Historical Data

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2012-03-15 | ISSN 1496-967X

For 2011-12, the total production of G&O in Canada increased by 5% from 2010-11 to nearly 66 million tonnes (Mt) but total supply decreased marginally because of lower carry-in stocks. The quality of the crop has generally been average to above-average. Total exports are forecast to increase as slightly higher exports of wheat and oilseeds more than offset lower exports of coarse grains. Total carry-out stocks are expected to decrease significantly to about 15% below the 5 year average. In general, prices for G&O are expected to remain historically high, similar to 2010-11

For 2012-13, the areas seeded to all crops are forecast to rise largely due to the expected decline in area in summerfallow, assuming that a major portion of the area which was too wet to seed in western Canada in 2011 will be seeded. Normal precipitation, abandonment and crop quality are assumed. In general, average yields are expected to decrease to trend levels. Total production of G&O in Canada is forecast to increase by 6% to 70.3 million tonnes (Mt). Exports and total domestic use are forecast to increase slightly. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase but remain below average. Prices are expected to decline, but remain historically high, under pressure from the strong Canadian dollar which is forecast to be near par with the US dollar. The main factors to watch are commodity prices, input costs, precipitation in Canada during the spring and the Canada-US exchange rate.

Durum

For 2011-12, exports are forecast to increase by 6% to 3.5 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 24% to a low level of 1.2 Mt. The CWB PRO is 12% higher than for 2010-11 because of the lower world and US durum supply. World durum production rose by 1.5 Mt to 36.4 Mt, but supply decreased by 1.1 Mt to 43.9 Mt. Use is expected to decrease and the carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 0.1 Mt to 7.4 Mt.

For 2012-13, seeded area is forecast to increase by 13% from 2011-12 mostly because of low carry-in stocks and drier soil conditions than for 2011-12. Production is expected to rise by 5% to 4.4 Mt, but the lower carry-in stocks will result in a 3% decrease in supply. Exports are forecast to remain at 3.5 Mt and carry-out stocks are forecast to remain at a low 1.2 Mt. The average price is forecast to decrease from 2011-12 because of the higher world and US supply, and the expected stronger Canadian dollar. World durum production is forecast to increase to 37.5 Mt and the supply to 44.9 Mt. Although use is expected to increase, carry-out stocks are forecast to rise to 7.7 Mt.

Wheat (ex-durum)

For 2011-12, exports are forecast to increase by 6% to 13.7 Mt because of the higher quality of the 2011-12 crop and strong demand for hard wheat. Domestic use is expected to increase because of stronger demand for food, industrial and seed uses, and large carry-in stocks of low quality wheat which promote feed use. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 5% to 5.3 Mt. The CWB PRO is 14% lower than for 2010-11 because of the higher world supply. The world production of wheat (including durum) rose by 42 Mt from 2010-11 to 694 Mt and supply increased by 40 Mt to 894 Mt. Although use is expected to increase, carry-out stocks are forecast to rise by 11 Mt to 210 Mt.

For 2012-13, seeded area is forecast to increase by 10% from 2011-12 mostly because of drier soil conditions compared to 2011-12. More specifically, the area seeded to winter wheat increased by 22%, while the area seeded to spring wheat is forecast to increase by 9%. Production is expected to increase by 3% to 21.7 Mt. Supply is forecast to rise only slightly because of lower carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to increase by 4% to 14.3 Mt. Domestic use is forecast to decrease by 4% as higher food and industrial uses are more than offset by lower feed use. Carry-out stocks are expected to remain at 5.3 Mt. The average price is forecast to decrease because of the higher US and Canadian supply, and the expected stronger Canadian dollar. World production of wheat (including durum) is forecast to decrease to 680 Mt and the supply is expected to decrease to 890 Mt. Use is expected to increase and carry-out stocks are forecast to fall slightly to 207 Mt.

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Barley

For 2011-12, exports are forecast to decrease due to lack of exports of feed barley, while exports of malting barley and barley malt remain strong. Feed use is forecast to decrease slightly due to lower cattle numbers and the warmer than normal winter. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 44% to a historically low level of 0.8 Mt. The CWB PRO for Select 2Row barley is 26% higher than 2010-11 due to the low world total barley supply and below average world volumes of malting barley. The price of barley, in-store Lethbridge, is expected to average 9% higher than last year due to lower supply, near steady feed demand and lower imports of DDGS from the US. World barley production increased by 9% to 134.7 Mt but carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease slightly.

For 2012-13, seeded area is forecast to increase by 22% due to good prices and lower summerfallow. Production is forecast to increase by 16% to 9.0 Mt, but supply is forecast to increase by only 7% due to low carry-in stocks. No feed barley exports are expected and total exports are forecast to be the same as 2011-12. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by nearly 50% to 1.2 Mt but remain well below the historical average. World malt barley prices are expected to decrease due to the recovery in world production and supplies. Domestic feed barley prices are forecast to fall from 2011- 12 due to increased supply.

Corn

For 2011-12, exports are forecast to decrease dramatically to 0.4 Mt, which is below the previous ten year average. US corn exports continue to be below average due to the strong competition from Ukraine, Brazil and Argentina. Total domestic usage is forecast to remain at a near record level, although marginally lower than last year. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall slightly. World corn carry-out stocks are expected to decrease by 3% from 2010-11 due to higher total usage. The Chatham price of corn is expected to average slightly higher than last year due to due to better basis levels related to increased food and industrial use. Average world corn prices have decreased due to record high world corn production and only slightly tighter world coarse grain carry-out stocks.

For 2012-13, seeded area is forecast to increase by 5% because of good prices and lower winter wheat area in Eastern Canadian related to wet fall seeding conditions. Production is forecast to increase 5% to 11.2 Mt due to the higher area and higher yields. Imports are forecast to remain unchanged. Supply is forecast to increase by only 4% due to lower carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to remain at 0.4 Mt due to a recovery in US corn production and lower prices. Carry-out stocks are expected to increase by 16% due to higher supply.

The USDA price outlook for corn is very bearish as an increase in projected seeded area to 94 million acres and a trend yield of 164 bu/ac, versus 147.2 for 2011-12, is forecast to lead to a doubling of ending stocks of corn in the US. The large increase in the stocks/use ratio is forecast to reduce the US farm gate price for corn by nearly 20% to US$5.00/bu. However, the CBoT December 2012 futures contract has traded higher since the USDA outlook report because of world currency and production problems in South America. The USDA's prospective plantings report for 2012-13 will be released on March 30th and will be closely watched by the entire grain and oilseed market.

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Oats

For 2011-12, exports are forecast to increase to 2.2 Mt from 1.9 Mt, due to good US milling demand and a record small US oat crop. Total domestic usage is forecast to increase by 2% to due to trend demand increases. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease 15% to 0.65 Mt due to the higher export pace. World oat production increased by 3.5 Mt to 23.1 Mt and supply increased by 11% to 27.2 Mt. Despite strong US basis values, the average price for oats is expected to be lower than last year due to lower corn prices and the loss of the premium that oats once had over corn.

For 2012-13, seeded area is forecast to increase by 27% due to a recovery in production on the Eastern Prairies. This intended area is similar to last spring's before wet conditions reduced the total hectares seeded. Production is forecast to increase 18% to 3.6 Mt due to the increase in seeded area and trend yields. Supply is forecast to increase by only 11% due to low carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to increase marginally due to lower oat production in the US and population based increases in US milling demand. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase significantly due to increased supply. Prices are forecast to decrease due to the increase in lower US corn prices and higher Canadian oat production and world coarse grain production.

Rye

For 2011-12, exports are forecast to decrease due to lower production and total supply. The export pace remains strong despite the very tight supplies. As with Canadian oats, the US remains the world's largest rye importer with Canada as its largest supplier. Total domestic usage is forecast to decrease by 27% due to lower supply. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 80% to near historic lows of 0.01 Mt due to low supply. Domestic prices have risen sharply this year and should remain strong for the balance of the crop year. World rye production increased by 5.0% to 13.5 Mt but the total supply decreased by 3% to 15.2 Mt due to low carry-in stocks. World carry-out stocks remain very tight at 0.9 Mt.

For 2012-13, seeded area is forecast to increase by 23% due to very favourable fall seeding conditions. Production is forecast to increase by 36% due to the recovery in seeded area and trend yields. Total supply is forecast to increase by 12% due to higher production but still remain well-below the 10 year average. Exports and total domestic use are forecast to remain historically low due to the tight supply. Carry-out stocks are expected to increase but remain well below the 10-year average. Despite bearish coarse grain fundamentals, rye prices are forecast to decrease only slightly from 2011- 12 due to the tight supply and carryout situation.

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Canola

For 2011-12, exports are forecast to increase by 18%, to a record 8.4 Mt on strong Chinese demand, possible new-crop production problems in the EU-27 and ample domestic supplies. Total domestic use is forecast to rise by 7%, to a record 6.9 Mt, on expanded crush capacity. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall to a tight 0.7 Mt for a stocks-to-use ratio of 5%. Prices are forecast to ease slightly from the record highs set last year but are expected to remain well above the 5 year average.

For 2012-13, seeded area is forecast to increase by 8% to a record high, surpassing wheat ex-durum as the largest seeded area crop in Canada. The gain is supported by historically strong prices and expected attractive yields. Production is forecast to rise by 9% to a record 15.4 Mt. However, supply is expected to increase only slightly due to very low carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to remain at 8.4 Mt, while domestic crush expands to 6.8 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise by about 21% and are expected to support a steady crush and export pace prior to harvest. Prices are forecast to decline marginally under pressure from lower world soybean and palm oil prices, with support provided by strong world demand and possible tightening of world supplies following lowered production forecasts for South American soybeans.

Flaxseed (excluding solin)

For 2011-12, exports are forecast to fall by 13% under competition from increased Black Sea supplies. Total domestic use is forecast to fall by 5% under pressure from high prices. Carry-out stocks are forecast at 0.1 Mt for a stocks-to-use ratio of 21%. Flaxseed prices are forecast to fall slightly on reduced exports to the EU-27.

For 2012-13, seeded area is forecast to rise by 10% but, due to lower average yields, production is forecast to rise only marginally. Supply is forecast to decline by 16% due to sharply lower carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to fall slightly on weaker world demand. Total domestic use is forecast to fall by 27%, well-below the 5 year average. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease and will remain historically low. Prices are expected to ease slightly due to the rise in world oilseed and vegetable oil production combined with steady demand.

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Soybeans

For 2011-12, exports are forecast to fall slightly, to 2.7 Mt, leaving soybeans as Canada's 4th largest exported crop. Total domestic usage is forecast to fall by 3% on a slower crush pace. Carry-out stocks are forecast to remain unchanged at 0.3 Mt. Prices are forecast to moderate slightly under pressure from lower US prices and the near-par Canadian dollar.

For 2012-13, planted area is forecast to rise by 7%, due to attractive prices and lower input needs compared to competing crops. However, production is forecast to decrease only slightly due lower yields. Supply is forecast to fall due to lower production. Exports are forecast to remain strong on solid world demand for conventional and food-grade soybeans. Total domestic usage is forecast to rise slightly on a steady crush pace. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decline slightly but are expected to remain adequate. Prices are forecast to remain stable as the impact of lower world production, high US prices and a strong Canadian dollar cancel each other out.

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Canada: Grains and Oilseeds Outlook (PDF Version, 44 KB)