Length of growing season in the Prairie Region

Note: Some of the content is wider than usual.

Baseline: 1971 to 2000

Growing season (1971 to 2000) for the prairies

Description of this image follows.
Description - Growing season (1971 to 2000) for the prairies

Map representing the length of growing season days based on current agricultural extent data (1971 to 2000) for the Prairies.

Current agricultural extent:

The southern half of the region, extending northwest from the Ontario border east of Winnipeg to the area north of Prince Albert through to an area halfway between Edmonton and Fort McMurray and ending on the British Columbia border northeast of Grande Prairie. To the west, the extent begins in the southwest corner of the region, extends along the British Columbia border to a point southwest of Calgary, continues north to an area southeast of Grande Prairie and then extends west to the British Columbia border. It excludes an area south of Lesser Slave Lake. The northern extent extends in a band north-northeast of Grande Prairie past halfway between the city and the border with the Northwest Territories. It includes unconnected areas that are north of the main northern extent southwest of Fort McMurray, and northeast of Prince Albert.

Baseline: 1971 to 2000 - Current agricultural extent: Growing season
Greater than
170 days
160 to 170
days
150 to 160
days
140 to 150
days
130 to 140
days
120 to 130
days
110 to 120
days
100 to 110
days
Less than
100 days
Alberta (including: Fort McMurray, Grande Prairie, Edmonton, Red Deer, Calgary, Medicine Hat, Lethbridge) No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Saskatchewan (including: Prince Albert, North Battleford, Saskatoon, Moose Jaw, Regina) No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Manitoba (including: Brandon, Winnipeg) No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Climate change scenario: 2010 to 2039

Growing season (2010 to 2039) in the prairies

Description of this image follows.
Description - Growing season (2010 to 2039) in the prairies

Map representing the length of growing season days based on climate change scenario data (2010 to 2039) for the Prairies.

Current agricultural extent:

The southern half of the region, extending northwest from the Ontario border east of Winnipeg to the area north of Prince Albert through to an area halfway between Edmonton and Fort McMurray and ending on the British Columbia border northeast of Grande Prairie. To the west, the extent begins in the southwest corner of the region, extends along the British Columbia border to a point southwest of Calgary, continues north to an area southeast of Grande Prairie and then extends west to the British Columbia border. It excludes an area south of Lesser Slave Lake. The northern extent extends in a band north-northeast of Grande Prairie past halfway between the city and the border with the Northwest Territories. It includes unconnected areas that are north of the main northern extent southwest of Fort McMurray, and northeast of Prince Albert.

Climate Change Scenario: 2010 to 2039 - Current agricultural extent: Growing season
Greater than
170 days
160 to 170
days
150 to 160
days
140 to 150
days
130 to 140
days
120 to 130
days
110 to 120
days
100 to 110
days
Less than
100 days
Alberta (including: Fort McMurray, Grande Prairie, Edmonton, Red Deer, Calgary, Medicine Hat, Lethbridge) No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Saskatchewan (including: Prince Albert, North Battleford, Saskatoon, Moose Jaw, Regina) No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No
Manitoba (including: Brandon, Winnipeg) No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Summary of length of growing season comparing 1971 to 2000 to projected climate change in 2010 to 2039

The Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM 3.1) model predicts a 1 to 2 degree Celsius increase in monthly average temperatures by 2010 to 2039, resulting in slightly earlier crop seeding dates, and later fall frost dates on the prairies.

Summary of length of growing season comparing 1971 to 2000 to projected climate change in 2010 to 2039
Length of
Growing Season (days)
1971 to 2000 Baseline
(Percent of total area)
2010 to 2039 CGCM 3.1
(Percent of total area)
> 170 0.0 0.0
160 to 170 0.0 0.1
150 to 160 0.5 3.2
140 to 150 5.9 23.1
130 to 140 27.2 30.2
120 to 130 25.2 17.6
110 to 120 15.8 10.1
100 to 110 11.1 8.7
< 100 14.2 7.4

Climate data and future scenario:

Limitations

Maps prepared by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's Science and Technology Branch (STB) in partnership with Environment Canada's National Service Office-Agriculture.

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