Market Overview - Morocco

April 2017

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Contents

Executive summary

The Kingdom of Morocco is located in the northwest corner of Africa, and at its closest point, it is less than 15 kilometres away from Spain. With a population of 35.0 million people, Morocco was the 10th largest economy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, in 2016. Morocco is considered a developing country by international standards.

Morocco had a gross domestic product (GDP) of US$104.1 billion in 2016, this is expected to grow by 5.3% in 2017. Morocco is forecast to see some sustained economic progress over the short to medium term with a 5.7% compound annual growth rate by 2020 and beyond, according to Euromonitor.

This growth is largely stimulated by domestic demand, and Morocco is on track to see continued improvements in its economic performance due to a combination of government policy measures to enhance the business climate, focused expansion of middle class and improvements in competitiveness.

According to Euromonitor, Moroccan consumers have a significantly lower level of discretionary spending compared to the global average, although it is slightly higher than some of their regional counterparts. Consumer expenditure will see healthy growth through to 2030, creating more opportunities for providers of agri-food and seafood products; especially with the strongest spending expected to be in hotels and catering services, on the back of rising tourist arrivals and the growing trend for dining out among affluent Moroccans.

Production

Morocco is extremely dependant of its domestic agricultural sector as it accounts for 19% of Morocco's GDP (depending on the harvest) and employs about 40% of the country's workforce. Over 90% of the country's agriculture is rain dependant and thus this output varies greatly from year to year.

Moroccan agricultural production consists mainly of wheat, sugar beet, orange, tomatoes, potatoes, olives, and olive oil. However, Morocco produces enough food for domestic consumption except for grains, sugar, coffee and tea. More than 40% of Morocco's consumption of grains is imported. Morocco is a net exporter of fish as well as fruits and vegetables. High quality agricultural products are usually exported to Europe.

Production - Top ten crops (tonnes)
Top ten crops 2011 2012 2013 2014
Wheat 6,017,821 3,878,000 6,933,983 5,115,884
Sugar beet 3,035,143 1,626,670 2,142,221 3,208,617
Potatoes 1,721,402 1,656,891 1,928,606 1,950,982
Barley 2,317,611 1,201,388 2,722,622 1,638,086
Olives 1,415,902 1,315,794 1,181,676 1,573,206
Tomatoes 1,217,905 1,219,071 1,293,320 1,230,953
Oranges 858,587 961,738 759,290 1,001,246
Onions, dry 860,913 855,764 929,866 813,707
Melons, other 777,605 717,602 700,035 736,546
Sugar cane 763,913 540,985 619,561 278,551
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization – Statistics Division (FAOSTAT) Agricultural Production, January 2017
Production - Livestock (heads)
Livestock 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sheep 18,737,340 19,006,080 18,979,704 19,230,835
Goats 5,991,370 5,601,500 5,905,394 6,147,225
Cattle 3,037,930 3,029,180 3,172,984 3,238,688
Asses 950,190 947,110 944,360 947,000
Mules 465,240 456,880 453,330 456,000
Camels 55,000 56,500 181,020 182,830
Horses 139,950 138,150 139,210 140,000
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization – Statistics Division (FAOSTAT) Agricultural Production, January 2017
Production - Meat (tonnes)
Meat 2011 2012 2013 2014
Meat, cattle 198,657 204,422 254,000 259,078
Meat, sheep 143,430 147,592 118,000 120,359
Meat, goat 23,591 24,276 26,000 26,520
Meat, camel 4,296 5,148 4,340 4,292
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization – Statistics Division (FAOSTAT) Agricultural Production, January 2017

Trade

Morocco agriculture is extremely dependant on rainfalls and thus its output could fluctuate drastically from year to year. Consequently, Morocco is a net importer of agri-food products. In 2015, Morocco's agri-food and seafood trade deficit was a mere C$9 million with imports valued at C$5.73 billion, and C$5.72 billion in exports, however Morocco may experience a larger deficit in 2016 according preliminary data because of the severe drought that the country experienced in 2015/2016.

Trade
Trade 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (partial year) CAGR 2011-15
Morocco exports 3,886.77 3,858.20 4,423.89 5,175.56 5,724.63 5,252.72 10.2%
Morocco imports 5,908.55 5,966.53 5,394.08 6,661.93 5,733.71 5,906.50 −0.7%
Gap −2,021.78 −2,108.33 −970.19 −1,486.37 − 9.08 −653.78 −74.1%
Source: Global Trade Tracker, January 2017
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
Morocco top agri-food and seafood suppliers, 2015 and 2016
Partner country 2015 Rank 2015 2016 (partial year) 2016 Rank
World N/A 5,733,713,706 5,906,498,770 N/A
France 1 732,683,607 1,115,929,804 1
Brazil 2 637,378,182 539,380,660 2
Argentina 3 506,338,844 479,116,511 3
United States 4 438,162,760 425,375,837 4
Germany 5 394,776,574 262,989,452 9
Canada 6 358,894,849 292,211,069 8
Spain 7 347,105,132 380,619,806 5
China 8 328,398,963 294,673,444 7
Netherlands 9 227,876,607 202,339,633 10
Ukraine 10 208,522,645 309,131,679 6
Source: Global Trade Tracker, January 2017
Not applicable (N/A)

Morocco's top agri-food and seafood imports in 2015 were wheat, corn, soybeans oil, cane sugar, durum wheat, oilcake, and green tea. Key supplying countries were France, Brazil, Argentina, the United States, Germany and Canada. Canada was Morocco's sixth largest supplier of agri-food and seafood products in 2015, with a 6.3% share.

Canada ranked as the 19th destination for Moroccan agri-food and seafood products in 2015. Canada import's mainly citrus fruit from Morocco, accounting for 67.5% of all agri-food and seafood imports, and totalling C$55.8 million in 2015. Prepared octopus and olives are also other important import products for Canada; their imports totalled C$5.2 and C$5.1 million respectively.

Morocco top agri-food and seafood imports from the world, 2015
Commodity Import Value C$ millions Top Suppliers & Market Share #1 Top Suppliers & Market Share #2 Top Suppliers & Market Share #3 Canada's Share
Wheat ( excluding durum wheat) 705.1 France (39.8%) Germany (20.3%) Ukraine (16.7%) 0.00%
Corn (excluding seed corn) 542.9 Argentina (47.3%) Brazil (29.9%) United States (13.0%) 0.00%
Soybean oil 429.2 Germany (41.7 %) Spain (20.6%) United States (19.9%) 0.00%
Durum wheat 405.9 Canada (81.1%) France (18.7%) N/A 81.10%
Raw sugar cane 357.9 Brazil (95.6%) Mexico (0.04%) France (0.001%) 0.00%
Oilcake 232.3 Argentina (69.1%) United States (30.8%) N/A 0.00%
Green tea 152.5 China (99.8%) United Kingdom (0.001%) Spain (0.001%) 0.00%
Fresh or dried dates 139.5 Tunisia (50.2%) United Arab Emirates (30.6%) Egypt (14.9%) 0.00%
Coffee, not roasted 108.3 Indonesia (30.1%) Guinea (14.7%) Togo (13.8%) 0.00%
Barley (excluding seeds for sowing) 103.6 Argentina (47.0%) France (23.3%) Uruguay (7.9%) 0.00%
Source: Global Trade Tracker, January 2017
Not applicable (N/A)

Canada's agri-food and seafood exports to Morocco were valued at C$358.9 million in 2015. (C$292.2 as of October 2016). Top exports were durum wheat (C$329.6 million), frozen shrimp and prawns (C$8.9 million) , frozen cold water shrimp (C$7.8 million), dried shelled lentils (C$5.8 million) and dried peas (C$2.1 million). Canada registered an agri-food and seafood trade surplus of C$275.9 million with Morocco.

Morocco top agri-food and seafood exports market, 2015 and 2016
Rank 2015 Country 2015 2016 (partial year) Rank 2016
N/A World 5,724,630,475 5,252,722,612
1 Spain 1,185,047,185 1,226,378,287 1
2 France 1,020,299,450 964,795,998 2
3 Netherlands 314,723,927 342,006,143 4
4 Italy 352,704,226 308,948,134 3
5 United States 167,096,692 197,560,137 7
6 Russian Federation 220,849,983 185,583,358 5
7 Japan 188,706,991 150,997,767 6
8 Germany 167,008,897 142,936,642 8
9 Turkey 152,724,811 119,593,287 9
10 United Kingdom 117,664,839 119,209,060 10
19 Canada 82,914,396 47,609,680 19
Source: Global Trade Tracker, January 2017
Not applicable (N/A)

Consumer foodservice

Consumer foodservice volumes in Morocco historic in ‘000 tonnes
Category 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 % CAGR 2011-16
Packaged food foodservice 645.21 675.17 707.40 742.80 783.93 825.00 5.04
Baked goods 277.05 292.32 309.06 326.67 348.05 371.27 6.03
Dairy 205.48 214.54 224.40 236.23 248.68 258.37 4.69
Edible oils 73.01 74.34 75.84 77.22 78.65 80.20 1.90
Rice, pasta and noodles 44.92 46.91 48.88 50.95 53.70 57.18 4.94
Ice cream and frozen desserts 15.48 16.52 17.27 18.20 19.20 20.26 5.53
Sauces, dressings and condiments 13.55 13.94 14.34 14.73 15.24 15.75 3.05
Processed meat and seafood 6.67 7.27 7.98 8.85 10.08 11.32 11.16
Processed fruit and vegetables 3.62 3.74 3.86 3.99 4.16 4.34 3.69
Confectionery 1.44 1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65 1.71 3.50
Spreads 1.49 1.53 1.56 1.61 1.65 1.70 2.67
Sweet biscuits, snack bars and fruit snacks 1.29 1.33 1.37 1.41 1.46 1.51 3.20
Savoury snacks 0.99 1.02 1.05 1.09 1.14 1.18 3.57
Breakfast cereals 0.19 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.25 0.26 6.47
Soup 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.00
Source: Euromonitor, January 2017
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)

Moroccan lifestyle and consumption trends have changed significantly in recent years, with the increasingly hectic pace of modern life fuelling demand for convenience. As a result, many consumers are ordering ready-to-eat meals from consumer foodservice outlets during lunch, while they might rely on processed foods bought from retailers when eating at home.

According to Euromonitor, in 2015, consumer expenditure per capita amounted to US$2,002. This amount is expected to increase by 3.5% in 2016. Spending on hotels and catering will be the fastest-growing consumer category. It is forecast that in the period 2016 to 2030, total consumer expenditure will grow at an average annual rate of 5.7%.

Consumer foodservice volumes in Morocco- forecast in ‘000 tonnes
Product 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 % CAGR 2017-21
Packaged food foodservice 869.17 916.53 967.28 1,021.79 1,080.74 5.60
Baked goods 396.47 423.86 453.52 485.7 521.01 7.07
Dairy 268.38 278.73 289.44 300.51 311.93 3.83%
Edible oils 81.81 83.48 85.23 87.06 88.96 2.12
Rice, pasta and noodles 60.95 65.02 69.41 74.14 79.25 6.78
Ice cream and frozen desserts 21.38 22.58 23.86 25.22 26.67 5.68
Sauces, dressings and condiments 12.75 14.4 16.3 18.49 21.02 13.31
Processed meat and seafood 16.29 16.87 17.49 18.15 18.85 3.72
Processed fruit and vegetables 4.53 4.73 4.94 5.17 5.41 4.54
Confectionery 1.76 1.82 1.88 1.95 2.02 3.50
Spreads 1.77 1.82 1.88 1.95 2.01 3.23
Sweet biscuits, snack bars and fruit snacks 1.56 1.62 1.68 1.75 1.82 3.93
Savoury snacks 1.22 1.26 1.31 1.36 1.41 3.68
Breakfast cereals 0.28 0.3 0.32 0.34 0.37 7.22
Soup 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.00
Source: Euromonitor, January 2017
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)

Retail sales

Agri-food retail sales in Morocco, historic in US$ millions
Category 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 % CAGR 2011-16
Packaged food 4,500.1 4,786 5,023.9 5,291.5 5,552.4 5,797.6 5.20
Dairy 1,677.1 1,790.6 1,857.1 1,930.4 1,992.6 2,047.9 4.08
Processed meat and seafood 473.3 516.2 562.4 613.7 681.5 714.7 8.59
Edible oils 601.7 619 644.8 669.2 680.4 708.7 3.33
Baked goods 492.1 514 536.8 562 583.5 608.3 4.33
Confectionery 253.7 266.9 277.5 289.4 300.3 317.2 4.57
Rice, pasta and noodles 216.6 239.2 249.1 260.6 275.8 293.8 6.29
Ice cream and frozen desserts 175.6 193.3 211.3 236.5 258.7 283.5 10.05
Sweet biscuits, snack bars and fruit snacks 178.2 193.5 208.2 225.5 242.9 261.1 7.94
Sauces, dressings and condiments 107.8 110.8 114.1 117.9 122.5 126.8 3.30
Spreads 75.2 78.5 82.9 88.3 94.3 100 5.87
Baby food 83.5 87.3 91.1 95 97.8 99.9 3.65
Savoury snacks 75.7 78.8 82.3 86.6 92.4 97 5.08
Processed fruit and vegetables 55.1 59.9 64.9 71.1 80.2 85.2 9.11
Breakfast cereals 29.3 32.3 35.3 38.6 42.1 45.9 9.39
Ready meals 2.1 2.5 2.8 3.3 3.8 4.0 13.75
Soup 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.04
Source: Euromonitor, January 2017
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)

Several factors are influencing the ever-changing retail sector in Morocco. Shifting consumer lifestyles, particularly a high rate of population growth and rapid urbanization, combined with the rise of disposable income. This in part explains the growth of the packaged food segment and the multiplication of modern grocery distributors in Morocco.

Packaged food sales increased by a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.2% over the period of 2011 to 2016 with further increases of 6.8% forecasted to 2021. Within this category, the best performing segment was ready meals with a CAGR of 13.7% over the same period. This reinforces the Euromonitor observations that consumers in Morocco are looking for convenient products.

The retail distribution of food in Morocco varies across income levels. Superstores generally cater to the more affluent consumers. Traditional neighbourhood stores cater to the lower income population who tends to buy fewer items on a frequent basis. Weekly rural farmer's markets still persist and cater to rural populations. Higher income earners tend to buy more processed and packaged foods on a frequent basis.

Euromonitor notes that Moroccans are gradually shifting towards modern retail channels and embracing technology. Internet retailing packaged food sales are expected to continue increasing. The fact that the number of women joining the workforce is continuously rising means that a growing number of female consumers are looking for practical solutions to make life easier.

There has been a boom in the level of health awareness among Moroccan consumers in recent years. The demand for healthy alternatives is rapidly spreading including the use of stevia in sweet recipes to replace sugar or taking daily amounts of coconut oil to cleanse the digestive system. Because of these trends, pharmacies have started to import and offer a wide range of different supplements, which have proven popular among Moroccans and continue to reinforce the growing health and wellness trend.

Agri-food retail sales in Morocco, forecast in US$ millions
Category 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 % CAGR 2017-21
Packaged Food 6,169.2 6,573.8 7,014.0 7,493.2 8,018.9 6.78
Dairy 2,147.6 2,254.3 2,368.4 2,490.6 2,621.7 5.11
Processed meat and seafood 764.8 818.6 876.7 939.1 1,006.3 7.10
Edible oils 743.5 781.2 822.3 867.2 918.6 5.43
Baked goods 647.2 689.1 734.3 783.0 835.6 6.60
Confectionery 317.8 357.5 403.7 458.2 523.1 13.27
Rice, pasta and noodles 341.5 368.3 397.9 430.2 464.3 7.98
Ice cream and frozen desserts 319.5 347.6 378.4 412.4 450.0 8.94
Sweet biscuits, snack bars and fruit snacks 286.2 313.3 342.0 371.6 403.5 8.97
Sauces, dressings and condiments 133.9 141.4 149.4 157.8 166.7 5.63
Spreads 108.3 117.7 128.1 139.6 152.6 8.95
Baby food 103.5 111.1 119.3 128.2 137.8 7.42
Savoury snacks 92.3 99.9 108.3 117.3 127.1 8.33
Processed fruit and vegetables 104.1 108.5 113.1 118.0 123.2 4.30
Breakfast cereals 51.1 56.9 63.3 70.6 78.7 11.40
Ready meals 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.5 6.35
Soup 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3 3.83
Source: Euromonitor, January 2017
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)

Convenience-oriented stores, in particular, are changing the landscape of the Moroccan market. While shopping at convenience stores, discounters and forecourt retailers is relatively limited, the traditional grocery retailers are currently losing ground to supermarkets, and hypermarkets and neighbourhood modern grocery stores which feature smaller surfaces, limited product assortments, and a focus on convenience items. There has been a notable trend towards this type of retail channel because of Moroccans' busy lifestyles. The fact that convenience stores have extended hours of operation is also certainly a factor. The demand for convenience, health and wellness, as well as indulgence, will be the main consumer trends that are likely to impact retailing in the years to come in groceries.

Distribution channels - historic - retail value RSP - % breakdown
Outlets 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Grocery retailers 98.1 98.1 98.1 98.1 98.1 98.1
Modern grocery retailers 32.5 33.1 33.6 34.1 34.9 35.2
Convenience stores 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Discounters 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Forecourt retailers 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
Hypermarkets 19.4 19.9 20.3 20.7 21.2 21.4
Supermarkets 11.7 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.2 12.3
Traditional grocery retailers 65.6 65.0 64.4 64.0 63.2 62.9
Food/drink/tobacco specialists 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Independent small grocers 58.7 58.1 57.6 57.2 56.5 56.2
Other grocery retailers 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2
Source: Euromonitor, January 2017
Retail Selling Price (RSP)

For more information

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Resources

Market Overview - Morocco
Global Analysis Report
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