Sector Trend Analysis - Bakery Products In Mexico

March 2018

Executive summary

Mexico is the eighth-largest retail market for bakery products worldwide and the second-largest in the Latin American region, with retail sales worth US$17.6 billion in 2016.

The baked goods category led the way in the bakery products’ categories, representing 80.1% of the sector’s market share in 2016, followed by the biscuits and snack bars category with 16.4% market share and breakfast cereals category with 3.5%.

In 2016, Mexico imported US$42.3 million worth of bakery-related products from Canada, which made up 12.6% of Mexico’s imports from the world.

Mexican consumers are increasingly interested in healthier food and convenient bakery options that are low in sugar and contain nutritious ingredients. As a result, manufacturers of bakery products are reformulating their bakery product lines and modifying their product packaging in design and claims to address consumers’ health concerns.

From 2012 to 2016, there were 4,863 bakery products launched in Mexico. Over 71% of the products were launched in 2014 to 2016. Most of the products launched in Mexico were new product launches and range/variety extension, while 33% were relaunches due to changing packaging.

Contents

Positioning Mexico’s bakery product market in the world

The bakery product sector represents 22% of the world’s overall packaged food sales, worth US$456.8 billion in 2016. The sector continues to see dynamic growth despite its maturity, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.2% from 2012 to 2016. This is in part due to the shift towards healthier options that have nutritional benefits (such as increased fiber content, reduced fat and sugar) or addressing dietary requirements and food intolerance.

Mexico’s bakery product sector made up 4% of the world’s bakery product sales in 2016. From 2012 to 2016, Mexico’s bakery products sector grew at a compound annual growth rate of 3.3%, with retail sales increasing from US$15.5 billion in 2012 to US$17.6 billion in 2016.

On a regional level, Mexico is the second-largest bakery market in Latin American after Brazil, representing 23.9% of the region’s bakery products share. Bakery products in Latin America witnessed a significant compound annual growth of 8.4% from 2012 to 2016, resulting in a 28% increase in retail sales from US$53.6 billion in 2012 to US$73.9 billion in 2016.

Top ten bakery product markets in the world, from 2012 to 2016, in US$ millions
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 *CAGR (%) 2012-16
World 387,811.6 404,062.8 419,474.2 436,377.2 456,745.8 4.17
1. USA 85,519.1 87,640.5 88,552.7 90,065.1 91,995.6 1.84
2. China 21,731.2 24,330.8 27,330.6 29,369.3 32,357.6 10.46
3. Brazil 20,926.6 23,420.0 26,126.3 28,567.1 30,696.7 10.05
4. Japan 25,127.7 24,804.7 25,249.6 25,950.3 26,375.2 1.22
5. Italy 22,490.3 22,430.8 22,372.8 22,268.8 22,456.5 -0.04
6. France 19,192.9 19,471.0 19,622.9 19,749.8 20,002.2 1.04
7. Germany 18,437.9 18,831.8 19,010.0 19,296.1 19,556.6 1.48
8. Mexico 15,488.2 16,167.1 16,553.1 16,927.0 17,639.4 3.30
9. United Kingdom 14,642.9 14,890.5 14,801.5 14,836.7 14,580.1 -0.11
10. Turkey 9,524.1 9,732.5 10,284.7 11,344.0 13,343.7 8.80

Source: Euromonitor, 2017.

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth rate.

Top five bakery product markets in Latin America, from 2012 to 2016, in US$ millions
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 *CAGR (%) 2012-16
Latin America 53,608.5 58,399.1 63,276.7 68,354.1 73,890.6 8.35
1. Brazil 20,926.6 23,420.0 26,126.3 28,567.1 30,696.7 10.05
2. Mexico 15,488.2 16,167.1 16,553.1 16,927.0 17,639.4 3.30
3. Argentina 2,730.0 3,479.2 4,340.5 5,762.8 7,468.5 28.61
4. Chile 3,126.0 3,233.7 3,511.4 3,677.2 3,894.2 5.65
5. Peru 2,483.0 2,674.0 2,786.3 2,896.6 2,952.8 4.43

Source: Euromonitor, 2017.

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth rate.

Trade overview

In 2016, Mexico imported US$336.2 million bakery products from the world at a compound annual growth rate of 3% from 2012 to 2016. The United States made up 68.6% of Mexico’s imports from the world, worth US$230.6 million in 2016, followed by Canada, with a 12.6% market share in bakery imports at a value of US$42.3 million in 2016. Mexico’s bakery imports from Canada saw significant growth within the last five years, with imports growing at a compound annual growth rate of 56% from 2012 to 2016.

Mexico’s bakery product** imports from the world, from 2012 to 2016, in US$ millions
Suppliers 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 *CAGR (%) 2012-16 Market share (%)
World 299.00 334.42 346.5 360.35 336.18 2.97 100
1. United States 218.04 227.67 250.86 252.90 230.58 1.41 68.59
2. Canada 7.13 38.11 40.86 43.16 42.25 56.00 12.57
3. Italy 28.79 27.39 8.70 10.04 11.03 -21.33 3.28
4. Guatemala 5.34 5.53 7.14 9.07 8.76 13.18 2.61
5. Indonesia 6.10 6.43 7.54 9.24 6.44 1.34 1.92
6. Spain 6.84 4.03 4.16 4.32 5.07 -7.22 1.51
7. Brazil 0.64 0.40 0.31 1.66 3.86 56.44 1.15
8. Germany 2.99 2.84 2.66 3.69 3.53 4.27 1.05
9. France 3.20 3.48 4.19 3.88 3.23 0.24 0.96
10. China 1.93 2.49 2.80 3.22 3.14 12.92 0.93

Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2017.

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth rate.

**Note: For the purpose of this report, “bakery products” was defined using the following HS codes: 1904, 1905.

Market environment

In 2014 the Mexican government implemented a special 8% tax on high-calorie food. As a result, there was a significant impact on the volume consumption of bakery products. The volume sales of bakery products, such as cakes and pastries, declined as price-sensitive consumers were discouraged by higher unit prices (Euromonitor, 2016). In combination with the sales tax, Mexican consumers are increasingly interested in convenient bakery options that are low in sugar and contain nutritious ingredients. Due to these changing demands, companies that manufacture bakery products are reformulating their bakery product lines and modifying their product packaging in design and claims to address consumers’ health concerns (Euromonitor, 2016).

Retail sales

In 2016, bakery products recorded a 3.3% compound annual growth rate, reaching US$17.6 billion in 2016. The baked goods subcategory represented 80% of Mexico’s bakery products sector in 2016, followed by biscuits and snack bars, with 16.4% market share, and breakfast cereals with 3.5%.

Historical retail sales of bakery products, from 2012 to 2016, in US$ millions
Categories 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 *CAGR (%) 2012-16
Bakery products 15,488.2 16,167.1 16,553.1 16,927.0 17,639.4 3.30
Baked goods 12,587.7 13,176.5 13,389.8 13,627.4 14,136.5 2.94
Biscuits and snack bars 2,327.4 2,432.8 2,600.9 2,715.4 2,894.5 5.60
Breakfast cereals 573.1 557.8 562.4 584.2 608.4 1.51

Source: Euromonitor, 2017.

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth rate.

Historical retail volume sales of bakery products, from 2012 to 2016, in 000’ tonnes
Categories 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 *CAGR (%) 2012-16
Bakery products 12,655.6 12,759.9 12,810.3 12,925.5 13,095.4 0.86
Baked goods 11,841.5 11,946.3 12,012.0 12,118.1 12,271.2 0.90
Biscuits and snack bars 685.8 687.1 680.0 688.4 704.2 0.66
Breakfast cereals 128.3 126.5 118.3 119.0 120.0 -1.66

Source: Euromonitor, 2017.

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth rate.

Forecast retail sales of bakery products, from 2017 to 2021, in US$ millions
Categories 2017E 2018 2019 2020 2021 *CAGR (%) 2017-21
Bakery products 18,377.7 19,079.0 19,826.8 20,646.2 21,496.4 4.00
Baked goods 14,612.5 15,115.5 15,649.0 16,226.6 16,815.3 3.57
Biscuits and snack bars 3,128.3 3,293.8 3,471.9 3,674.3 3,893.5 5.62
Breakfast cereals 636.9 669.7 705.9 745.3 787.6 5.45

Source: Euromonitor, 2017.

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth rate.

E: Estimate.

Forecast retail volume sales of bakery products, from 2017 to 2021, in 000’ tonnes
Categories 2017E 2018 2019 2020 2021 *CAGR (%) 2017-21
Bakery products 13,243.3 13,383.5 13,530.1 13,682.8 13,842.1 1.11
Baked goods 12,406.9 12,533.9 12,665.3 12,800.5 12,940.7 1.06
Biscuits and snack bars 715.0 726.7 740.2 755.7 772.7 1.96
Breakfast cereals 121.4 122.9 124.6 126.6 128.7 1.47

Source: Euromonitor, 2017.

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth rate.

E: Estimate.

Subsector analysis

Baked goods

The baked goods category is the largest of the three categories within the bakery products sector. Despite the drop in volume sales for pastries and cakes in 2014, the category saw a compound annual growth rate of 2.9% from 2012 to 2016. By the end of 2016, the baked goods category’s retail sales reached US$14.1 billion and 12,271.2 tonnes in volume sales. According to Euromonitor, this category’s retail sales are forecasted to reach US$16.8 billion by 2021, with retail volume sales reaching 12,940.7 tonnes.

In 2016, artisanal baked goods outperformed packaged baked goods (Euromonitor, 2016). Unpackaged baked goods in Mexico have a competitive advantage in pastries due to their freshness and affordability when compared to packaged versions. According to Euromonitor, unpackaged/artisanal bakeries continued to account for the majority of baked good sales. Unpackaged baked goods consist mostly of unpackaged flatbread, used to make artisanal tortillas, which are a fundamental part of Mexicans’ daily diets (Euromonitor, 2016). Homemade breads continued to lose relevance in 2016, as more women joined the workforce and therefore had less time to bake.

Historical retail sales of baked goods, from 2012 to 2016, in US$ millions
Subcategories 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 *CAGR (%) 2012-16
Baked goods 12,587.7 13,176.5 13,389.8 13,627.4 14,136.5 2.94
Bread 8,369.8 8,708.6 9,021.7 9,212.3 9,492.0 3.20
Flatbread 5,846.1 6,038.1 6,146.7 6,225.6 6,366.9 2.16
Unpackaged flatbread 5,544.5 5,717.8 5,815.1 5,881.7 6,006.1 2.02
Packaged flatbread 301.6 320.4 331.6 343.9 360.8 4.58
Leavened bread 2,523.7 2,670.5 2,875.0 2,986.7 3,125.2 5.49
Pastries 2,833.6 3,039.6 2,962.0 3,012.7 3,190.6 3.01
Unpackaged pastries 1,852.5 1,990.3 1,938.3 2,019.3 2,186.7 4.23
Packaged pastries 981.1 1,049.4 1,023.7 993.4 1,003.9 0.58
Cakes 1,118.9 1,150.6 1,124.2 1,117.4 1,147.3 0.63
Packaged cakes 880.5 893.3 861.5 842.5 855.6 -0.71
Unpackaged cakes 238.4 257.3 262.7 274.8 291.7 5.17
Dessert mixes 252.6 263.7 266.8 268.9 289.2 3.44
Frozen baked goods 12.8 13.9 15.2 16.1 17.3 7.82

Source: Euromonitor, 2017.

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth rate.

Historical retail volume sales of baked goods, from 2012 to 2016, in 000’ tonnes
Subcategories 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 *CAGR (%) 2012-16
Baked goods 11,841.5 11,946.3 12,012.0 12,118.1 12,271.2 0.90
Bread 10,791.9 10,884.4 11,055.2 11,168.0 11,299.7 1.16
Flatbread 9,098.9 9,187.7 9,320.0 9,405.4 9,506.5 1.10
Unpackaged flatbread 8,920.0 9,008.6 9,143.7 9,226.0 9,322.9 1.11
Packaged flatbread 178.9 179.1 176.3 179.4 183.6 0.65
Leavened bread 1,693.0 1,696.8 1,735.2 1,762.5 1,793.2 1.45
Pastries 774.5 788.6 705.6 698.6 718.5 -1.86
Unpackaged pastries 579.6 588.0 525.5 525.8 547.4 -1.42
Packaged pastries 194.9 200.6 180.1 172.7 171.2 -3.19
Cakes 197.3 192.9 174.7 171.3 170.0 -3.65
Packaged cakes 127.3 121.9 108.3 104.4 101.4 -5.53
Unpackaged cakes 70.0 71.0 66.5 66.9 68.6 -0.50
Dessert mixes 74.6 76.9 72.9 76.7 79.3 1.54
Frozen baked goods 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.7 2.90

Source: Euromonitor, 2017.

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth rate.

Forecast retail sales of baked goods, from 2017 to 2021, in US$ millions
Subcategories 2017E 2018 2019 2020 2021 *CAGR (%) 2017-21
Baked goods 14,612.5 15,115.5 15,649.0 16,226.6 16,815.3 3.57
Bread 9,754.4 10,014.2 10,296.9 10,604.6 10,929.5 2.88
Flatbread 6,497.8 6,623.0 6,763.7 6,920.5 7,087.7 2.20
Packaged flatbread 379.4 397.0 417.0 438.7 462.0 5.05
Unpackaged flatbread 6,118.4 6,226.0 6,346.7 6,481.7 6,625.8 2.01
Leavened bread 3,256.6 3,391.2 3,533.2 3,684.2 3,841.7 4.22
Pastries 3,366.7 3,549.7 3,740.8 3,945.8 4,143.6 5.33
Unpackaged pastries 2,344.2 2,502.0 2,661.0 2,826.9 2,984.8 6.23
Packaged pastries 1,022.5 1,047.8 1,079.7 1,118.8 1,158.9 3.18
Cakes 1,175.8 1,216.0 1,258.9 1,306.0 1,353.7 3.59
Packaged cakes 867.8 891.1 916.7 945.5 974.9 2.95
Unpackaged cakes 308.1 324.8 342.2 360.5 378.8 5.30
Dessert mixes 297.7 316.1 331.8 348.3 365.2 5.24
Frozen baked goods 17.9 19.5 20.7 22.0 23.4 6.93

Source: Euromonitor, 2017.

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth rate.

E: Estimate.

Forecast retail volume sales of baked goods, from 2017 to 2021, in 000’ tonnes
Subcategories 2017E 2018 2019 2020 2021 *CAGR (%) 2017-21
Baked goods 12,406.9 12,533.9 12,665.3 12,800.5 12,940.7 1.06
Bread 11,416.7 11,526.0 11,640.9 11,761.2 11,887.0 1.01
Flatbread 9,598.3 9,682.5 9,773.0 9,869.4 9,971.4 0.96
Packaged flatbread 188.2 191.7 195.5 199.6 203.8 2.01
Unpackaged flatbread 9,410.1 9,490.8 9,577.4 9,669.8 9,767.6 0.94
Leavened bread 1,818.5 1,843.5 1,867.9 1,891.8 1,915.5 1.31
Pastries 736.6 754.2 770.4 785.7 800.5 2.10
Unpackaged pastries 565.3 582.2 597.0 610.2 622.2 2.43
Packaged pastries 171.2 172.0 173.4 175.5 178.3 1.02
Cakes 168.5 166.8 165.3 163.4 161.6 -1.04
Packaged cakes 98.4 95.3 92.5 89.3 86.3 -3.23
Unpackaged cakes 70.1 71.5 72.9 74.1 75.3 1.81
Dessert mixes 81.4 83.1 84.7 86.2 87.5 1.82
Frozen baked goods 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 1.92

Source: Euromonitor, 2017.

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth rate.

E: Estimate.

Top five baked goods companies in Mexico and their market share - Retail value sales % breakdown
Companies 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E
Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV 18.2 18.2 18.1 17.6 17.4 17.3
Kraft Heinz Co N/A N/A N/A 0.5 0.5 0.6
D'Gari SA de CV 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Organización Soriana SAB de CV 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
General Mills Inc 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Private Label 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Others 80.7 80.7 80.7 80.7 80.9 80.8

Source: Euromonitor, 2017.

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth rate.

E: Estimate.

Biscuits and snack bars

The biscuits and snack bars category is the second-largest bakery products category. The category saw the fastest retail sales growth at a compound annual growth rate of 5.6% from 2012 to 2016. As a result, retails sales from 2012 (worth US$2.3 billion) increased by 24.4% with retail sales reaching 2.9 billion in 2016.

According to Euromonitor, this category is expected to reach US$3.9 billion by 2021 due to the perceived beliefs that snack bars are healthy and convenient, combined with their growing variety in product launches.

Historical retail sales of biscuits and snack bars, from 2012 to 2016, in US$ millions
Subcategories 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 *CAGR (%) 2012-16
Biscuits and snack bars 2,327.4 2,432.8 2,600.9 2,715.4 2,894.5 5.60
Sweet biscuits 1,686.2 1,757.5 1,877.0 1,960.0 2,082.8 5.42
Plain biscuits 567.8 607.3 643.9 671.8 709.9 5.74
Cookies 447.8 470.5 510.8 532.2 569.0 6.17
Filled biscuits 258.3 263.4 283.8 299.5 321.0 5.58
Chocolate-coated biscuits 228.2 232.3 252.7 263.7 280.7 5.31
Wafers 184.1 183.8 185.9 192.8 202.3 2.38
Savoury biscuits 416.3 429.7 452.9 469.3 504.0 4.90
Snack bars 224.9 245.6 271.0 286.1 307.7 8.15

Source: Euromonitor, 2017.

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth rate.

Historical retail sales of biscuits and snack bars, from 2012 to 2016, in US$ millions
Subcategories 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 *CAGR (%) 2012-16
Biscuits and snack bars 685.8 687.1 680.0 688.4 704.2 0.66
Sweet biscuits 517.5 520.0 510.8 517.2 529.9 0.59
Plain biscuits 242.1 246.4 239.7 242.5 246.5 0.45
Cookies 110.5 111.6 112.1 113.5 117.5 1.55
Filled biscuits 75.1 73.8 73.3 75.1 78.2 1.02
Chocolate-coated biscuits 45.8 44.9 45.0 45.4 46.4 0.33
Wafers 44.0 43.4 40.7 40.8 41.3 -1.57
Savoury biscuits 135.3 132.5 133.7 134.9 136.6 0.24
Snack bars 33.0 34.6 35.5 36.3 37.7 3.38

Source: Euromonitor, 2017.

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth rate.

Forecast retail sales of biscuits and snack bars, from 2017 to 2021, in US$ millions
Subcategories 2017E 2018 2019 2020 2021 *CAGR (%) 2017-21
Biscuits and snack bars 3,128.3 3,293.8 3,471.9 3,674.3 3,893.5 5.62
Sweet biscuits 2,247.6 2,352.9 2,470.1 2,604.8 2,752.9 5.20
Plain biscuits 764.2 802.5 843.6 891.0 942.5 5.38
Cookies 613.7 640.8 670.6 704.3 741.9 4.86
Filled biscuits 350.4 369.6 391.1 415.6 442.7 6.02
Chocolate-coated biscuits 301.1 313.3 328.5 346.3 366.7 5.05
Wafers 218.2 226.7 236.3 247.5 259.2 4.40
Savoury biscuits 542.5 575.2 607.7 642.1 679.2 5.78
Snack bars 338.2 365.7 394.1 427.4 461.4 8.08

Source: Euromonitor, 2017.

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth rate.

E: Estimate.

Forecast retail volume sales of biscuits and snack bars, from 2017 to 2021, in 000’ tonnes
Subcategories 2017E 2018 2019 2020 2021 *CAGR (%) 2017-21
Biscuits and snack bars 715.0 726.7 740.2 755.7 772.7 1.96
Sweet biscuits 536.7 544.6 554.2 565.5 578.3 1.88
Plain biscuits 250.5 254.9 260.0 265.8 272.3 2.11
Cookies 118.7 120.0 121.4 123.2 125.3 1.36
Filled biscuits 79.5 81.1 83.0 85.3 87.8 2.51
Chocolate-coated biscuits 46.4 46.8 47.5 48.4 49.5 1.63
Wafers 41.6 41.9 42.3 42.8 43.4 1.06
Savoury biscuits 139.4 141.7 143.9 146.2 148.7 1.63
Snack bars 38.9 40.4 42.1 44.0 45.7 4.11

Source: Euromonitor, 2017.

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth rate.

E: Estimate.

Top five biscuits and snack bars companies in Mexico and market share - Retail value sales % breakdown
Companies 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E
PepsiCo Inc 49.1 48.9 49.5 49.9 49.9
Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV 23.0 23.0 23.1 23.0 22.9
Mondelez International Inc 2.8 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0
Kellogg Co 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
Embotelladoras Arca SA de CV 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5
Private Label 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
Others 20.7 21.8 21.0 20.8 20.9

Source: Euromonitor, 2017.

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth rate.

E: Estimate.

Breakfast cereals

Many breakfast cereal brands in Mexico were negatively affected by the special tax applied to high-caloric foods in 2014. As a result, the category experienced slight growth in value and decline in volume growth from 2012 to 2016, with retail sales reaching US$608.4 million and 120,000 tonnes in volume sales. Despite the implementation of the special tax, breakfast cereals among Mexican consumers are considered convenient and are perceived as a fairly balanced breakfast option (Euromonitor, 2016).

According to Euromonitor, new product launches and greater focus on health and wellness may help to sustain the growth of breakfast cereals with sales set to reach US$787.6 in 2021.

Historical retail sales of breakfast cereals, from 2012 to 2016, in US$ millions
Subcategories 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 *CAGR (%) 2012-16
Breakfast cereals 573.1 557.8 562.4 584.2 608.4 1.51
Hot cereals 70.0 68.6 68.6 71.1 73.8 1.33
Ready-to-eat cereals 503.1 489.2 493.8 513.1 534.6 1.53
Children's breakfast cereals 290.9 282.6 287.7 301.1 316.0 2.09
Family breakfast cereals 212.2 206.6 206.1 212.1 218.6 0.75
Flakes 139.4 131.3 129.4 132.1 135.2 -0.76
Muesli and granola 24.9 26.3 27.0 28.4 29.8 4.59
Other ready-to-eat cereals 48.0 49.1 49.8 51.6 53.6 2.80

Source: Euromonitor, 2017.

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth rate.

Historical retail volume sales of breakfast cereals, from 2012 to 2016, in 000’ tonnes
Subcategories 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 *CAGR (%) 2012-16
Breakfast cereals 128.3 126.5 118.3 119.0 120.0 -1.66
Hot cereals 17.8 17.9 16.7 16.8 17.0 -1.14
Ready-to-eat cereals 110.5 108.7 101.6 102.2 103.0 -1.74
Children's breakfast cereals 66.4 65.9 61.9 62.6 63.3 -1.19
Family breakfast cereals 44.0 42.8 39.7 39.6 39.7 -2.54
Flakes 32.1 30.8 28.4 28.2 28.1 -3.27
Muesli and granola 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.1 4.2 0.00
Other ready-to-eat cereals 7.8 7.8 7.3 7.3 7.4 -1.31

Source: Euromonitor, 2017.

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth rate.

Forecast retail sales of breakfast cereals, from 2017 to 2021, in US$ millions
Subcategories 2017E 2018 2019 2020 2021 *CAGR (%) 2017-21
Breakfast cereals 636.9 669.7 705.9 745.3 787.6 5.45
Hot cereals 78.3 82.3 86.9 92.1 97.5 5.64
Ready-to-eat cereals 558.6 587.4 619.0 653.2 690.2 5.43
Children's breakfast cereals 332.9 349.0 366.8 386.5 407.9 5.21
Family breakfast cereals 225.7 238.4 252.2 266.7 282.3 5.75
Flakes 138.1 145.7 153.7 162.4 171.7 5.60
Muesli and granola 31.4 33.9 36.4 38.7 41.3 7.09
Other ready-to-eat cereals 56.1 58.9 62.1 65.5 69.2 5.39

Source: Euromonitor, 2017.

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth rate.

E: Estimate.

Forecast retail volume sales of breakfast cereals, from 2017 to 2021, in 000’ tonnes
Subcategories 2017E 2018 2019 2020 2021 *CAGR (%) 2017-21
Breakfast cereals 121.4 122.9 124.6 126.6 128.7 1.47
Hot cereals 17.4 17.7 18.1 18.5 19.0 2.22
Ready-to-eat cereals 104.0 105.2 106.6 108.1 109.7 1.34
Children's breakfast cereals 64.1 65.0 66.0 67.2 68.5 1.67
Family breakfast cereals 39.9 40.2 40.6 40.9 41.3 0.87
Flakes 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 0.09
Muesli and granola 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.8 2.79
Other ready-to-eat cereals 7.5 7.7 7.8 8.0 8.2 2.26

Source: Euromonitor, 2017.

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth rate.

E: Estimate.

Top five breakfast cereals companies in Mexico and market share, Retail value sales % breakdown
Companies 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E
Kellogg Co 42.8 42.7 42.8 42.8 42.7
Cereal Partners Worldwide SA 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.4 12.3
PepsiCo Inc 9.5 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8
Industrial Vida SA de CV, Grupo 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7
ConAgra Brands Inc N/A N/A N/A 2.0 2.0
Private Label 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4
Others 28.0 27.9 27.9 26.0 26.1

Source: Euromonitor, 2017.

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth rate.

E: Estimate.

New product launch analysis

Number of bakery product launches in Mexico by year
Description of this image follows.
Description of above image
2012 612
2013 785
2014 1,113
2015 1,155
2016 1,198

Source: Mintel, 2017.

In accordance with the shift towards healthier and convenient products, manufacturers of bakery products in Mexico have been focusing their efforts on reformulating, repackaging, and expanding their existing product lines. As a result, from 2012 to 2016 there were 4,863 bakery products launched in Mexico. Over 71% of the products were launched within the last three years of the review period during the implementation of special tax on high-calorie foods. Most of the products launched in Mexico were new product launches and range/variety extension, while 33% were relaunches due to change in packaging.

Sweet biscuits/cookies saw the most product launches out of all the bakery products launched, which made up 35% of product introduction in Mexico. Within this subcategory, 59% of the product launches were new products and range/variety extensions, while 40% of product launches were due to new packaging. The second-largest subcategory is cold cereals, which made up 19% of the bakery products launched, followed by cakes, pastries and sweet goods, with 18% market share.

Top five bakery product subcategories for product launches from 2012 to 2016, % breakdown
Description of this image follows.
Description of above image
Sweet biscuits/cookies 35%
Cold cereals 19%
Cakes, pastries and sweet goods 18%
Bread and bread products 15%
Baking ingredients and mixes 13%

Source: Mintel, 2017.

Import status by subcategory for bakery product launches, from 2012 to 2016
Subcategory Not imported Imported Number of products
Sweet biscuits/cookies 680 422 1,458
Cold cereals 367 185 760
Cakes, pastries and sweet goods 401 185 757
Bread and bread products 359 105 625
Baking ingredients and mixes 197 192 532
Snack/cereal/energy bars 170 167 430
Savoury biscuits/crackers 46 99 189
Hot cereals 43 21 87
Baby cereals 10 6 18
Baby biscuits and rusks 0 7 7

Source: Mintel, 2017.

Country of manufacture for bakery product launches, from 2012 to 2016
Country of manufacture Number of products
Mexico 2,273
USA 819
Canada 123
Italy 91
Spain 61
Germany 44
France 34
Belgium 24
Netherlands 19
Indonesia 19

Source: Mintel, 2017.

Claims

Top ten product claims and top five subcategories of product launches in Mexico from 2012 to 2016
Claim Sweet biscuits/cookies Cold cereals Cakes, pastries & sweet goods Bread & bread products Baking ingredients & mixes Total products
Ethical—environmentally friendly package 492 360 284 207 112 1,608
Kosher 277 407 125 113 196 1,368
Wholegrain 123 332 25 99 39 798
Vitamin/mineral fortified 151 349 71 78 52 782
Low/no/reduced trans fats 303 51 67 147 27 692
Social media 144 136 81 86 100 682
No additives/preservatives 146 66 38 108 42 504
Low/no/reduced allergen 97 56 16 52 87 486
Children (5-12) 150 239 48 10 3 484
Low/no/reduced cholesterol 67 149 21 130 16 446
Total products 1,458 760 757 625 532 4,863

Source: Mintel, 2017.

Fastest growing claims for bakery product launches by number of products from 2012 to 2016
Rank Claim 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1 Ethical—environmentally friendly product 7 26 30 97 189
2 Ethical—human 7 13 19 68 161
3 Male 2 4 5 10 16
4 Vegan 5 5 11 43 37
5 No animal ingredients 5 5 11 43 37
6 Social media 35 62 131 201 253
7 Event merchandising 11 11 35 37 66
8 Babies and toddlers (0–4) 2 3 6 3 12
9 Cobranded 5 29 19 28 29
10 Low/no/reduced sugar 28 57 70 122 126

Source: Mintel, 2017.

Packaging

Top ten package types used in bakery product launches, from 2012 to 2016
Package type Number of products
Flexible 3,874
Flexible stand-up pouch 274
Tub 141
Carton 112
Flexible sachet 95
Tray 81
Clampack 66
Jar 47
Composite 30
Bottle 30

Source: Mintel, 2017.

Top ten package materials used in bakery product launches, from 2012 to 2016
Package material Number of products
Plastic unspecified 2,485
Metallised film 1,026
Polypropylene plastic 473
Polyethylene terephthalate plastic 155
Low-density polyethylene plastic 109
Multilaminate 83
Plastic-lined paper 62
Kraft-lined brown board 48
Metal steel 43
Paper plain 40

Source: Mintel, 2017.

Top ten package heights used in bakery product launches, from 2012 to 2016
Package height Number of products
250 mm 115
210 mm 108
240 mm 98
150 mm 90
200 mm 88
230 mm 84
180 mm 81
225 mm 81
260 mm 79
190 mm 78

Source: Mintel, 2017.

Top ten package widths used in bakery product launches, from 2012 to 2016
Package width Number of products
150 mm 135
100 mm 116
120 mm 113
90 mm 113
80 mm 111
130 mm 109
145 mm 107
140 mm 105
110 mm 103
160 mm 101

Source: Mintel, 2017.

Top five packaging manufacturers used for bakery product launches, from 2012 to 2016
Packaging Manufacturer Number of products
Inix (Mexico) 37
PWP Industries (USA) 22
Inline Plastics Corp. (USA) 6
Dart Container Corporation (USA) 5
Vidriera Mexico SA (Vidriera Toluca) (Mexico) 3

Source: Mintel, 2017.

Distribution channels

Traditional grocery retailers are the main channels for bakery products in Mexico. They made up 61.1% of the bakery products retail sales in 2016. These distribution channels correspond to sales of unpackaged bakery products (i.e. pastries, bread, and cakes) through small independent grocers such as traditional bakeries and tortillerias (Euromonitor, 2016).

Modern grocery retailers are set to be the preferred distribution channels for bakery products due to consumer preference for a one-stop shop where they can buy all the products they need (Euromonitor, 2016). Modern grocery retailers recorded a growth rate of 1.2% from 2012 to 2016, while traditional grocery retailers experienced a declining growth rate of -0.7%. Although there is a decline in sales for traditional grocery retailers, independent small grocers will continue to be an important distribution channel for bakery products.

To ensure a strong distribution network, companies that produce bakery products should have a presence in stores with close proximity to neighbourhoods. This is mostly relevant for baked goods, such as breads, pastries, and cakes that need to be purchased frequently during short, convenient trips (Euromonitor, 2016).

Retail distribution of bakery products in Mexico, % breakdown from 2012 to 2016
Distribution channel 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Store-based retailing 99.3 99.3 99.3 99.3 99.3
Grocery retailers 97.2 97.2 97.3 97.3 97.2
Modern grocery retailers 34.8 35.0 35.4 35.7 36.2
Convenience stores 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.8
Discounters 11.6 11.7 11.9 11.9 12.1
Forecourt retailers 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Hypermarkets 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.3
Supermarkets 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4
Traditional grocery retailers 62.5 62.2 61.9 61.6 61.1
Food/drink/tobacco specialists 33.5 33.5 33.1 32.8 32.4
Independent small grocers 26.4 26.5 26.8 26.8 26.7
Other grocery retailers 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0
Mixed retailers 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8
Non-store retailing 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Vending 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

Source: Euromonitor, 2017.

For more information

International Trade Commissioners can provide Canadian industry with on-the-ground expertise regarding market potential, current conditions and local business contacts, and are an excellent point of contact for export advice.

For additional intelligence on this and other markets, the complete library of Global Analysis reports can be found on the International Market Intelligence page, arranged by region.

Resources

Sector Trend Analysis - Bakery Products In Mexico
Global Analysis Report

Prepared by: Ranna Bernard, Market Analyst

© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, represented by the Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food (2018).

Photo Credits
All photographs reproduced in this publication are used by permission of the rights holders.
All images, unless otherwise noted, are copyright Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada.

To join our distribution list or to suggest additional report topics or markets, please contact:

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Global Analysis
1341 Baseline Road, Tower 5, 3rd floor
Ottawa, Ontario
Canada, K1A 0C5
E-mail: aafc.mas-sam.aac@canada.ca

The Government of Canada has prepared this report based on primary and secondary sources of information. Although every effort has been made to ensure that the information is accurate, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) assumes no liability for any actions taken based on the information contained herein.

Reproduction or redistribution of this document, in whole or in part, must include acknowledgement of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada as the owner of the copyright in the document, through a reference citing AAFC, the title of the document and the year. Where the reproduction or redistribution includes data from this document, it must also include an acknowledgement of the specific data source(s), as noted in this document.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada provides this document and other report services to agriculture and food industry clients free of charge.

Date modified: