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Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops, 2021-01-25

Canada: Outlook for Field Crops (PDF version, 228 KB)

Historical Data

This report is an update of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) December outlook report for the 2020-2021 crop year and provides AAFC’s preliminary look at the upcoming 2021-2022 crop year. For most crops in Canada, the crop year starts on August 1 and ends on July 31, although for corn and soybeans, the crop year starts on September 1 and ends on August 31.

For 2020-2021, the outlook incorporates the results of Statistics Canada’s (STC) November Farm Survey of crop production which was released on December 3, 2020. These are the final survey-based production estimates for 2020 and replace the model-based estimates, which were released by Statistics Canada on September 14, 2020.

Total supply is forecast to increase to 116.0 million tonnes (Mt) on record crop production. Total exports are forecast to increase significantly, by 9% to 57.4 Mt, and be the main driver behind an expected 6% decrease in total carry-out stocks to 13.4 Mt. Grain prices in Canada are forecast to continue to be supported by the expected relatively low value of the Canadian dollar and strong world demand.

For 2021-2022, the area seeded to field crops in Canada is forecast to increase marginally from 2020-2021 as area increases for wheat (mainly durum), oilseeds, pulse and special crops offset decreases in acreage for coarse grains. In general, average yields are forecast to decrease compared to 2020-2021, based on a return to trend yields. Production of grains, oilseeds and pulse and special crops are forecast to decrease modestly, resulting in expected total field crop production decreasing to 96.3 Mt. In general, prices are expected to remain relatively strong, but decrease from their current levels as world production is expected to increase.

The economic outlook for the world and Canadian grain markets is expected to continue to be impacted by the domestic and international uncertainty caused by COVID-19. The next STC crop data release is scheduled on February 5, 2021, when data on grain stocks as of December 31st, 2020 will be made public.

Total Grains and Oilseeds: January 25, 2021
2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 27,568 27,490 27,764
Area harvested (kha) 26,242 26,419 26,612
Yield (t/ha) 3.32 3.42 3.31
Production (kt) 87,125 90,444 88,184
Imports (kt) 2,957 2,416 2,812
Total supply (kt) 104,611 106,256 103,146
Exports (kt) 45,077 50,000 47,930
Total Domestic Use (kt) 46,138 44,106 43,766
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 13,397 12,150 11,450
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Total Pulses and Special Crops: January 25, 2021
2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 3,911 4,000 4,125
Area harvested (kha) 3,804 3,949 4,047
Yield (t/ha) 1.99 2.16 2.02
Production (kt) 7,559 8,527 8,165
Imports (kt) 327 333 313
Total supply (kt) 9,424 9,757 9,748
Exports (kt) 7,418 7,380 7,205
Total Domestic Use (kt) 1,109 1,107 1,173
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 897 1,270 1,370
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
All Principal Field Crops: January 25, 2021
2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 31,479 31,490 31,889
Area harvested (kha) 30,046 30,368 30,659
Yield (t/ha) 3.15 3.26 3.14
Production (kt) 94,685 98,971 96,349
Imports (kt) 3,284 2,749 3,125
Total supply (kt) 114,036 116,013 112,894
Exports (kt) 52,495 57,380 55,135
Total Domestic Use (kt) 47,247 45,213 44,939
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 14,294 13,420 12,820
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat

Durum

For 2020-21, Canadian durum production increased by 32% from 2019-2020 to reach 6.57 million tonnes (Mt). This is attributed to an increase in seeded and harvested area and a 5% improvement in yields. Total supply is estimated at 7.3 Mt, 6% more than last year, and 2% more than average supplies over the last five years.

Exports are moving well to date and forecast to reach a record of 5.4 Mt. Exports continue to be sustained by limited international supplies and strong demand from Europe and North Africa. Domestic use is forecast at 1 Mt because of an increase in food use, while carry out stocks are forecast at 0.9 Mt, up from 2019-2020, but 35% less than the last five year average.

USDA is forecasting US durum production to increase 28% to 2.5 Mt pushing total supply to 5.6 Mt, 2% more than the previous year, but on par with the last five year average. Domestic use is also expected to increase 41% to 3.4 Mt, with an increase in both food and seed use. Exports and ending stocks are both forecast to decline by 29% to about 1.1 Mt respectively.

According to the IGC, world supply is expected to fall this year (-2%) with increased production in North America offset by lower world carry-in stocks and limited production seen in Europe and North Africa. Use is expected to increase slightly (+2%), while carry-out stocks are expected to drop to 7.6 Mt, the lowest since 2014-2015.

The average Canadian crop year producer price for Saskatchewan No. 1 Canadian Western Amber Durum (CWAD) 13% protein is forecast at $280/t, $5/t more than last month, underpinned by strong international demand.

For 2021-22, the area seeded to durum in Canada is forecast to increase by 6% from 2020-21 thanks to strong pricing. Supply is projected to remain relatively on par with current volume as yields return to average levels. Exports are expected to fall while feed use and dockage are forecast to remain stable, close to 2020-21 levels. Carry out stocks are forecast to return to average levels at 1.3 Mt.

World durum supply and production is forecast to increase in 2021-22 with an increase in seeded area globally and a return to average yields in Europe and North Africa. Use is expected to be stable as higher food use is offset by lower feed use.

The average Canadian crop year producer price for durum is forecast to decline over 2021-2022, due to higher production at the world, Canadian and US levels.

Durum [a]: January 25, 2021
2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,980 2,302 2,430
Area harvested (kha) 1,902 2,295 2,369
Yield (t/ha) 2.62 2.86 2.66
Production (kt) 4,977 6,571 6,298
Imports (kt) [b] 96 30 25
Total supply (kt) 6,906 7,338 7,273
Exports (kt) [c] 5,344 5,400 5,000
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 216 230 215
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 388 534 535
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 825 988 973
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 737 950 1,300
Average Price ($/t) [g] 270 280 270
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Crop year average prices: Wheat (No.1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No.1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices. Barley (No. 1 feed, cash, I/S Lethbridge), Corn (No.2 CE, cash, I/S Chatham), Oats (US No. 2 Heavy, CBOT nearby futures); Rye (No. 1 CW, cash, I/S Saskatoon); Canola (No. 1 Canada, cash, Track Vancouver); Flaxseed (No. 1 CW, cash, I/S Saskatoon); Soybeans (No. 2 CE, cash, I/S Chatham)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat (excluding durum)

For 2020-21, Canadian wheat production is estimated at 28.6 Mt, 4.5% more than in 2019-2020, due to record yields more-than offsetting the lower seeded and harvested area. This year’s yield was 3.71 t/acre, an improvement of 5% over average yields since 2015-2016. Total supply is forecast at 33.5 Mt with winter wheat estimated at 2.77 Mt, and spring wheat estimated at 25.8 Mt, 0.4% less than 2019-2020 volumes.

Exports are forecast at 21 Mt, 10% more than the previous year and 18% more than the last five year average, because of strong import demand from China. Domestic use is forecast at 7.2 Mt, with a small increase in food use offset by a reduction in feed use domestically. Carry-out stocks are forecast at 5.3 Mt.

According to the USDA, the global outlook for wheat this month is for smaller supplies, increased exports and tightening stocks. Compared to the December report, overall supply is lowered 1.6 Mt to 1,072.7 Mt on lower production estimates from China (-1.8 Mt) and Argentina (-0.5 Mt).

Trade is forecast 193.8 Mt, with higher exports forecast for Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom. Demand from China is expected to remain strong with forecasted imports raised 0.5 Mt to 9 Mt, 67% more than volumes imported in 2019-2020.

Global consumption is forecast to increase to 759.5 Mt on higher feed and residual use in China, the United States and Russia. Ending stocks were tightened another 3.3 Mt to 313.2 Mt, with China holding the bulk at 51%. Excluding China, world ending stocks are forecast at 154.3 Mt, 4% more than 2019-2020.

For the US, the January forecasted supply for 2020-2021 remains unchanged at 81 Mt, 5% less than 2019-20, due to a 5% decline in both carry-in stocks and production. Carry-out stocks were tightened 3% to 22.8 Mt, due to an increase in feed use (+25%).

Average Canadian producer prices for Saskatchewan for No. 1 Canadian Western Red Spring (CWRS) 13.5% protein are forecast at $230/t, up 5$ compared to last month, supported by strong demand by importers.

For 2021-22, Canadian area seeded is forecast to remain relatively stable, as more acres are seeded to durum, due to attractive pricing. Assuming average yields, production is projected to decrease 4.4% to 27.4 Mt and supply is forecast to drop 2% to 32.7 Mt. Exports are expected to return to average volumes seen over the last three years, just under 20 Mt. Domestic use is forecast at 7.7 Mt, with a return to average feed use levels at 4 Mt.

The International Grains Council (IGC) 5 year baseline projections were published on January 11 and are calling for larger production, supplies and ending stocks in 2021-22, underpinned by larger production in Argentina and Europe, and large carry-in stocks in China. On January 12, the USDA reported that the area seeded to winter wheat, the major wheat type in the US, is estimated at over 12.9 million hectares, 5% higher than 2020 and 2% more than in 2018. Assuming average yields, US supply is projected to increase about 3% over 2020-21.

Average Canadian producer prices for wheat for the crop year are forecast at $235/t, but with downward pressure if projected supplies are realized.

Wheat Except Durum [a]: January 25, 2021
2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 8,145 7,892 7,902
Area harvested (kha) 7,754 7,723 7,650
Yield 3.53 3.71 3.60
Production (kt) 27,371 28,616 27,353
Imports (b) 179 100 100
Total supply (kt) 31,758 33,479 32,753
Exports (kt) [c] 19,128 21,000 20,000
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 3,363 3,375 3,200
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 3,687 2,987 3,600
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 7,868 7,179 7,753
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 4,763 5,300 5,000
Average Price ($/t) [g] 225 230 235
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Crop year average prices: Wheat (No.1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No.1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices and are not comparable to CWB pool returns for previous years.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
All Wheat [a]: January 25, 2021
2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 10,125 10,194 10,332
Area harvested (kha) 9,656 10,018 10,019
Yield (t/ha) 3.35 3.51 3.36
Production (kt) 32,348 35,187 33,651
Imports (kt) [b] 275 130 125
Total supply (kt) 38,664 40,816 40,026
Exports (kt) [c] 24,471 26,400 25,000
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 3,578 3,605 3,415
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 4,075 3,520 4,135
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 8,694 8,166 8,726
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 5,499 6,250 6,300
  • [a] Crop year is August-July
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Coarse grains

Barley

For 2020-21, barley production in Canada increased by 3% from the previous year to 10.7 million tonnes (Mt), largely due to higher harvested area and better yields, reaching the highest level since 2008-09.

Total supply has reached a ten-year high at 11.8 Mt, due to good production, despite low carry-in stocks. Canadian barley exports, including grain and products, are expected to be 3.5 Mt, 15% higher than last year, based on the current strong export pace. Domestic use is expected to decline slightly on lower feed consumption. Industrial use is expected to recover, but will be lower than the level in 2018-19. Owing to larger supplies, carry-out stocks are expected to rise by 5% from last year, but are still 25% lower than the previous five-year average.

The average price of feed barley for 2020-21 is expected to rise by 6% from 2019-20 to $245/t as a result of strong demand for exports and domestic use, as well as supportive corn prices.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that 2020-21 world barley production will remain stable from last year, due to increased barley production in Australia, Canada and Russia offsetting lower barley production in Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Argentina. World carry-out stocks are expected to be up by 3%, with most of the increase being located in Australia and Russia, the major exporting countries, and China, Iran and Saudi Arabia, the major importing countries.

For 2021-22, the area seeded to barley in Canada is forecast to decrease by 7% to 2.9 million hectares (Mha), as strong acreage competition from oilseeds is expected to attract more areas than barley, despite good feed barley prices. Production is forecast to decrease by 12% to 9.5 Mt on forecasts for lower harvested area and yield, using the previous five-year averages. Supply is forecast to drop by 10% to 10.6 Mt due to lower production more-than offsetting the rise in carry-in stocks. Domestic use is anticipated to drop on lower feed use. Exports are expected to fade on anticipation of lower buying from Canada’s major barley importers and lower available domestic surplus. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall on lower barley supply.

Average price of feed barley for 2021-22 is forecast to increase slightly on forecasts for lower domestic barley supply.

The International Grains Council (IGC) projects world barley production for 2021-22 to decline, which will result in lower total supply, despite higher carry-in stocks. Alongside forecasts for increased consumption, carry-out stocks are project to drop.

Barley [a]: January 25, 2021
2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 2,996 3,060 2,855
Area harvested (kha) 2,728 2,809 2,550
Yield (t/ha) 3.81 3.82 3.73
Production (kt) 10,383 10,741 9,500
Imports (kt) [b] 63 60 60
Total supply (kt) 11,308 11,757 10,560
Exports (kt) [c] 3,054 3,500 3,000
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 277 298 318
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 6,759 6,719 6,091
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 7,298 7,257 6,660
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 957 1,000 900
Average Price ($/t) [g] 232 245 250
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Barley (No.1 feed, cash, in-store Lethbridge).
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Corn

For 2020-21, corn production in Canada rose slightly from the previous year to 13.6 Mt due to better yields, although 2% lower than the previous five-year average.

Corn imports are expected to decrease by 22% due to good feed grain supplies. Total Canadian corn supply for 2020-21 is expected to increase by 1% at 17.8 Mt due to a sharp increase in carry-in stocks and a slight increase in production. Canadian corn exports are expected to increase to 1.4 Mt, versus 677 thousand tonnes (Kt) last year, largely due to expectations for higher exports to the EU. Domestic use is anticipated to decrease by 1% to 14.1 Mt on lower feed use. Carry-out stocks are expected to drop by 10% to 2.3 Mt from the prior-year’s record level.

Average price of Chatham corn for 2020-21 is expected to increase by 8% to $210/t, due to higher US corn prices but partly offset by the appreciation of Canadian dollar.

The USDA lowered the US corn production for 2020-21 from last estimates by 2% on lower yield estimates, although still 4% higher than last year. The demand for all uses was also revised lower, but it is still 4% higher than last year, including increased uses for ethanol production and exports. The US corn carry-out stocks are expected to be seven-year low The marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers was pegged at US$4.20 per/ bushel, revised by US$0.20 per/ bushel higher, resulting in an increase of US$0.64/bushel from last year.

World corn production estimates for the US, Brazil and Argentina, the major exporting countries, were revised lower, while they were revised higher for China and India. Compared with the previous year, total production is expected to increase by 2% due to higher production estimates for Brazil and the US more than offsetting lower production estimates for Argentina and Ukraine. Demand around the world has been strong and is anticipated to grow by 2% in 2020-21 on higher feed use and industrial use. Total imports are anticipated to rise by 4% to 181 Mt, largely due to strong demand from Asian countries, driven by an increase of 9.9 Mt for China’s imports. World carry-out stocks are pegged at a six-year low.

For 2021-22, the area seeded to corn in Canada is forecast to decrease by 3% from 2019-20 to 1.4 Mha, as some corn area is forecast to shift to oilseeds. Production is forecast to decrease by 2% to 13.3 Mt on forecasts for lower harvested area, and imports are expected to increase accordingly. Supply is projected to drop slightly from 2020-21 mainly due to lower carry-in stocks and production. Domestic use is projected to remain the same as the previous year on stable feed use and industrial use. Exports are projected to remain stable. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 9% to 2.1 Mt.

The average price of corn for 2021-22 is forecast to remain the same as the previous year, due to the expected higher US corn price offset by the appreciation of Canadian dollar.

According to the IGC, world corn production for 2021-22 is projected to increase by 40 Mt to 1,184 Mt on higher production in the world major exporting countries, as well as in China and the EU. Demand around the world continues to grow and world carry-out stocks continue to drop.

Corn [a]: January 25, 2021
2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,496 1,440 1,400
Area harvested (kha) 1,451 1,402 1,362
Yield (t/ha) 9.24 9.67 9.77
Production (kt) 13,404 13,563 13,308
Imports (kt) [b] 2,184 1,700 2,000
Total supply (kt) 17,568 17,823 17,608
Exports (kt) [c] 677 1,400 1,400
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 5,303 5,300 5,300
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 9,012 8,808 8,792
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 14,331 14,123 14,108
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 2,560 2,300 2,100
Average Price ($/t) [g] 195 210 210
  • [a] Crop year is September-August.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Corn (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham).
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Oats

For 2020-21, oat production in Canada increased by 8% from the previous year to 4.6 Mt, largely due to higher harvested area and better yields.

Total supply is expected to increase to the third highest level on record, largely due to increased production. Canadian oat exports, including grain and products, are expected to be 2.8 Mt, 6% higher than last year. Total domestic use is expected to rise, largely on higher feed use. Carry-out stocks are expected to increase from 426 Kt last year to 600 Kt.

The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) oat futures price for 2020-21 is expected to be $270/t, close to the level of the previous year, underpinned by strong demand, despite ample supplies in Canada, the US and the world’s major exporting countries.

The 2020-21 oat production in the world’s main oat producing countries, including Australia and the EU, is estimated to increase. Total demand is also expected to increase. Total carry-out stocks are anticipated to increase by 35% from last year; most of the increase is in the major exporting countries and the US.

For 2021-22, the area seeded to oats in Canada is forecast to decrease by 11%, approaching 1.4 Mha, as strong acreage competition from oilseeds is expected to attract more areas than oats, despite good oat prices. Production is forecast to decrease by 16% to 3.9 Mt on forecasts for lower harvested area and yield using the previous five-year averages. Supply is forecast to drop by 11% to 4.5 Mt due to lower production more-than offsetting the rise in carry-in stocks. Domestic use is anticipated to fall on lower feed use. Exports are expected to fade due to expectations for increased global supplies and a decrease in the available domestic surplus. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall on lower oat supply.

Average price of oats for 2021-22 is forecast to increase slightly on forecasts for lower North American oat supply.

The IGC projects stable world oat production for 2021-22, alongside higher carry-in stocks, resulting in increased total supply. Demand is forecast to rise, but the increase is lower than that in total supply, leading to higher carry-out stocks.

Oats [a]: January 25, 2021
2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,459 1,554 1,379
Area harvested (kha) 1,171 1,245 1,114
Yield (t/ha) 3.61 3.62 3.46
Production (kt) 4,227 4,576 3,852
Imports (kt) [b] 13 14 15
Total supply (kt) 4,637 5,015 4,467
Exports (kt) [c] 2,615 2,770 2,500
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 143 140 140
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 1,324 1,390 1,205
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 1,597 1,645 1,467
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 426 600 500
Average Price ($/t) [g] 274 270 275
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Oats (US No.2 Heavy, Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) nearby futures)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Rye

For 2020-21, rye production in Canada increased by 46% from last year to 488 Kt due to the good output across Canada; it is the highest level in three decades. Supply is expected to increase by 37% from last year to 530 Kt, the highest since 2006.

Exports are estimated to fall by 21% to 130 Kt, based on the current export pace. Domestic feed use is expected to increase significantly due to relatively cheap prices and good supplies. Carry-out stocks are projected to rise sharply due to bumper supplies. Rye prices are expected to fall by 17% from 2019-20, due to ample supplies in Canada, the US and around the world.

For 2021-22, the area seeded to fall rye in Canada increased to 240 thousand hectares (Kha), versus 237 Kha for a year ago. It is also the highest level since 2006-07, combined with trending higher yield, which might result in production and total supply at record levels in thirty years. Domestic use is anticipated to increase due to ample supply and expectations for increased feed use. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase due to plentiful supply. Average price of rye for 2021-22 is forecast to decrease on forecasts for larger supply.

The IGC projects a slight lower world rye production for 2021-22, alongside higher carry-in stocks, resulting in a slight increase in total supply. Demand is forecast to have a stable increase and carry-out stocks are projected to remain unchanged.

Rye [a]: January 25, 2021
2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 175 237 240
Area harvested (kha) 103 146 159
Yield (t/ha) 3.25 3.34 3.21
Production (kt) 333 488 510
Imports (kt) [b] 3 2 2
Total supply (kt) 386 530 612
Exports (kt) [c] 165 130 130
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 19 24 24
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 140 255 290
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 180 299 332
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 40 100 150
Average Price ($/t) [g] 210 175 170
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Rye (No.1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada
Mixed Grains [a]: January 25, 2021
2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 145 166 148
Area harvested (kha) 68 67 69
Yield (t/ha) 2.84 3.49 2.74
Production (kt) 192 233 188
Imports (kt) [b] 0 0 0
Total supply (kt) 192 233 188
Exports (kt) [c] 0 0 0
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 0 0 0
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 192 233 188
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 192 233 188
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 0 0 0
  • [a] August-July crop year
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Total Coarse Grains: January 25, 2021
2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area Seeded 6,271 6,457 6,022
Area harvested (kha) 5,520 5,669 5,254
Yield (t/ha) 5.17 5.22 5.21
Production (kt) 28,539 29,601 27,358
Imports (kt) [b] 2,264 1,776 2,077
Total supply (kt) 34,091 35,358 33,435
Exports (kt) [c] 6,510 7,800 7,030
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 5,743 5,762 5,782
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 17,427 17,405 16,567
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 23,598 23,558 22,755
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 3,982 4,000 3,650
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Oilseeds

Canola

For 2020-21, the situation for canola has tightened significantly from last year with supplies falling by 9%, to 22.0 million tonnes (Mt), resulting from a 29% decline in carry-in stocks and a 5% drop in production. Demand for Canadian canola remains strong on support from sharply higher world oilseed, vegetable oil and protein meal prices, supported in turn by aggressive Chinese buying as that country rebuilds its hog herd.

The combination of tighter supplies and strong demand is supporting a sharp price rally resulting in the rationing of demand for Canadian canola. Domestic processing of canola is estimated down by 6% from last year, to 9.5 Mt. Uncertainty over this estimate is higher than usual based on mixed data for the crush pace to date, with the CGC showing a sharp drop in domestic disappearance for the crop year to date, while Statistics Canada shows a 5% rise in canola crush for the Aug-Nov 2020 period versus the same period last year. The crush pace will be closely monitored and the forecasts adjusted as the crop year advances.

Canadian exports are forecast up 7% from last year, to 10.9 Mt, the second highest level on record. This forecast is supported by the aggressive export pace for the first 5 months of the crop year, which saw exports through licensed facilities rise by 38%, to 5.1 Mt, on support from strong Chinese, European Union, Japanese, United Arab Emirate and Mexican buying. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 62% from last year, to a historically tight 1.2 Mt, for a stock-to-use ratio of 6% versus 15% in 2019-20 and the 5 year average of 14%. Canola prices are estimated at $635/t versus $484/t last year and the 5 year average of $511/t.

For 2021-22, seeded area in Canada is forecast to increase by 3%, to 8.7 million hectares (Mha), as farmers expand canola area at the expense of coarse grains. Harvested area is forecast at 8.6 Mha while yields are projected at 2.31 tonnes per hectare (t/ha), up from the 2.25 t/ha achieved in 2020-21. Production is forecast to rise by 6% to 19.9 Mt, the third highest level on record. Total supply is forecast to fall slightly to 21.2 Mt as sharply lower carry-in stocks more-than offset the rise in production.

Exports are forecast to fall by 5% to 10.4 Mt, as tighter domestic supplies limit Canada’s ability to serve the strong world demand for vegetable oils and protein meals. Domestic crush is forecast to remain stable at 9.5 Mt while carry-out stocks fall by 17% to a very tight 1.0 Mt for a stock-to-use ratio of 5%. Canola prices are forecast at $600/t, track Vancouver.

The accuracy of the 2021-22 hinges on a few key factors, the first being the strength of Chinese import demand for oilseeds and oilseed products. This forecast assumes stable Chinese buying for the upcoming crop year, however in the past, China’s import pace for oilseeds has been volatile with buying decisions determined by non-commercial decisions opaque to the marketplace. The strength of Chinese demand will continue to be monitored closely and the forecast adjusted accordingly if market conditions change.

Other factors affecting the canola outlook are soybean planting intentions and expected yields for both North and South America. Although plantings are expected to increase sharply, supplies are expected to remain tight for both continents. Summer weather conditions across the European Union will also affect the accuracy of the canola forecast; hot and dry weather for the past two summers constrained yields and tightened supplies across one of the world’s key canola growing regions. Normal weather is assumed for 2020-21 but a return to hot and dry conditions could negatively impact the European crop and support Canadian prices. Brexit is assumed to have a negligible impact on Canadian canola prices at this time.

Canola [a]: January 25, 2021
2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 8,481 8,410 8,650
Area harvested (kha) 8,456 8,320 8,598
Yield (t/ha) 2.32 2.25 2.31
Production (kt) 19,607 18,720 19,900
Imports (kt) [b] 155 100 100
Total supply (kt) 24,197 21,950 21,200
Exports (kt) [c] 10,170 10,900 10,400
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 10,129 9,500 9,500
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 707 290 249
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 10,897 9,850 9,800
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 3,131 1,200 1,000
Average Price ($/t) [g] 484 635 600
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Canola (No.1 Canada, cash, Track Vancouver)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Flaxseed

For 2020-21, supplies are estimated up 15%, to 0.65 Mt, versus 0.57 Mt last year, as the result of higher production and marginally higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to increase by about 43%, to 0.5 Mt due to the combination of strong European buying, as the EU’s traditional supplier, Kazakhstan switches to supplying China instead. Conversely, total domestic use is forecast to fall by 67%, to 51,600 t, on sharply lower feed waste and dockage. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise by 57% to 0.1 Mt while flaxseed prices rally sharply to $665/t, versus $518/t in 2019-20 and the 5 year average of $477/t.

For 2021-22, the area seeded to flaxseed in Canada is forecast to rise by 22% to a five-year high of 0.46 Mha, on support from the 28% rally in prices in 2020-21. The shift into flaxseed area is expected to be limited by agronomic factors, such as low spring soil moisture, and by competition for crop area from alternate crops, such as lentils. Flaxseed production is forecast at 0.68 Mt, assuming an area loss of 2% prior to harvest and five year average yields of 1.5 t/ha. Total supply is forecast to increase by 20%, to 0.79 Mt, based on a 57% rise in carry-in stocks combined with the expected increase in output.

Exports are forecast to remain stable with 2020-21 levels, at 0.50 Mt, on steady to stronger Chinese, European and United States consumption. Total domestic use is forecast to rise by about 113% to 0.11 Mt, on higher feed, waste and dockage. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by 75% to 0.18 Mt. Flaxseed prices are forecast to decline by 17% to $550/t for 2021-22.

Flaxseed (excluding solin) [a]: January 25, 2021
2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 379 377 460
Area harvested (kha) 339 371 449
Yield (t/ha) 1.43 1.56 1.50
Production (kt) 486 578 675
Imports (kt) [b] 21 10 10
Total supply (kt) 567 652 785
Exports (kt) [c] 350 500 500
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] N/A N/A N/A
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 138 32 90
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 154 52 110
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 64 100 175
Average Price ($/t) [g] 518 665 550
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Flaxseed (No.1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • n/a: not available
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Soybeans

For 2020-21, domestic supplies of soybeans are estimated up 5% from last year, to 7.5 Mt, versus 7.1 Mt last year, as a result of a marginal increase in carry-in stocks and a 3%, or 0.2 Mt, increase in production. Soybean imports are estimated up slightly to 0.4 Mt for the current crop year compared to the 0.24 Mt imported for 2019-20.

Canadian exports of soybeans are estimated up by 23%, to 4.4 Mt for the current crop year, on support from strong world demand and higher domestic supplies. Domestic processing of soybeans are forecast to increase by 9% from last year’s pace to a historically normal 1.9 Mt, on support from strong crush margins and strong demand for vegetable oils. Soybean prices are estimated to increase by 30%, to $545/t, for the current crop year versus the simple average of $420/t earned in 2019-20.
The January 2021 release of the USDA’s WASDE projects world production of soybeans at 361 Mt, up from the 336 Mt grown in 2019-20 and similar to 361 Mt produced in 2018-19. World supplies of soybeans are predicted at 456 Mt, a 2% rise from last year as tighter beginning stocks moderate the rise in output. World domestic use of soybeans is estimated at 370 Mt, an increase of 4% from last year. Of this, domestic crush is forecast to rise by 4%, to 322 Mt, with the largest gains occurring in China, up 41% to 129 Mt. World trade is expected to reach 169 Mt, an increase of 3% from last year, while ending stocks fall to 84 Mt from 95 Mt in 2019-20.

The factors to watch for the rest of the crop year are:

  1. strength of Chinese buying,
  2. Argentine logistic issues, including a possible port strike,
  3. South American growing conditions and
  4. US planting intentions for 2021-22.

For 2021-22, planted area in Canada is forecast to rise by 12% to 2.3 Mha, on support from high prices with area gains limited by concerns over low sub soil moisture, short growing season in western Canada and attractive prices for competing crops. Assuming 5-year average yields, production is forecast at 6.6 Mt, versus 6.4 Mt in 2020-21 and 6.1 Mt grown in 2019-20.

Total supply is forecast to increase to 7.7 Mt as the rise in production and slightly higher imports more than offset the estimated drop in carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to increase by 14% to 5.0 Mt with shipments headed to a diverse group of countries. Domestic processing is forecast stable at 1.9 Mt from last year. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall nearly in half to 0.33 Mt versus the 0.60 Mt estimated for 2020-21 and the 5 year average of 0.61 Mt.

Soybean prices are forecast to fall by $45/t to $500/t, on an expected easing of US prices and a stable Canadian-US dollar exchange rate.

Soybeans [a] : January 25, 2021
2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 2,313 2,052 2,300
Area harvested (kha) 2,271 2,041 2,292
Yield (t/ha) 2.71 3.12 2.88
Production (kt) 6,145 6,359 6,600
Imports (kt) [b] 242 400 500
Total supply (kt) 7,093 7,480 7,700
Exports (kt) [c] 3,576 4,400 5,000
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 1,742 1,900 1,900
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 841 380 275
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 2,796 2,480 2,375
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 721 600 325
Average Price ($/t) [g] 419 545 500
  • [a] Crop year is September-August.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Soybeans (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada
Total Oilseeds : January 25, 2021
2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 11,172 10,839 11,410
Area harvested (kha) 11,066 10,732 11,339
Yield (t/ha) 2.37 2.39 2.40
Production (kt) 26,238 25,656 27,175
Imports (kt) [b] 418 510 610
Total supply (kt) 31,857 30,081 29,685
Exports (kt) [c] 14,095 15,800 15,900
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 11,871 11,400 11,400
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 1,685 701 614
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 13,847 12,381 12,285
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 3,915 1,900 1,500
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada
Total Grains and Oilseeds : January 25, 2021
2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 27,568 27,490 27,764
Area harvested (kha) 26,242 26,419 26,612
Yield (t/ha) 3.32 3.42 3.31
Production (kt) 87,125 90,444 88,184
Imports (kt) [b] 2,957 2,416 2,812
Total supply (kt) 104,611 106,256 103,146
Exports (kt) [c] 45,077 50,000 47,930
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 46,138 44,106 43,766
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 13,397 12,150 11,450
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Pulses and special crops

Dry peas

For 2020-21, Canadian dry pea exports for the August to November period were 1.5 million tonnes (Mt), 11% higher than for the same period last year. China imported the largest portion to-date at 1.2 Mt. The leading export market, after China, is Bangladesh and the US. Total Canadian dry pea exports for the crop year are forecast to rise marginally to 3.8 Mt due to higher export demand from China.

Canadian dry pea supply is estimated to rise by 6% as higher production is partly offset by lower carry-in stocks. With the higher supply, carry-out stocks are expected to rise but continue to be supportive for prices throughout 2020-21. The average price is expected to be 19% higher than 2019-20, mostly due to higher prices for yellow and feed peas with lower prices for green peas. Green pea prices are expected to maintain a premium of $35/t over yellow peas for the crop year, compared to the $115/t premium green peas had over yellow peas last year.

US dry pea production is estimated by the USDA at nearly 1.0 Mt, down 2% from 2019-20. This was largely due to lower seeded area and higher yields. As a result, Canadian dry pea exports to the US are forecast to be just over 0.1 Mt in 2020-21, similar to the previous year.

For 2021-22, seeded area is forecast to rise marginally from 2020-21 to a near record 1.75 million hectares (Mha), because of good returns relative to other crops. Dry peas continue to be recognized as a beneficial part of a crop rotation plan. Production is expected to fall marginally to 4.4 Mt, with an expectation of trend yields. Supply is forecast to rise marginally to 4.9 Mt due to larger carry-in stocks. With the tariff in India expected to remain, exports to other countries are expected to be marginally lower than 2020-21 and carry-out stocks are expected to rise. The average price is expected to be lower than 2020-21, due to lower pea prices and ample world supply.

Dry Peas [a]: January 25, 2021
2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,753 1,722 1,750
Area harvested (kha) 1,711 1,685 1,715
Yield (t/ha) 2.48 2.73 2.57
Production (kt) 4,237 4,594 4,400
Imports (kt) [b] 82 90 80
Total supply (kt) 4,630 4,917 4,930
Exports (b) 3,781 3,800 3,700
Total Domestic Use (c) 616 667 730
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 233 450 500
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 0 0 0
Average Price (d) 265 315 285
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Lentils

For 2020-21, Canadian lentil exports for the August to November period totaled 1.0 Mt, 53% more than the amount exported during the same period in 2019. India imported the largest portion to-date at just under 0.4 Mt. The leading export market, after India, is Turkey, followed by the United Arab Emirates. Total Canadian lentil exports for 2020-21 are forecast to fall marginally to 2.8 Mt, with the lentil import duties imposed by India. The supply of lentils in Canada is estimated to be marginally lower than last year as lower carry-in stocks were partly offset by the higher production. With the marginally lower supply and a decrease in exports, this is expected to lead to marginally lower carry-out stocks for the end of the 2020-21 crop year.

The overall average price range is forecast to rise by 24% from last year to $600/t. Stronger prices for all lentil types have combined with an average grade distribution. As a result, there have been lower discounts for the lower grades for all green lentil types. Prices for No.1 large green lentils are expected to maintain a premium of $145/t above the price of No.1 red lentils over the crop year, compared to a $105/t premium in 2019-20.

US lentil production is estimated at 336 thousand tonnes (Kt), up 40% from the previous year. As a result, Canadian lentil exports to the US are forecast at 60 Kt for 2020-21, similar to the previous year.

For 2021-22, seeded area in Canada is expected to rise by 5% to 1.8 Mha, due to strong prices for the No.1 grades in the previous year. Production is forecast to fall marginally to 2.85 Mt. With lower carry-in stocks, supply is expected to fall marginally to 3.1 Mt. Exports are forecast to fall from 2020-21 to 2.7 Mt with a smaller exportable supply. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise to 200 kt. With the assumption of an average grade distribution and grade discounts, the overall lentil price is forecast to fall from 2020-21.

Lentils [a]: January 25, 2021
2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,530 1,713 1,800
Area harvested (kha) 1,489 1,705 1,775
Yield (t/ha) 1.60 1.68 1.61
Production (kt) 2,382 2,868 2,850
Imports (kt) [b] 90 95 75
Total supply (kt) 3,327 3,172 3,100
Exports (b) 2,861 2,800 2,700
Total Domestic Use (c) 258 197 200
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 209 175 200
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 0 0 0
Average Price (d) 485 600 585
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Dry beans

For 2020-21, exports are forecast to be marginally higher than last year. The EU and the US are forecast to remain the main markets for Canadian dry beans, with smaller volumes exported to Japan and Mexico. With the record supply, carry-out stocks are expected to rise sharply from the previous year. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to decrease by 17%, due to higher production and supply in North America.

US total dry bean production (excluding chickpeas) is estimated by the USDA at a record 1.5 Mt, up 59% from 2020-21. US dry bean production was higher for all bean types, particularly of white pea and pinto bean type production, which increased sharply. This and a stronger Canadian dollar compared to the previous year is expected to continue to limit Canadian dry bean prices for 2020-21.

For 2021-22, the area seeded is forecast to be lower than 2020-21, because of favorable potential returns for other crops, particularly soybeans and corn. Production is expected to decrease to 0.36 Mt due to lower area and expected yields. Supply is expected to be higher at 0.6 Mt due to the higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be unchanged from 2020-21. Carry-out stocks are expected to be higher than the previous year. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to be similar to the previous year due to expectations for unchanged North American supply.

Dry Beans [a]: January 25, 2021
2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 160 185 160
Area harvested (kha) 150 183 154
Yield (t/ha) 2.11 2.68 2.31
Production (kt) 317 490 355
Imports (kt) [b] 75 70 75
Total supply (kt) 442 585 595
Exports (b) 361 365 365
Total Domestic Use (c) 56 55 55
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 25 165 175
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 0 0 0
Average Price (d) 985 820 825
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Chickpeas

For 2020-21, exports are forecast to be unchanged from 2019-20. The US and Pakistan have been the main markets for Canadian chickpeas to-date. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise to record levels. The average price is forecast to rise, due to strong world demand and lower carry-out stocks.

US chickpea production is estimated by USDA to fall to 194 Kt, down 32% from 2019-20, largely due to lower area.

For 2021-22, the area seeded is forecast to fall from 2020-21 because of expectations for lower returns relative to other pulse crops. As a result, production is expected to decrease by 21% to 170 kt. Supply is expected to increase marginally from last year as the lower production is partly offset by large carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be higher than the previous year and carry-out stocks are expected to rise and remain burdensome. The average price is forecast to be lower than 2020-21 due to expectations for an increase in world supply and therefore a decrease in world demand.

Chickpeas [a]: January 25, 2021
2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 159 121 100
Area harvested (kha) 156 120 97
Yield (t/ha) 1.61 1.79 1.75
Production (kt) 252 214 170
Imports (kt) [b] 48 45 50
Total supply (kt) 439 509 540
Exports (b) 105 105 125
Total Domestic Use (c) 85 84 85
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 250 320 330
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 1 2 2
Average Price (d) 490 570 545
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Mustard seed

For 2020-21, exports are expected to be marginally lower than 2019-20 at 110 Kt, but carry-out stocks are forecast to fall due to lower supply. The US and the EU are expected to remain the main export markets for Canadian mustard seed. As a result of the decrease in stocks, the average price is forecast to rise by 16% from the levels observed in 2019-20.

For 2021-22, the area seeded is expected to rise due to improved returns from the previous year. Production is forecast to rise to 145 Kt due to higher area. Supply is expected to rise only slightly due to the lower carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to be higher at 115 Kt and carry-out stocks are forecast to tighten from the previous year. The average price is forecast to be marginally lower when compared to 2020-21.

Mustard Seed [a]: January 25, 2021
2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 161 104 160
Area harvested (kha) 155 101 155
Yield (t/ha) 0.87 0.98 0.94
Production (kt) 135 99 145
Imports (kt) [b] 7 7 8
Total supply (kt) 214 166 168
Exports (b) 113 110 115
Total Domestic Use (c) 41 41 43
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 61 15 10
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 0 0 0
Average Price (d) 700 810 800
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021[f] which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Canary seed

For 2020-21, exports are expected to be similar to the previous year. The EU and Mexico are forecast to remain the main export markets, followed by South America, particularly Brazil and Columbia. Carry-out stocks are expected to tighten. As a result, the average price is forecast to increase from the 2019-20 level.

For 2021-22, the area seeded is forecast to be higher than the previous year due to good potential returns compared to other crops. Production is expected to be higher due to increased area and trend yields, but supply is forecast to be relatively unchanged. Exports are expected to be similar to 2020-21 and carry-out stocks are expected to remain tight. The average price is forecast to be lower than the previous year.

Canary Seed [a]: January 25, 2021
2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 118 111 120
Area harvested (kha) 115 110 117
Yield (t/ha) 1.52 1.46 1.45
Production (kt) 175 161 170
Imports (kt) [b] 0 0 0
Total supply (kt) 186 176 175
Exports (b) 161 160 160
Total Domestic Use (c) 9 11 10
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 15 5 5
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 0 0 0
Average Price (d) 630 650 615
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021[f] which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Sunflower seed

For 2020-21, exports are forecast to be marginally higher compared to the previous year, but carry-out stocks are expected to rise by 34%. To-date, the US has remained Canada’s main export market for sunflower seed. The average price is forecast to fall by 8% from 2019-20 due to lower prices for oilseed types grown in Canada this year.

For the US, sunflower seed production is estimated by the USDA to have risen by 53% to 1.35 Mt, largely due to record yields. About 1.2 Mt of the US sunflower seed crop is estimated to be oilseed types, higher than the previous year. US confectionery type production nearly doubled this year to over 150 kt.

For 2020-21, the global supply of sunflower seed is estimated by the USDA at 55 Mt. This is 9% lower than the record supply of last year. World exports are expected to decrease to 2.9 Mt and domestic use is expected to fall to 50 Mt. Despite this, world carry out stocks are expected to fall by 28% to 1.8 Mt, the lowest since 2002-03.

For 2021-22, the area seeded is projected to be 10 thousand hectares lower than 2020-21 due to expectations for lower returns compared to competing crops. Production is forecast to fall to 75 Kt, assuming trend yields. Supply, however, is expected to increase to 240 kt. Exports are expected to be unchanged from the previous year at 40 Kt and carry-out stocks are forecast to rise for the third consecutive year. The average price is forecast to be higher than 2020-21 with higher oil type prices, but similar confectionary type prices in Canada.

Sunflower Seed [a]: January 25, 2021
2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 31 45 35
Area harvested (kha) 29 45 34
Yield (t/ha) 2.18 2.25 2.21
Production (kt) 63 101 75
Imports (kt) [b] 26 26 25
Total supply (kt) 186 232 240
Exports (b) 37 40 40
Total Domestic Use (c) 44 52 50
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 104 140 150
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 1 2 2
Average Price (d) 620 570 585
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021[f] which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Total Pulses and Special Crops [a]: January 25, 2021
2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 3,911 4,000 4,125
Area harvested (kha) 3,804 3,949 4,047
Yield (t/ha) 1.99 2.16 2.02
Production (kt) 7,559 8,527 8,165
Imports (kt) [b] 327 333 313
Total supply (kt) 9,424 9,757 9,748
Exports (b) 7,418 7,380 7,205
Total Domestic Use (c) 1,109 1,107 1,173
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 897 1,270 1,370
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC and STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Historical data

Historical principal field crops data are available in spreadsheet format and can be obtained by emailing aafc.bulletin.aac@canada.ca. Please specify crops, crop years, and preferred file format in your request.

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