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Consumer Profile – United Kingdom

April 2020

Executive summary

The United Kingdom (UK) is the third most populated country in the European Union (EU), with a recorded 66.5 million inhabitants in 2018. London, England, is the UK's capital city and has a population of 13.8 million.

In 2018, the number of UK inhabitants living in urban areas accounted for 83.4% of the country's total population, while the number of inhabitants of the top ten UK cities was 29.8 million and is expected to remain relatively stable through to 2023.

The gender ratio of people residing in the UK was nearly split in half in 2018, with 33.4 million females and 33.1 males. The number of people in the UK aged 15 to 64 was 42.7 million in 2018, while the median age was 40.5 that year and is expected to hover thereabouts through to 2023.

The birth rate per thousand people in 2018 was 11.8, down from 12.1 in 2014, and expected to decline by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.2% between 2019 and 2023. The projected average life expectancy for someone in the UK is 81.4 years for 2023, while the death rate per thousand people in 2023 is anticipated to be 9.6. The number of UK households in 2018 reached 27.5 million, with an average of 2.4 people, and the majority of households–19.5 million–did not have children.

Average UK annual wages for 2018 were US$47.6 thousand–a drop from US$54.4 thousand in 2014–while the per capita gross domestic product decreased to US$42.5 thousand that year.

The per capita food and beverage expenditure (PCE) in the UK was US$2,686.4 for 2018 and is projected to increase by a 1.8% CAGR from 2019 to 2023.

The health and wellness (H&W) market in the UK was valued at US$39.2 billion in 2018, and is expected to continue growing by a CAGR of 4.3% between 2019 and 2022. The two H&W subsectors with the most influence were naturally healthy (NH) and food minus, with a combined total of US$2.37 billion in retail sales in 2018.

The organic food market in the UK, calculated separately from H&W, was valued at US$1.9 billion and is projected to reach US$2.2 billion by 2022, while earning a 5.8% CAGR during the period beginning 2019.

Key demographic indicators

The United Kingdom consists of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The UK recorded a population of 66.5 million inhabitants in 2018 and is expected to reach 68.3 million by 2023.

The rural population in the UK has been on a steady decline over the past several years, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of −1.1% from 2014 to 2018, and will continue to decrease by an additional −1.4% into 2023. The urban population, however, is on an opposite trajectory and is projected to reach 57.8 million inhabitants by 2023 with a CAGR of 1.1% during the forecasted period of 2019 to 2023.

In 2014, 82.4% of the UK's population lived in urban areas while the remaining 17.6% resided rurally. Fast forwarding to 2023, 84.6% of the population in the UK is expected to live in urban areas, while the remaining 15.4% will live rurally.

United Kingdom populationurban and ruralhistorical/forecasted (million), 2014 to 2023
2014 2018 CAGR* % 2014-2018 2019 2023 CAGR* % 2019-2023
Total population 64.6 66.5 0.7 66.9 68.3 0.5
Urban population 53.2 55.4 1.0 55.9 57.8 0.8
Rural population 11.4 11.0 −0.9 10.9 10.5 −0.9
Urban - % of total 82.4% 83.4% 0.3 83.7% 84.6% 0.3
Rural - % of total 17.6% 16.6% −1.5 16.3% 15.4% −1.4

Source: GlobalData, 2019

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

The top ten most populated UK cities accounted for 44.8% of the total 66.5 million inhabitants in 2018 and are predominately located in England; Glasgow, Scotland, is the outlier, and was in 4th place overall that year. The population growth in these cities is expected to remain relatively stable from 2019 to 2023, with a CAGR of 0.6%; the total population of these cities should hover around 30.4 million people by 2023.

United Kingdom population10 most populous citieshistorical/forecasted (million), 2014 to 2023
2014 2018 CAGR* % 2014-2018 2019 2023 CAGR* % 2019-2023
Total population United Kingdom 64.6 66.5 0.9 66.9 68.3 0.7
London, England 13.8 14.4 1.4 14.5 14.8 0.7
Manchester, England 3.2 3.3 0.7 3.3 3.4 0.4
West Midlands, England 2.5 2.5 0.8 2.6 2.6 0.4
Glasgow, Scotland 1.8 1.8 0.3 1.8 1.9 0.2
Liverpool, England 1.5 1.5 0.4 1.5 1.5 0.2
Leicester, England 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.4 1.5 0.5
Hertfordshire, England 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.3 0.9
Newcastle upon Tyne, England 1.2 1.2 0.4 1.2 1.2 0.2
Birmingham, England 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.2 0.9
Bristol, England 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.6
Total top 10 United Kingdom cities 28.8 29.8 1.1 29.9 30.4 0.6

Source: GlobalData, 2019

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

The gender ratio in the UK for 2018 was very close to evenly split with 33.1 million males verses 33.4 million females, while the number of residents under the age of 15 was 11.7 million, the number aged 16 to 64 was 42.7 million and the number aged 65 and older was 12.1 million

In the UK, the population within age groups 0-14 and 15-64 remained relatively stable between 2014 and 2018, while the Baby Boomer generation continues to grow, similar to many Western countries. By 2023, it is estimated that 13.0 million of the 68.3 million people living in the UK will be aged 65+, a CAGR of 2.1% over the 2019 forecast, and an increase from 11.3 million in 2014. In comparison, the population between the ages 0-14 and 15-64 is only expected to increase by a CAGR of 0.4% between 2019 and 2023.

The median age for UK residents was 40.5 in 2018, and is forecasted to increase to 40.9 by 2023. It is projected that the median age for males will be 39.9 while that of females will be 42.0 in 2023.

United Kingdom population by age grouphistorical/forecasted, 2014 to 2023
Category 2014 2018 CAGR* % 2014-2018 2019 2023 CAGR* % 2019-2023
Total Population United Kingdom (million) 64.6 66.5 0.7 66.9 68.3 0.5
Population aged 0-14 11.2 11.7 1.1 11.8 11.9 0.2
Population aged 15-64 42.1 42.7 0.4 42.8 43.3 0.3
Population aged 65+ 11.3 12.1 1.7 12.3 13.0 1.4
Median age 40.4 40.5 0.1 40.5 40.9 0.2
Male 39.2 39.3 0.1 39.4 39.9 0.3
Female 41.6 41.7 0.1 41.7 42.0 0.2

Source: GlobalData, 2019

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

The fertility rate in the UK has remained static at an average of 1.9 children born per female of childbearing age between 2014 and 2018, and is expected to remain the same through to 2023 while the birth rates of both females and males is estimated to drop by a CAGR of −1.2% between 2019 and 2023.

The average life expectancy of a male and a female in the UK was 78.3 and 82.7 years, respectively, in 2014. By 2023, the average life expectancy for someone living in the UK will be an estimated 81.4 years; the death rate in 2023 is projected to be 9.6 deaths per thousand.

United Kingdom population-birth, fertility and death rates-historical/forecasted, 2014 to 2023
Category 2014 2018 CAGR* % 2014-2018 2019 2023 CAGR* % 2019-2023
Total population United Kingdom (million) 64.6 66.5 0.7 66.9 68.3 0.5
Birth rate per '000 12.1 11.8 −0.6 11.7 11.3 −0.9
Female 5.9 5.7 −0.9 5.7 5.5 −0.9
Male 6.2 6.0 −0.8 6.0 5.8 −0.8
Fertility rate (per '000) 1.9 1.9 −0.0 1.9 1.9 −0.0
Death rate (per '000) 9.3 9.4 0.3 9.4 9.6 0.5
Life expectancy (average) 80.4 80.9 0.2 81 81.4 0.1
Female 82.7 83.2 0.2 83.4 83.8 0.1
Male 78.3 78.7 0.1 78.8 79.1 0.1

Source: GlobaData, 2019

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Among the 66.5 million UK inhabitants there were 27.5 million households in 2018, and an average household size of 2.4 people. The number of households with children that year was 8.0 million, while that with no children was more than double at 19.5 million. Between 2019 and 2023, the number of households with children is expected to decrease by a CAGR of −0.3%, while the trend for households without children is anticipated to increase to 20.8 million, a CAGR of 1.7% for that period.

In 2018, the number of married individuals remained stable in the UK with a recorded 23.6 million, while 34.4 million people preferred to maintain an unmarried status. That year, 5.4 million people filed for divorce and 3.4 million were widowed.

United Kingdom population-number of households-historical/forecasted (million), 2014 to 2023
Category 2014 2018 CAGR* % 2014-2018 2019 2023 CAGR* % 2019-2023
Number of households 26.7 27.5 0.7 27.7 28.7 0.9
With children 7.9 8.0 0.3 8.0 7.9 −0.3
Without children 18.8 19.5 0.9 19.7 20.8 1.4
Average household size 2.4 2.4 0.0 2.4 2.4 0.0
Marital status
Unmarried 32.4 34.4 1.5
Married 23.7 23.6 −0.1
Divorced 5.2 5.4 0.9
Widowed 3.5 3.4 −0.7

Source: GlobaData, 2019

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Key economic indicators

The average annual wage earned in the UK was US$47.6 thousand in 2018, nearly US$7.0 thousand less than the average annual wage in 2014. Average annual wages are projected to increase by a CAGR of 2.7% between 2019 and 2023.

Literacy rates in the UK for all age groups is approximately 99.0% and the total number of students is expected to remain relatively stable, with 13.7 million enrolments projected for 2023. In 2018, 4.85 million students were enrolled at the primary level while 6.1 million were registered at the secondary school level, and 2.4 million were tertiary students.

United Kingdom average gross income and educational levels - historical/forecasted US$, 2014 to 2023
Category 2014 2018 CAGR* % 2014-2018 2019 2023 CAGR* % 2019-2023
Average annual wages (thousand) 54.4 47.6 −3.3 47.0 51.0 2.1
Total number of students (million) 13.5 13.8 0.6 13.9 14.4 0.9
Primary 4.5 4.9 2.2 5.0 5.3 1.5
Secondary 6.6 6.4 −0.8 6.4 6.5 0.4
Tertiary 2.4 2.5 1.0 2.5 2.6 1.0

Source: GlobaData, 2019

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

The UK's per capita nominal gross domestic product (GPD) was US$42,516 in 2018, having decreased by US$4,500 from 2014. By 2023, the GDP per capita is expected to rise by an additional US$5,350 and the country's real GPD growth is expected to remain relatively stable at 1.6%.

The real GDP growth rate in the UK was 1.4% in 2018, having decreased from 2.9% from 2014, a significant drop of 22.1% CAGR for that period. The GDP per household shrank from US$113.5 thousand to US$102.5 thousand between 2014 and 2018, and is expected to continue dropping in 2019. However, it has been predicted that household GDP will return to US$113.0 thousand by 2023 and experience a growth rate of 12.6% for the period of 2019 to 2023.

United Kingdom economic figures-historical/forecasted US$, 2014 to 2023
Category 2014 2018 CAGR* % 2014-2018 2019 2023 CAGR* % 2019-2023
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (trillion) 3.0 2.8 −2.4 2.8 3.3 4.8
Real GDP growth (%) 2.9 1.4 −22.1 1.3 1.6 8.1
GDP per household (thousand) 113.5 102.5 3.4 101.4 113.0 3.7
GDP per household growth (%) 2.7 0.4 −48.3 0.56 0.8 12.6
GDP per capita (thousand) 47.0 42.5 −3.3 42.4 48.0 4.1

Source: GlobaData, 2019

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Food and beverage expenditure

The per capita expenditure (PCE) on food and beverages in the UK decreased to US$2,686.4 in 2018, a decline of 1.3% CAGR for the period beginning 2014; however, it is expected to increase to US$2,731.5 in 2019. This trend is projected to regain momentum by 2023 and earn a CAGR of 1.8% over the five-year period starting 2019.

Expenditure on food in the UK has been declining over the past several years, reaching a US$1,586.4 per capita in 2018, down from US$1,858.3 in 2014. The projected CAGR on per capita food expenditure for the period of 2019 to 2023 is 1.7%, and is expected to increase to US$1,725.0 by 2023.

The PCE on alcoholic drinks in the UK was US$857.5 in 2018, and is anticipated to reach $US947.8 by 2023, a positive CAGR increase of 2.1% over the 2019 to 2023 period, while total per capita expenditure for non-alcoholic drinks was US$242.5 in 2018.

United Kingdom per capita expenditure-food and beverages - historical/forecasted US$, 2014 to 2023
Consumer expenditure 2014 2018 CAGR* % 2014-2018 2019 2023 CAGR* % 2019-2023
Food 1,858.3 1,586.4 −3.9 1,611.6 1,725.0 1.7
Bakery and cereals 322.4 274.2 −4.0 278.7 296.1 1.5
Confectionery 152.9 134.6 −3.1 138.0 151.8 2.4
Dairy and soy food 308.0 252.4 −4.9 255.3 271.3 1.5
Fish and seafood 77.8 70.3 −2.5 72.0 79.6 2.5
Ice cream 45.2 41.9 −1.9 43.4 49.9 3.6
Meat 423.7 347.6 −4.8 349.8 364.5 1.0
Meat substitutes 8.0 8.6 2.0 9.1 11.2 5.2
Oils and fats 12.3 10.8 −3.3 11.1 12.3 2.6
Other canned food 24.4 20.9 −3.8 21.2 22.4 1.4
Other dried food 10.7 9.4 −3.3 9.5 10.0 1.3
Other frozen food 38.4 35.5 −1.9 36.3 40.3 2.6
Pasta and noodles 21.6 18.1 −4.3 18.3 18.5 0.3
Prepared Meals 109.2 93.9 −3.7 94.9 100.4 1.4
Savory and deli foods 86.1 72.9 −4.1 73.8 78.3 1.5
Savory Snacks 101.3 95.2 −1.5 98.3 108.7 2.6
Seasonings, dressings and sauces 75.7 63.5 −4.3 64.4 67.8 1.3
Soups 20.1 18.5 −2.1 19.1 22.0 3.5
Syrups and spreads 20.6 18.2 −3.1 18.6 20.0 1.9
Non-alcoholic beverages 288.2 242.5 −4.2 246.9 266.2 1.9
Hot drinks 85.6 76.8 −2.7 78.6 86.4 2.4
Soft drinks 202.6 165.7 −4.9 168.4 179.8 1.7
Alcoholic beverages 684.9 857.5 5.8 873.0 947.8 2.1
Spirits 387.8 371.7 −1.1 387.5 439.5 3.2
Wine 77.3 316.5 42.2 321.3 341.4 1.5
Beer and cider 219.8 169.3 −6.3 164.3 167.0 0.4
Total expenditure 2,831.4 2,686.4 −1.3 2,731.5 2,939.0 1.8

Source: GlobaData, 2019

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Health and wellness

The health and wellness (H&W) sector continues to gain traction worldwide and the UK is no exception. The subsectors of H&W for this particular analysis include naturally healthy (NH), food minus, free from, functional and fortified (F&F) and food intolerence.

The H&W sector in the UK recorded retail sales of US$35.4 million in 2014; sales increased to US$39.2 million in 2018, with a CAGR of 3.4% during that period. Projections estimate that retail sales of H&W products in the UK will reach US$43.7 million, with a CAGR of 4.3%, during the three years leading up to the end of 2022.

United Kingdom health and wellness market - historical/forecasted retail value - US$ billion
Categories 2014 2018 CAGR* % 2014-2018 2019 2022 CAGR* % 2019-2022
Total health and wellness 35.4 39.2 3.4 40.2 43.7 4.3
Naturally healthy 11.1 12.3 3.3 12.5 13.5 4.1
Food minus

10.7

11.4 2.2 11.7 12.4 3.2
Free from 6.1 6.6 6.7 6.7 7.1 7.3
Functional and fortified 5.2 6.3 2.3 6.6 7.6 3.1
Food intolerance 2.3 2.6 4.9 2.7 3.0 5.3

Source: GlobaData, 2019

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Note: 2022 forecast in lieu as 2023 forecast was incomplete at the time of publication

The naturally healthy market

In the UK, the top subsector within health and wellness retail sales for 2018 was the naturally healthy market with a total of US$12.3 billion, up from US$11.1 billion in 2014. Projected sales of naturally healthy products are expected to continue growing with a CAGR of 4.1% for the three-year period beginning 2019 and are estimated to reach US$13.5 billion by the end of 2022.

The combined retails sales of soft drinks, bakery and cereals, and dairy and soy food accounted for 90.6% of all naturally healthy alternatives in 2018 and are anticipated to reach US$12.1 billion by 2022.

United Kingdom naturally healthy market - historical/forecasted retail value - US$ million
Category 2014 2018 CAGR* % 2014-2018 2019 2022 CAGR* % 2019-2022
Total aturally healthy 11,114.5 12,258.6 3.3 12,479.2 13,524.3 4.1
Soft drinks 4,644.1 5,216.1 3.9 5,239.3 5,612.1 3.5
Bakery and cereals 3,373.3 3,657.6 2.7 3,751.4 4,034.2 3.7
Dairy and soy food 2,152.9 2,237.3 1.3 2,280.4 2,489.1 4.5
Fish and Seafood 274.9 327.6 6.0 344.1 390.6 6.6
Oils and fats 198.9 228.0 4.6 238.7 267.8 5.9
Confectionery 142.6 164.8 4.9 170.3 191.1 5.9
Ice cream 117.6 187.5 16.8 207.1 269.2 14.0
Syrups and spreads 75.4 86.4 4.7 89.3 98.0 4.7
Pasta and noodles 61.4 68.4 3.7 70.2 74.2 2.8
Seasonings, dressings and sauces 47.8 52.0 2.9 53.7 58.1 4.0
Soups 16.9 21.0 7.5 22.3 25.9 7.7
Savory snacks 8.8 11.9 10.4 12.4 14.0 6.4

Source: GlobaData, 2019

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Note:2022 forecast in lieu as 2023 forecast was incomplete at the time of publication

The food minus market

The food minus subcategory within the H&W market was the runner-up to naturally healthy (NH) in the UK, having recorded retail sales of US$11.4 billion during 2018; this subcategory is expected to grow by an additional US$1.0 billion in 2022 with a CAGR of 3.2% for the three-year period beginning 2019. The highest performing products were dairy and soy food, soft drinks and meat, with US$9.6 billion and 84.4% of retail sales within the food minus subcategory of H&W.

United Kingdom food minus market - historical/forecasted retail value - US$ million
Category 2014 2018 CAGR* % 2014-2018 2019 2022 CAGR* % 2019-2022
Total food minus 10,724.3 11,433.4 2.2 11,657.4 12,422.8 3.2
Dairy and soy food 4,226.6 4,446.8 1.7 4,536.6 4,900.2 3.9
Soft drinks 3,748.3 3,903.8 1.4 3,934.7 4,029.5 1.2
Meat 1,229.6 1,299.7 1.9 1,327.4 1,408.8 3.0
Bakery and cereals 652.8 743.6 4.4 772.1 846.5 4.7
Savory snacks 571.1 709.3 7.5 750.0 871.0 7.8
Prepared meals 252.7 279.8 3.5 286.4 311.1 4.2
Syrups and spreads 14.3 16.9 5.7 17.6 19.7 5.8
Ice cream 18.8 21.0 3.9 21.8 23.7 4.1
Pasta and noodles 4.3 5.8 9.8 6.2 7.4 9.6
Confectionery 5.9 6.6 4.3 4.5 4.9 4.4

Source: GlobaData, 2019

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Note: 2022 forecast in lieu as 2023 forecast was incomplete at the time of publication

The free from market

Free from food and beverage retail sales experienced exponential growth between 2014 to 2018 and sales are expected to continue increasing over the next three years.

From 2014 to 2018, the free from market in the UK grew by a CAGR of 6.7%, reaching an all-time high of US$6.3 billion in 2018. By 2022, free from retail sales in the UK are expected to reach a total of US$7.6 billion, which is US$1.0 billion over the US$6.6 billion projected for 2019.

The top two subcategories within the free from market in 2018 were dairy and soy food and soft drinks, within a combined total of US$4.0 billion in retail sales. The soft drinks category recorded a CAGR of 12.6% during the period of 2014 to 2018 and is expected to grow by an additional 11.2% CAGR over 2019 to 2022, surpassing the dairy and soy food market and reaching potential retail sales of US$2.7 billion US.

United Kingdom free from market - historical/forecasted retail value - US$ million
Category 2014 2018 CAGR* % 2014-2018 2019 2022 CAGR* % 2019-2022
Free from 5,195.9 6,303.3 6.7 6,620.8 7,624.9 7.3
Dairy and soy food 1,809.4 1,958.1 2.7 2,015.8 2,234.4 5.3
Soft drinks 1,410.4 2,011.9 12.6 2,170.4 2,683.2 11.2
Savory snacks 792.1 918.2 5.0 953.8 1,045.6 4.7
Confectionery 544.5 605.0 3.6 625.0 681.6 4.4
Bakery and cereals 272.7 340.3 7.7 360.3 413.7 7.2
Ice cream 218.5 264.5 6.6 280.1 323.2 7.4
Seasonings, dressings and sauces 110.7 163.4 13.9 172.5 196.7 6.8
Syrups and spreads 35.1 39.0 3.6 40.0 43.4 4.1
Prepared meals 2.5 2.9 5.9 3.0 3.3 4.6

Source: GlobaData, 2019

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Note: 2022 forecast in lieu as 2023 forecast was incomplete at the time of publication

The fortified and functional market

As a whole, fortified and functional (F&F) food retail sales in the UK increased by a CAGR of 2.3% between 2014 and 2018, and are anticipated to earn a 3.1% CAGR during the three-year period of 2019 to 2022.

Fortified and functional foods accounted for US$6.6 billion of H&W retail sales in 2018. The soft drinks and bakery and cereals subcategories represented 92.7% of all F&F food sales, and are expected to continue a steady growth well into 2022 with US$6.6 billion by year end.

United Kingdom functional and fortified market - historical/forecasted retail value - US$ million
Category 2014 2018 CAGR* % 2014-2018 2019 2022 CAGR* % 2019-2022
Total F&F 6,140.3 6,575.4 2.3 6,703.8 7,120.9 3.1
Soft drinks 3,533.5 3,563.1 0.3 3,575.0 3,612.0 0.5
Bakery and cereals 2,153.0 2,531.4 5.5 2,631.2 2,970.0 6.2
Dairy and soy food 392.1 410.6 1.5 422.5 455.2 3.8
Confectionery 53.7 60.7 4.2 64.9 72.0 5.3
Oils and fats 7.9 9.6 6.7 10.2 11.7 7.3

Source: GlobaData, 2019

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Note: 2022 forecast in lieu as 2023 forecast was incomplete at the time of publication

The food intolerence market

The food intolerance (FI) subcategory has historically been the smallest within the market for the UK. That being said, food intolerance has seen a steady growth over the past decade and the UK is no exception.

In 2018, the FI market recorded retail sales of US$2.6 billion and a 4.9% CAGR during the four years beginning in 2014. Further growth in the FI subcategory of H&W is anticipated, with retail sales projected to reach US$3.0 billion by year end 2022 and a further growth of 5.3% CAGR during the three years leading up to the end of 2022.

The subsectors with the most growth between 2014 and 2018 within the FI market were savory snacks with a 12.6% CAGR and seasonings, dressings and sauces with a 21.2% CAGR. These two subsectors combined had total retail sales of US$775.7 million in 2018 and are expected to grow to US$916.8 million by 2022. Other FI subsectors of major significance in 2018 included bakery and cereals as well as dairy and soy food with retail sales amounting to US$743.4 million and US$709.8 million, respectively.

United Kingdom food intolerance market - historical/forecasted retail value - US$ million
Category 2014 2018 CAGR* % 2014-2018 2019 2022 CAGR* % 2019-2022
Total FI 2,262.8 2,608.5 4.9 2,709.6 3,002.1 5.3
Bakery andcCereals 669.5 743.4 3.6 769.6 831.2 3.9
Dairy and soy food 740.7 709.8 −1.4 737.1 842.0 6.9
Savory Snacks 345.5 493.9 12.6 520.3 592.6 6.7
Seasonings, dressings and sauces 158.4 281.8 21.2 294.1 324.1 5.0
Prepared meals 136.0 153.2 4.1 156.8 170.7 4.3
Ice cream 100.7 98.6 −0.7 99.1 95.9 −1.6
Soups 33.2 41.8 8.0 44.4 51.5 7.6
Savory and deli foods 38.6 41.8 2.7 43.1 46.5 4.0
Pasta and noodles 30.6 33.4 2.9 34.0 35.3 1.9
Oils and fats 6.6 7.4 3.9 7.7 8.5 5.2
Confectionery 3.0 3.4 4.9 3.4 3.7 5.2

Source: GlobaData, 2019

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Note: 2022 forecast in lieu as 2023 forecast was incomplete at the time of publication

The organic food market

Although technically classified as health and wellness food, organic retail sales are calculated separately. Organic products earn an accreditation or certification that may overlap with product attributes within the H&W market and have therefore been measured independently to avoid being included in multiple subcategories.

The market for organic food has been gaining traction globally over the past several decades, with rising consumer awareness regarding the impact of genetically modified organisms (GMO) and chemically treated produce. Buyers are increasingly demanding transparency, ethically produced and certified food, and the UK is following these trends.

The organic retail sales market in the UK was valued at US$1.9 billion in 2018, up from US$1.7 billion in 2014 with a CAGR of 4.5% over the foyr-year period. By 2022, it is projected that retail sales of organic food in the UK will reach US$2.2 billion, with an anticipated CAGR of 5.8% over 2019 estimates.

The largest subsector in the UK within the organic food market in 2018 was by far dairy and soy food, which was valued at US$1.1 billion, having grown by a CAGR of 2.8% from 2014. Organic dairy and soy food retail sales are expected to climb by a CAGR of 4.6% between 2019 and 2022, and to reach US$1.3 billion by period's end.

The organic retail sales subcategory in second place between 2014 and 2018 was ice cream, with a CAGR of 16.8% for that period, while bakery and cereals earned third place with a value of US$133.8 million in 2018.

United Kingdom organic market - historical/forecasted retail value - US$ million
Category 2014 2018 CAGR* % 2014-2018 2019 2022 CAGR* % 2019-2022
Total organic 1,671.4 1,905.7 4.5 1,975.8 2,210.7 5.8
Dairy and soy food 1,029.4 1,119.3 2.8 1,143.2 1,250.4 4.6
Ice cream 117.6 187.5 16.8 207.1 269.2 14.0
Bakery and cereals 117.4 133.8 4.5 139.2 154.4 5.3
Confectionery 102.7 118.8 5.0 127.3 143.1 6.0
Meat 100.2 106.1 1.9 108.6 115.5 3.1
Pasta and noodles 72.0 81.1 4.1 83.5 89.1 3.3
Soups 49.5 62.2 7.9 66.1 76.6 7.7
Seasonings, dressings and sauces 47.8 52.0 2.9 53.7 58.1 4.0
Savory snacks 24.3 32.7 10.5 34.5 39.9 7.5
Syrups and spreads 9.9 10.8 2.9 11.0 11.8 3.6
Soft drinks .5 1.3 40.0 1.6 2.6 28.9

Source: GlobaData, 2019

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Note: 2022 forecast in lieu as 2023 forecast was incomplete at the time of publication

For more information

International Trade Commissioners can provide Canadian industry with on-the-ground expertise regarding market potential, current conditions and local business contacts, and are an excellent point of contact for export advice.

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Resources

Consumer profile – United Kingdom
Global Analysis Report

Prepared by: André Ajaltouny, Market Analyst

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