Canada: outlook for principal field crops, February 16, 2016

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This report provides an update of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's (AAFC) January outlook report for the current crop year, 2015-16, and the up-coming 2016-17 crop year. For most crops in Canada, the crop year runs from August 1 to July 31 but for corn and soybeans, it starts on September 1 and ends on August 31. For both crop years, the outlook continues to be clouded by uncertainty regarding the price of oil and the Canada/United States (U.S.) exchange rate.

For 2015-16, information has been incorporated from Statistics Canada's (STC) survey on Stocks of Principal Field Crops which was released on February 4, 2016. The survey of 8,600 Canadian farms was conducted from January 4 to 14, 2016. As of December 31, 2015, total stocks of most principal field crops were significantly lower than the same date in 2014 due to the significant decrease in the supply of field crops in 2015 compared to 2014. This information has been used in AAFCs forecast that carry-out stocks of field crops are expected to decrease from 14.6 million tonnes (Mt) for 2014-15 to 11.7 Mt for 2015-16. In general, abundant world supplies of grain have pressured world prices, but the weak Canadian dollar has provided strong support to prices in Canada. Grain prices are expected to average slightly higher than the 2014-15 level, with the exception of durum, oats and flaxseed. For lentils and, to a lesser extent, peas, prices have averaged significantly higher than last year. The value of the Canadian dollar is anticipated to remain at a discount of about 25 percent to the U.S. dollar.

For 2016-17, area seeded to field crops in Canada is forecast to increase for oilseeds and pulse crops while the area seeded to grains remains relatively flat compared to 2015-16. In western Canada, the area in summerfallow is forecast to continue its downward trend which will open up some area seeded for crops. For all crops, average or trend yields have been assumed. Total crop production is forecast to increase slightly to 84.7 Mt but total crop supply is forecast to decrease by almost 2% due to lower carry-in stocks. It is noteworthy that the production and supply of grains and oilseeds (G&O) in Canada is forecast to decrease slightly while the production of pulses and special crops, (P&SC), is expected to increase significantly. For G&O, carry-out stocks are expected to decrease to 10.5 Mt versus the 10-year average of about 13.5 Mt. For P&SC, carry-out stocks are forecast to increase to 1.4 Mt versus the 10 year average of about 0.9 Mt. In general, world grain prices are expected to be pressured downward by abundant supplies of grain globally but the impact on grain prices in Canada will be mitigated by the low value of the Canadian dollar which is forecast at Can$1.34 (Canadian dollar) per U.S. dollar.

Canada: Principal Field Crops Supply and Disposition

Total Grains and Oilseeds: February 16, 2016
2014-2015 2015-2016[f] 2016-2017[f]
kha: kilohectares
t/ha: tonnes per hectare
kt: kilotonnes
f: forecast, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, February 16, 2016
Source: Statistics Canada
Area seeded (kha) 26,057 26,323 26,749
Area harvested (kha) 25,086 25,358 25,858
Yield (t/ha) 2.98 3.06 2.98
Production (kt) 74,708 77,596 77,035
Imports (kt) 2,321 1,778 2,112
Total supply (kt) 95,428 92,689 90,252
Exports (kt) 42,899 41,018 39,908
Total Domestic Use (kt) 39,215 40,567 39,879
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 13,315 11,105 10,465

Total Pulses and Special Crops: February 16, 2016
2014-2015 2015-2016[f] 2016-2017[f]
kha: kilohectares
t/ha: tonnes per hectare
kt: kilotonnes
f: forecast, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, February 16, 2016
Source: Statistics Canada and industry consultations.
Area seeded (kha) 3,418 3,556 3,995
Area harvested (kha) 3,329 3,514 3,931
Yield (t/ha) 1.98 1.78 1.95
Production (kt) 6,584 6,257 7,650
Imports (kt) 168 164 166
Total supply (kt) 8,077 7,685 8,431
Exports (kt) 5,982 6,125 5,985
Total Domestic Use (kt) 831 945 1,061
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,264 615 1,385

All Principal Field Crops: February 16, 2016
2014-2015 2015-2016[f] 2016-2017[f]
kha: kilohectares
t/ha: tonnes per hectare
kt: kilotonnes
f: forecast, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, February 16, 2016
Source: Statistics Canada
Area seeded (kha) 29,475 29,879 30,744
Area harvested (kha) 28,415 28,872 29,789
Yield (t/ha) 2.86 2.90 2.84
Production (kt) 81,292 83,853 84,685
Imports (kt) 2,489 1,942 2,278
Total supply (kt) 103,505 100,374 98,683
Exports (kt) 48,881 47,143 45,893
Total Domestic Use (kt) 40,046 41,511 40,940
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 14,579 11,720 11,850

Wheat

Durum

For 2015-16, production rose by 4% from 2014-15 to 5.39 million tonnes (Mt). The average grade quality of the Canadian durum crop is much better than it was last year with 47% grading Number 1 and 2 CWAD, compared to only 11% for 2014-15 and 60% for the past ten-year average, according to the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC). The protein level is averaging 14%, compared to 12.8% for 2014-15 and 12.8% for the past ten-year average.

The supply of durum wheat in Canada is 8% lower than for 2014-15 as lower carry-in stocks more than offset the increase in production. Exports are expected to fall by 15% from 2014-15 to 4.4 Mt due to very low stocks of good quality durum at the beginning of the crop year, before new crop deliveries started, and lower demand from northern Africa, the European Union (EU) and the U.S. resulting from higher domestic production in these countries. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise by 15% to 1.1 Mt, which is lower than the past five-year average of 1.39 Mt.

World production of durum increased by 4.7 Mt from 2014-15 to 38 Mt due to higher seeded area and higher yields. Supply increased by 3.3 Mt to 43.9 Mt as the higher production was partly offset by lower carry-in stocks. Use is expected to rise by 2.5 Mt to 37.2 Mt due to the higher supply. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise by 0.8 Mt to 6.7 Mt. U.S. durum production increased by 0.77 Mt to 2.24 Mt.

The average producer price in Canada for the crop year is forecast to be lower than it was for 2015-16 due to a recovery in U.S. and world durum production from the low 2014-15 level and a return to near normal quality for Canada. These factors will more than offset support from the lower Canadian supply and the weaker Canadian dollar. Prices have fallen since the end of July.

For 2016-17, the area seeded in Canada is forecast to increase by 2% from 2015-16 due to relatively high prices in 2015-16 and a significant price premium to hard red spring wheat. Production is forecast to rise by 9% to 5.9 Mt as the increase in area is compounded by a return to trend yields, which are higher than the drought reduced yields of 2015-16. Supply is expected to increase by 10% as higher carry-in stocks compound the rise in production. Exports are forecast to increase by 11% because of higher Canadian stocks at the beginning of the crop year and expected lower production in northern Africa and the U.S.. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise by 18% to 1.3 Mt.

World durum production is forecast to fall by 0.6 Mt from 2015-16 at 37.4 Mt, while supply increases by 0.2 Mt to 44.1 Mt because of higher carry-in stocks. Use is expected to rise by 0.2 Mt to 37.4 Mt and carry-out stocks are forecast to be unchanged at 6.7 Mt. U.S. durum production is forecast to fall by 10% to 2.0 Mt, while supply decreases by 2% to 3.9 Mt, as the fall in production is mostly offset by higher carry-in stocks.

The average Canadian producer price for the crop year is forecast to be lower than for 2015-16 due to the expected higher Canadian supply and the forecast for a slightly stronger Canadian dollar.

Durum [a]: February 16, 2016
2014-2015 2015-2016[f] 2016-2017[f]
[a] Crop year is August-July.
[b] Imports exclude products.
[c] Exports include grain products, while excluding oilseed products.
[d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Total number excludes flaxseed food and industrial use due to data confidentiality.
[e] Total domestic use = Food and industrial use + Feed waste and dockage + Seed use + Loss in handling
[g] Crop year average prices: Wheat (No.1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No.1 Canada Western Amber Durum (CWAD), 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices and are not comparable to CWB pool returns for previous years.
kha: kilohectares
t/ha: tonnes per hectare
kt: kilotonnes
$/t: dollars per tonne
f: forecast, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, February 16, 2016
Source: Statistics Canada
Area seeded (kha) 1,922 2,355 2,400
Area harvested (kha) 1,886 2,327 2,364
Yield (t/ha) 2.75 2.32 2.50
Production (kt) 5,193 5,389 5,900
Imports (kt) [b] 7 10 5
Total supply (kt) 6,939 6,355 7,005
Exports (kt) [c] 5,173 4,400 4,900
Food & Industrial Use (kt) [d] 200 210 210
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 383 417 372
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 810 855 805
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 956 1,100 1,300
Average Price ($/t) [g] 310 280-310 245-275

Wheat (excluding durum)

For 2015-16, production fell by 8% from 2014-15 to 22.2 Mt. The average grade quality of Canada Western Red Spring (CWRS) wheat is better than it was last year with 68% grading Number 1 and 2 CWRS, compared to 50% for 2014-15 and 70% for the past ten-year average, according to the CGC. The protein level is averaging 14.1%, compared to 13.4% for 2014-15 and an average protein level of 13.5% over the past ten years. Production declined for individual classes of wheat except for Extra Strong and Canada Eastern hard spring wheat (CERS), with Canada Western hard red spring wheat (CWRS) accounting for 76% of the total production compared to 73% for 2014-15.

Canadian supply decreased by 14%, as the drop in production was compounded by lower carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to decrease by 7% to 17.5 Mt because of the lower supply. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 51% to a low 3 Mt, 52% lower than the past five-year average of 5.8 Mt.

World all wheat (including durum) production increased by 10 Mt to a new record of 736 Mt. Supply rose by 30 Mt to 950 Mt, as the increase in production was compounded by higher carry-in stocks. Total use is forecast to increase by 6 Mt to 711 Mt, mainly in the food market. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise by 24 Mt to 239 Mt.

U.S. wheat production increased by 0.7 Mt to 55.8 Mt, while supply increased by 4.3 Mt to 79.6 Mt because of higher carry-in stocks. U.S. domestic use is expected to rise by 2% and exports are forecast to fall by 9%. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by 5.8 Mt to 26.3 Mt.

The average crop year producer price in Canada for wheat is forecast to be higher than for 2014-15 because of the lower Canadian supply and the weaker Canadian dollar.

For 2016-17, area seeded in Canada is forecast to decrease marginally as a 24% increase for winter wheat is more than offset by a 2% decline for spring wheat. The increase in seeded area for winter wheat was in Ontario where seeding conditions in the fall of 2015 were much better than in the previous fall. The winter wheat seeded area in western Canada was nearly the same as for 2015-16. In western Canada, spring wheat has competition from durum, oilseeds and pulses which is expected to limit the seeded area. Production is forecast to increase by 5% to 23.3 Mt because of higher yields. Supply is expected to fall by 7% as the rise in production is more than offset by lower carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to fall by 9% to 16 Mt because of the lower supply. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 7% to 2.8 Mt.

World all wheat (including durum) production is forecast to decrease by 20 Mt to 715 Mt because of lower seeded area and lower yields. The supply is forecast to rise by 4 Mt to 947 Mt, as lower production is more than offset by higher carry-in stocks. Total use is forecast to increase by 9 Mt to 720 Mt due to growing demand in the food market. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 14 Mt to 225 Mt.

U.S. winter wheat seeded area fell by 7% from 2015-16 and the spring wheat area is expected to decrease by 4%, resulting in a 6% overall decrease. Production is forecast to decrease by 2.3 Mt to 53.5 Mt, while supply increases by 3.6 Mt to 83.2 Mt. Domestic use is expected to rise by 0.5 Mt and exports are forecast to rise by 1.9 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by 1.2 Mt to 27.5 Mt.

The average crop year producer price in Canada for wheat is forecast to be the same as for 2015-16 because support from the lower Canadian supply is expected to be offset by the forecast for a slightly stronger Canadian dollar, the higher U.S. supply and the higher world supply.

Wheat Except Durum [a]: February 16, 2016
2014-2015 2015-2016[f] 2016-2017[f]
[a] Crop year is August-July.
[b] Imports exclude products.
[c] Exports include grain products, while excluding oilseed products.
[d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Total number excludes flaxseed food and industrial use due to data confidentiality.
[e] Total domestic use = Food and industrial use + Feed waste and dockage + Seed use + Loss in handling
[g] Crop year average prices: Wheat (No.1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No.1 Canada Western Amber Durum (CWAD), 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices and are not comparable to CWB pool returns for previous years.
kha: kilohectares
t/ha: tonnes per hectare
kt: kilotonnes
$/t: dollars per tonne
f: forecast, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, February 16, 2016
Source: Statistics Canada
Area seeded (kha) 7,869 7,445 7,420
Area harvested (kha) 7,594 7,250 7,235
Yield 3.19 3.06 3.22
Production (kt) 24,227 22,205 23,300
Imports (b) 80 90 80
Total supply (kt) 32,973 28,414 26,380
Exports (kt) [c] 18,768 17,500 16,000
Food & Industrial Use (kt) [d] 3,292 3,370 3,380
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 4,030 3,779 3,424
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 8,087 7,914 7,580
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 6,119 3,000 2,800
Average Price ($/t) [g] 210 215-245 215-245
All Wheat [a]: February 16, 2016
2014-2015 2015-2016[f] 2016-2017[f]
[a] Crop year is August-July
[b] Imports exclude products.
[c] Exports include grain products, while excluding oilseed products.
[d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Total number excludes flaxseed food and industrial use due to data confidentiality.
[e] Total domestic use = Food and industrial use + Feed waste and dockage + Seed use + Loss in handling
kha: kilohectares
t/ha: tonnes per hectare
kt: kilotonnes
$/t: dollars per tonne
f: forecast, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, February 16, 2016
Source: Statistics Canada
Area seeded (kha) 9,791 9,800 9,820
Area harvested (kha) 9,480 9,577 9,599
Yield (t/ha) 3.10 2.88 3.04
Production (kt) 29,420 27,594 29,200
Imports (kt) [b] 87 100 85
Total supply (kt) 39,912 34,769 33,385
Exports (kt) [c] 23,941 21,900 20,900
Food & Industrial Use (kt) [d] 3,492 3,580 3,590
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 4,412 4,196 3,796
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 8,897 8,769 8,385
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 7,075 4,100 4,100

Coarse Grains

Barley

For 2015-16, total domestic use is forecast to increase by 10% to 6.1 million tonnes (Mt) due to higher feed use while industrial use remains unchanged. Exports are forecast to decrease due to lower world feed barley trade despite steady exports of malting barley. Carry-out stocks of barley are forecast to increase to 1.7 Mt, which is higher than the previous five-year average. The Lethbridge cash feed barley price is forecast to increase from 2014-15 due to the tight total supply, good domestic feed barley demand and steady demand for malt quality.

Given the drought-like conditions suffered across the western prairies, this past growing season, the increase to the supply was unexpected. As of December 31, Canadian barley stocks are about 4% higher than 2014 but 2% lower than the previous five-year average. Commercial stocks are 32% lower than 2014 indicating the slower pace into the elevator system to-date. For the Prairie Provinces, the main barley producing region, farm stocks are 6% higher than last year although they are largely unchanged compared to the previous five-year average.

Throughout January, Lethbridge cash barley traded in a very flat channel with a slight appreciation in value into the first half of February. Unlike last crop year, it has remained at a discount to Lethbridge feed wheat prices for most of the crop year. World feed barley prices have softened. Argentina remains the lowest cost source for feed barley and corn. For 2016, the world malt barley price has been steady and its premium to feed barley is about U.S.$50/t higher than the previous five-year average.

For 2016-17, seeded area is forecast to increase 2% from 2015-16 due to good barley values especially if it is selected for malt barley. Production is forecast to increase 2% to 8.4 Mt due to the higher area. Total supply is forecast to increase by 6% to 10.2 Mt due to higher production and higher carry-in stocks. Total domestic use is forecast to increase due mainly to slightly higher feed use in cattle and hog production. Exports are forecast to increase by 18% due to the lower world supply and a return to normal trade patterns. Despite higher total use and exports, barley carryout stocks are forecast to increase by 12% to 1.9 Mt, above the previous five and ten-year averages. The Lethbridge cash feed barley price is forecast to decrease from 2015-16 due to the higher supply of feed barley.

Barley [a]: February 16, 2016
2014-2015 2015-2016[f] 2016-2017[f]
[a] Crop year is August-July.
[b] Imports exclude products.
[c] Exports include grain products, while excluding oilseed products.
[d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Total number excludes flaxseed food and industrial use due to data confidentiality.
[e] Total domestic use = Food and industrial use + Feed waste and dockage + Seed use + Loss in handling
[g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Barley (No.1 feed, cash, in-store Lethbridge).
kha: kilohectares
t/ha: tonnes per hectare
kt: kilotonnes
$/t: dollars per tonne
f: forecast, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, February 16, 2016
Source: Statistics Canada
Area seeded (kha) 2,380 2,641 2,700
Area harvested (kha) 2,136 2,354 2,450
Yield (t/ha) 3.33 3.50 3.43
Production (kt) 7,119 8,226 8,400
Imports (kt) [b] 136 100 50
Total supply (kt) 9,205 9,543 10,150
Exports (kt) [c] 2,462 1,775 2,100
Food & Industrial Use (kt) [d] 467 469 476
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 5,059 5,599 5,674
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 5,526 6,068 6,150
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,217 1,700 1,900
Average Price ($/t) [g] 201 200-230 190-220

Corn

For 2015-16, total domestic use is forecast to increase by 3% due to slight increases in feed and industrial uses. Exports are forecast to increase by 80% to 0.75 Mt but remain well below the previous five-year average due to large world corn supplies in importing and exporting countries. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by 53% to a record high of 2.2 Mt. The Chatham corn price is forecast to increase from 2014-15 due to a flat U.S. corn future's price and a very favourable Canada/U.S. exchange rate.

Statistics Canada indicated that total commercial and farm corn stocks are 12% and 19%, respectively, higher than the previous five and ten-year averages. However, commercial stocks are showing the largest gain and are 34% higher than 2014. The 2015 barley crop in eastern Canada is much better in terms of bushel weight, grade and moisture compared to last year's difficult harvest. The province of Quebec saw the largest increase in farm stocks, going up 24% compared to 2014 and 13% relative to the previous three-year average. Although small compared to Ontario and Quebec, Manitoba is the largest corn producer in western Canada and had near record yields in 2015. Although its farm stocks are only 4% higher than 2014, they are 44% higher than the previous 10-year average due to higher production.

For the nearby Chatham corn price, the bullish impact of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) January reports continued for the U.S. corn futures prices as they gained about U.S.$0.20/bushel (bu). However the sharp appreciation in the Canadian dollar limited Chatham's overall price gains. The Chatham nearby basis level is currently well above the previous five-year average. Over the past month, the world average corn price increased with the U.S. corn futures prices. The price spread between the major exporters has narrowed. The pace of U.S. corn exports is lower than last year and new crop South American corn will begin general harvest soon. However, the weaker U.S. dollar may boost U.S. corn exports.

For 2016-17, seeded area is forecast to decrease by 4% from 2015-16 due to the forecasted higher eastern Canadian winter wheat area and competition from competing crops. Carry-in stocks are expected to be at record levels. Production is forecast to decrease 11% to 12.1 Mt due to the lower area and average yields. Imports are forecast to increase by 33% due to the lower domestic supply. Despite record carry-in stocks and higher imports, the lower production will cause total supply to decrease by 2%. Total domestic usage is forecast to increase slightly by 2% to near record levels due to trend increases in ethanol production, industrial use and livestock feeding. Exports are forecast to decrease by 33% due to the tighter total supply and high world corn stocks within the major corn exporting countries. Carryout stocks are forecast to decrease by 16% to 1.8 Mt and remain above the previous five and ten-year averages.

The Chatham corn price is forecast to remain unchanged as a slight increase to the projected U.S. corn futures will be offset by a stronger Canadian dollar. Currently for the Chatham market, the weak Canadian dollar continues to provide good new crop corn pricing opportunities as the spread between old and crop basis levels remains tight and there is carry in the December 2016 U.S. corn futures contract.

Corn [a]: February 16, 2016
2014-2015 2015-2016[f] 2016-2017[f]
[a] Crop year is September-August.
[b] Imports exclude products.
[c] Exports include grain products, while excluding oilseed products.
[d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Total number excludes flaxseed food and industrial use due to data confidentiality.
[e] Total domestic use = Food and industrial use + Feed waste and dockage + Seed use + Loss in handling
[g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Corn (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham).
kha: kilohectares
t/ha: tonnes per hectare
kt: kilotonnes
$/t: dollars per tonne
f: forecast, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, February 16, 2016
Source: Statistics Canada
Area seeded (kha) 1,246 1,325 1,275
Area harvested (kha) 1,227 1,312 1,260
Yield (t/ha) 9.36 10.34 9.60
Production (kt) 11,487 13,559 12,100
Imports (kt) [b] 1,660 1,200 1,600
Total supply (kt) 14,747 16,161 15,850
Exports (kt) [c] 416 750 500
Food & Industrial Use (kt) [d] 5,374 5,465 5,516
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 7,555 7,796 8,034
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 12,929 13,261 13,550
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,402 2,150 1,800
Average Price ($/t) [g] 172 170-200 170-200

Oats

For 2015-16, exports are forecast to decrease by 5% due to higher 2015 U.S. oat stocks and production. Oat grain exports are forecasted to decrease. However, there is a forecasted 11% increase in oat product exports to record levels. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase 25% to 0.85 Mt due to the higher total supply and lower overall total disappearance. U.S. oat futures prices are forecast to decrease for 2015-16 due to the higher North American oat supplies but the weak Canadian dollar provides strong support.

As of December 31, Statistics Canada reported that total oat stocks were unchanged from 2014 but were 5% higher than the previous five-average. For 2015, Statistics Canada data showed a slight decline of 2% for farm stocks while commercial stocks were up by 17%. For western Canada, farm stocks increased in Manitoba by 5% but declined by , 28% and 3%, respectively in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

In 2015, oat and barley producers in Ontario joined the Grain Farmers of Ontario (GFO). Their objective is to increase oat and barley production in Ontario. After recent area declines for eastern Canada, oat seeded area is returning to levels not seen for the last eight to ten years. A few years of high oat prices, market opportunities and rotational considerations are all factors in the resurgence. The higher North American oat supply has been bearish to the nearby Chicago oat futures as in the past month they moved in an opposite direction to the upturn in the U.S. corn futures and are hovering near U.S.$2/bu.

For 2016-17, seeded area is forecast to decrease 6% from 2015-16 due to the sharp price decline in the U.S. oat futures and competitive pricing in other cropping choices. Despite the decline in area, production is forecast to decrease only 1% due a forecast for average yields and a return to an average rate of abandonment. With carry-in stocks slightly higher than the previous five-year average at 0.85Mt and only slightly lower production, this will allow forecasted total supply to increase by 3%. Total domestic usage is forecast to increase by 1% as growth in feed use and human consumption remains flat. Exports are forecast to increase by 5% to 2.3 Mt due to slightly higher year-to-year demand from the U.S.. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase slightly to 0.88 Mt due to higher supply.

The Canadian oat price is forecast to increase slightly as the forecasted higher U.S. oat futures price is offset by the forecasted stronger Canadian dollar. Similar to the nearby oat future's price, the Chicago December 2016 contract is also drifting lower with low levels of volume and open interest. Unless end users and elevator companies have been using high levels of flat priced new crop contracting it would appear there has been very little product hedged into the 2016-17 crop year.

Oats [a]: February 16, 2016
2014-2015 2015-2016[f] 2016-2017[f]
[a] Crop year is August-July.
[b] Imports exclude products.
[c] Exports include grain products, while excluding oilseed products.
[d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Total number excludes flaxseed food and industrial use due to data confidentiality.
[e] Total domestic use = Food and industrial use + Feed waste and dockage + Seed use + Loss in handling
[g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Oats (U.S. No.2 Heavy, Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) nearby futures)
kha: kilohectares
t/ha: tonnes per hectare
kt: kilotonnes
$/t: dollars per tonne
f: forecast, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, February 16, 2016
Source: Statistics Canada
Area seeded (kha) 1,132 1,350 1,275
Area harvested (kha) 912 1,055 1,050
Yield (t/ha) 3.27 3.25 3.24
Production (kt) 2,979 3,428 3,400
Imports (kt) [b] 19 18 17
Total supply (kt) 4,052 4,127 4,267
Exports (kt) [c] 2,321 2,200 2,300
Food & Industrial Use (kt) [d] 164 166 166
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 887 911 926
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 1,051 1,077 1,092
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 681 850 875
Average Price ($/t) [g] 241 195-225 205-235

Rye

For 2015-16, total domestic use is forecast to decrease 5% due to lower feed use. Exports are forecast to increase by 6% due to continuing strong export demand. Rye carryout stocks are forecast to increase by 18% to 0.05 Mt, this is slightly above the previous five-year average. Canadian rye prices are forecast to be slightly higher than 2014-15.

As of December 31, Statistics Canada estimated farm and commercial rye stocks to be 5% higher than in 2014. There continues to be tight supplies of Canadian rye because farm stocks are only 1% higher than last year and, although commercial stocks were 33% higher, there was a reduction in actual tonnage. In the Western Canada is the main rye-producing region, Western Canada, farm stocks declined in every category. When comparing farm stocks to last year there is an estimated decrease of 12% for Western Canada, however when considering any longer term previous average the declines range from 24% to 56% depending on the province. Similar to barley and oats, rye area is gaining in eastern Canada although total areas are small when compared to western Canada. The high price of rye over the past two years, and low input costs, are making rye an attractive cropping option.

For 2016-17, seeded area is forecast to increase sharply by 36% from 2015-16. This is higher than both the previous five and 10-year averages. Production is forecast to increase by 46% due to the higher seeded area, an average rate of abandonment and a return to average yields. Due to higher carry-in stocks, near the previous three-year average, and the production increase, total supply is forecast to increase sharply by 42% to 0.38 Mt or higher than the previous five and 10-year averages. Total domestic use is forecast to increase 10% due to increases in feed use and industrial use. Exports are forecast to double due to the higher total supply. Rye carry-out stocks are forecast to rise by 20% to 0.06 Mt.

Canadian rye prices are forecast to remain unchanged from 2015-16 due to the continued strong demand from the domestic and international beer and spirits industries. With the highest Canadian rye area in seven years there is the potential of a long awaited rebound in supply and the forecast for steady prices will be encouraging for producers' farm income.

Rye [a]: February 16, 2016
2014-2015 2015-2016[f] 2016-2017[f]
[a] Crop year is August-July.
[b] Imports exclude products.
[c] Exports include grain products, while excluding oilseed products.
[d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Total number excludes flaxseed food and industrial use due to data confidentiality.
[e] Total domestic use = Food and industrial use + Feed waste and dockage + Seed use + Loss in handling
[g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Rye (No.1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon)
kha: kilohectares
t/ha: tonnes per hectare
kt: kilotonnes
$/t: dollars per tonne
f: forecast, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, February 16, 2016
Source: Statistics Canada
Area seeded (kha) 113 120 164
Area harvested (kha) 82 95 130
Yield (t/ha) 2.65 2.39 2.54
Production (kt) 218 226 330
Imports (kt) [b] 0 0 0
Total supply (kt) 262 268 380
Exports (kt) [c] 88 93 183
Food & Industrial Use (kt) [d] 51 51 54
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 81 74 83
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 132 125 137
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 42 50 60
Average Price ($/t) [g] 217 210-240 210-240
Mixed Grains [a]: February 16, 2016
2014-2015 2015-2016[f] 2016-2017[f]
[a] August-July crop year
[b] Imports exclude products.
[c] Exports include grain products, while excluding oilseed products.
[d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Total number excludes flaxseed food and industrial use due to data confidentiality.
[e] Total domestic use = Food and industrial use + Feed waste and dockage + Seed use + Loss in handling
kha: kilohectares
t/ha: tonnes per hectare
kt: kilotonnes
f: forecast, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, February 16, 2016
Source: Statistics Canada
Area seeded (kha) 96 100 105
Area harvested (kha) 50 52 50
Yield (t/ha) 3.11 3.00 3.10
Production (kt) 155 156 155
Imports (kt) [b] 0 0 0
Total supply (kt) 155 156 155
Exports (kt) [c] 0 0 0
Food & Industrial Use (kt) [d] 0 0 0
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 155 156 155
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 155 156 155
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 0 0 0
Total Coarse Grains: February 16, 2016
2014-2015 2015-2016[f] 2016-2017[f]
[b] Imports exclude products.
[c] Exports include grain products, while excluding oilseed products.
[d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Total number excludes flaxseed food and industrial use due to data confidentiality.
[e] Total domestic use = Food and industrial use + Feed waste and dockage + Seed use + Loss in handling
kha: kilohectares
t/ha: tonnes per hectare
kt: kilotonnes
f: forecast, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, February 16, 2016
Source: Statistics Canada
Area Seeded 4,966 5,537 5,519
Area harvested (kha) 4,407 4,866 4,940
Yield (t/ha) 4.98 5.26 4.94
Production (kt) 21,957 25,594 24,385
Imports (kt) [b] 1,815 1,318 1,667
Total supply (kt) 28,421 30,254 30,802
Exports (kt) [c] 5,286 4,818 5,083
Food & Industrial Use (kt) [d] 6,055 6,151 6,212
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 13,737 14,535 14,872
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 19,793 20,686 21,084
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 3,342 4,750 4,635

Oilseeds

Canola

For 2015-16, the Statistic Canada's December 31, 2015 stocks report supported the canola production estimate of 17.2 Mt as calendar year stocks of 12.1 Mt equalled production minus exports and crush to that date. This should reduce the uncertainty surrounding the canola production estimate -which was raised 2.9 Mt between the mid and post-harvest surveys in 2015.

For the crop year to-date, movement of Canadian canola is brisk on support from strong export buying, active crush pace and the devalued Canadian dollar. Exports to-date are 17% ahead of last year due to strong Chinese, Japanese and Mexican buying. Shipments to the United Arab Emirates and Pakistan are also up while exports to the U.S. have declined. Similarly, the domestic crush pace is running 12% of this time last year. If the current pace can be maintained, the 2015-16 crush may come in slightly above AAFC forecasts of a record 8.2 Mt, versus 7.4 Mt for 2014-15.

Compared to last year at this time, the Canadian dollar has declined by 11%, to around C$1.41=U.S.$1.00. This has supported movement of and prices for Canadian canola. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 25%, to about 1.75 Mt for a stocks-to-use ratio of 10%. Canola prices are forecast about $20/t higher than last year on support from the lower Canadian dollar and tightening world vegetable oil supplies.

Factors to watch include the South American soybean harvest, U.S. soybean usage pace, world palm oil prices and volatility in the Chinese financial markets. The Brazilian soybean harvest has started and early reports indicate yields are near normal which supports the USDA's projection for a record Brazilian soybean crop of 100 Mt. U.S. soybean usage is slower than expected, with export inspections running 13% behind the 2014-15 pace, despite record U.S. supplies.

U.S. processors are crushing about 5.0 Mt of soybeans per month while the canola crush pace ranges from 99,000 t to 166,000 t per month for the first third of the crop year. World palm oil prices are about 15% below levels a year ago, with Malaysian refined, bleached and deodorized oil being offered at about U.S.$540/t, FOB port. To-date, the Chinese financial and stock market uncertainty which dominated media headlines has had little impact on canola purchases from Canada.

For 2016-17, seeded area for canola is forecast to increase by 4%, to 8.4 million hectares on attractive returns compared to other field crops. Production is forecast to decline slightly to 16.8 Mt. Supplies are forecast to decrease by 5%, to 18.6 Mt, as lower carry-in stocks complement the fall in output. Exports are forecast to decline to 9.2 Mt, on the tighter domestic supplies and in the face of steady to strong world demand. Likewise domestic processing is forecast to decline slightly to 8.0 Mt as tighter supplies hamper the sector's ability to service the growing world demand for canola oil and canola meal. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 31%, to 1.3 Mt for a stocks-to-use ratio of 7%. As the result of a comparatively strong world vegetable oil market and tight stocks-to-use ratio, the price of canola is forecast to rise slightly from 2015-16, to $510/t to $550/t.

Canola [a]: February 16, 2016
2014-2015 2015-2016[f] 2016-2017[f]
[a] Crop year is August-July.
[b] Imports exclude products.
[c] Exports include grain products, while excluding oilseed products.
[d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Total number excludes flaxseed food and industrial use due to data confidentiality.
[e] Total domestic use = Food and industrial use + Feed waste and dockage + Seed use + Loss in handling
[g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Canola (No.1 Canada, cash, Track Vancouver)
kha: kilohectares
t/ha: tonnes per hectare
kt: kilotonnes
$/t: dollars per tonne
f: forecast, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, February 16, 2016
Source: Statistics Canada
Area seeded (kha) 8,407 8,132 8,435
Area harvested (kha) 8,344 8,083 8,369
Yield (t/ha) 1.97 2.13 2.01
Production (kt) 16,410 17,231 16,800
Imports (kt) [b] 77 100 100
Total supply (kt) 19,495 19,653 18,650
Exports (kt) [c] 9,161 9,500 9,200
Food & Industrial Use (kt) [d] 7,360 8,200 8,000
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 593 152 99
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 8,012 8,403 8,150
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 2,322 1,750 1,300
Average Price ($/t) [g] 489 495-525 510-550

Flaxseed

For 2015-16, the feed, waste and dockage (FWD) estimate on the supply and demand balance sheet was raised to historically high levels following a discrepancy between the production and farm stocks surveys. The FWD estimate may be adjusted throughout the crop year pending the results of follow up farm stock surveys.

The pace of use is steady with exports forecast to decline marginally to 0.70 Mt. Total domestic use is forecast to rise sharply, to 0.22 million tonnes on the high feed, waste and dockage estimate, while carry-out stocks rise by about one-third to 0.13 Mt. Flaxseed prices have declined sharply from 2014-15 and are estimated at $450-480/t.

For 2016-17, seeded area for flaxseed is forecast to increase by 5%, to 0.70 million hectares, as returns are expected to remain competitive against alternate field crops. Production is forecast to decrease marginally, assuming a drop in yields to more normal levels. Supplies are forecast to decline marginally in line with the lower output. Exports are forecast to rise slightly from 2015-16 to 0.83 Mt, as world demand is expected to remain fairly stable. Total domestic use is forecast to fall due to a drop in feed, waste and dockage. Carry-out stocks are forecast unchanged while flaxseed prices rise to $460-500/t for 2016-17.

Flaxseed (excluding solin) [a]: February 16, 2016
2014-2015 2015-2016[f] 2016-2017[f]
[a] Crop year is August-July.
[b] Imports exclude products.
[c] Exports include grain products, while excluding oilseed products.
[d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Total number excludes flaxseed food and industrial use due to data confidentiality.
[e] Total domestic use = Food and industrial use + Feed waste and dockage + Seed use + Loss in handling
[g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Flaxseed (No.1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon)
kha: kilohectares
t/ha: tonnes per hectare
kt: kilotonnes
$/t: dollars per tonne
n/a: not available
f: forecast, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, February 16, 2016
Source: Statistics Canada
Area seeded (kha) 641 664 700
Area harvested (kha) 621 646 685
Yield (t/ha) 1.41 1.46 1.31
Production (kt) 873 942 900
Imports (kt) [b] 11 10 10
Total supply (kt) 975 1,049 1,040
Exports (kt) [c] 708 700 825
Food & Industrial Use (kt) [d] n/a n/a n/a
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 140 193 65
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 170 219 85
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 97 130 130
Average Price ($/t) [g] 513 450-480 460-500

Soybeans

For 2015-16, exports are forecast at a record 4.1 Mt, up from 3.8 Mt in 2014-15 on support from a wide basis and devaluation of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar. This is offsetting the effects of competition from burdensome world soybean supplies. Domestic processing of soybeans is forecast at a record 2.0 Mt, up 12% from last year on strong demand for meal and oil. Carry-out stocks are projected at 0.38 Mt. Soybean prices are forecast marginally lower at $400-430/t.

For 2016-17, planted area is forecast to rise by 4%, to 2.3 mln ha, on expected good returns. Production is forecast to decline by 8%, to 5.8 Mt, as yields are assumed to decline to normal from the bumper experienced in 2014-15. Supplies are forecast to decrease by 9% due to lower carry-in stocks and lower production. Exports are forecast to fall by 0.2 Mt, to 3.9 Mt, on a combination of reduced world demand and tightened domestic supplies. The domestic crush is also forecast to fall by 0.3 Mt on a lack of domestic soybean supplies and competition from burdensome world soyoil and soymeal supplies. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall to 0.30 Mt from 0.38 Mt in 2014-15.

Soybean prices are forecast unchanged from last year at $395/t-$435/t as pressure from lower U.S. soybean prices is offset by the weakness of the Canadian dollar. The main factors to watch are South American production and exports, U.S. planting intentions, the impact of Chinese financial instability on soybean imports and changes in exchange rate values.

Soybeans [a] : February 16, 2016
2014-2015 2015-2016[f] 2016-2017[f]
[a] Crop year is September-August.
[b] Imports exclude products.
[c] Exports include grain products, while excluding oilseed products.
[d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Total number excludes flaxseed food and industrial use due to data confidentiality.
[e] Total domestic use = Food and industrial use + Feed waste and dockage + Seed use + Loss in handling
[g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Soybeans (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham)
kha: kilohectares
t/ha: tonnes per hectare
kt: kilotonnes
$/t: dollars per tonne
f: forecast, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, February 16, 2016
Source: Canadian Oilseed Processors Association (soybean food and industrial use only), Statistics Canada
Area seeded (kha) 2,251 2,190 2,275
Area harvested (kha) 2,235 2,185 2,265
Yield (t/ha) 2.71 2.85 2.54
Production (kt) 6,049 6,235 5,750
Imports (kt) [b] 331 250 250
Total supply (kt) 6,625 6,964 6,375
Exports (kt) [c] 3,803 4,100 3,900
Food & Industrial Use (kt) [d] 1,787 2,000 1,700
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 330 264 275
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 2,343 2,489 2,175
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 479 375 300
Average Price ($/t) [g] 418 400-430 395-435
Total Oilseeds : February 16, 2016
2014-2015 2015-2016[f] 2016-2017[f]
[b] Imports exclude products.
[c] Exports include grain products, while excluding oilseed products.
[d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Total number excludes flaxseed food and industrial use due to data confidentiality.
[e] Total domestic use = Food and industrial use + Feed waste and dockage + Seed use + Loss in handling
kha: kilohectares
t/ha: tonnes per hectare
kt: kilotonnes
$/t: dollars per tonne
f: forecast, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, February 16, 2016
Source: Statistics Canada
Area seeded (kha) 11,300 10,986 11,410
Area harvested (kha) 11,200 10,914 11,319
Yield (t/ha) 2.08 2.24 2.07
Production (kt) 23,331 24,409 23,450
Imports (kt) [b] 419 360 360
Total supply (kt) 27,095 27,666 26,065
Exports (kt) [c] 13,672 14,300 13,925
Food & Industrial Use (kt) [d] 9,148 10,200 9,700
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 1,062 610 439
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 10,525 11,112 10,410
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 2,898 2,255 1,730
Total Grains and Oilseeds : February 16, 2016
2014-2015 2015-2016[f] 2016-2017[f]
[b] Imports exclude products.
[c] Exports include grain products, while excluding oilseed products.
[d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Total number excludes flaxseed food and industrial use due to data confidentiality.
[e] Total domestic use = Food and industrial use + Feed waste and dockage + Seed use + Loss in handling
kha: kilohectares
t/ha: tonnes per hectare
kt: kilotonnes
$/t: dollars per tonne
f: forecast, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, February 16, 2016
Source: Statistics Canada
Area seeded (kha) 26,057 26,323 26,749
Area harvested (kha) 25,086 25,358 25,858
Yield (t/ha) 2.98 3.06 2.98
Production (kt) 74,708 77,596 77,035
Imports (kt) [b] 2,321 1,778 2,112
Total supply (kt) 95,428 92,689 90,252
Exports (kt) [c] 42,899 41,018 39,908
Food & Industrial Use (kt) [d] 18,695 19,931 19,502
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 19,212 19,341 19,107
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 39,215 40,567 39,879
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 13,315 11,105 10,465

Pulses and Special Crops

Dry Peas

For 2015-16, exports are expected to decrease marginally to 3.0 Mt, as exports to two of Canada's top three markets, China and Bangladesh, are expected to decrease from

During the month of January, the on-farm price of yellow peas in Saskatchewan rose by $45/t while the green pea price rose by $24/t. This was largely due to continued solid export demand and early indications that the seeded area for the winter pulse crop in India is expected to be 3% lower than last year. If a second consecutive lower than average pulse crop in India is realized, the export demand for Canadian dry peas expected to continue through the remainder of the crop year. The other factor is the continued weakness of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar. Yellow dry peas prices are expected to maintain a premium of C$80/t over green dry peas, compared to the C$30/t premium green peas had over yellow peas in 2014-15.

U.S. dry pea production is estimated by the USDA at a record 0.8 Mt, an increase of 7% from 2014-15. This was largely due to a sharp increase to a record area but tempered by below average yields. Canadian dry pea exports to the U.S. are at a below average pace, as evidenced by weak export demand from the August-December period of 2015.

For 2016-17, seeded area is forecast to rise by 14% from 2015-16 to a record 1.7 Mha because of higher potential returns relative to other crops, good logistical movement and solid export demand. Production is expected to increase by 28% to a record 4.1 Mt, due to a return to higher expected yields area. Supply is forecast to rise by 16% due to lower carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to be slightly higher than 2015-16 and despite this, carry-out stocks are expected to increase sharply. The average price is expected to remain strong due to strong global demand but be lower than 2015-16.

Dry Peas [a]: February 16, 2016
2014-2015 2015-2016[f] 2016-2017[f]
[a] Crop year is August-July.
[b] Imports and exports exclude products.
[c] Total domestic use = Food and industrial use + Feed waste and dockage + Seed use + Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
[d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
kha: kilohectares
t/ha: tonnes per hectare
kt: kilotonnes
$/t: dollars per tonne
f: forecast, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, February 16, 2016
Source: Statistics Canada and industry consultations.
Area seeded (kha) 1,613 1,489 1,700
Area harvested (kha) 1,588 1,470 1,675
Yield (t/ha) 2.40 2.18 2.45
Production (kt) 3,810 3,201 4,100
Imports (kt) [b] 31 29 30
Total supply (kt) 4,170 3,914 4,530
Exports (b) 3,091 3,000 3,100
Total Domestic Use (c) 395 514 630
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 684 400 800
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 20 11 21
Average Price (d) 260 360-390 300-330

Lentils

For 2015-16, exports are forecast to increase to a record 2.4 Mt due to strong import demand. Record exports to India and Turkey, two of Canada's top export destinations, are the main source of the increase. Carry-out stocks are expected to fall to the lowest level since 2009-10. The overall average price is forecast to rise to record levels from 2014-15 due to the tight Canadian carry-out stocks, strong import demand from India and the weakness of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar.

During the month of January, the on-farm price of large green lentils in Saskatchewan rose by $130/t while the red lentil price increased by $25/t. This was largely due to continued record export demand. The other factor is the continued weakness of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar. Prices for No.1 large green lentils are expected to maintain a premium of C$345/t over No.1 red lentil prices, compared to a C$135/t premium in 2014-15.

For 2015-16, U.S. lentil production, mostly green types is estimated at 0.24 Mt, up 53% from 2014-15. Canada is a minor exporter to the U.S.. Canadian lentils exports to the U.S. are expected to be lower than 2014-15, when a record 37 kt was shipped.

For 2016-17, area seeded in Canada is forecast to increase by 13% to a record 1.8 Mha, due to record prices the previous year and expectations for continued strong export demand. The combination of a higher yield and area forecast is expected to result in production increasing by 20% to a record 2.85 Mt. However, due to tight carry-in stocks, supply is forecast to increase by only 8% to 2.96 Mt. Exports are expected to be lower than 2015-16 at 2.2 Mt despite the larger exportable supply. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase sharply. With the assumption of a more normal grade distribution and lower grade discounts, the overall lentil price is forecast to decrease sharply from 2015-16.

Lentils [a]: February 16, 2016
2014-2015 2015-2016[f] 2016-2017[f]
[a] Crop year is August-July.
[b] Imports and exports exclude products.
[c] Total domestic use = Food and industrial use + Feed waste and dockage + Seed use + Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
[d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
kha: kilohectares
t/ha: tonnes per hectare
kt: kilotonnes
$/t: dollars per tonne
f: forecast, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, February 16, 2016
Source: Statistics Canada and industry consultations.
Area seeded (kha) 1,263 1,597 1,800
Area harvested (kha) 1,217 1,589 1,775
Yield (t/ha) 1.63 1.49 1.61
Production (kt) 1,987 2,373 2,850
Imports (kt) [b] 13 16 13
Total supply (kt) 2,786 2,754 2,963
Exports (b) 2,179 2,400 2,200
Total Domestic Use (c) 242 254 263
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 365 100 500
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 15 4 20
Average Price (d) 585 1030-1060 765-795

Dry Beans

For 2015-16, exports are forecast to be higher than 2014-15 despite a smaller supply. Increased dry bean exports to the EU and the U.S. are main reason for the increase. Carry-out stocks are also forecast to decrease from 2014-15. The average Canadian dry bean price is expected to decrease due to higher supply in North America. To-date Canadian white pea bean prices are 3% lower, pinto beans are largely unchanged and black beans are nearly 20% below last year.

U.S. total dry bean production (excluding chickpeas) is estimated by the USDA at 1.25 Mt, up 6% from 2014-15. U.S. dry bean production rose sharply for black beans, followed by the small red bean and dark kidney bean types. This is expected to continue to pressure U.S. and Canadian dry bean prices for 2015-16.

For 2016-17, the area seeded is forecast to fall marginally from 2015-16 to 0.11 Mha due to lower potential returns compared to other crops, particularly soybeans and corn. Production is forecast to fall, however, to 0.23 Mt due to lower expected yields. Supply is expected to decrease by 8%, largely due to lower production. Exports are expected to be lower than 2015-16 due to the smaller supply and carry-out stocks are expected to decrease. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to increase due to expectations for lower North American supply.

Dry Beans [a]: February 16, 2016
2014-2015 2015-2016[f] 2016-2017[f]
[a] Crop year is August-July.
[b] Imports and exports exclude products.
[c] Total domestic use = Food and industrial use + Feed waste and dockage + Seed use + Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
[d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
kha: kilohectares
t/ha: tonnes per hectare
kt: kilotonnes
$/t: dollars per tonne
f: forecast, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, February 16, 2016
Source: Statistics Canada and industry consultations.
Area seeded (kha) 126 108 105
Area harvested (kha) 122 107 103
Yield (t/ha) 2.27 2.31 2.23
Production (kt) 278 249 230
Imports (kt) [b] 85 85 85
Total supply (kt) 368 369 340
Exports (b) 307 315 305
Total Domestic Use (c) 26 29 25
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 35 25 10
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 11 7 3
Average Price (d) 830 730-760 740-770

Chickpeas

For 2015-16, exports are forecast to increase from 2014-15, largely due to increased demand from the U.S., Pakistan and India. Carry-out stocks are expected to decrease for the third year in a row. The average price is forecast to rise, due to larger world demand and lower Canadian carry-out stocks.

U.S. chickpea production is estimated by USDA at 0.11 Mt, down from 2014-15, due to lower area and yields. As a result, Canadian chickpea exports to the U.S. are forecast at a record 40 kt in 2014-15.

For 2016-17, the area seeded is forecast to increase from 2015-16, largely due to competitive prices and solid export demand from the previous year. As a result, production is expected to increase to 100 kt. However, supply is expected to fall sharply from last year due to lower carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to be lower than last year with lower available supply and carry-out stocks are expected to decrease. The average price is forecast to be marginally lower as it will be limited by higher expected world supply.

Chickpeas [a]: February 16, 2016
2014-2015 2015-2016[f] 2016-2017[f]
[a] Crop year is August-July.
[b] Imports and exports exclude products.
[c] Total domestic use = Food and industrial use + Feed waste and dockage + Seed use + Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
[d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
kha: kilohectares
t/ha: tonnes per hectare
kt: kilotonnes
$/t: dollars per tonne
f: forecast, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, February 16, 2016
Source: Statistics Canada and industry consultations.
Area seeded (kha) 73 50 55
Area harvested (kha) 70 50 54
Yield (t/ha) 1.87 1.80 1.85
Production (kt) 131 90 100
Imports (kt) [b] 8 8 8
Total supply (kt) 269 223 158
Exports (b) 80 110 75
Total Domestic Use (c) 64 63 63
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 125 50 20
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 87 29 14
Average Price (d) 515 730-760 725-755

Mustard Seed

For 2015-16, exports are forecast to be marginally lower than last year at 120 kt but carry-out stocks are expected to decrease significantly. The U.S. and the EU currently account for nearly 80% of Canada's total exports to-date for Canadian mustard seed. The average price is expected to increase from 2014-15 to record levels due to the tight Canadian supply.

For 2016-17, the area seeded is forecast to increase due to record returns from the previous year. Production is expected to increase by 26% to 155 kt due a rise in seeded area and yields. Supply is forecast to increase only marginally, however, due to lower carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to steady at 120 kt, but carry-out stocks are expected to increase marginally. The average price is expected to decrease compared to 2015-16 but remain historically high.

Mustard Seed [a]: February 16, 2016
2014-2015 2015-2016[f] 2016-2017[f]
[a] Crop year is August-July.
[b] Imports and exports exclude products.
[c] Total domestic use = Food and industrial use + Feed waste and dockage + Seed use + Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
[d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
kha: kilohectares
t/ha: tonnes per hectare
kt: kilotonnes
$/t: dollars per tonne
f: forecast, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, February 16, 2016
Source: Statistics Canada and industry consultations.
Area seeded (kha) 202 140 165
Area harvested (kha) 195 133 160
Yield (t/ha) 1.01 0.93 0.97
Production (kt) 198 123 155
Imports (kt) [b] 1 1 0
Total supply (kt) 209 159 160
Exports (b) 126 120 120
Total Domestic Use (c) 48 34 30
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 35 5 10
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 20 3 7
Average Price (d) 700 1020-1050 870-900

Canary Seed

For 2015-16, exports are forecast to fall below last year due lower demand from Columbia, Mexico and Belgium. The EU and Mexico currently account for 63% of the total Canadian canary seed export market. Carry-out stocks are forecast to tighten. The average price is forecast to rise from the 2014-15 level.

For 2016-17, the area seeded to canary seed is expected to decrease due to lower returns relative to other crops. Production is forecast to decrease due to lower area and yields compared to 2015-16. Supply is expected to decrease to 150 kt. Exports are expected to be lower than 2015-16 and carry-out stocks are expected to remain tight. The average price is forecast to be slightly lower than the 2015-16 level.

Canary Seed [a]: February 16, 2016
2014-2015 2015-2016[f] 2016-2017[f]
[a] Crop year is August-July.
[b] Imports and exports exclude products.
[c] Total domestic use = Food and industrial use + Feed waste and dockage + Seed use + Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
[d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
kha: kilohectares
t/ha: tonnes per hectare
kt: kilotonnes
$/t: dollars per tonne
f: forecast, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, February 16, 2016
Source: Statistics Canada and industry consultations.
Area seeded (kha) 111 132 130
Area harvested (kha) 107 128 125
Yield (t/ha) 1.17 1.17 1.16
Production (kt) 125 149 145
Imports (kt) [b] 0 0 0
Total supply (kt) 185 159 150
Exports (b) 165 145 140
Total Domestic Use (c) 10 9 5
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 10 5 5
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 6 3 3
Average Price (d) 540 585-615 565-595

Sunflower Seed

For 2015-16, exports are expected to be similar to the previous year and carry-out stocks are forecast to rise sharply. The U.S. is Canada's main export market for sunflower seed and accounts for over 95% of Canada's total exports. The average price is expected to fall sharply from 2014-15 due to lower U.S. soyoil prices and a larger U.S. sunflower seed supply.

For the U.S., sunflower seed production is estimated by the USDA to have increased by 32% to 1.3 Mt. About 1.1 Mt of the U.S. sunflower seed crop is estimated to be oilseed types, sharply above last year. U.S. confectionery type production fell marginally this year to 0.25 Mt.

For 2015-16, the global supply of sunflower seed is estimated by the USDA at 43 Mt. This is marginally lower than last year as lower production in the EU has been partially offset by higher production in Russia and Ukraine. As a result, world exports and are expected to decrease by 21% while domestic use is forecast to be unchanged. World carry-out stocks are expected to decrease significantly by 25% to 2.1 Mt, and be supportive for world sunflower seed prices.

For 2016-17, the area seeded is forecast to be relatively unchanged from 2015-16 due to expectations for good returns relative to other crops. Production is forecast to fall to 70 kt due to lower yields, however, supply is expected to increase compared to 2015-16. Exports and carry-out stocks are expected to rise. The average price is forecast to increase from 2015-16 as oil type prices are expected to fall from 2015-16 levels while confectionary type prices increase in Canada.

Sunflower Seed [a]: February 16, 2016
2014-2015 2015-2016[f] 2016-2017[f]
[a] Crop year is August-July.
[b] Imports and exports exclude products.
[c] Total domestic use = Food and industrial use + Feed waste and dockage + Seed use + Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
[d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
kha: kilohectares
t/ha: tonnes per hectare
kt: kilotonnes
$/t: dollars per tonne
f: forecast, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, February 16, 2016
Source: Statistics Canada and industry consultations.
Area seeded (kha) 30 41 40
Area harvested (kha) 29 38 39
Yield (t/ha) 1.89 1.89 1.79
Production (kt) 55 73 70
Imports (kt) [b] 30 27 30
Total supply (kt) 90 110 130
Exports (b) 34 35 45
Total Domestic Use (c) 46 45 45
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 10 30 40
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 13 38 44
Average Price (d) 615 540-570 570-600
Total Pulses and Special Crops [c]: February 16, 2016
2014-2015 2015-2016[f] 2016-2017[f]
[a] Crop year is August-July.
[b] Imports and exports exclude products.
[c] Total domestic use = Food and industrial use + Feed waste and dockage + Seed use + Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
[d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
kha: kilohectares
t/ha: tonnes per hectare
kt: kilotonnes
$/t: dollars per tonne
f: forecast, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, February 16, 2016
Source: Statistics Canada and industry consultations.
Area seeded (kha) 3,418 3,556 3,995
Area harvested (kha) 3,329 3,514 3,931
Yield (t/ha) 1.98 1.78 1.95
Production (kt) 6,584 6,257 7,650
Imports (kt) [b] 168 166 166
Total supply (kt) 8,077 7,687 8,431
Exports (b) 5,982 6,125 5,985
Total Domestic Use (c) 831 947 1,061
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,264 615 1,385
Stocks-to-Use Ratio (%) 19 9 20

Historical Data

Historical principal field crops data are available in spreadsheet format and can be obtained by emailing bulletin@agr.gc.ca. Please specify crops, crop years, and preferred file format in your request.


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Canada: Outlook for Field Crops (PDF Version, 400 KB)

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