Mt. Production by class of wheat, with 2018‑19 production in brackets, is estimated at: winter wheat (hard red, soft red and soft white) 1.7 Mt (2.51 Mt); Canada Western Red Spring (CWRS), premium quality hard wheat, 22.17 Mt (20.03 Mt); Canada Prairie Spring (CPS) 1.49 Mt (1.59 Mt), Canada Northern Hard Red Spring (CNHR) 0.74 Mt (1.06 Mt); soft white spring (CWSWS) 0.54 Mt (0.48 Mt), other western spring wheat 0.27 Mt (0.39 Mt), eastern spring wheat, mainly hard red spring (CERS), 0.46 Mt (0.39 Mt).

Total supply fell marginally, as lower carry‑in stocks more‑than offset the increase in production. Exports are forecast to fall by 9% to 18 Mt, due to more competition from other exporters because of higher world production. Carry‑out stocks are forecast to increase by 18% to 5 Mt, but only 1% higher than the past five‑year average of 4.96 Mt. The feed, waste and dockage forecast is unusually high because of the unharvested wheat at the start of winter.

World all wheat (including durum) production increased by 34 Mt to 764 Mt, while the supply increased by 29 Mt to 1,044 Mt, according to USDA. Total use is expected to increase by 14 Mt to 749 Mt. World all wheat carry‑out stocks are forecast to rise by 16 Mt to 295 Mt or, if stocks in China are not included, stocks would increase by 5 Mt to 145 Mt. Chinese wheat stocks are seldom exported.

US all wheat production rose by 1 Mt from 2018‑19 to 52.3 Mt, according to USDA. Supply is 0.4 Mt lower at 84.5 Mt. Domestic use is forecast to increase by 1.5 Mt, while exports rise by 0.9 Mt. Carry out stocks are forecast to decrease by 2.8 Mt to 26.6 Mt.

Average Canadian producer prices for wheat for the crop year are forecast to fall from 2018‑19 because of the higher world supply.

For 2020‑21, Canadian area seeded to wheat is expected to increase by 1% from 2019‑20, with a 17% increase in the winter wheat area and a marginal decrease for spring wheat area, based on the STC seeding intentions survey. Production is projected to rise by 4% to 28.4 Mt. The winter wheat production is projected to increase by 65% to 2.8 Mt due to higher seeded area and a return to normal abandonment rate. Spring wheat production is expected to fall marginally to 25.6 Mt.

Supply is forecast to increase by 5% because of higher production and carry‑in stocks. Exports are expected to rise by 7%. Carry‑out stocks are forecast to increase by 20% to 6 Mt.

World all wheat production is forecast to rise by 4 Mt from 2019‑20 to 768 Mt while supply increases by 20 Mt to 1,064 Mt due to higher carry‑in stocks, according to USDA. Total use is expected to rise by 5 Mt to 754 Mt, as higher food use is partly offset by lower feed use. Carry‑out stocks are forecast to rise by 15 Mt to 310 Mt. Excluding China, carry‑out stocks are projected to rise by 5 Mt to 150 Mt.

US all wheat production is forecast to fall by 0.5 Mt from 2019‑20 to 50.8 Mt, according to USDA. Imports are forecast to increase by 0.9 Mt. Supply of all wheat is projected to fall by 3.3 Mt to 81.2 Mt. Exports are forecast to fall by 0.5 Mt, while domestic use falls by 0.9 Mt. Carry‑out stocks are forecast to decrease by 1.9 Mt to 24.7 Mt.

Average Canadian producer prices for wheat for the crop year are forecast to rise from 2019‑20 because of the forecast for a weaker Canadian dollar for 2020‑21 as compared to 2019‑20.

Wheat Except Durum [a]: May 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 7,570 8,145 8,233
Area harvested (kha) 7,425 7,754 7,920
Yield 3.56 3.53 3.59
Production (kt) 26,456 27,371 28,400
Imports (b) 95 150 100
Total supply (kt) 31,807 31,768 33,500
Exports (kt) [c] 19,750 18,000 19,200
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 3,294 3,360 3,390
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 3,681 4,573 4,073
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 7,809 8,768 8,300
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 4,247 5,000 6,000
Average Price ($/t) [g] 245 215-235 215-245
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Crop year average prices: Wheat (No.1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No.1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices and are not comparable to CWB pool returns for previous years.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
All Wheat [a]: May 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 10,073 10,125 10,349
Area harvested (kha) 9,881 9,656 9,994
Yield (t/ha) 3.26 3.35 3.39
Production (kt) 32,201 32,348 33,900
Imports (kt) [b] 119 250 200
Total supply (kt) 39,052 38,638 40,000
Exports (kt) [c] 24,276 22,900 24,100
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 3,498 3,570 3,600
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 4,213 5,228 4,426
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 8,736 9,838 9,100
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 6,040 5,900 6,800
  • [a] Crop year is August-July
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Coarse grains

Barley

For 2019‑20, the total supply of barley increased by 17% from 2018‑19 due to higher production despite historically low carry‑in stocks. Domestic use is expected to increase by 18%, largely due to higher feed use. Total exports are expected to decrease on lower exports of feed barley to China despite higher exports of barley malt. Carry‑out stocks are forecast to rise sharply from last year largely due to the significant increase in supply.

Barley prices for the crop‑year to‑date in the Prairie provinces declined from a year ago but remain strong. For the entire crop year, the feed barley price at Lethbridge feedlots is expected to be 14% lower than last year, due to increased barley supplies in Canada and around the world.

Since 2014‑15, China has been the largest export market for Canadian barley, taking more than half of Canadian barley grain exports. For 2019‑20 to March, exports to China decreased by 8% particularly due to the declined exports in February and March. The US is the second largest market for Canadian barley grain and barley malt. Exports to the US increased by 28% for barley grains and 7% for malt, although the import pace for malt slowed down in March. Japan is another important importer for Canadian barley grains and barley malt. Exports of barley grain to Japan decreased by 17% and increased by 8% for malt.

World barley production and supply in 2019‑20 increased to its highest level in the recent two decades. Barley production increased in the major exporting countries, including the EU, Russia, Ukraine and Australia. World trade volume is expected to be similar to last year despite expanded supplies, as the major exporters are expected to import more corn because of lower prices for corn. Total consumption is anticipated to grow. Carry‑out stocks are expected to be higher than the previous year

For 2020‑21, the area seeded to barley in Canada is expected to decrease by 2%. Production is forecast to decrease by 7% from last year, using the five‑year (2015‑16 to 2019‑20) averages for yield and area harvested. Supplies are forecast to be slightly higher than for 2019‑20, which will encourage exports. Domestic use and carry‑out stocks are expected to be similar to 2019‑20.

The average price of feed barley for 2020‑21 is expected to drop from 2019‑20 due to increased domestic supplies. In addition, large corn supplies around the world will restrict feed grain prices.

World barley production for 2020‑21 is expected to fall slightly but total supplies are expected to be ample due to higher carry‑in stocks, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Total use is anticipated to rise but will be limited by large corn supplies. Carry‑out stocks are expected to increase. World trade volume for barley is expected to reduce as cheap corn will replace some feed barley.

Barley [a]: May 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 2,628 2,996 2,934
Area harvested (kha) 2,395 2,728 2,606
Yield (t/ha) 3.50 3.81 3.69
Production (kt) 8,380 10,383 9,605
Imports (kt) [b] 43 40 40
Total supply (kt) 9,667 11,285 11,345
Exports (kt) [c] 3,068 2,800 2,875
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 104 116 116
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 5,375 6,416 6,424
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 5,737 6,785 6,770
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 863 1,700 1,700
Average Price ($/t) [g] 260 210-240 195-225
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Barley (No.1 feed, cash, in-store Lethbridge).
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Corn

For 2019‑20, the total supply of corn in Canada decreased by 12% as a result of lower carry‑in stocks, production and imports. Corn imports for the entire crop year are expected to decrease by 26%, based on the current import pace and lower domestic demand.

Total domestic use is expected to decrease due to reduced industrial use and feed use. Corn exports are expected to fall sharply to 400 thousand tonnes (Kt), as exports to the EU have been nil for the first seven months. As a result, carry‑out stocks are forecast to fall only slightly.

The average price of corn for 2019‑20 is expected to be flat with the level in last year due to lower US corn price being offset by the depreciated Canadian currency.

In the US, the use of corn for ethanol production has decreased significantly due to the decline in ethanol demand and motor gasoline consumption, as well as the major downturn in petroleum prices. A part of the decrease in industrial use has been offset by higher feed use.

The average on‑farm price of corn in the US is projected by the USDA at US$3.60/bu, versus US$3.61/bu for last year.

Corn production in other major world exporters, including Brazil, Argentina, Russia and Ukraine, remains abundant, which will continue to pressure corn prices.

For 2020‑21, the area seeded to corn in Canada is forecast to increase by 3% from 2019‑20. Production is forecast to increase by 10% due to higher yields and area harvested. Imports are expected to fall given expectations for ample corn supplies. As a result, supply is projected to increase by 7%. Domestic use is projected to rise by 1% due to increased industrial use and stable feed use. Given the increase in domestic supplies and continued strong global demand, exports are expected to increase. Carry‑out stocks are forecast to rise due to higher supply.

The average price of corn in Canada is expected to drop following forecasts for lower corn prices in the US for 2020‑21.

The USDA projected corn acres in the US for 2020 at 97 million acres, up 8% from 89.7 million acres for 2019 and the highest since 2012. Combined with forecasts for higher area harvested and improved yields, US corn production will increase by 17%, and supplies will increase by 14%. Ending stocks are expected to increase by more than 50%, even with higher total use. The US corn price for 2020‑21 is projected at US$3.20/bu, versus US$3.60/bu for 2019‑20.

At the world level, the USDA forecast the 2020‑21 world corn crop will be the largest ever, and the output in the word major exporters continue to expand. World consumption is tentatively seen a fresh peak. Carry‑out stocks are set to rise to a three‑season high, led by the US. World trade volume is forecast to expand to a record level owing to ample supplies and lower prices.

Corn [a]: May 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,468 1,496 1,544
Area harvested (kha) 1,431 1,451 1,504
Yield (t/ha) 9.70 9.24 9.77
Production (kt) 13,885 13,404 14,694
Imports (kt) [b] 2,582 1,300 1,200
Total supply (kt) 18,884 16,687 17,794
Exports (kt) [c] 1,617 400 1,300
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 5,786 5,200 5,300
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 9,481 9,171 9,178
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 15,284 14,387 14,494
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,983 1,900 2,000
Average Price ($/t) [g] 194 180-210 175-205
  • [a] Crop year is September-August.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Corn (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham).
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019, imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC but will be available from STC on October 4 2018. For 2019-2020[f], area, yield and production are from the STC survey but imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Oats

For 2019‑20, the total supply of oats in Canada increased by 10% due to increased production, despite sharply lower carry‑in stocks. Domestic use is expected to increase by 5% largely due to strong demand for food production. Exports, including grain and products, are anticipated to rise by 3% due to increased supply and solid export sales. Carry‑out stocks are expected to increase significantly due to increased supply.

For the entire crop year, the CBOT oat futures price is expected to increase by 4% from last year.

Oat supply in the US, the leading importer of Canadian oats, decreased marginally from last year as higher imports more‑than offset lower production and carry‑in stocks. Total use is forecast to increase by 5% due to higher feed use. Carry‑out stocks are projected to sharply fall by 24%. The US oat price for 2019‑20 is projected to rise by 7% to US$2.85/bu.

Oat production for 2019‑20 increased in the world major exporting countries, including the EU and Australia. World consumption is projected to fall, while total carry‑out stocks are anticipated to rise.

For 2020‑21, the area seeded to oats in Canada is forecast to increase by about 6% to the highest level since 2009. Production is forecast to increase only by 1%, as higher area harvested is expected to be partly offset by lower yields. Supply is projected to increase by 7%, owing to higher carry‑in stocks and production. Domestic use is expected to drop by 7% due to lower food use. Exports are anticipated to remain unchanged due to expectations for bumper supplies in the major exporting countries, as well as in the US. Carry‑out stocks are forecast to rise due to increased supplies.

The average price of oats for 2020‑21 is expected to be lower than 2019‑20 due to higher supply in Canada, the US and around the world, as well as forecasts for lower corn prices.

The area seeded to oats in the US is expected to increase to about 3 million acres, the highest since 2016. Total supply is forecast to increase due to higher production and imports. Feed use continues to rise. Carry‑out stocks are forecast to increase by 45%. The US oat price for 2020‑21 is projected at US$2.50/bu, versus US$2.85/bu for 2019‑20.

Oat production in the world major exporters is expected to grow. With the increase in total use being more than offset by the rise in supplies, carry‑out stocks are projected to increase by 33% with more than half of the increase coming from the world major exporters.

Oats [a]: May 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,235 1,459 1,551
Area harvested (kha) 1,005 1,160 1,215
Yield (t/ha) 3.42 3.65 3.54
Production (kt) 3,436 4,237 4,301
Imports (kt) [b] 11 10 10
Total supply (kt) 4,225 4,644 4,981
Exports (kt) [c] 2,475 2,550 2,550
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 182 270 190
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 1,049 1,024 1,022
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 1,353 1,424 1,331
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 397 670 1,100
Average Price ($/t) [g] 254 250-280 210-240
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Oats (US No.2 Heavy, Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) nearby futures)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Rye

For 2019‑20, the total supply of rye increased by only 6% from 2018‑19, as most of the increase in production was offset by a significant drop in carry‑in stocks. Domestic use is expected to reduce slightly due to the drop in feed use. Exports are forecast to increase by 5%. Carry‑out stocks are expected to rise due to increased supply.

The price of rye at Saskatchewan for the entire crop year is anticipated to decrease by 11% from 2018‑19 to average $210/t.

The US has taken more than 99% of Canadian rye exports for this crop year to‑date. The USDA forecasts lower imports of rye than last year.

For 2020‑21, the area seeded to winter rye in Canada increased by 32% from 2019‑20. Production is forecast to increase to 437 Kt due to higher area harvested. Supply is expected to increase to 518 Kt. Exports, domestic use and carry‑out stocks are forecast to rise due to improved supplies.

The rye price is expected to decrease from 2019‑20 due to higher supplies in Canada and around the world.

The USDA forecasts more rye will be shipped into the US in 2020‑21. World trade volume will rise. Exports from the EU will decline significantly, while it increases sharply in the Black Sea region. The increase in 2020‑21 world rye supply will surpass the increase in total use, which will result in carry‑out stocks to increase significantly.

Rye [a]: May 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 136 175 231
Area harvested (kha) 79 103 145
Yield (t/ha) 2.99 3.25 3.01
Production (kt) 236 333 437
Imports (kt) [b] 2 2 2
Total supply (kt) 363 384 518
Exports (kt) [c] 146 153 190
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 19 15 39
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 134 115 154
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 167 151 208
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 49 80 120
Average Price ($/t) [g] 236 195-225 170-200
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Rye (No.1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada
Mixed Grains [a]: May 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 144 145 124
Area harvested (kha) 69 68 53
Yield (t/ha) 2.82 2.84 2.88
Production (kt) 195 192 152
Imports (kt) [b] 0 0 0
Total supply (kt) 195 192 152
Exports (kt) [c] 0 0 0
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 0 0 0
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 195 192 152
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 195 192 152
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 0 0 0
  • [a] August-July crop year
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Total Coarse Grains: May 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area Seeded 5,610 6,270 6,384
Area harvested (kha) 4,979 5,509 5,523
Yield (t/ha) 5.25 5.18 5.28
Production (kt) 26,132 28,549 29,188
Imports (kt) [b] 2,638 1,352 1,252
Total supply (kt) 33,333 33,192 34,789
Exports (kt) [c] 7,305 5,903 6,915
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 6,092 5,601 5,645
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 16,233 16,918 16,930
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 22,736 22,939 22,954
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 3,292 4,350 4,920
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Oilseeds

Canola

For 2019‑20, canola supplies decreased marginally to 22.6 million tonnes (Mt) as sharply higher carry‑in stocks was moderated by a sharp decline in production. Total usage of canola is expected to reach a near record of 20.0 Mt based on an expected crush of 9.8 Mt and exports of 9.6 Mt, the fourth highest on record. Canada’s canola crush pace is on a record setting pace on support from strong world vegetable oil demand, large domestic stocks and decent crush margins.

The Canadian export pace picked up sharply in March and April on strong European and United Arab Emirate buying while a sharp drop in crude oil shipments freed up railcar capacity. To date, the COVID‑19 pandemic appears to have had a minimal impact on canola demand and AAFC assumes consumption will remain unaffected by the disease for the remainder of the crop year.

Carry‑out stocks are expected to fall by 1.2 Mt to 2.6 Mt for 2019‑20, the third highest level on record. The stocks‑to‑use ratio is estimated at 13 percent versus twenty percent for 2018‑19 and the modern day record of 23 percent set in 2004‑05. Canola prices are estimated at $465‑495/t versus $497/t last year.

For 2020‑21, seeded area in Canada is estimated by Statistics Canada to decline by about 2% to
8.3 million hectares (Mha), as farmers shift into alternative crops away from oilseeds. In the release, Statistics Canada informed readers that as a result of the timing of the COVID‑19 pandemic, the March 2020 estimates were produced under exceptional circumstances, active collection of data for the survey was haltered earlier than planned resulting in a lower than usual response rate compared with previous years. These seeding intentions will be updated with revised seeded area estimates based on a post‑seeding survey targeted for release on June 29.

AAFC forecasts a harvested area of 8.2 Mt for canola, based on farmer seeding intentions and assuming a normal rate of crop abandonment. Yields are projected at 2.27 tonnes per hectare (t/ha), up marginally from 2019‑20, based on 5 year average yields. Production of canola is forecast to rise slightly to 18.7 Mt. Total supplies of canola are forecast to fall to 21.4 Mt based on the sharp decline in carry‑in stocks and slightly lower expected imports.

Exports are forecast to decline marginally to 9.5 Mt, as a slow and steady growth in world consumption of vegetable oils is offset by a return to normal growing conditions for the European rapeseed crop. Domestic crush is forecast to fall to 9.3 Mt, on competition from large world soybean oil and palm oil supplies and spillover from the collapse in world crude oil prices. Carry‑out stocks are forecast to tighten slightly to 2.3 Mt for a stocks‑to‑use ratio of 12% supporting a modest rise in canola prices to $480‑520/t.

Canola [a]: May 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 9,232 8,481 8,342
Area harvested (kha) 9,120 8,319 8,257
Yield (t/ha) 2.23 2.24 2.27
Production (kt) 20,343 18,649 18,725
Imports (kt) [b] 146 150 100
Total supply (kt) 22,995 22,630 21,425
Exports (kt) [c] 9,202 9,600 9,500
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 9,295 9,750 9,250
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 605 629 324
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 9,962 10,430 9,625
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 3,831 2,600 2,300
Average Price ($/t) [g] 497 465-495 480-520
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Canola (No.1 Canada, cash, Track Vancouver)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Flaxseed (excluding solin)

For 2019‑20, supplies are estimated at 0.56 Mt, versus 0.63 Mt for last year, because of lower production and decreased carry‑in stocks. Exports are forecast to decline to 0.35 Mt on stable world demand, tighter domestic supplies and disciplined farmer selling. Total domestic use is forecast to rise to 0.14 Mt on significantly higher feed, waste and dockage following last fall’s challenging harvest. Carry‑out stocks are forecast to rise marginally to 0.07 Mt while flaxseed prices rise slightly to $510‑540/t, versus $496/t in 2018‑19.

For 2020‑21, farmers intend to seed 0.38 Mha to flaxseed, a marginal year‑on‑year increase fuelled by support from higher prices. Production is forecast to rise by 9% to 0.53 Mt, assuming a normal abandonment and using five‑year average historical yields. Supplies are forecast to increase by 9% to 0.61 Mt on higher output and carry‑in stocks.

Exports are forecast up by 43% from 2019‑20, to 0.50 Mt, on steady to stronger world consumption. Total domestic use is also forecast to rise to 0.40 Mt, on higher feed, waste and dockage. Carry‑out stocks are forecast at 0.70 Mt while prices are expected to range from $490‑530/t for 2020‑21.

Flaxseed (excluding solin) [a]: May 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 347 379 381
Area harvested (kha) 342 339 355
Yield (t/ha) 1.44 1.43 1.50
Production (kt) 492 486 530
Imports (kt) [b] 9 15 10
Total supply (kt) 628 561 610
Exports (kt) [c] 468 350 500
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 0 0 0
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 83 125 20
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 100 141 40
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 60 70 70
Average Price ($/t) [g] 496 510-540 490-530
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Flaxseed (No.1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • n/a: not available
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Soybeans

For 2019‑20, supplies are estimated at 7.1 Mt, down from last year’s 9.2 Mt on sharply lower production and imports. As of April 30th, the US had accumulated exports of 47,600 tonnes of soybeans into Canada since September 1st, compared to 684,100 t for the same period last year. Canadian exports are forecast to decline to 4.3Mt, versus 5.6 Mt last year, on tighter domestic supplies. Canadian soybean crush is expected to fall by 13%, to 1.8 Mt, as some processors switch to crushing canola. Carry‑out stocks are estimated at 0.3 Mt, while soybean prices are forecast modestly higher at $400‑430/t versus $406/t for 2018‑19.

The factors to watch are:

  1. US planting progress and crop conditions,
  2. the impact of COVID‑19 on world soybean consumption and trade,
  3. South American soybean export pace,
  4. China’s import pace and
  5. Canadian planting conditions.

For 2020‑21, farmers intend to plant 2.11 Mha to soybeans according to Statistics Canada estimates generated from farmer surveys. The 0.2 MHa drop from last year is due to a combination of steady prices, difficult harvest conditions over the past few years and uncertainty over returns. Production is forecast at 6.1 Mt, vs 6.0 Mt in 2019‑20 and 7.4 Mt in 2018‑19, assuming five‑year average yields.

Total supply is forecast to decrease slightly, to 6.9 Mt, as the sharp drop in carry‑in stocks more than offsets the slight rise in production and imports. Exports are forecast at 4.2 Mt to a number of countries. Domestic processing is forecast up slightly at 1.9 Mt as crushers return to a normal processing pace. Carry‑out stocks are forecast at 0.30 Mt unchanged from 0.30 Mt for 2019‑20 and down from the 0.70 Mt carried out in 2018‑19. Soybean prices are forecast to increase slightly to $410‑450/t on support from stronger US prices.

For 2020‑21, the outlook for US soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports and lower ending stocks, says the USDA. The United States Department of Agriculture projects soybean production at 4.124 billion bushels, up 16% from last year on higher harvested area and assuming trend yields. Total supplies are projected to increase by 5%, to 4.72 billion bushels despite lower beginning stocks.

The USDA projects total 2020‑21 soybean crush at 2.13 billion bushels on support from higher domestic consumption while US soybean exports are forecast to rise by 375 million bushels from the revised 2019‑20 forecast to 2.05 billion bushels. Ending stocks are projected at 405 million bushels, down 175 million bushels from the revised 2019‑20 estimate. The 2020‑21 US season average soybean price is forecast at US$8.20 a bushel, a drop of 30 cents a bushel from 2019‑20.

The global oilseed outlook is for larger supplies as record production more than offsets lower carry‑in stocks. World 2020‑21 oilseed production is projected at a record 605.9 Mt by the USDA, up 30.7 Mt from 2019‑20 mainly due to higher soybean production. World soybean production is forecast at 362.8 Mt, up 30.7 Mt year on year. World trade in soybeans is expected to increase 8.0 Mt, to 161.9 Mt, while ending stocks decline 1.9 Mt, to 96 Mt.

Soybeans [a] : May 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 2,558 2,313 2,112
Area harvested (kha) 2,540 2,271 2,102
Yield (t/ha) 2.92 2.66 2.89
Production (kt) 7,417 6,045 6,075
Imports (kt) [b] 1,131 400 500
Total supply (kt) 9,199 7,145 6,875
Exports (kt) [c] 5,640 4,300 4,200
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 2,058 1,800 1,900
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 563 495 275
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 2,859 2,545 2,375
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 700 300 300
Average Price ($/t) [g] 406 400-430 410-450
  • [a] Crop year is September-August.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Soybeans (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019, imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC but will be available from STC on October 4 2018. For 2019-2020[f], area, yield and production are from the STC survey but imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada
Total Oilseeds : May 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 12,137 11,172 10,836
Area harvested (kha) 12,001 10,929 10,714
Yield (t/ha) 2.35 2.30 2.36
Production (kt) 28,252 25,180 25,330
Imports (kt) [b] 1,286 565 610
Total supply (kt) 32,822 30,336 28,910
Exports (kt) [c] 15,310 14,250 14,200
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 11,354 11,550 11,150
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 1,252 1,249 619
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 12,921 13,115 12,040
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 4,591 2,970 2,670
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada
Total Grains and Oilseeds : May 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 27,820 27,568 27,569
Area harvested (kha) 26,861 26,094 26,231
Yield (t/ha) 3.22 3.30 3.37
Production (kt) 86,584 86,077 88,418
Imports (kt) [b] 4,043 2,167 2,062
Total supply (kt) 105,206 102,166 103,700
Exports (kt) [c] 46,891 43,053 45,215
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 44,393 45,892 44,095
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 13,922 13,220 14,390
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Pulses and special crops

Dry peas

For 2019‑20, dry pea supply is slightly higher than the previous year at 4.6 million tonnes (Mt). Canada’s exports are forecast to rise to 3.65 Mt, up from the 2018‑19 level. Steady exports to India and Bangladesh have been augmented by the record export pace to China. Canadian exports to the US for the year‑to‑date (August‑March) are lower than for the same period last year due to the near record US dry pea crop. As a result of larger domestic supply and higher exports, carry‑out stocks in Canada are expected to be marginally lower than the previous year at 0.3 Mt.

The average price is expected to be unchanged from 2018‑19, due to higher yellow and green pea prices being offset by lower feed pea prices. Green dry peas prices are expected to maintain a crop year premium of $130/t over yellow dry peas, similar to 2018‑19. During the month of April, Saskatchewan yellow pea farmgate prices rose $20/t and green pea farmgate prices rose $35/t. This is largely due to stronger world demand resulting from the COVID‑19 pandemic.

For 2020‑21, producers intend to leave seeded area in Canada relatively unchanged at 1.73 million hectares (Mha), marginally lower than 2019‑20. This would be the second largest Canadian dry pea area on record and is largely due to good returns relative to other crops and the continued recognition of the benefits of dry peas as part of crop rotation plan. By province, Saskatchewan is expected to account for 53% of the dry pea area, Alberta 41%, with the remainder seeded across Canada.

Production is forecast to rise marginally to nearly 4.3 Mt due to average yields but lower area seeded. Supply is forecast to be relatively unchanged at 4.6 Mt due to similar carry‑in stocks. Exports are expected to be lower than 2019‑20 at 3.4 Mt and carry‑out stocks are forecast to increase. The average price is expected to be similar to slightly lower in 2019‑20 due to increased domestic and world supply.

In the US, area seeded to dry peas for 2020‑21 is forecast by the USDA to fall by 12% to 0.97 million acres (Mac). This is largely due to a decrease in expected area in North Dakota.

Dry Peas [a]: May 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,463 1,753 1,732
Area harvested (kha) 1,431 1,711 1,700
Yield (t/ha) 2.50 2.48 2.51
Production (kt) 3,581 4,237 4,275
Imports (kt) [b] 62 72 60
Total supply (kt) 4,291 4,621 4,635
Exports (b) 3,270 3,650 3,400
Total Domestic Use (c) 708 671 760
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 312 300 475
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 8 7 11
Average Price (d) 270 255-285 250-280
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2019-2020[f] and the years before 2019-2020[f], area, yield and production are from STC. For the years before 2019-2020[f], imports, exports, seed requirements and carry-out stocks are from STC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Lentils

For 2019‑20, Canada’s lentil supply is nearly 2.9 Mt and exports are forecast to rise from 2018‑19 to 2.2 Mt. The main markets continue to be Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and India. Carry‑out stocks are forecast to fall sharply to 0.3 Mt.

The average price of lentils in Canada is forecast to rise sharply from levels recorded for the previous year largely due to strong import demand, particularly from Turkey and India. Large green lentil prices are forecast to have a $95/t premium over red lentil prices for the entire crop year, compared to an $85/t premium to red lentils in 2018‑19. During the month of April, Saskatchewan large green lentil farmgate prices rose $150/t while red lentil farmgate prices increased $125/t.

For 2020‑21, producers intend to leave the area seeded to lentils in Canada marginally lower at 1.5 Mha. By province, Saskatchewan is expected to account for 90% of the lentil area, with the remainder seeded in Alberta and Manitoba.

Production is forecast to fall marginally to 2.15 Mt and supply is expected to decrease to 2.5 Mt, mostly due to smaller carry‑in stocks. Exports are expected to be lower at 2.0 Mt. Carry‑out stocks are forecast to fall to below 0.2 Mt. The average price is forecast to increase from 2019‑20, with the assumption of an average grade distribution and with higher prices for No.1 red and green lentils grades.

In the US, the area seeded to lentils for 2020‑21 is forecast by the USDA at 0.47 Mac, marginally lower than in 2019‑20, as lower area seeded in North Dakota is partly offset by higher area in Montana.

Lentils [a]: May 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,525 1,530 1,501
Area harvested (kha) 1,499 1,489 1,475
Yield (t/ha) 1.40 1.46 1.46
Production (kt) 2,092 2,167 2,150
Imports (kt) [b] 51 85 50
Total supply (kt) 3,016 2,883 2,500
Exports (b) 2,033 2,200 2,000
Total Domestic Use (c) 352 383 350
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 631 300 150
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 26 12 6
Average Price (d) 390 465-495 500-530
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2019-2020[f] and the years before 2019-2020[f], area, yield and production are from STC. For the years before 2019-2020[f], imports, exports, seed requirements and carry-out stocks are from STC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Dry beans

For 2019‑20, dry bean exports are forecast to increase slightly due to the higher supply situation compared to the previous year. The US and the EU remain the main markets for Canadian dry beans, with smaller volumes exported to Japan and Angola. The late harvest affected the quality of the Canadian supply. As a result, carry‑out stocks are expected to be of lower quality. Tight North American carry‑out stocks of canning quality dry beans is expected to continue to support US and Canadian dry bean prices for 2019‑20. To‑date (August‑April), Canadian white pea bean prices have averaged over 15% higher, black beans are unchanged and pinto bean prices are 30% higher, than 2018‑19 levels.

For 2020‑21, the area seeded in Canada is forecast to fall by 18% from 2019‑20 to 131 Kha despite higher returns from the previous year. By province, Ontario is expected to account for 47% of the dry bean area, Manitoba 36%, Alberta 16%, with the remainder in Saskatchewan, Quebec and the Maritimes.

Production is expected to decrease to about 290 thousand tonnes (Kt), but even with higher carry‑in stocks, supply is expected to fall. Exports are forecast to fall marginally and stocks are expected to decrease. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to fall sharply due to expectations for an increase in North American supply.

In the US, area seeded to dry beans is forecast by the USDA to increase by 7% to 1.37 Mac, mostly in Nebraska and North Dakota.

Dry Beans [a]: May 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 143 160 131
Area harvested (kha) 137 150 126
Yield (t/ha) 2.49 2.11 2.30
Production (kt) 341 317 290
Imports (kt) [b] 98 83 85
Total supply (kt) 464 479 465
Exports (b) 348 350 345
Total Domestic Use (c) 37 39 40
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 80 90 80
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 21 23 21
Average Price (d) 815 960-990 790-820
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Chickpeas

For 2019‑20, the chickpea supply is higher than the previous year. Canadian chickpea exports are expected to decrease sharply to 125 Kt, largely due to lower exports to Pakistan, one of Canada’s largest markets. Carry‑out stocks are expected to rise significantly as the decrease in export demand has compounded with the increase in supply compared to the previous year. The average price is forecast to be unchanged from 2018‑19, largely due to a large increase in North American and world supply.

For 2020‑21, the area seeded is expected to fall significantly from 2019‑20 due to sharply lower returns from the previous year compared to other pulse crops. By province, Saskatchewan is expected to account for a significant portion of the chickpea area, with the remainder seeded in Alberta.

Production is forecast to fall to 170 Kt, assuming a return to average yields higher than the previous year. Supply is forecast to fall compared to 2019‑20. Exports are forecast to be similar compared to the previous year. Carry‑out stocks are expected to decrease but remain burdensome. The average price is forecast to be lower than 2019‑20.

US chickpea area for 2020‑21 is forecast by the USDA to fall to 0.31 Mac, down 32% from 2019‑20. This is largely due to an expected fall in area in Idaho, North Dakota and Washington.

Chickpeas [a]: May 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 179 159 103
Area harvested (kha) 176 156 100
Yield (t/ha) 1.77 1.61 1.70
Production (kt) 311 252 170
Imports (kt) [b] 51 52 50
Total supply (kt) 376 404 360
Exports (b) 147 125 125
Total Domestic Use (c) 129 139 135
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 100 140 100
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 36 53 38
Average Price (d) 480 465-495 455-485
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Mustard seed

For 2019‑20, the mustard seed supply is 214 Kt, down from 2018‑19. Canadian mustard exports are forecast at 115 Kt, marginally lower than the previous year. The US and the EU remain the main export markets for Canadian mustard seed. Carry‑out stocks are forecast to fall. Prices are forecast to rise due to decreasing carry‑out stocks.

For 2020‑21, the area seeded is expected to be relatively unchanged due to higher prices from the previous year. Saskatchewan and Alberta account for 71% and 29% of the area seeded, respectively. Production is forecast to rise marginally to 140 Kt due to lower abandonment and trend yields. However, due to smaller carry‑in stocks, supply is expected to be lower. Exports are expected to remain unchanged and carry‑out stocks are forecast to be lower than in 2019‑20. The average price is forecast to decrease from 2019‑20.

Mustard Seed [a]: May 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 204 161 160
Area harvested (kha) 197 155 155
Yield (t/ha) 0.88 0.87 0.90
Production (kt) 174 135 140
Imports (kt) [b] 8 7 8
Total supply (kt) 235 214 203
Exports (b) 121 115 115
Total Domestic Use (c) 42 44 43
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 73 55 45
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 45 35 28
Average Price (d) 690 700-730 680-710
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020[f] which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Canary seed

For 2019‑20, supply is at 158 Kt, down 9% from the previous year. Exports are expected to be slightly higher than last year. The EU and Mexico are the main markets, followed by the South American region, mostly Brazil. The average price is forecast to rise sharply from 2018‑19 due to tight carry‑out stocks.

For 2020‑21, producers intend to increase the area seeded due to more competitive returns relative to other crops. Production is expected to increase to 155 Kt with a return to trend yields. Supply is forecast to tighten due to lower carry‑in stocks. Exports are expected to decrease and carry‑out stocks are expected to remain tight. The average price is forecast to be lower than the 2019‑20 level.

Canary Seed [a]: May 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 109 104 112
Area harvested (kha) 109 99 110
Yield (t/ha) 1.45 1.49 1.41
Production (kt) 158 148 155
Imports (kt) [b] 0 0 0
Total supply (kt) 174 158 155
Exports (b) 156 158 150
Total Domestic Use (c) 7 0 5
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 11 0 0
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 7 0 0
Average Price (d) 505 610-640 540-570
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020[f] which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Sunflower seed

For 2019‑20, supply is higher than the previous year. Sunflower seed exports are forecast to be higher than the previous year at 34 Kt due to higher import demand from the US. The US is the top export market, followed by Japan and Costa Rica which import small volumes. Carry‑out stocks are expected to rise marginally.

The average price for sunflower seed in Canada is forecast to rise from 2018‑19 due to higher oil type sunflower seed prices.

For 2020‑21, area seeded is expected to rise to the largest area in 10 years due to good returns compared to the previous year. Production is forecast to be lower at 85 Kt, assuming average yields. Supply is expected to rise to a record 209 Kt. Exports are forecast to fall due to expectations for a larger US crop and as a result, carry‑out stocks are forecast to increase. The average price is forecast to fall from 2019‑20 due to expectations for an increase in North American sunflower seed supply.

The area seeded to sunflower in the US for 2020‑21 is forecast by the USDA to rise to 1.56 Mac, up 15% from 2018‑19. Sharply higher area seeded in South Dakota is expected to combine with increased area in other US states. The area seeded to oil type varieties is expected to increase to nearly 1.4 Mac and the area seeded to confectionery type varieties is forecast to rise to 0.2 Mac.

Sunflower Seed [a]: May 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 29 31 42
Area harvested (kha) 27 29 41
Yield (t/ha) 2.13 2.18 2.07
Production (kt) 57 63 85
Imports (kt) [b] 24 26 24
Total supply (kt) 179 185 209
Exports (b) 26 34 30
Total Domestic Use (c) 56 51 59
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 96 100 120
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 116 118 135
Average Price (d) 585 590-620 575-605
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020[f] which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Total Pulses and Special Crops [a]: May 22, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 3,652 3,897 3,780
Area harvested (kha) 3,576 3,788 3,707
Yield (t/ha) 1.88 1.93 1.96
Production (kt) 6,714 7,317 7,265
Imports (kt) [b] 293 325 277
Total supply (kt) 8,734 8,944 8,527
Exports (b) 6,101 6,632 6,165
Total Domestic Use (c) 1,331 1,327 1,392
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,302 985 970
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC and STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Historical data

Historical principal field crops data are available in spreadsheet format and can be obtained by emailing aafc.bulletin.aac@canada.ca. Please specify crops, crop years, and preferred file format in your request.

Report a problem on this page
Please select all that apply:

Date modified: