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Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops, 2019-10-18

Canada: Outlook for Field Crops (PDF Version, 391 KB)

Historical Data

This report is an update of Agriculture and Agri Food Canada’s (AAFC) September outlook report for the 2018-19 crop year which has ended for all crops, and provides the outlook for the 2019-20 crop year. For most crops in Canada, the crop year started on August 1 and ends on July 31, although for corn and soybeans, the crop year started on September 1 and ends on August 31.

For the 2018-19 crop year, the report provides the final estimates for all crops which incorporates information from Statistics Canada’s (STC) October 4, 2019 report on the supply and disposition of soybeans and corn. In addition, STC made revisions to the estimates for a number of other crops. Total exports of field crops increased by 4% as notably higher exports of durum, wheat, coarse grains, soybeans, dry peas and lentils more-than offset lower exports of canola. Carry-out stocks (year-end inventories) for all principal field crops in Canada decreased by about 4% from last year to 15.4 million tonnes (Mt) and will supplement supply for the 2019-20 crop year.

For the 2019-20 crop year, the estimates for area seeded and area harvested for all crops are from STC’s August 28 report, which was based on a survey of producers. The outlook for expected average yields is from STC’s September 12, 2019 report, which was based on agroclimatic data to the end of August. Therefore, the forecasts in the current report do not account for the cold wet conditions which have prevailed on the Prairies since September and heavy snow in early-October. Weather related issues have had a negative impact on crop quality in both Western and Eastern Canada. Revised estimates of field crop production will not be available until December 6 when STC publishes the final estimates of yield and production based on a survey of several thousand of producers. However, based on STC’s September 12 report, total field crop production is estimated at 95.6 Mt with 87.5 Mt of grains and oilseeds (G&O) and 8.1 Mt of pulses and special crops (P&SC). Compared to the previous crop year, total exports of G&O are expected to decrease by about 3 percent and exports of P&SC are expected to remain similar to last year. Total carry-out stocks are expected to rise to 17 Mt, which is 15% higher than the previous five-year average. World grain prices will continue to be pressured by abundant supplies at the global level but the impact on grain prices in Canada will continue to be mitigated by the low value of the Canadian dollar.

Total Grains and Oilseeds: October 18, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 27,149 27,820 27,561
Area harvested (kha) 26,336 26,861 26,343
Yield (t/ha) 3.27 3.22 3.32
Production (kt) 86,187 86,584 87,504
Imports (kt) 2,504 4,261 2,382
Total supply (kt) 103,046 105,165 104,018
Exports (kt) 45,370 46,841 45,335
Total Domestic Use (kt) 43,356 44,191 43,383
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 14,320 14,133 15,300
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production, as well as demand for August-July crops in 2018-19, which are from STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Total Pulses and Special Crops: October 18, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 3,927 3,652 3,849
Area harvested (kha) 3,897 3,576 3,756
Yield (t/ha) 1.90 1.88 2.15
Production (kt) 7,419 6,714 8,079
Imports (kt) 211 293 290
Total supply (kt) 8,407 8,733 9,686
Exports (kt) 5,365 6,077 6,030
Total Domestic Use (kt) 1,315 1,340 1,901
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,727 1,316 1,755
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production, as well as demand for August-July crops in 2018-19, which are from STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
All Principal Field Crops: October 18, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 31,076 31,472 31,410
Area harvested (kha) 30,233 30,437 30,099
Yield (t/ha) 3.10 3.07 3.18
Production (kt) 93,606 93,298 95,583
Imports (kt) 2,715 4,553 2,672
Total supply (kt) 111,453 113,898 113,704
Exports (kt) 50,735 52,918 51,365
Total Domestic Use (kt) 44,672 45,531 45,283
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 16,047 15,449 17,055
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production, as well as demand for August-July crops in 2018-19, which are from STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat

Durum

For 2018-19, Canadian durum exports increased by 4% from 2017-18 to 4.53 million tonnes (Mt), as reported by Statistics Canada (STC). Carry-out stocks rose by 18% to 1.68 Mt. STC raised the carry-out stocks estimate by 0.06 Mt from the September estimate.

For 2019-20, production is estimated to decrease by 13% from 2018-19 to 5 Mt, as the 21% lower seeded area is partly offset by higher average yields. Saskatchewan accounts for 85.5% of the production, Alberta for 14% and Manitoba for 0.5%.

Total supply is estimated to decrease by 7%, as the lower production is partly offset by higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to increase by 4% to 4.7 Mt due to stronger demand resulting from a decrease in world production. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 40% from 2018-19 to 1 Mt, 29% lower than the past five year average of 1.4 Mt. The carry-out stocks forecast is 0.1 Mt lower than in the September report as more durum is expected to be used for feed.

World durum production is estimated by the International Grains Council to fall by 2.5 Mt from 2018-19 to 35.7 Mt, while supply decreases by 1.8 Mt to 46 Mt. Use is expected to fall by 0.4 Mt to 37.1 Mt because of lower use for feed. Carry out stocks are forecast to fall by 1.4 Mt to 8.9 Mt. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is forecasting US durum production at 1.57 Mt, down 0.55 Mt from 2018-19.

The average Canadian crop year producer price for durum is forecast to rise from 2018-19 due to lower world, Canadian and US supply and stronger export demand.

Durum [a]: October 18 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 2,106 2,503 1,980
Area harvested (kha) 2,088 2,456 1,929
Yield (t/ha) 2.38 2.34 2.59
Production (kt) 4,962 5,745 4,998
Imports (kt) [b] 8 24 25
Total supply (kt) 6,798 7,194 6,699
Exports (kt) [c] 4,342 4,526 4,700
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 201 206 210
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 587 596 579
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 1,030 993 999
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,426 1,676 1,000
Average Price ($/t) [g] 265 235 240-270
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Crop year average prices: Wheat (No.1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No.1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices. Barley (No. 1 feed, cash, I/S Lethbridge), Corn (No.2 CE, cash, I/S Chatham), Oats (US No. 2 Heavy, CBOT nearby futures); Rye (No. 1 CW, cash, I/S Saskatoon); Canola (No. 1 Canada, cash, Track Vancouver); Flaxseed (No. 1 CW, cash, I/S Saskatoon); Soybeans (No. 2 CE, cash, I/S Chatham)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production, as well as demand for August-July crops in 2018-19, which are from STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat (excluding durum)

For 2018-19, Canadian wheat exports rose by 12% from 2017-18 to 19.76 Mt and carry-out stocks fell by 16% to 4.24 Mt, as reported by STC. STC reduced the carry-out stocks estimate by 0.325 Mt from the September estimate.

For 2019-20, Canadian wheat production is estimated to rise by 4% from 2018-19 to 27.5 Mt, as the 7.5% higher seeded area is partly offset by higher abandonment for winter wheat and lower average yields. Saskatchewan accounts for 39.5% of the wheat production, Alberta 35.5%, Manitoba 18%, Ontario 5.5%, Quebec 1%, with the remaining 0.5% in the Maritimes and British Columbia.

Production by class of wheat, with 2018-19 production in brackets, is estimated at:

winter (hard red, soft red and soft white) 1.74 Mt (2.51 Mt); Canada Western Red Spring (CWRS), premium quality hard wheat, 22.23 Mt (20.03 Mt); Canada Prairie Spring (CPS) 1.56 Mt (1.59 Mt), Canada Northern Hard Red Spring (CNHR) 0.77 Mt (1.06 Mt); soft white spring (CWSWS) 0.52 Mt (0.47 Mt), other western spring wheat 0.24 Mt (0.27 Mt), eastern spring wheat, mainly hard red spring (CERS), 0.41 Mt (0.39 Mt).

Total supply is estimated to increase by only 1%, as lower carry-in stocks partly offset the increase in production. Exports are forecast to fall by 4% to 19 Mt, as more competition is expected from other exporters because of higher production. The exports forecast is 0.2 Mt lower than in the September report due to lower than expected exports for the first two months of the crop year. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by 18% to 5 Mt, but only 2% higher than the past five year average of 4.92 Mt.

World all wheat (including durum) production is forecast to increase by 35 Mt to 765 Mt, while the supply increases by 29 Mt to 1,043 Mt, according to USDA. Total use is expected to increase by 19 Mt to 755 Mt. Carry out stocks are forecast to rise by 10 Mt to 288 Mt. Excluding China, world all wheat stocks are expected to increase by 4 Mt to 142 Mt.

US all wheat production is estimated to rise by 2.1 Mt from 2018-19 to 53.4 Mt, according to USDA. Supply is expected to increase by 1.1 Mt to 86 Mt. Domestic use is forecast to increase by 1.8 Mt, while exports increase by 0.4 Mt. Carry out stocks are forecast to decrease by 1 Mt to 28.4 Mt.

Average Canadian producer prices for wheat for the crop year are forecast to fall from 2018-19 because of the higher world and US supply.

Wheat Except Durum [a]: October 18, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 7,020 7,570 8,141
Area harvested (kha) 6,895 7,425 7,847
Yield 3.69 3.56 3.50
Production (kt) 25,415 26,456 27,494
Imports (b) 75 95 95
Total supply (kt) 30,593 31,605 31,829
Exports (kt) [c] 17,570 19,764 19,000
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 3,212 3,309 3,310
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 3,977 3,457 3,674
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 7,969 7,601 7,829
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 5,053 4,240 5,000
Average Price ($/t) [g] 240 245 215-245
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Crop year average prices: Wheat (No.1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No.1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices and are not comparable to CWB pool returns for previous years.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production, as well as demand for August-July crops in 2018-19, which are from STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
All Wheat [a]: October 18, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 9,126 10,073 10,121
Area harvested (kha) 8,983 9,881 9,776
Yield (t/ha) 3.38 3.26 3.32
Production (kt) 30,377 32,201 32,492
Imports (kt) [b] 82 119 120
Total supply (kt) 37,391 38,799 38,528
Exports (kt) [c] 21,913 24,289 23,700
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 3,413 3,515 3,520
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 4,564 4,053 4,253
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 8,999 8,593 8,828
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 6,479 5,916 6,000
  • [a] Crop year is August-July
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production, as well as demand for August-July crops in 2018-19, which are from STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Coarse grains

Barley

For 2018-19, carry-out stocks of barley in Canada reached a record low of almost 0.9 million tonnes (Mt) due to lower supply than last year and very high exports.

For 2019-20, barley production in Canada is estimated to increase by 19% to almost 10 Mt, as barley output in most barley producing provinces, except Quebec, increased. About 60% of the increase in production comes from Alberta, the leading barley producing province in Canada, and 39% from Saskatchewan. The supply of barley in Canada is expected to increase significantly from 2018-19 due to sharply increased production which more than offsets historically low carry-in stocks.

Barley domestic use is expected to increase from 2018-19, reflecting higher feed use. Exports are forecast to fall due to improved supplies in competing countries and lower shipments to China. Carry-out stocks are anticipated to increase sharply.

The average price of feed barley has continued to decline since mid-June, in anticipation of abundant feed grain supplies. As a result, the feed barley price for 2019-20 is expected to decrease compared to 2018-19.

World barley production for 2019-20 is projected to rise to its highest level since 2008-09, largely due to higher output in the major world exporting countries, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Barley production in the EU, Australia, Russia and Ukraine is expected to increase. World trade is projected to rise due to higher supply and stronger demand. Increased imports from Saudi Arabia, China and Morocco will more-than offset decreased deliveries to other countries. World carry-out stocks are expected to increase to the highest level in the recent three years.

Barley [a]: October 18, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 2,334 2,628 2,996
Area harvested (kha) 2,114 2,395 2,701
Yield (t/ha) 3.73 3.50 3.70
Production (kt) 7,891 8,380 9,987
Imports (kt) [b] 59 43 40
Total supply (kt) 10,072 9,667 10,920
Exports (kt) [c] 2,823 3,068 3,000
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 62 104 111
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 5,716 5,345 5,868
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 6,005 5,707 6,220
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,244 893 1,700
Average Price ($/t) [g] 227 260 210-240
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Barley (No.1 feed, cash, in-store Lethbridge).
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production, as well as demand for August-July crops in 2018-19, which are from STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Corn

For 2018-19, corn imports increased by 65% from 2017-18 to 2.8 Mt, the highest level since 2008-09. Exports decreased by 12% to 1.6 Mt. Total domestic use increased by 10% due to higher feed and industrial use. Carry-out stocks decreased by 18% to 2.0 Mt.

For 2019-20, the supply of corn in Canada is forecast to decrease significantly from 2018-19 due to lower imports and lower carry-in stocks. Corn production is estimated to increase by 2% to14.1 Mt, as the increase in harvested area more than offsets the decrease in average yields. Total corn production in the largest two corn producing provinces, Ontario and Quebec, increased slightly to 12.5 Mt as higher production in Ontario more-than offsets lower production in Quebec. In Manitoba, the third biggest corn producing province, corn production increased by 22% to 1.5 Mt. Total imports are expected to decrease significantly. Due to abundant supplies of feed grain, the Prairie provinces are not anticipated to import the same large amount of corn from the US as occurred in 2018-19.

Corn domestic use for 2019-20 is expected to decrease from 2018-19, largely owing to lower feed use. Exports and carry-out stocks are forecast to decline on smaller supply.

The average price of corn in Chatham elevators for 2019-20 to-date increased by $30/t from a year ago to $215/t. For the crop year, the average corn price is anticipated to increase from last year due to a significant decline in supply.

US corn production for 2019-20 is projected to decrease by 4.3% from 2018-19 due to a decline in yields, according to the USDA. The average farmgate price of corn in the US is projected at US$3.60/bu, unchanged from 2018-19. Corn production in other major world exporters remains abundant in Argentina and Brazil and is expected to increase in Russia and Ukraine, which should weigh on corn prices.

Corn [a]: October 18, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,447 1,468 1,495
Area harvested (kha) 1,406 1,431 1,463
Yield (t/ha) 10.02 9.70 9.64
Production (kt) 14,096 13,885 14,110
Imports (kt) [b] 1,699 2,800 1,700
Total supply (kt) 18,291 19,102 17,793
Exports (kt) [c] 1,845 1,617 1,515
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 5,173 5,786 5,374
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 8,841 9,699 9,088
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 14,030 15,502 14,478
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 2,417 1,983 1,800
Average Price ($/t) [g] 174 194 190-220
  • [a] Crop year is September-August.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Corn (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham).
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2017-2018, imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC but will be available from STC on October 4 2018. For 2018-2019, area, yield and production are from the STC survey but imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Oats

For 2018-19, carry-out stocks of oats in Canada fell by 47% to a near-record level of 0.4 Mt due to lower supply and stronger exports.

For 2019-20, the supply of oats in Canada is expected to increase, compared to 2018-19, as higher production more than offsets the decrease in carry-in stocks. Oat production increased in the three Prairie provinces, Ontario and Quebec. The Prairie Provinces, particularly Saskatchewan, accounted for most of this increase.

Assuming a similar pace as in 2018-19 for domestic use and exports, carry-out stocks of oats for 2019-20 are forecast to increase but will remain tight. This has strongly supported oat prices across the Prairie provinces.

Oat prices in the Prairie provinces for 2019-20 to date were $10-$40/t higher than those for the same period in 2018-19 and was more than $20/t higher for oat futures at Chicago Board of Trade. For the crop year, average oat price is anticipated to decline slightly compared to 2018-19.

US oat production for 2019-20 is estimated to decrease by 3% over 2018-19, according to the USDA. US oat imports are projected to increase. Oat production in the EU and Australia is forecast to increase.

Oats [a]: October 18 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,295 1,235 1,459
Area harvested (kha) 1,052 1,005 1,158
Yield (t/ha) 3.55 3.42 3.47
Production (kt) 3,733 3,436 4,016
Imports (kt) [b] 14 10 10
Total supply (kt) 4,450 4,225 4,438
Exports (kt) [c] 2,368 2,475 2,580
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 112 186 185
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 1,088 1,031 1,047
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 1,304 1,338 1,358
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 778 412 500
Average Price ($/t) [g] 218 254 225-255
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Oats (US No.2 Heavy, Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) nearby futures)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production, as well as demand for August-July crops in 2018-19, which are from STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Rye

For 2018-19, carry-out stocks of rye in Canada declined significantly to 74 thousand tonnes (Kt). This was the lowest level in three years, mainly due to lower supply, despite weaker demand for domestic use and export.

For 2019-20, rye production in Canada is estimated to increase by 19% to 281 Kt from 2018-19. The supply of rye is expected to decrease slightly from 2018-19 as the decrease in carry-in stocks more-than offsets the increase in production. The quantities of rye distributed on the export market, domestic market and carry-out stocks for 2019-20 are expected to be similar to those of 2018-19.

Rye prices in Saskatchewan and Manitoba elevators have declined but remain high. For 2019-20, the rye price is anticipated to decrease from 2018-19.

Rye [a]: October 18, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 144 136 175
Area harvested (kha) 101 79 97
Yield (t/ha) 3.39 2.99 2.88
Production (kt) 341 236 281
Imports (kt) [b] 1 2 2
Total supply (kt) 507 363 356
Exports (kt) [c] 194 146 140
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 57 19 19
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 119 108 104
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 188 142 136
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 124 74 80
Average Price ($/t) [g] 162 236 200-230
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Rye (No.1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production, as well as demand for August-July crops in 2018-19, which are from STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada
Mixed Grains [a]: October 18, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 123 144 145
Area harvested (kha) 54 69 66
Yield (t/ha) 2.77 2.82 3.03
Production (kt) 149 195 199
Imports (kt) [b] 0 0 0
Total supply (kt) 149 195 199
Exports (kt) [c] 0 0 0
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 0 0 0
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 149 195 199
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 149 195 199
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 0 0 0
  • [a] August-July crop year
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production, as well as demand for August-July crops in 2018-19, which are from STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Total Coarse Grains: October 18, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area Seeded 5,342 5,610 6,269
Area harvested (kha) 4,726 4,979 5,485
Yield (t/ha) 5.55 5.25 5.21
Production (kt) 26,210 26,132 28,592
Imports (kt) [b] 1,773 2,855 1,752
Total supply (kt) 33,469 33,551 33,706
Exports (kt) [c] 7,230 7,305 7,235
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 5,404 6,095 5,689
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 15,913 16,378 16,305
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 21,676 22,883 22,391
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 4,564 3,362 4,080
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production, as well as demand for August-July crops in 2018-19, which are from STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Oilseeds

Canola

For 2018-19, a record 9.3 million tonnes (Mt) of canola was crushed, producing a near record 4.0 Mt of canola oil and a record 5.2 Mt of canola meal. Canadian canola exports were 9.1 Mt, versus 10.8 Mt for last year, due to sharply lower Chinese imports since January 2019. Carry-out stocks are 4.1 Mt, with 1.3 Mt in commercial position and 2.8 Mt on farm. The simple crop year average market price for canola was $497/t compared to $539/t last year and the five year average of $512/t.

For 2019-20, canola production is estimated at 19.4 Mt, 5% below last year but slightly above the five year average, as the 8% shift in crop area out of canola was partly offset by an expected 0.07 t/ha increase in yields. Yields are tentatively estimated at 2.3 t/ha despite the abnormal growing conditions which affected different parts of the growing region during the crop year.

Statistic Canada’s mid-harvest production estimates are derived from a model using satellite-generated imagery. For the current crop year, 53% of the canola is expected to be grown in Saskatchewan, 29% in Alberta and 17% in Manitoba. As of October 4, AAFC estimates 13.7 Mt (71%) of the Canadian canola crop remained unharvested with delays increasing east-to-west across Western Canada. October 4 harvest progress by province was: Manitoba 69%, Saskatchewan 24% and Alberta 16%. Even if weather turns sunny and dry, wet fields are expected to delay harvest progress for the rest of the fall. Much of the canola is expected to be harvested at excess moisture and extensive on-farm drying of the canola crop is anticipated although expected volumes remain unknown as of early October.

Assuming that the harvest is successfully completed, total supplies of canola are forecast at a record 23.6 Mt, an increase of 0.56 Mt from last year’s previous record, as higher carry-in stocks and stable imports exceed the drop in output. Domestic processing of canola is forecast to remain steady at about 9.3 Mt, as the industry continues operating at full capacity.

Canola exports are forecast at 9.2 Mt, versus the five year average of 10.1 Mt, as burdensome global supplies and reduced world demand limit shipments. Some additional support for Canadian exports is being provided by the shortfall in the European and Australian canola-rapeseed crops due to below normal yields as a result of hotter and drier than normal growing conditions. However, this is expected to be more-than-offset by weak Chinese demand for Canadian canola as the two countries remain locked in a trade dispute, and a sharp contraction in Chinese hog inventories due to African Swine Fever.

Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise to 4.7 Mt, with about 3.7 Mt remaining on farm. The stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 25%, up from 20% in 2018-19 but close to the 22% experienced in 2009-10. Canola prices are forecast to fall to $445-485/t from $497/t in 2018-19, as pressure from lower world vegetable oil and protein meals prices is partly offset by the discounted Canadian dollar.

World production of canola-rapeseed oil is estimated at 27.5 Mt, virtually unchanged from last year but down from the 28.1 Mt produced in 2017-18, says the USDA. The European Union is expected to produce 9.4 Mt, followed by China at 6.3 Mt and Canada at 4.2 Mt of canola oil. Other large producers of canola oil are India and Japan. World consumption of canola oil is forecast at 28.0 Mt, down from the 28.1 Mt consumed in 2018-19 and the 29.0 used in 2017-18. World trade is forecast to expand to slightly under 5.0 Mt. Canada accounts for two-third of the world’s canola oil exports, with the aggregate other countries accounting for 29% of canola oil shipments. China is the world’s largest importer of canola oil, projected at 1.5 Mt in 2019-20, 1.45 Mt in 2018-19 and 1.07 Mt in 2017-18. All other countries are expected to account for 61%, or 3.1 Mt of the world’s canola oil imports for 2019-20. Carry-out stocks of canola oil are forecast to tighten to 1.9 Mt, down from 2.5 Mt in 2018-19 and 3.1 Mt in 2019-20, mostly due to the drawdown in Chinese canola-rapeseed oil reserves.

Canola [a]: October 18, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 9,313 9,232 8,479
Area harvested (kha) 9,273 9,120 8,413
Yield (t/ha) 2.30 2.23 2.30
Production (kt) 21,328 20,343 19,358
Imports (kt) [b] 108 146 100
Total supply (kt) 22,778 22,988 23,551
Exports (kt) [c] 10,783 9,141 9,200
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 9,269 9,295 9,250
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 160 397 350
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 9,496 9,754 9,651
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 2,499 4,094 4,700
Average Price ($/t) [g] 539 497 445-485
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Canola (No.1 Canada, cash, Track Vancouver)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production, as well as demand for August-July crops in 2018-19, which are from STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Flaxseed (excluding solin)

For 2018-19, Canadian flaxseed exports were 466 thousand tonnes (Kt), while total domestic use fell to 102 Kt on lower feed, waste and dockage. Carry-out stocks are estimated at 61 Kt, with 38 Kt on farm and 23 Kt in commercial positions. Flaxseed prices are estimated at $496/t versus $463/t for 2017-18.

For 2019-20, flaxseed production is estimated at 577 Kt up from 492 Kt in 2018-19 and up slightly from 2017-18. The rise in output is mostly due to the 9% rise in seeded area, to 0.38 Mha. About 79% of the flaxseed area is located in Saskatchewan, with Alberta and Manitoba accounting for 12% and 9% of the remaining area, respectively. Above normal yields are assumed. Supplies are forecast to rise slightly to 648 Kt, as the increase in output more-than exceeds the drop in carry-in stocks.

Exports are forecast to remain stable at 0.50 Mt while total domestic use decrease due to lower feed, waste and dockage. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise to 70 Kt. Flaxseed prices are forecast at $450-490/t.

For 2019-20, world crushing of flaxseed-linseed is expected to rise slightly, to 2.48 Mt, producing 0.81 Mt of linseed oil and 1.56 Mt of linseed meal, says Oil World. China is the world’s largest flaxseed crusher and is expected to process 0.78 Mt of flaxseed-linseed in 2019-20, similar to previous years. The European Union is expected to crush 0.70 Mt of flaxseed-linseed while the US crush is estimated at 0.27 Mt. Other significant processors of flaxseed-linseed are Kazakhstan, India and Russia, in order of size at between 0.1 Mt to 0.2 Mt per country. Aggregate other countries are expected to crush about 0.21 Mt of flaxseed-linseed in 2019-20.

Flaxseed (excluding solin) [a]: October 18, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 421 347 379
Area harvested (kha) 419 342 373
Yield (t/ha) 1.33 1.44 1.55
Production (kt) 555 492 577
Imports (kt) [b] 7 9 10
Total supply (kt) 802 628 648
Exports (kt) [c] 516 466 500
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 0 0 0
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 145 85 58
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 160 102 78
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 127 61 70
Average Price ($/t) [g] 463 496 450-490
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Flaxseed (No.1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • n/a: not available
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production, as well as demand for August-July crops in 2018-19, which are from STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Soybeans

For 2018-19, exports were 5.6 Mt, up from the 4.9 Mt shipped in 2017-18. Soybean crush was 2.1 Mt while carry-out rose to 0.7 Mt, up slightly from last year. Soybean prices declined to $406/t versus $434/t for 2017-18.

For 2019-20, production is estimated at 6.49 Mt, a 13% drop from the 7.42 Mt grown last year due to a significant drop in planted area and slightly lower expected yields. Total supplies of soybeans in Canada are forecast to fall by 18%, to 7.9 Mt, as sharply lower imports, 0.4 Mt vs 1.1 Mt for 2018-19, supplements the drop in output and negates the slight increase in carry-in stocks (0.70 Mt).

Domestic processing of soybeans is forecast to decline marginally to 1.9 Mt but could easily rise to last year’s pace of 2.1 Mt. Exports are forecast to fall sharply to 4.7 Mt from the record 5.6 Mt shipped out of the country in 2017-18, due to constrained supplies. Feed, waste and dockage is also forecast to fall sharply to 0.29 Mt while carry-out is estimated at 0.45 Mt. Soybean prices are forecast to fall to $380/t to $420/t from $406/t in 2018-19 and $434/t in 2017-18.

At the world level, 2019-20 soybean production is expected to decline by 21 Mt, to 342 Mt, due to a sharply lower US output of about 99 Mt, versus 124 Mt last year. Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase to a record 123 Mt as that country recovers from last year’s drop. Similarly, Argentine production is expected to remain stable at 53 Mt as the country recovers fully from the 2017-18 drought when output fell to 37.8 Mt. China is projected to increase its soybean output slightly, to 17.1 Mt, as it seeks to reduce dependence on imported oilseeds. India is expected to produce 11.0 Mt of soybeans, production will be helped by the longer-than normal monsoon season which will ease drought concerns. Similarly, Paraguayan production is projected to increase slightly to 10.2 Mt, assuming a return to normal growing conditions in that country. Production by other countries is expected to decline marginally to 21.7 Mt

Factors to watch are:

  • (1) any break in the wet fall harvest weather,
  • (2) Canadian and US harvest quality and yields,
  • (3) strength of import country buying, and
  • (4) Canadian and US export shipping pace.
Soybeans [a] : October 18, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 2,947 2,558 2,313
Area harvested (kha) 2,935 2,540 2,296
Yield (t/ha) 2.63 2.92 2.82
Production (kt) 7,717 7,417 6,485
Imports (kt) [b] 534 1,131 400
Total supply (kt) 8,606 9,199 7,585
Exports (kt) [c] 4,929 5,640 4,700
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 1,969 2,058 1,900
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 795 563 285
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 3,026 2,859 2,435
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 651 700 450
Average Price ($/t) [g] 434 406 380-420
  • [a] Crop year is September-August.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Soybeans (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2017-2018, imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC but will be available from STC on October 4 2018. For 2018-2019, area, yield and production are from the STC survey but imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada
Total Oilseeds : October 18, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 12,681 12,137 11,171
Area harvested (kha) 12,627 12,001 11,082
Yield (t/ha) 2.34 2.35 2.38
Production (kt) 29,600 28,252 26,420
Imports (kt) [b] 649 1,286 510
Total supply (kt) 32,186 32,815 31,784
Exports (kt) [c] 16,227 15,246 14,400
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 11,238 11,354 11,150
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 1,100 1,045 693
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 12,682 12,715 12,164
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 3,277 4,854 5,220
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production, as well as demand for August-July crops in 2018-19, which are from STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada
Total Grains and Oilseeds : October 18, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 27,149 27,820 27,561
Area harvested (kha) 26,336 26,861 26,343
Yield (t/ha) 3.27 3.22 3.32
Production (kt) 86,187 86,584 87,504
Imports (kt) [b] 2,504 4,261 2,382
Total supply (kt) 103,046 105,165 104,018
Exports (kt) [c] 45,370 46,841 45,335
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 43,356 44,191 43,383
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 14,320 14,133 15,300
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production, as well as demand for August-July crops in 2018-19, which are from STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Pulses and special crops

Dry peas

For 2018-19, exports were higher than the 2017-18 level at 3.25 million tonnes (Mt) due to record shipments to Bangladesh. This was partly offset by lower exports to China and the US. Domestic use was higher compared to the previous year. The average dry pea price was $270/t due to higher exports which led to decline in carry-out stocks in 2018-19. The average crop year prices for yellow peas was lower than for the previous year but prices were higher than 2017-18 for green types and feed peas.

For 2019-20, production in Canada is estimated to increase by 30% to 4.7 Mt as higher harvested area, particularly in Saskatchewan, was augmented by higher yields. Alberta and Saskatchewan are expected to account for 4.5 Mt of the dry pea production, with the remainder of the production in Manitoba, British Columbia and Eastern Canada. Supply is expected to be higher than last year at 5.1 Mt. Exports are forecast to increase to 3.4 Mt, with China, the US and Bangladesh expected to be Canada’s top three markets. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise despite expectations for a rise in domestic use. The average price is expected to be lower than 2018-19, particularly for green pea types.

During the month of September, Saskatchewan green pea farmgate prices rose $30/t each while yellow pea farmgate prices fell $10/t each. Green dry peas prices are currently at a $50/t premium to yellow dry peas compared to last year when green pea prices were a $125/t premium to yellow peas.

In the US, area seeded to dry peas for 2019-20 is forecast by the USDA to increase by 26% from last year to 1.1 million acres. This is largely due to an expected rise in area seeded in Montana. With higher yields and lower abandonment, US dry pea production is forecast by the USDA to increase sharply to 1.1 Mt. The US exported about 230 thousand tonnes (Kt) of dry peas to Canada, the Phillippines and India. The US is expected to maintain its market share in 2019-20 with production higher than the previous year.

Dry Peas [a]: October 18, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,656 1,463 1,753
Area harvested (kha) 1,642 1,431 1,722
Yield (t/ha) 2.50 2.50 2.71
Production (kt) 4,112 3,581 4,673
Imports (kt) [b] 12 62 60
Total supply (kt) 4,424 4,291 5,059
Exports (b) 3,085 3,247 3,400
Total Domestic Use (c) 691 718 1,059
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 648 326 600
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 17 8 13
Average Price (d) 265 270 225-255
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019 and the years before 2018-2019, area, yield and production are from STC. For the years before 2018-2019, imports, exports, seed requirements and carry-out stocks are from STC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Lentils

For 2018-19, lentil exports rose to over 2.0 Mt, up 32% from the previous year. Of this, 1.3 Mt were red lentil types with 0.7 consisting of the green lentil types. The leading export markets were India, the United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh and Turkey. Total domestic use was lower than the previous year at 0.35 Mt. Carry-out stocks decreased to 0.6 Mt. The average Canadian lentil price was significantly lower than 2017-18, despite increased demand. No.1 large green lentil prices maintained a record crop year premium of $80/t over No.1 red lentil prices.

For 2019-20, due to higher yields, production is estimated to increase by 20% to 2.5 Mt with similar harvested area. The production of large green lentils is forecast to be higher than last year at 0.7 Mt and the production of red lentils is expected to be higher than last year at 1.5 Mt. Production of the other remaining lentil types is expected to be similar to last year at nearly 0.3 Mt.

Supply, however, is expected to increase by only 7% due to smaller carry-in stocks which partly offset the increased production. Exports are expected to be lower than last year at 1.9 Mt, with Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and the EU expected to remain the top three export markets. Domestic use is forecast to be higher than last year. Carry-out stocks are forecast to be higher than the previous year. The overall average price is forecast to be lower than 2018-19. Harvest reports suggest a much lower No.1 and No.2 grade distribution than in 2018-19. Large green lentil prices are forecast to have a larger premium over red lentil prices than last year.

In the US, the area seeded to lentils for 2019-20 is forecast by the USDA at below 0.5 million acres, down almost 38% from 2018-19 due to lower area seeded in Montana. With normal yields and lower abandonment, 2019-20 US lentil production is therefore forecast by USDA to fall below 0.3 Mt, 22% lower than in 2018-19. US lentil exports are about 0.2 Mt annually with the main markets continuing to be the EU, Canada, India and Mexico.

Lentils [a]: October 18, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,783 1,525 1,530
Area harvested (kha) 1,774 1,499 1,501
Yield (t/ha) 1.44 1.40 1.68
Production (kt) 2,559 2,092 2,520
Imports (kt) [b] 35 51 75
Total supply (kt) 2,908 3,016 3,228
Exports (b) 1,538 2,032 1,900
Total Domestic Use (c) 497 350 578
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 873 634 750
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 43 27 30
Average Price (d) 475 390 365-395
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019 and the years before 2018-2019, area, yield and production are from STC. For the years before 2018-2019, imports, exports, seed requirements and carry-out stocks are from STC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Dry beans

For 2018-19, dry bean exports were slightly lower than 2017-18. The EU and the US were the top two markets for Canadian dry beans, with smaller volumes exported to Angola, Japan and Mexico. A favorable exchange rate provided the majority of the support for Canadian dry bean prices in 2018-19.

For 2019-20, production is estimated to rise to nearly 0.36 Mt, consisting of 94 Kt of white pea bean types and 262 Kt of coloured bean types. Production in Manitoba increased while production in Ontario decreased. In Alberta, colored dry bean production increased marginally.

Supply is forecast to increase by 12%, due to higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be similar to last year at 345 Kt. The US and the EU are forecast to remain the main markets for Canadian dry beans, with expectations that Canada will continue to expand its market share in Africa. Carry-out stocks are also expected to rise sharply. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to decrease due to the larger North American supply.

In the US, area seeded to dry beans is forecast by the USDA to rise by 7% to 1.3 million acres, largely due to larger area seeded in Minnesota. US total dry bean production (excluding chickpeas) is forecast by the USDA at 1.1 Mt, down 4% from 2018-19. US export markets are expected to continue to be the EU, Mexico and Canada. US dry bean exports total about 0.3-0.4 Mt annually.

Dry Beans [a]: October 18, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 135 143 147
Area harvested (kha) 132 137 142
Yield (t/ha) 2.45 2.49 2.51
Production (kt) 322 341 356
Imports (kt) [b] 86 97 85
Total supply (kt) 409 463 521
Exports (b) 350 348 345
Total Domestic Use (c) 34 36 36
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 25 80 140
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 7 21 37
Average Price (d) 760 815 770-800
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Chickpeas

For 2018-19, Canadian chickpea exports rose from the previous year to 147  Kt. Record exports to Pakistan were behind the rise in exports. As a result of the larger supply, and despite an increase in exports, carry-out stocks rose sharply from the previous year. The average price decreased sharply, due to a large increase in world supply for all chickpea types.

For 2019-20, production is estimated to fall 16% to 263 Kt, as lower area combines with lower yields. However, supply is forecast to rise to 403 Kt, due to higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to rise marginally due to increased world supply, with the EU, the US and Pakistan expected to remain the main markets for Canadian chickpeas. Carry-out stocks are expected to increase and continue to be burdensome for prices. The average price is forecast to fall due to expectation for increased world supply.

US chickpea area seeded is estimated by the USDA at 0.45 million acres, down 48% from 2018-19. With above normal yields and abandonment, 2019-20 US chickpea production is forecast by the USDA at just over 0.3 Mt, sharply lower than 2018-19.

Chickpeas [a]: October 18, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 68 179 159
Area harvested (kha) 68 176 155
Yield (t/ha) 1.49 1.77 1.70
Production (kt) 102 311 263
Imports (kt) [b] 48 51 40
Total supply (kt) 151 376 403
Exports (b) 116 147 150
Total Domestic Use (c) 21 129 128
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 13 100 125
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 10 36 45
Average Price (d) 950 480 425-455
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Mustard seed

For 2018-19, Canadian mustard exports increased to 121 Kt, up from the previous year due to higher export demand from the US. However, due to higher supply, carry-out stocks rose. Prices fell sharply for all mustard seed types, due to pressure from the increased domestic supply.

For 2019-20, production is estimated to decrease by nearly 20% to 141 Kt due to lower harvested area and yields. The production of all of the major types of mustard (yellow, brown and oriental) fell. However, supply is forecast to fall by only 6%, due to high carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to be similar to last year at 120 Kt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease. The US and the EU are expected to remain the main export markets for Canadian mustard seed. The average price is forecast to be similar to 2018-19 despite tighter domestic supply.

Mustard Seed [a]: October 18, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 156 204 161
Area harvested (kha) 153 197 157
Yield (t/ha) 0.80 0.88 0.90
Production (kt) 122 174 141
Imports (kt) [b] 9 9 8
Total supply (kt) 211 236 222
Exports (b) 112 121 120
Total Domestic Use (c) 45 42 42
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 53 73 60
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 34 45 37
Average Price (d) 770 690 675-705
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019 and the years before 2018-2019, area, yield and production are from STC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Canary seed

For 2018-19, exports were higher than the previous year at 156 Kt. This was due to higher exports to Mexico, the EU and Brazilian demand. The average price increased due to tighter Canadian carry-out stocks.

For 2019-20, production is estimated to be reduced by nearly half to 80 Kt, as lower harvested area due to high abandonment combines with lower yields. Exports are expected to be limited by lower supply. The EU and Mexico are forecast to remain the main export markets, followed by South America and the US. Carry-out stocks are expected to tighten. The average price is forecast to be sharply higher than the 2018-19 level due to strong world demand and tight Canadian stocks.

Canary Seed [a]: October 18, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 103 109 77
Area harvested (kha) 103 109 58
Yield (t/ha) 1.41 1.45 1.39
Production (kt) 145 158 80
Imports (kt) [b] 0 0 0
Total supply (kt) 165 174 91
Exports (b) 147 156 90
Total Domestic Use (c) 2 7 1
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 16 11 0
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 11 7 0
Average Price (d) 465 505 580-610
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019 and the years before 2018-2019, area, yield and production are from STC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Sunflower seed

For 2018-19, sunflower seed exports were higher at 26 Kt due to increased demand from the US. As a result, carry-out stocks fell slightly. The total average Canadian price for sunflower seed decreased marginally from the previous year despite higher oilseed and confectionery type prices. This occurred as a result of an increase in the percentage of oilseed type production and a decrease in the percentage of confectionery type production in Canada.

For 2019-20, production is estimated at 47 Kt, down 18% from last year, due to lower harvested area. Supply is expected to fall to 162 Kt due to lower production. Although exports are forecast to be similar, carry-out stocks are expected to fall sharply. The US is expected to remain Canada’s main export market for sunflower seed. The average price is forecast to rise as the similar prices for confectionery sunflower seed combine with higher prices for the oilseed types of sunflowers.

Area seeded to sunflower seed in the US is estimated by the USDA at nearly 1.4 million acres, marginally higher than last year due to the increase in area seeded in North Dakota. The area seeded to oil type varieties increased to 1.2 million acres and the area seeded to confectionery type varieties rose to 0.16 million acres. For 2019-20, US sunflower seed production is forecast by USDA at over 1.0 Mt, 7% higher than last year.

For 2019-20, the global supply of sunflower seed is estimated by the USDA at a record 57.8 Mt. This is marginally higher than last year due to record expected production in Ukraine and Russia. World domestic use is expected to reach a record 52.4 Mt and world exports are forecast to rise by 3%. World carry-out stocks are expected to fall marginally to 2.9 Mt, below the five year average. This may provide some support for world sunflower seed prices.

Sunflower Seed [a]: October 18, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 26 29 23
Area harvested (kha) 26 27 22
Yield (t/ha) 2.26 2.13 2.14
Production (kt) 58 57 47
Imports (kt) [b] 22 24 22
Total supply (kt) 139 179 162
Exports (b) 17 26 25
Total Domestic Use (c) 25 59 57
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 98 94 80
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 234 110 97
Average Price (d) 590 585 585-615
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019 and the years before 2018-2019, area, yield and production are from STC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Total Pulses and Special Crops [a]: October 18, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 3,927 3,652 3,849
Area harvested (kha) 3,897 3,576 3,756
Yield (t/ha) 1.90 1.88 2.15
Production (kt) 7,419 6,714 8,079
Imports (kt) [b] 211 293 290
Total supply (kt) 8,407 8,733 9,686
Exports (b) 5,365 6,077 6,030
Total Domestic Use (c) 1,315 1,340 1,901
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,727 1,316 1,755
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC and STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Historical data

Historical principal field crops data are available in spreadsheet format and can be obtained by emailing aafc.bulletin.aac@canada.ca. Please specify crops, crop years, and preferred file format in your request.

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