Market Overview – India

June 2019

Market snapshot

India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world with a total gross domestic product (GDP) valued at US$2.6 trillion in 2017, an increase of 13% from US$2.3 trillion in 2016.

India is the second-most populous country in the world with 1.3 billion people. The population is expected to reach 1.5 billion (the largest in the world) by 2030.

India is a net exporter of agri-food and seafood products. In 2018, India's agri-food and seafood trade surplus was US$17.3 billion with imports valued at US$21.4 billion, and exports of US$38.7 billion.  Canada was India's eighth largest supplier of agri-food and seafood products in 2017 and twenty eighth largest supplier in 2018. India's agri-food and seafood exports declined at a CAGR of −2% between 2014 and 2018.

That said, Canada's agri-food and seafood exports to India declined significantly from 2017 to 2018 due to restrictions on pulse products and were valued at US$130.8 million in 2018. Pulse exports remain 90% of total agri-food and seafood trade. Top exports were shelled lentils, shelled peas, food preparations, rape/colza seeds and shelled chickpeas.

Annual per capita consumer expenditure was US$1,233.7 in 2018.

Packaged food retail sales were valued at US$76.3 billion in 2018, and are anticipated to reach US$164.2 billion by 2023.  India's processed food and beverage imports were valued at US$13.7 billion in 2018 and Canada has yet to be a player in value-added imports.

The health and wellness sector grew by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% from 2014 to 2018 and is expected to grow by a CAGR of 14% over the 2019–2023 period.

Production

Sugar cane is India's primary domestic crop, with production representing 306.1 million tonnes in 2017. However, the production volume of sugar cane has decreased by a CAGR of −3% between 2013 to 2017. Maize and onions have had the highest growth rates during the same period, with the same CAGR's of 4% for both commodities.

Chicken production increased by a CAGR of 6% from 2013 to 2017, while cattle production decreased by −2.0% and both buffalo and goat production remained unchanged in growth rates.

Both live goats and sheep remained stable at a CAGR of 0% respectively during the 2013 - 2017 period, while live cattle decreased by −1% and live buffaloes increased by 1%.

Crop production in India 2013-2017
Top 10 crops (million tonnes) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 CAGR* % 2013-2017
Sugar cane 341.2 352.1 362.3 348.4 306.1 −3.0
Rice, paddy 159.2 157.2 156.5 163.7 168.5 1.0
Wheat 93.5 96.0 86.5 92.3 98.5 1.0
Potatoes 45.3 46.4 48.0 43.4 48.6 2.0
Vegetable, fresh n.e.s.[1] 33.2 37.0 34.1 33.1 33.3 0.0
Bananas 28.0 30.0 29.2 29.1 30.5 3.0
Maize 24.2 24.2 23.0 26.0 28.7 4.0
Onions, dry 19.3 19.4 19.0 21.0 22.4 4.0
Tomatoes 18.2 19.0 16.4 18.7 20.7 2.0
Mangoes 0.018 0.018 19.0 18.6 19.5 2.0

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization – Statistics Division (FAOSTAT) Agricultural Production, 2019

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

[1]: Not elsewhere specified

Meat production in India 2013-2017
Meat – top 4 (million tonnes) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 CAGR* % 2013-2017
Chicken meat 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.5 6.0
Buffalo meat 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.0
Cattle meat 0.971 0.961 0.908 0.908 0.889 −2.0
Goat meat 0.509 0.505 0.499 0.504 0.500 0.0

Source: FAOSTAT Agricultural Production, 2019

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Livestock production in India 2013-2017
Livestock – top 4 (million head) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 CAGR* % 2013-2017
Cattle 189.0 187.0 185.0 186.0 185.1 −1.0
Goats 134.0 133.0 132.0 134.1 133.3 0.0
Buffaloes 109.4 110.0 110.6 113.0 113.3 1.0
Sheep 64.0 63.0 62.2 64.3 63.1 0.0

Source: FAOSTAT Agricultural Production, 2019

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Trade

India is a net exporter of agri-food and seafood products. In 2018, India's agri-food and seafood trade surplus was US$17.3 billion with imports valued at US$21.4 billion, and exports of US$38.7 billion. Canada was India's eighth largest supplier of agri-food and seafood products in 2017 and twenty eighth largest supplier in 2018 as exports declined significantly from Canada to India in 2018, due to restrictions on pulse imports to the country. India's agri-food and seafood exports declined at a CAGR of −2% between 2014 and 2018.

India's top agri-food and seafood imports from world in 2018 were crude palm oil, crude soya-bean oil, crude sunflower-seed or safflower oil, cashews and palm oil. Key supplying countries were Ukraine, United States, Indonesia, Argentina and Malaysia.

India's top Agri-Food and Seafood imports from the world, 2018
Harmonized System (HS) Code Commodity Import value US$ millions Top suppliers and market share % Canada's share %
1 2 3
151110 Crude palm oil 4,005.2 Indonesia: 61.0 Malaysia: 29.0 Thailand: 6.0 0.0
150710 Crude soya-bean oil 2,264.4 Argentina: 67.0 Brazil: 24.0 Switzerland: 3.0 0.0
151211 Crude sunflower-seed or safflower oil 1,914.4 Ukraine: 96.0 Argentina: 4.0 United States: 0.0 0.0
080131 Fresh or dried cashew nuts 1,704.3 Côte d'Ivoire: 19.0 Benin: 16.0 Tanzania: 13.0 0.0
151190 Palm oil and its fractions 1,491.0 Indonesia: 84.0 Malaysia: 12.0 Singapore: 3.0 0.0
080211 Fresh or dried almonds 762.8 United States: 84.0 Australia: 13.0 Hong Kong: 2.0 0.3
520100 Cotton 625.4 United States: 57.0 Egypt: 12.0 Australia: 9.0 0.3
170114 Raw cane sugar: (excluding HS 1701.13) 567.6 Brazil: 100.0 Pakistan: 0.0 United Arab Emirate: 0.0 0.3
230990 Animal feed preparations 431.2 Sri Lanka: 19.0 Viet-nam: 15.0 China: 13.0 0.0
080810 Fresh apples 304.0 United States: 54.0 Chile: 19.0 New Zealand: 11.0 0.0
Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2019

India's processed food and beverage imports were valued at US$13.7 billion in 2018. Canada is largely absent from this market as Indonesia, Ukraine, Argentina, Malaysia and Brazil were the largest suppliers of processed food and beverages to India, providing 71% of the market share in 2018. India's processed food and beverage imports remained stable at a CAGR of 0% between 2014 and 2018.

Canada's agri-food and seafood exports to India were valued at US$130.8 million in 2018, with pulse exports accounting for over 90% of total trade. Top exports were shelled lentils, shelled peas, food preparations, rape/colza seeds and shelled chickpeas. In 2018, Canada registered an agri-food and seafood trade deficit of US$408.9 million with India (importing US$539.7 million from India) in 2018.

Retail sales

India is the third largest packaged food market within Asia, after China and Japan and the tenth largest packaged food market in the world after Russia and Italy. The packaged food sector in India is seeing formidable growth, a trend that is expected to continue over the coming years. Retail sales were valued at US$76.3 billion in 2018 and a CAGR of 18% from 2014 to 2018. By the year 2023, retail sales are expected to reach US$164.2 billion, registering a comparable growth rate of 16%. Edible oils and dairy had the largest retail sales value of US$24.5 billion and US$20.8 billion with a CAGR of 21% and 19% respectively from 2014-2018. Company acquisitions, multi-million investments and the premiumisation of products have contributed to the growth of these categories within packaged foods. Savoury snacks, edible oils and sauces, dressings and condiments are expected to see the most significant sales growth in the packaged food sector over 2019-2023 with a CAGR of 23%, 19% and 19% respectively. Brand consciousness is expected to diminish in the forecasted period due partly to increased product availability in conjunction with consumer's increased health awareness and social media usage that encourage consumption directed at one's needs versus the labelling of a product.

Consumers are increasingly seeking easy-to-prepare products that are healthy, tasty, well-priced and help save time. As consumers look for products that are convenient and offer a longer shelf life, packaged food sales will continue to see growth.

Packaged food retail sales in India historic in US$ millions, fixed 2018 exchange rate
Category 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CAGR* % 2014-2018
Packaged food 39,223.5 46,011.3 54,600.4 64,854.3 76,284.2 18.0
Edible oils 10,338.7 12,852.8 16,026.6 20,129.2 24,516.2 21.0
Dairy 11,584.0 13,398.4 15,436.6 17,990.1 20,795.2 19.0
Rice, pasta and noodles 3,395.2 3,624.3 4,579.6 5,684.7 7,041.6 20.0
Savoury snacks 2,585.8 3,159.6 3,852.4 4,426.7 5,027.5 12.0
Sweet biscuits, snack bars and fruit snacks 141.7 3,567.2 3,908.0 4,272.3 4,707.4 15.0
Confectionery 2,645.9 3,066.1 3,515.7 3,990.4 4,561.6 15.0
Sauces, dressings and condiments 1,431.8 1,709.1 2,012.1 2,330.4 2,740.9 14.0
Baked goods 1,634.70 ,803.3 1,985.4 2,195.3 2,433.5 14.0
Ice cream and frozen desserts 1,094.4 1,278.3 1,497.5 1,764.9 2,097.8 18.0
Baby food 474.9 43.5 625.0 706.2 797.5 14.0
Breakfast cereals 219.1 263.4 297.4 338.0 386.5 15.0
Ready meals 194.2 226.2 262.6 305.5 355.6 16.0
Sweet spreads 141.7 169.1 203.9 268.0 306.9 21.0
Processed meat and seafood 120.7 142.6 163.7 188.2 216.8 13.0
Processed fruit and vegetables 130.9 146.7 163.1 183.0 206.8 14.0
Soup 52.6 60.9 70.4 81.5 92.4 15.0

Source: Euromonitor International, 2019

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Packaged food retail sales in India forecastin US$ millions, fixed 2018 exchange rate
Categories 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 CAGR* % 2019-2023
Packaged food 89,608.2 104,755.0 122,062.9 141,761.6 164,186.3 16.0
Edible oils 29,596.4 35,457.1 42,269.1 50,245.1 59,535.4 19.0
Dairy 23,960.5 27,613.8 31,832.4 36,655.2 42,175.9 15.0
Rice, pasta and noodles 8,535.0 10,117.2 11,721.7 13,265.6 14,656.1 14.0
Savoury snacks 6,085.1 7,365.0 9,018.8 11,102.7 13,776.2 23.0
Confectionery 5,183.3 5,852.5 6,564.0 7,310.0 8,077.8 12.0
Sweet biscuits, snack bars and fruit snacks 5,166.7 5,644.8 6,138.0 6,642.1 7,152.2 8.0
Sauces, dressings and condiments 3,238.2 3,843.1 4,573.6 5,454.3 6,531.8 19.0
Ice cream and frozen desserts 2,477.3 2,906.3 3,387.2 3,921.6 4,510.0 14.0
Baked goods 2,677.1 2,923.3 3,167.4 3,404.7 3,630.3 10.0
Baby food 891.0 984.8 1,076.4 1,163.2 1,242.5 9.0
Ready meals 414.2 483.6 566.5 663.0 780.5 15.0
Sweet spreads 362.6 424.0 493.2 571.6 659.4 12.0
Breakfast cereals 439.7 493.6 546.6 596.9 642.6 15.0
Processed meat and seafood 246.0 246.0 301.7 325.6 345.2 9.0
Processed fruit and vegetables 230.8 230.8 275.9 294.8 310.1 8.0
Soup 104.1 104.1 130.5 145.1 160.5 11.0

Source: Euromonitor International, 2019

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Health and wellness food products

India's health and wellness sector was valued at US$8.4 billion in 2018 and grew by a CAGR of 15% from 2014 to 2018 and is expected to continue this growth by 14% over the 2019 to 2023 period. Consumers within this sector are interested in products that can provide health benefits at a good value.

Better for you (BFY) and naturally healthy (NH) foods showed the largest growth in the 2014-2018 period and are expected to lead the way over the next five years with a CAGR of 22% and 17%, respectively.

Health and wellness food product retail sales in India – historic in US$ millions, fixed 2018 exchange rate
Category 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CAGR* % 2014-2018
Health and wellness by type 4,752.3 5,504.4 6,314.4 7,277.7 8,361.8 15.0
Fortified/functional (FF) 2,593.8 2,900.6 3,186.7 3,501.7 3,869.9 11.0
Naturally healthy (NH) 1,830.3 2,205.2 2,647.5 3,198.1 3,784.6 20.0
Better for you (BFY) 280.9 342.1 413.2 499.1 614.3 22.0
Organic 32.8 39.6 47.4 55.8 66.2 19.0
Free from 14.5 16.9 19.6 23.0 26.7 16.0

Source: Euromonitor International, 2019

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Health and wellness food product retail sales in India – forecast in US$ millions, fixed 2018 exchange rate
Category 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 CAGR* % 2019-2023
Health and wellness by type 9,578.5 10,946.0 12,460.6 14,077.0 15,905.9 14.0
Naturally healthy (NH) 4,490.2 5,287.5 6,192.6 7,245.0 8,434.7 17.0
Fortified/functional (FF) 4,243.0 4,635.6 5,032.6 5,343.2 5,664.5 7.0
Better for you (BFY) 736.6 896.2 1,087.5 1,323.2 1,621.4 22.0
Organic 78.0 91.8 108.4 121.3 135.6 15.0
Free from 30.6 34.8 39.4 44.4 49.7 13.0

Source: Euromonitor International, 2019

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

For more information

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Resources

Market Overview – India
Global Analysis Report

Prepared by: Laurie Bernardi, International Market Research Analyst

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