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Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops, 2020-03-19

Canada: Outlook for Field Crops (PDF Version, 230 KB)

Historical Data

This report is an update of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) February outlook report for the 2019-20 crop year and provides AAFC’s preliminary look at the upcoming 2020-21 crop year. This report incorporates recent information from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) on the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and the USDA Outlook conference.

For 2019-20, total exports are expected to be almost 55 percent of total production and reach about 50 million tonnes (Mt), of which 87 percent is grains and oilseeds (G&O) and 13 percent is pulses and special crops (P&SC). Total exports are about 5 percent lower than the 2018-19 crop year as lower exports of wheat, corn and oilseeds more-than outweigh higher exports of peas, and to a lesser extent, lentils. Total domestic use is forecast at about 46.5 Mt, about 50 percent of production, of which 97 percent is G&O and 3 percent is P&SC. Total carry-out stocks are forecast to reach 14.8 Mt, slightly lower than last year, but same as the 10-year average. In general, world grain prices are expected to continue to be pressured downward by abundant supplies of grains at the global level. World and Canadian grain markets are expected to be impacted by COVID-19, but the full effect will not be known for some time.

For 2020-21, rotation considerations, moisture conditions, expected prices, input costs and delivery opportunities are expected to play a crucial role in determining actual seeding decisions in the spring. However, based on current market conditions and historical trends, the area seeded to field crops in Canada is forecast to increase marginally from 2019-20. The area seeded to wheat and coarse grains is expected to increase slightly, while the area seeded to oilseeds decreases. In general, average yields are forecast to increase compared to 2019-20 because excessive moisture conditions in some areas reduced yields last year. The production of grains and oilseeds (G&O) and pulses and special crops (P&SC) is forecast to increase modestly so that total field crop production is expected to expand by 2 percent to 95.3 Mt. In general, abundant supplies of grains at the world level are expected to pressure world grain prices but grain prices in Canada will continue to be supported by the relatively low value of the Canadian dollar.

Total Grains and Oilseeds: March 19, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 27,820 27,568 27,731
Area harvested (kha) 26,861 26,094 26,469
Yield (t/ha) 3.22 3.30 3.32
Production (kt) 86,584 85,997 87,949
Imports (kt) 4,199 2,442 2,602
Total supply (kt) 105,363 102,361 104,221
Exports (kt) 46,840 43,620 45,840
Total Domestic Use (kt) 44,601 45,071 43,716
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 13,922 13,670 14,665
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Total Pulses and Special Crops: March 19, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 3,652 3,892 3,856
Area harvested (kha) 3,576 3,783 3,774
Yield (t/ha) 1.88 1.93 1.96
Production (kt) 6,714 7,317 7,380
Imports (kt) 293 322 278
Total supply (kt) 8,734 8,949 8,823
Exports (kt) 6,097 6,381 6,076
Total Domestic Use (kt) 1,327 1,403 1,447
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,310 1,165 1,300
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
All Principal Field Crops: March 19, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha)

31,472

31,460

31,587

Area harvested (kha)

30,437

29,877

30,243

Yield (t/ha)

3.07

3.12

3.15

Production (kt)

93,298

93,314

95,329

Imports (kt)

4,492

2,764

2,880

Total supply (kt)

114,097

111,309

113,044

Exports (kt)

52,937

50,001

51,916

Total Domestic Use (kt)

45,928

46,473

45,163

Carry-out Stocks (kt)

15,232

14,835

15,965

  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat

Durum

For 2019-20, Canadian durum production decreased by 13% from 2018-19 to 4.98 million tonnes (Mt). About 3% of the durum area remained to be harvested at the start of winter, according to provincial crop reports. The durum which will be harvested during the winter and spring is expected to be low quality and some may not be harvested.

Total supply decreased by 5%, as the lower production was partly offset by higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to increase by 6% to 4.8 Mt due to stronger demand resulting from a decrease in world production. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 50% from 2018-19 to 0.9 Mt, 37% lower than the past five-year average of 1.43 Mt.

The average quality of the durum harvested before winter in terms of grades is lower than for 2018-19, which was exceptionally good quality crop, but near the past five year average. According to the Canadian Grain Commission’s sample survey analysis to January 29, 2020, 49% of the durum was graded No. 1 and 2 and another 41% graded No. 3 and 4. The protein content averaged 13.7%, lower than for 2018-19, but better than the past five-year average.

World durum production fell by 3 Mt from 2018-19 to 34 Mt, while supply decreased by 2.4 Mt to 43.5 Mt, according to the International Grains Council (IGC). Use is expected to be stable at 36.4 Mt. Carry out stocks are forecast to fall by 2.4 Mt to 7.2 Mt, the lowest since 2012-13. US durum production fell by 0.66 Mt from 2018-19 to 1.46 Mt, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The average Canadian crop year producer price for durum is forecast to rise from 2018-19 due to lower world, Canadian and US supply.

For 2020-21, the area seeded to durum in Canada is forecast to increase by 15% from 2019-20 because of relatively good prices and low carry-out stocks for 2019-20. Production is forecast to rise by 19% to 5.9 Mt as the increase in seeded area is compounded by higher trend yields. Supply is projected to be stable as the higher production is offset by lower carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to be stable. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise by 11% to 1 Mt.

World durum production is forecast to increase by 1.8 Mt from 2019-20 to 35.8 Mt due to higher seeded area and assuming normal yields. Supply is expected to fall by 0.5 Mt to 43 Mt because of lower carry-in stocks. Use is expected to be stable at 36.4 Mt, while carry-out stocks fall by 0.6 Mt to 6.6 Mt. US durum production is forecast to rise by 0.25 Mt to 1.71 Mt.

The average Canadian crop year producer price for durum is forecast to fall from 2019-20 due to higher production at the world, Canadian and US levels.

Durum [a]: March 19, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 2,503 1,980 2,280
Area harvested (kha) 2,456 1,902 2,235
Yield (t/ha) 2.34 2.62 2.64
Production (kt) 5,745 4,977 5,900
Imports (kt) [b] 24 80 40
Total supply (kt) 7,245 6,849 6,840
Exports (kt) [c] 4,526 4,800 4,800
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 204 210 210
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 532 720 611
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 927 1,149 1,040
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,792 900 1,000
Average Price ($/t) [g] 235 255-275 240-270
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Crop year average prices: Wheat (No.1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No.1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices. Barley (No. 1 feed, cash, I/S Lethbridge), Corn (No.2 CE, cash, I/S Chatham), Oats (US No. 2 Heavy, CBOT nearby futures); Rye (No. 1 CW, cash, I/S Saskatoon); Canola (No. 1 Canada, cash, Track Vancouver); Flaxseed (No. 1 CW, cash, I/S Saskatoon); Soybeans (No. 2 CE, cash, I/S Chatham)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat (excluding durum)

For 2019-20, Canadian wheat production rose by 3.5% from 2018-19 to 27.4 Mt. About 7% of the spring wheat area in Western Canada remained to be harvested at the start of winter, based on provincial crop reports. The spring wheat harvested during the winter and spring is expected to be low quality and a significant portion may not be harvested.

Production by class of wheat, with 2018-19 production in brackets, is estimated at:

The average quality for CWRS wheat harvested before winter in terms of grades is lower than for 2018-19, but better than the past five-year average. According to the Canadian Grain Commission’s sample survey analysis to January 29, 2020, 72% of the CWRS wheat graded No. 1 and 2 and another 17% graded No. 3. The protein content averaged 13.3%, lower than for 2018-19 and the past five-year average.

Total supply fell marginally, as lower carry-in stocks more than offset the increase in production. Exports are forecast to fall by 8% to 18.2 Mt, due to more competition from other exporters because of higher world production. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by 18% to 5 Mt, but only 1% higher than the past five-year average of 4.96 Mt. The export forecast was reduced by 0.2 Mt from the February report based on the pace of exports for the first seven months of the crop year.

World all wheat (including durum) production increased by 33 Mt to 764 Mt, while the supply increased by 27 Mt to 1,042 Mt, according to USDA. Total use is expected to increase by 18 Mt to 755 Mt. World all wheat carry-out stocks are forecast to rise by 10 Mt to 287 Mt or, if stocks in China are not included, stocks would increase by 1 Mt to 139 Mt. Chinese wheat stocks are seldom exported.

US all wheat production rose by 1 Mt from 2018-19 to 52.3 Mt, according to USDA. Supply is 0.4 Mt lower at 84.5 Mt. Domestic use and exports are each forecast to increase by 1.7 Mt. Carry out stocks are forecast to decrease by 3.8 Mt to 25.6 Mt.

Average Canadian producer prices for wheat for the crop year are forecast to fall from 2018-19 because of the higher world supply.

For 2020-21, Canadian area seeded to wheat is forecast to be nearly the same as for 2019-20 as a 17% increase in the winter wheat area is expected to be offset by a 1% decrease for the spring wheat area. Production is projected to rise by 2% to 28 Mt. The winter wheat production is projected to increase by 60% to 2.7 Mt due to higher seeded area and assuming a return to normal abandonment rate. Spring wheat production is expected to fall by 1% to 25.3 Mt.

Supply is forecast to increase by 4% because of higher carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to rise by 5%. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by 16% to 5.8 Mt.

World all wheat production is forecast to fall by 4 Mt from 2019-20 to 760 Mt while supply increases by 5 Mt due to higher carry-in stocks. Total use is expected to rise by 8 Mt to 763 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 3 Mt to 284 Mt. Excluding China, carry-out stocks are projected to decrease by 5 Mt to 134 Mt.

US all wheat production is forecast to fall by 2.3 Mt from 2019-20 to 50 Mt, according to USDA’s Grains and Oilseeds Outlook. Imports are forecast to increase by 0.9 Mt. Supply of all wheat is projected to fall by 5.1 Mt to 79.4 Mt. Exports are forecast to be stable, while domestic use decreases by 0.7 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 4.4 Mt to 21.2 Mt. The USDA is forecasting the average farm price for all wheat at US$4.90/bu, up 8% from US$4.55/bu for 2019-20.

Average Canadian producer prices for wheat for the crop year are forecast to rise from 2019-20 because of the lower US supply and carry-out stocks.

Wheat Except Durum [a]: March 19, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 7,570 8,145 8,150
Area harvested (kha) 7,425 7,754 7,920
Yield 3.56 3.53 3.54
Production (kt) 26,456 27,371 28,000
Imports (b) 95 100 100
Total supply (kt) 31,807 31,718 33,100
Exports (kt) [c] 19,762 18,200 19,200
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 3,294 3,350 3,380
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 3,669 4,333 3,883
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 7,797 8,518 8,100
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 4,247 5,000 5,800
Average Price ($/t) [g] 245 215-235 220-250
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Crop year average prices: Wheat (No.1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No.1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices and are not comparable to CWB pool returns for previous years.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
All Wheat [a]: March 19, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 10,073 10,125 10,430
Area harvested (kha) 9,881 9,656 10,155
Yield (t/ha) 3.26 3.35 3.34
Production (kt) 32,201 32,348 33,900
Imports (kt) [b] 119 180 140
Total supply (kt) 39,052 38,568 39,940
Exports (kt) [c] 24,288 23,000 24,000
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 3,498 3,560 3,590
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 4,201 5,053 4,494
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 8,724 9,668 9,140
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 6,040 5,900 6,800
  • [a] Crop year is August-July
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Coarse grains

Barley

For 2019-20, total supply of barley increased by 17% from 2018-19 due to higher production despite historically low carry-in stocks. Domestic use is expected to increase significantly, due to higher feed use. Exports are expected to increase slightly due to higher exports of barley products. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise sharply from last year due to higher supply.

The average price of feed barley is expected to be lower than 2018-19, due to increased supply in Canada, the US and around the world.

In the US, barley production increased by 12%, however total supply increased by only 6%, due to a decline in carry-in stocks according to the USDA. Imports are expected to increase by more than half of the level of last year. Total use is expected to increase by 2% and carry-out stocks are expected to increase by 12%. The average farm price of barley in the US is expected to rise by US$0.03/bushel (bu) to US$4.65/bu from last year.

World barley production and supply in 2019-20 increased to its highest level in the recent two decades. Barley production increased in the major exporting countries, including the EU, Russia, Ukraine and Australia. World trade is expected to rise due to higher supply and forecasts for increased imports from Saudi Arabia, China and Morocco. Total consumption is anticipated to grow. Carry-out stocks are expected to increase from 2018-19.

For 2020-21, the area seeded to barley in Canada is forecast to decrease due to the sharp increase in carry-in stocks and expectations for lower prices. Barley prices in 2019-20 have decreased from last year but are still good relative to prices in the past few years, which will limit the decline in area seeded. Production is forecast to decrease by 8% from last year, using the five-year (2015-16 to 2019-20) average for area harvested and yields. Supply is forecast to be similar to 2019-20. Domestic use is anticipated to decrease slightly on a marginal decline in feed use. Exports are expected to be stable. As a result, carry-out stocks are forecast to rise slightly from 2019-20.

The average price of feed barley is expected to drop from 2019-20 due to higher supplies in Canada and the world, as well as lower corn prices in the US.

US barley production is forecast by the USDA to decrease by 3% due to lower area seeded/harvested and lower average yields. However, supply is expected to increase by 4% due to the continuous increase in carry-in stocks and imports. Total use is expected to increase by 6%, while carry-out stocks are forecast to be unchanged. The average farm price of barley in the US is expected to drop by US$0.35/bu to US$4.30/bu from 2019-20.

At the world level, the International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts that the barley supply, consumption and carry-out stocks will increase in 2020-21. This is expected to pressure world barley prices.

Barley [a]: March 19, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 2,628 2,996 2,900
Area harvested (kha) 2,395 2,728 2,580
Yield (t/ha) 3.50 3.81 3.69
Production (kt) 8,380 10,383 9,520
Imports (kt) [b] 43 40 40
Total supply (kt) 9,667 11,285 11,260
Exports (kt) [c] 3,068 3,150 3,150
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 104 116 116
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 5,375 6,069 5,963
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 5,737 6,435 6,310
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 863 1,700 1,800
Average Price ($/t) [g] 260 210-240 200-230
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Barley (No.1 feed, cash, in-store Lethbridge).
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Corn

For 2019-20, total supply of corn in Canada decreased by 10% as a result of lower carry-in stocks, production and imports.

Corn imports for 2019-20 are expected to decrease due to a major decrease in imports of corn into Western Canada, more-than offsetting the slight increase in imports to Eastern Canada. Corn imports, for the crop year to January 2020, dropped by 62% to 350 thousand tonnes (Kt) for Western Canada. However, imports rose by 91% to 380 Kt for Eastern Canada.

Exports for the current crop year are expected to decrease, as a result of low supplies and the slow pace of export sales to-date. For the crop year to January 2020, corn exports declined by 83%, as exports to the EU countries fell sharply.

Total domestic use is expected to decrease largely due to the reduction in industrial use and feed use. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall largely due to smaller supplies.

The average price of corn for 2019-20 is expected to be higher than last year due to the expected increase in the US corn price and a significant decline in the domestic corn supply.

US corn production for 2019-20 decreased by 5% from 2018-19 largely due to a decline in yields. The average on-farm price for corn in the US is forecast to increase to US$3.80/bu from US$3.61/bu last year. Corn production in other major world exporters, including Brazil, Argentina, Russia and Ukraine, remains abundant, which will put pressure on corn prices.

For 2020-21, the area seeded to corn in Canada is forecast to decrease by only 2% from 2019-20 due to good prices and expectations for strong demand. Production is forecast to increase by 3%, largely due to higher yields. Imports are expected to increase. As a result, supply is projected to rise by 2%. Domestic use is projected to rise slightly due to increased feed use. Given the increase in domestic supplies and continued strong global demand, exports are expected to increase. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise due to good supply.

The average price of corn in Canada is expected to drop following forecasts for lower corn prices in the US for 2020-21.

The USDA projects that US corn acreage for 2020-21 will rise by 5%, which, combined with forecasts for higher area harvested and improved yields, will increase US corn production by 13%. Supplies are projected to increase by 9%. Uses for animal feed, ethanol production and exports are anticipated to rise. Ending stocks are expected to increase by 39%. The US corn price is projected to fall to US$3.60/bu from US$3.80/bu in the previous year.

Area seeded to corn for 2020-21 at the world level is forecast to increase, according to the IGC, and world production is expected to set a new record. Total use of corn around the world is expected to continue its upward trend in 2020-21 and is projected to grow to a record level, driven by demand in China and Brazil. In the EU, total supply of corn is expected to fall due to lower carry-in stocks, in spite of higher production and imports. Total use is projected to rise. As a result of lower supplies and higher consumption, carry-out stocks of corn in the EU are expected to decrease.

Corn [a]: March 19, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,468 1,496 1,460
Area harvested (kha) 1,431 1,451 1,420
Yield (t/ha) 9.70 9.24 9.75
Production (kt) 13,885 13,404 13,850
Imports (kt) [b] 2,739 1,700 1,800
Total supply (kt) 19,040 17,087 17,450
Exports (kt) [c] 1,617 1,000 1,200
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 5,786 5,300 5,300
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 9,638 8,971 9,034
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 15,440 14,287 14,350
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,983 1,800 1,900
Average Price ($/t) [g] 194 190-220 180-210
  • [a] Crop year is September-August.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Corn (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham).
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019, imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC but will be available from STC on October 4 2018. For 2019-2020[f], area, yield and production are from the STC survey but imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Oats

For 2019-20, total supply of oats in Canada increased by 8%, as the increase in production is partly offset by the decrease in carry-in stocks. Domestic use is expected to increase by 5% on higher supply. Exports of oats, including grain and products, are anticipated to rise by 5% due to increased supply and solid export sales. Carry-out stocks are expected to increase significantly due to increased supply, but will remain low.

The average provincial price of oats in the Prairie Provinces is currently strong. The 2019-20 cumulative average price to-date in Alberta is 9% higher than for the same period for 2018-19, 2% higher for Saskatchewan and 5% higher for Manitoba. The average oat futures price on the Chicago Board of Trade increased by 7%. Throughout the crop year, oat prices are expected to increase only slightly from last year, as oat prices are showing downward trends.

US oat supply for 2019-20 increased by 1% from 2018-19 as higher imports offset lower production and carry-in stocks. Total use is forecast to increase by 3% due to higher feed use. Carry-out stocks are projected to decline by 2%. The US oat price for 2019-20 is projected to rise by 11% to US$2.95/bu.

Oat production for 2019-20 in the world major exporting countries, including the EU and Australia, increased. World total use is projected to increase by 2%, while total carry-out stocks are anticipated to increase by 19%.

For 2020-21, the area seeded to oats in Canada is forecast to increase by about 9%, mainly due to good prices and strong demand. This will be the highest level since 2009. Production is forecast to increase by 5%, as higher area harvested, more-than offsets lower yields. Supply is projected to increase by 8%, owing to higher carry-in stocks and production. Domestic use is expected to increase due to higher feed use. Exports are anticipated to remain unchanged. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise due to increased supply.

The average price of oats for 2020-21 is expected to be lower than 2019-20 due to higher supply in Canada, the US and the world, as well as a lower US corn price forecast for 2020-21.

In the US, oat production is forecast by the USDA to increase by 24% due to a 3% increase in area seeded combined with higher area harvested and improved average yield. Supply is projected to rise by only 6%, owing to forecasts for lower carry-in stocks and unchanged imports. Total use is expected to increase by 4% and carry-out stocks are projected to increase by 16%. The US oat price is projected to fall by 15% to US$2.50/bu.

At the world level, the IGC forecasts that the supply of oats in 2020-21 will continue to grow due to higher carry-in stocks and higher production. Total use will increase by 1% and carry-out stocks are projected to increase by 12%.

Oats [a]: March 19, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,235 1,459 1,590
Area harvested (kha) 1,005 1,160 1,250
Yield (t/ha) 3.42 3.58 3.50
Production (kt) 3,436 4,157 4,380
Imports (kt) [b] 10 10 10
Total supply (kt) 4,225 4,564 4,940
Exports (kt) [c] 2,475 2,600 2,600
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 186 190 190
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 1,046 1,091 1,139
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 1,353 1,414 1,440
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 397 550 900
Average Price ($/t) [g] 254 240-270 205-235
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Oats (US No.2 Heavy, Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) nearby futures)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Rye

For 2019-20, the total supply of rye increased by only 6% from 2018-19, as most of the increase in production was offset by a significant drop in carry-in stocks. Domestic use is expected to reduce slightly as the drop in feed use will only be partially offset by a rise in seed use. Exports are forecast to increase due to improved supply and solid need for exports. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise due to increased supply.

The current rye prices at Saskatchewan and Manitoba elevators are lower than they were a year ago but still strong. For 2019-20, the rye price is anticipated to decrease by 11% from 2018-19 to an average of $210/t.

The US is the main importer of Canadian rye. The supply of rye in the US for 2019-20 increased by only 7 Kt. However, total consumption is projected to increase by 48 Kt, which will result in lower ending stocks of rye in the US and should support Canadian exports of rye to the US.

For 2020-21, the area seeded to winter rye in Canada increased by 32% from 2019-20, as a result of relatively good prices, strong exports and tight carry-in stocks. Production is forecast to increase by almost 30% to 429 Kt, using the previous five-year average yield. Supply is expected to increase by about 26% to 485 Kt. Exports, domestic use and carry-out stocks are forecast to rise due to improved supplies.

The average price of rye is expected to decrease from 2019-20 due to higher supply in Canada and the world.

At the world level, the IGC forecasts that the supply of rye in 2020-21 will grow by 5% due to higher carry-in stocks. Production is projected to be the same as 2019-20. Although total use is anticipated to increase slightly, carry-out stocks are also expected to increase by about 20%.

Rye [a]: March 19, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 136 175 231
Area harvested (kha) 79 103 147
Yield (t/ha) 2.99 3.25 2.92
Production (kt) 236 333 429
Imports (kt) [b] 2 2 2
Total supply (kt) 363 384 485
Exports (kt) [c] 146 170 190
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 19 19 20
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 134 119 185
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 167 159 220
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 49 55 75
Average Price ($/t) [g] 236 195-225 170-200
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Rye (No.1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada
Mixed Grains [a]: March 19, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 144 145 140
Area harvested (kha) 69 68 60
Yield (t/ha) 2.82 2.84 2.83
Production (kt) 195 192 170
Imports (kt) [b] 0 0 0
Total supply (kt) 195 192 170
Exports (kt) [c] 0 0 0
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 0 0 0
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 195 192 170
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 195 192 170
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 0 0 0
  • [a] August-July crop year
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Total Coarse Grains: March 19, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area Seeded 5,610 6,270 6,321
Area harvested (kha) 4,979 5,509 5,457
Yield (t/ha) 5.25 5.17 5.19
Production (kt) 26,132 28,469 28,349
Imports (kt) [b] 2,794 1,752 1,852
Total supply (kt) 33,490 33,512 34,306
Exports (kt) [c] 7,305 6,920 7,140
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 6,095 5,625 5,626
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 16,387 16,442 16,492
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 22,892 22,487 22,491
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 3,292 4,105 4,675
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Oilseeds

Canola

For 2019-20, canola supplies decreased marginally to 22.6 million tonnes (Mt) as high carry-in stocks are more than offset by lower production. Some canola remains unharvested due to a wet, late fall. Anecdotal reports suggest some deterioration of crop quality and yields is occurring due to rodent damage and intermittent freezing and melting. The Canadian Grain Commission is researching the effects of late harvest for canola and invites farmers to submit 2019 grown, spring 2020 harvested, samples to the Commission for laboratory analysis.

Domestic processing of canola is forecast at a record 9.8 Mt, versus the 9.3 Mt processed in 2018-19. The crush pace to-date, as reported by Statistics Canada, is running ahead of last year. It had been assumed that canola seed and canola product consumption will remain unaffected by the spread of the
COVID- 19 virus.

Canola exports are forecast to fall to 9.0 Mt, versus the 9.14 Mt shipped in 2018-19. For the crop year to-date, exports through licensed facilities are running 8% behind last year’s pace. Shipments into the European Union are almost quadruple last year’s pace in response to last summer’s drought and reduced yields across the EU-28. Exports into the Asian region are two-thirds of last year’s pace as a sharp decline in shipments to China is partly offset by increased shipments into alternate price sensitive countries. Shipments into the western hemisphere are running 26% behind last year.

Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall to 3.3 Mt, versus 3.8 Mt for 2018-19. Canola prices are estimated to range between $465-495/t down from $497/t last year.

For 2020-21, seeded area in Canada is forecast to decrease by 2% to 8.3 million hectares (Mha), as farmers shift into alternative crops away from oilseeds. Harvested area is forecast at 8.2 Mha while yields are projected at 2.25 tonnes per hectare (t/ha), up marginally from the 2.24 t/ha achieved in 2019-20. Production is forecast to fall slightly to 18.5 Mt versus the 18.6 Mt grown last year. Total supply is forecast to fall to 21.9 Mt on lower carry-in stocks and lower output.

Exports are forecast up by 6% to 9.5 Mt on support from the slow and steady growth in world consumption of vegetable oils and high oil content oilseeds. Domestic crush is forecast to fall slightly to 9.3 Mt, due to competition from large world soybean oil and palm oil supplies. Carry-out stocks are forecast to tighten slightly to 2.8 Mt for a stocks-to-use ratio of 14% supporting a rise in canola prices to $480-520/t.

Canola [a]: March 19, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 9,232 8,481 8,300
Area harvested (kha) 9,120 8,319 8,215
Yield (t/ha) 2.23 2.24 2.25
Production (kt) 20,343 18,649 18,500
Imports (kt) [b] 146 100 100
Total supply (kt) 22,995 22,580 21,900
Exports (kt) [c] 9,141 9,000 9,500
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 9,295 9,750 9,250
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 666 479 299
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 10,023 10,280 9,600
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 3,831 3,300 2,800
Average Price ($/t) [g] 497 465-495 480-520
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Canola (No.1 Canada, cash, Track Vancouver)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Flaxseed (excluding solin)

For 2019-20, supplies are estimated at 0.56 Mt, versus 0.63 Mt for last year, because of lower production and decreased carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to decline to 0.40 Mt on stable world demand, tighter domestic supplies and disciplined farmer selling. Total domestic use is forecast to fall to 0.09 Mt on lower feed, waste and dockage. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise marginally to 0.07 Mt while flaxseed prices rise slightly to $490-520/t, versus $496/t in 2018-19.

For 2020-21, seeded area for flaxseed in Canada is forecast at 0.45 Mha, up slightly from last year, on support from higher prices. Production is forecast to rise by 34% to 0.65 Mt, assuming a steady abandonment in the harvested area and using five-year average historical yields. Supplies increase by 30% to 0.73 Mt as higher output more than offsets the slight drop in carry-in stocks.

Exports are forecast up by 25% from 2019-20, to 0.50 Mt, on steady to stronger world consumption. Total domestic use is also forecast to rise to 0.11 Mt, on higher feed, waste and dockage. Carry-out stocks are forecast at 0.12 Mt while prices also rise slightly, to $490-530/t for 2020-21.

Flaxseed (excluding solin) [a]: March 19, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 347 379 450
Area harvested (kha) 342 339 421
Yield (t/ha) 1.44 1.43 1.54
Production (kt) 492 486 650
Imports (kt) [b] 9 10 10
Total supply (kt) 628 556 725
Exports (kt) [c] 466 400 500
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 0 0 0
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 85 71 90
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 102 91 110
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 60 65 115
Average Price ($/t) [g] 496 490-520 490-530
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Flaxseed (No.1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • n/a: not available
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Soybeans

For 2019-20, supplies are estimated at 7.1 Mt, down from last year’s 9.2 Mt on sharply lower production and imports. As of Feb 27, the US shipped a total of 34,900 tonnes of soybeans into Canada since September 1st, compared to 580,700 t for the same period last year. Canadian exports are forecasts to decline to 4.3Mt, versus 5.6 Mt last year, on tighter domestic supplies. Canadian soybean crush is expected to fall by 13%, to 1.8 Mt, as some processors switch to crushing canola. Carry-out stocks are estimated at 0.3 Mt, versus 0.7 Mt last year. Soybean prices are forecast modestly higher at $400-430/t versus $406/t for 2018-19.

World soybean crush is estimated up by 6 Mt, to 304 Mt, by the USDA, primarily on an increase in Argentine processing. China remains the world’s largest crusher in 2019-20, at 86.0 M, up marginally from 2018-19 but below the 90.0 Mt processed in 2017-18. Chinese crushing volumes continue to be pressured by outbreaks of African swine fever and COVID-19.

The United States remains the world’s second largest processor of soybeans with crush rising marginally to a record 57.3 Mt. American crush is supported by large supplies and increased domestic soymeal usage. Argentine crush is up 4 Mt, to a record 44.6 Mt, on support from increased exports to assorted countries. Brazil remains the world’s fourth largest soybean crushing country, at a record 43.8 Mt, on support from rising domestic soymeal consumption. The rest of the world is expected to crush 72.6 Mt of soybeans for 2019-20 versus 73.1 Mt for 2018-19.

The factors to watch are:

For 2020-21, planted area in Canada is forecast to fall marginally to 2.23 Mha on concerns over low prices and growing conditions. Production is forecast at 6.6 Mt, vs 6.0 Mt in 2019-20 and 7.4 Mt in 2018-19, assuming five-year average yields.

Total supply is forecast up slightly, to 7.3 Mt, as higher production and imports more than offsets the drop in carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast at 4.7 Mt to a diverse assortment of countries. Domestic processing is forecast up slightly at 1.9 Mt as crushers return to a normal processing pace. Carry-out stocks are forecast at 0.27 Mt versus 0.30 Mt estimated for 2019-20 and the 0.70 Mt carried out in 2018-19.

Soybean prices are forecast up slightly to $410-450/t on support from stronger US prices and a stable Canadian-US dollar exchange rate.

Soybeans [a] : March 19, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 2,558 2,313 2,230
Area harvested (kha) 2,540 2,271 2,221
Yield (t/ha) 2.92 2.66 2.95
Production (kt) 7,417 6,045 6,550
Imports (kt) [b] 1,131 400 500
Total supply (kt) 9,199 7,145 7,350
Exports (kt) [c] 5,640 4,300 4,700
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 2,058 1,800 1,900
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 563 495 275
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 2,859 2,545 2,375
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 700 300 275
Average Price ($/t) [g] 406 400-430 410-450
  • [a] Crop year is September-August.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Soybeans (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019, imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC but will be available from STC on October 4 2018. For 2019-2020[f], area, yield and production are from the STC survey but imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada
Total Oilseeds : March 19, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 12,137 11,172 10,980
Area harvested (kha) 12,001 10,929 10,857
Yield (t/ha) 2.35 2.30 2.37
Production (kt) 28,252 25,180 25,700
Imports (kt) [b] 1,286 510 610
Total supply (kt) 32,821 30,281 29,975
Exports (kt) [c] 15,247 13,700 14,700
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 11,354 11,550 11,150
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 1,314 1,045 664
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 12,984 12,916 12,085
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 4,591 3,665 3,190
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada
Total Grains and Oilseeds : March 19, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 27,820 27,568 27,731
Area harvested (kha) 26,861 26,094 26,469
Yield (t/ha) 3.22 3.30 3.32
Production (kt) 86,584 85,997 87,949
Imports (kt) [b] 4,199 2,442 2,602
Total supply (kt) 105,363 102,361 104,221
Exports (kt) [c] 46,840 43,620 45,840
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 44,601 45,071 43,716
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 13,922 13,670 14,665
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Pulses and special crops

Dry peas

For 2019-20, exports are forecast to rise to 3.5 million tonnes (Mt), with China, Bangladesh and India ranking as Canada’s top three markets. Canadian dry pea exports to India are expected to fall marginally to 205 thousand tonnes (Kt). Through August to January of this crop year, Canadian dry pea exports total 1.9 Mt, nearly 0.4 Mt higher than the same period in 2018-19. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise despite firm export demand, due to increased supply. The average price is expected to be lower than 2018-19, with lower green and feed pea prices offsetting similar yellow pea prices.

During the month of February, the on-farm price of yellow peas in Saskatchewan rose by $8/t, while the price of green peas fell by $40/t. Monthly dry pea exports have continued at a steady pace. The remaining yellow pea stocks are similar to the previous year at this time. Indications are that there will be another large winter pulse crop in India. Even if a higher-than-average pulse crop in India is realized, Canadian dry pea export demand is expected to remain firm through the remainder of the crop year. Support factors include the continued weakness of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar and solid demand from China. Green dry peas prices are expected to maintain a $120/t premium over yellow peas, compared to the $130/t premium in 2018-19.

US dry pea production is estimated by the USDA at over 1.0 Mt, up nearly 40% from 2018-19. This is largely due to improved yields and higher area in Montana. As a result, Canadian exports to the US are forecast to be lower than the previous year. For the 2019-20 crop year to-date (August to December), Canadian dry pea exports to the US totaled 55 Kt.

For 2020-21, seeded area is forecast to be largely unchanged from 2019-20 at 1.75 Mha because of good returns relative to other crops and strong export demand. Production is forecast to rise marginally to 4.3 Mt with similar area seeded and trend yields. However, supply is expected to rise marginally due to higher carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to be lower than the current crop year and carry-out stocks are expected to rise. The average price in 2020-21 is expected to be unchanged from the previous year.

Dry Peas [a]: March 19, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,463 1,753 1,755
Area harvested (kha) 1,431 1,711 1,720
Yield (t/ha) 2.50 2.48 2.50
Production (kt) 3,581 4,237 4,300
Imports (kt) [b] 62 70 60
Total supply (kt) 4,291 4,619 4,785
Exports (b) 3,268 3,500 3,300
Total Domestic Use (c) 711 694 860
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 312 425 625
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 8 10 15
Average Price (d) 270 245-275 245-275
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2019-2020[f] and the years before 2019-2020[f], area, yield and production are from STC. For the years before 2019-2020[f], imports, exports, seed requirements and carry-out stocks are from STC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Lentils

For 2019-20, exports are forecast to rise to 2.1 Mt. India, Turkey and Bangladesh are currently the top three export markets. Through August to January of this crop year, Canadian lentil exports total over 1.0 Mt, up 5% from this same period in 2018-19.

Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease to below average levels. The overall average price is forecast to rise sharply due to lower carry-out stocks.

During the month of February, the on-farm price of large green lentils fell by $25/t and the price of red lentils fell by C$15/t in Saskatchewan. Canadian lentil export demand has not been as robust as dry pea demand, particularly for green lentil types. The price premium for large greens over red lentils is forecast to increase to $130/t versus $85/t in 2018-19.

US lentil production, dominated by the green types, is estimated by the USDA at 250 Kt, down 36% from 2018-19. Despite this, Canadian lentil exports to the US to-date (August to December) are lower than last year at this time at 21 Kt.

For 2020-21, area seeded in Canada is expected to be unchanged at 1.53 Mha, due to higher returns relative to other crops. A higher yield is forecast and production is still expected to rise to 2.2 Mt. Supply is expected to fall to 2.6 Mt with smaller carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be lower at 2.0 Mt. Carry-out stocks are expected to fall. The average price is forecast to increase from 2019-20 with the assumption of an average grade distribution and discounts for lower grades.

Lentils [a]: March 19, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,525 1,530 1,530
Area harvested (kha) 1,499 1,489 1,500
Yield (t/ha) 1.40 1.46 1.47
Production (kt) 2,092 2,167 2,200
Imports (kt) [b] 51 80 50
Total supply (kt) 3,016 2,878 2,600
Exports (b) 2,032 2,100 2,000
Total Domestic Use (c) 353 428 325
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 631 350 275
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 26 14 12
Average Price (d) 390 410-440 440-470
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2019-2020[f] and the years before 2019-2020[f], area, yield and production are from STC. For the years before 2019-2020[f], imports, exports, seed requirements and carry-out stocks are from STC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Dry beans

For 2019-20, exports are expected to be marginally lower than for the 2018-19 crop year despite an increase in supply. The EU and the US are forecast to continue to be the main markets for Canadian dry beans, with smaller volumes exported to Japan, Angola and Mexico. Canadian carry-out stocks are expected to increase. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to rise, due to expectations for lower carry-out stocks in North America. To-date (August-February), Canadian white pea bean prices are 5% higher, pinto bean prices are 20% higher and black bean prices are 5% lower than realised in 2018-19.

US total dry bean production (excluding chickpeas) is estimated by the USDA at over 0.9 Mt, down 17% from 2018-19. US dry bean production fell for nearly all bean types, while production increased for light red kidney types. This is expected to continue to support US and Canadian dry bean prices for 2019-20.

For 2020-21, the area seeded is forecast to fall marginally from 2019-20 to 150 thousand hectares because of lower potential returns compared to other crops. Production is expected to increase to 330 Kt due to higher expected yields and lower abandonment. Supply is expected to rise with higher production combining with large carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be slightly higher with steady demand from the EU and the US. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise sharply. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to fall due to expectations for increased supply in North America.

Dry Beans [a]: March 19, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 143 160 150
Area harvested (kha) 137 150 145
Yield (t/ha) 2.49 2.11 2.28
Production (kt) 341 317 330
Imports (kt) [b] 98 85 85
Total supply (kt) 464 481 510
Exports (b) 348 345 350
Total Domestic Use (c) 37 41 40
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 80 95 120
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 21 25 31
Average Price (d) 815 880-910 770-800
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Chickpeas

For 2019-20, exports are expected to fall significantly from 2018-19, due to decreased import demand from Pakistan. As a result, carry-out stocks are expected to rise sharply. The average price is expected to be unchanged from last year, due to smaller world supplies of chickpeas, including in North America.

US chickpea production is estimated by USDA at 283 Kt, a 50% decrease from 2018-19.

For 2020-21, the area seeded is expected to fall notably from 2019-20 because of higher carry-in stocks and the complications and quality issues from last year’s harvest. As a result, production is expected to fall to 200 Kt. Supply is forecast to fall only marginally from 2019-20 due to the burdensome carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be higher and carry-out stocks are expected to fall. The average price is forecast to be lower, due to expectations for larger world chickpea supplies.

Chickpeas [a]: March 19, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 179 159 120
Area harvested (kha) 176 156 117
Yield (t/ha) 1.77 1.61 1.71
Production (kt) 311 252 200
Imports (kt) [b] 51 53 50
Total supply (kt) 376 405 380
Exports (b) 147 130 135
Total Domestic Use (c) 129 145 130
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 100 130 115
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 36 47 43
Average Price (d) 480 465-495 455-485
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Mustard seed

For 2019-20, exports are forecast to be similar to last year at 120 Kt, and carry-out stocks are forecast to fall. The US and the EU are the main export markets to date for Canadian mustard seed. The average price is forecast to rise from the previous year due to the lower supply and expectations for tight Canadian carry-out stocks.

For 2020-21, the area seeded is forecast to be higher than the previous year. Production is forecast to rise to 145 Kt, with marginally higher area and yields when compared to the previous year. Supply is expected to fall marginally due to lower carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to be unchanged, but despite this, carry-out stocks are forecast to fall. The average price is forecast to be slightly lower than 2019-20.

Mustard Seed [a]: March 19, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 204 161 165
Area harvested (kha) 197 155 160
Yield (t/ha) 0.88 0.87 0.91
Production (kt) 174 135 145
Imports (kt) [b] 8 9 9
Total supply (kt) 235 216 209
Exports (b) 121 120 120
Total Domestic Use (c) 42 41 44
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 73 55 45
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 45 34 27
Average Price (d) 690 700-730 680-710
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020[f] which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Canary seed

For 2019-20, exports are expected to be higher than 2018-19 with increased demand from the EU and Mexico, the top two export markets. Carry-out stocks are expected to tighten. The average price is forecast to rise sharply from 2018-19.

For 2020-21, the area seeded is forecast to rise due to competitive returns relative to other crops. Production is expected to decrease, assuming lower yields than 2019-20. Supply is forecast to fall to 145 Kt. Exports are expected to be lower than 2019-20, and carry-out stocks are expected to remain tight. The average price is expected to be lower than the 2019-20 level.

Canary Seed [a]: March 19, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 109 99 105
Area harvested (kha) 109 94 102
Yield (t/ha) 1.45 1.56 1.42
Production (kt) 158 148 145
Imports (kt) [b] 0 0 0
Total supply (kt) 174 158 145
Exports (b) 156 158 145
Total Domestic Use (c) 7 0 0
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 11 0 0
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 7 0 0
Average Price (d) 505 620-650 560-590
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020[f] which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Sunflower seed

For 2019-20, exports are forecast to be marginally higher than last year due to increased US demand. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise, despite increased exports. The US remains Canada’s main export market for sunflower seed. The average price is forecast to rise from 2018-19 due to higher oilseed sunflower seed prices.

For the US, sunflower seed production is estimated by the USDA to have decreased to below 0.9 Mt. With a smaller US oilseed and confectionery crop, this has supported Canadian sunflower seed prices.

The world supply of sunflower seed is estimated by the USDA at a record 60 Mt. This is 7% higher than last year, due to higher production in Russia. World exports are expected to rise marginally, with domestic use expected to rise to a record 54 Mt. Global carry-out stocks are expected to rise sharply to 3.0 Mt, which may pressure world sunflower oilseed prices.

For 2020-21, area seeded is anticipated to be unchanged from 2019-20 due to expectations of good returns. Production is forecast to fall to 60 Kt and supply is expected to rise to 194 Kt. Exports are expected to be lower, and as a result, carry-out stocks are forecast to increase further. The average price is forecast to fall from 2019-20 as similar prices for confectionery sunflowers in Canada and the US combines with lower prices for oil types.

Sunflower Seed [a]: March 19, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 29 31 31
Area harvested (kha) 27 29 30
Yield (t/ha) 2.13 2.18 2.00
Production (kt) 57 63 60
Imports (kt) [b] 24 25 24
Total supply (kt) 179 191 194
Exports (b) 26 28 26
Total Domestic Use (c) 49 53 48
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 104 110 120
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 138 135 162
Average Price (d) 585 590-620 575-605
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020[f] which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Total Pulses and Special Crops [a]: March 19, 2020
2018-2019 2019-2020[f] 2020-2021[f]
Area seeded (kha) 3,652 3,892 3,856
Area harvested (kha) 3,576 3,783 3,774
Yield (t/ha) 1.88 1.93 1.96
Production (kt) 6,714 7,317 7,380
Imports (kt) [b] 293 322 278
Total supply (kt) 8,734 8,949 8,823
Exports (b) 6,097 6,381 6,076
Total Domestic Use (c) 1,327 1,403 1,447
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,310 1,165 1,300
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC and STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Historical data

Historical principal field crops data are available in spreadsheet format and can be obtained by emailing aafc.bulletin.aac@canada.ca. Please specify crops, crop years, and preferred file format in your request.

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