Sector Trend Analysis - Bakery Product Trends in the United Kingdom

October 2017

Executive summary

The United Kingdom (UK) is the tenth largest bakery product market in the world, with retail sales valued at US$15.1 billion within 2016. In the European Union (EU), it ranks in fourth place with a 12.8% market share.

Canada's exports in the UK were estimated at US$ 25.37 million, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.90%. This solid growth trend indicates that the British market is an interesting business opportunity for Canadian exporters.

In 2016, two of the top five international bakery product companies had successful sales in the UK (Kellogg Co and Pladis Ltd). In fact, only these two were able to rank in the top five bakery companies, in third and fifth place respectively, along British companies.

The largest category of baked products is baked goods, representing 57.7% of overall sales value in 2016. Breakfast cereals made up 17.6% and sweet biscuits, 24.7%.

The UK has been experiencing political and economic pressure since the Brexit vote was passed on June 23, 2016. Indeed, the British pound could still fluctuate rapidly throughout the preparations for the UK's departure from the EU, which could impact their imports and exports balance. However, the full effects of Brexit are still theoretical, but could explain some drops in consumer confidence in the future.

Introduction

Positioning bakery products in the world
Rank Country Retail sales in US$ (billions) Market share (%) 2012-16 CAGR (%) 2017-21 CAGR (%)
World 437.4 100 4.14 5.06
1 United States 86.6 19.8 1.78 2.96
2 China 33.9 7.7 9.83 6.76
3 Japan 26.6 6.1 1.36 2.29
4 Brazil 25.4 5.8 10.40 6.68
5 Italy 21.4 4.9 −0.46 1.79
6 France 19.5 4.5 0.92 2.77
7 Germany 19.1 4.4 1.35 1.88
8 Mexico 18.2 4.1 3.27 4.32
9 Turkey 17.3 3.9 8.90 12.04
10 United Kingdom 15.1 3.4 0.33 2.64
  • CAGR: compound annual growth rate
  • Source: Euromonitor International, 2017
  • Note: Percentage calculation done by AAFC based on data from Euromonitor International

Overall, the world is experiencing an increase in demand for bakery products with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.14% from 2012 to 2016. Moreover, this trend is expected to hold for the years of 2017 to 2021. The global consumer trend remains a greater health conscience, as health issues such as obesity are more than ever being emphasized through government campaigns.

The newfound craving for American-style bakery products is believed to be due to the emerging popularity of American coffee shop chains, such as Starbucks. Furthermore, in the current era, it is essential for baking product businesses to release enough variety to target every niche audience, from the health conscious to the occasional indulgers.

Positioning bakery products in the European Union
Rank Country Retail sales in US$ (billions) Market share (%) 2012-16 CAGR (%) 2017-21 CAGR (%)
European Union 117.9 100.0 0.56 2.39
1 Italy 21.4 18.2 −0.46 1.79
2 France 19.5 16.5 0.92 2.77
3 Germany 19.1 16.2 1.35 1.88
4 United Kingdom 15.1 12.8 0.33 2.64
5 Spain 6.6 5.6 −1.11 1.82
6 Netherlands 4.2 3.6 0.00 3.25
7 Belgium 4.2 3.6 1.87 3.32
8 Poland 3.7 3.1 0.00 2.53
9 Austria 3.6 3.1 2.20 1.97
10 Romania 2.8 2.4 0.91 3.39
  • CAGR: compound annual growth rate
  • Source: Euromonitor International, 2017
  • Note: Percentage calculation done by AAFC based on data from Euromonitor International

Although many EU countries feature in the worldwide top ten, the overall CAGR for the EU (0.56%) is nowhere near that of the world (4.14%). This is due to opposing preoccupations and different market dynamics. Europe's consumers differ a lot from country to country, however British and European consumers both craved the same thing in 2016: novelty and foreign flavours. The global health awareness also reached EU consumers. These movements lead to the slowing of many products that were deemed out of style or unaligned with the current health and wellness (HW) trends, which will be addressed in the subsector analysis.

Top ten importers of bakery products* worldwide in 2016, US$
Country Imports
US$ (millions)
Top Suppliers and Market Share #1 Top Suppliers and Market Share #2 Top Suppliers and Market Share #3 Canada's share
United States 5,173.15 Canada 46.6% Mexico 22.3% Italy 3.23% 46.6%
United Kingdom 2,720.36 Germany 19.4% France 18.5% Belgium 11.2% 0.93%
France 2,538.72 Belgium 23.3% Germany 22.5% Italy 13.5% 0.05%
Germany 2,413.40 Poland 16.2% Netherlands 15.6% France 13.0% 0.01%
Canada 1,954.36 United States 80.3% Mexico 4.16% United Kingdom 2.15% -
Belgium 1,288.88 France 29.3% Netherlands 24.1% Germany 17.1% 0.14%
Italy 1,082.38 Germany 27.4% France 18.2% Austria 12.0% 0.00%
Netherlands 1,079.10 Belgium 36.8% Germany 28.1% France 7.11% 0.04%
Spain 889.29 Germany 23.2% France 20.4% Italy 14.4% 0.00%
China 499.21 Indonesia 22.1% Hong Kong 11.1% Malaysia 10.5% 0.34%
  • *Note: For the purposes of this report, “bakery products” was defined using the following HS codes: 1904, 1905
  • Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2017

In 2016, Canada exported US$2.273 billion worth of bakery products to the world, while US$2.199 billion went to the United States. A small percentage was exported to the United Kingdom (0.99%), representing US$22.5 million. However, the potential for Canadian exporters in the UK is favourable, as the country has been increasingly importing from Canada with a CAGR of 9.9%, which is a faster growth than the UK global import growth (1.54%).

Bakery products* export gap, 2015 in US$ Millions
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CAGR %
UK imports from the World 2,560 2,697 2,898 2,774 2,720 1.5
UK imports from Canada 17.39 24.64 32.89 28.74 25.37 9.9
Gross export gap 2,543 2,672 2,865 2,745 2,695 1.5
  • *Note: For the purposes of this report, “bakery products” was defined using the following HS codes: 1904, 1905
  • Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2017
  • CAGR: compound annual growth rate

Subsector analysis

Baked goods

Baked goods is the central category of all three bakery products, leading with more than half of the retail sales market share. It has been experiencing a slight decline of 0.86% over the past five years, with retail sales hovering at US$8.5 billion in 2016 versus US$8.8 billion in 2012. This is likely due to higher consumer health awareness and UK government's sensitization programs as a response to high obesity rates, which has driven people away from sweets and carbohydrate-rich foods.

Historic retail volume in tonnes (thousands) of baked goods categories in the UK
Baked goods 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012-16 CAGR %
Total 3,261.3 3,217.0 3,131.1 3,104.7 3,098.5 -1.27
Bread 2,503.1 2,454.1 2,372.8 2,331.1 2,311.3 −1.97
Cakes 539.1 542.4 535.4 547.8 559.8 0.95
Pastries 133.3 136.4 140.3 142.2 143.3 1.82
Dessert Mixes 19.3 18.9 18.8 18.6 18.3 −1.32
Frozen baked goods 66.5 65.2 63.8 65.1 65.9 −0.23
  • Source: Euromonitor International, 2017
  • Note: Percentage calculation done by AAFC based on data from Euromonitor International
Historic retail volume in tonnes (thousands) of bread categories in the UK
Bread 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012-16 CAGR %
Total 2,503.1 2,454.1 2,372.8 2,331.1 2,311.3 −1.97
Total Flat Bread 66.6 70.7 77.3 85.1 93.7 8.91
Flat Bread packaged 63.2 67.2 73.8 81.6 90.1 9.27
Flat Bread Unpackaged 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 0.73
Total Leavened bread 2,436.5 2,383.4 2,295.6 2,246.0 2,217.6 -2.33
Leavened bread Packaged 1,948.9 1,894.0 1,801.0 1,744.2 1,702.3 −3.33
Leavened bread Unpackaged 487.6 489.5 494.6 501.8 515.3 1.39
  • Source: Euromonitor International, 2017
  • Note: Percentage calculation done by AAFC based on data from Euromonitor International
Historic retail volume in tonnes (thousands) of cake categories in the UK
Cakes 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012-16 CAGR %
Total 539.1 542.4 535.4 547.8 559.8 0.95
Packaged 315.7 316.5 307.6 317.8 328.1 0.97
Unpackaged 223.4 225.9 227.7 230.0 231.7 0.92
  • Source: Euromonitor International, 2017
  • Note: Percentage calculation done by AAFC based on data from Euromonitor International
Historic retail volume in tonnes (thousands) of pastry categories in the UK
Pastries 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012-16 CAGR %
Total 133.3 136.4 140.3 142.2 143.3 1.82
Packaged 99.2 101.1 103.9 104.4 103.8 1.14
Unpackaged 34.1 35.3 36.4 37.8 39.5 3.74
  • Source: Euromonitor International, 2017
  • Note: Percentage calculation done by AAFC based on data from Euromonitor International
Forecast retail volume in tonnes (thousands) of baked goods categories in the UK
Baked goods 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017-21 CAGR %
Total 3,083.4 3,074.0 3,076.7 3,079.2 3,084.6 0.01
Bread 2,284.6 2,266.0 2,260.7 2,256.8 2,257.1 −0.30
Cakes 570.5 579.2 587.1 593.2 598.3 1.20
Pastries 143.6 143.6 143.5 143.5 143.2 −0.07
Dessert Mixes 18.1 18.0 17.9 17.9 17.9 −0.28
Frozen baked goods 66.6 67.1 67.6 67.9 68.1 0.56
  • Source: Euromonitor International, 2017
  • Note: Percentage calculation done by AAFC based on data from Euromonitor International
Forecast retail volume in tonnes (thousands) of bread categories in the UK
Bread 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017-21 CAGR %
Total 2,284.6 2,266.0 2,260.7 2,256.8 2,257.1 −0.30
Total Flat Bread 100.8 106.1 110.5 114.1 116.2 3.62
Flat Bread packaged 97.2 102.4 106.8 110.5 112.5 3.72
Flat Bread Unpackaged 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 0.69
Total Leavened bread 2,183.8 2,160.0 2,150.2 2,142.7 2,140.9 -0.49
Leavened bread Packaged 1,656.6 1,619.1 1,592.5 1,564.9 1,543.8 −1.75
Leavened bread Unpackaged 527.2 540.8 557.7 577.7 597.1 3.16
  • Source: Euromonitor International, 2017
  • Note: Percentage calculation done by AAFC based on data from Euromonitor International
Forecast retail volume in tonnes (thousands) of cake categories in the UK
Cakes 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017-21 CAGR %
Total 570.5 579.2 587.1 593.2 598.3 1.20
Packaged 335.7 341.3 346.2 350.0 353.3 1.29
Unpackaged 234.8 237.9 241.0 243.2 244.9 1.06
  • Source: Euromonitor International, 2017
  • Note: Percentage calculation done by AAFC based on data from Euromonitor International
Forecast retail volume in tonnes (thousands) of pastry categories in the UK
Pastries 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017-21 CAGR %
Total 143.6 143.6 143.5 143.5 143.2 −0.07
Packaged 102.5 101.1 99.6 98.4 97.1 −1.34
Unpackaged 41.1 42.6 43.8 45.0 46.1 2.91
  • Source: Euromonitor International, 2017
  • Note: Percentage calculation done by AAFC based on data from Euromonitor International

Globalisation and exposure to non-traditional cuisine has been inciting the British into trying a multitude of ethnic breads like pitas, naans, and tortillas instead of traditional foods like packaged leavened bread. In fact, flat packaged bread has been massively growing in popularity with a 9.27% CAGR, thanks to its fresh, trendy and health-friendly appeal.

On the other hand, leavened bread, which is perceived as being old-fashioned, has dropped 3.33% in sales volume.

Top five British baked goods companies and market shares retail value sales % breakdown
Companies 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Premier Foods Plc 14.6 13.6 12.9 11.9 11.6
Warburtons Ltd 11.9 12.1 11.4 11.2 10.9
Associated British Foods Plc 7.7 7.9 7.7 6.6 6.0
Mondelez International Inc 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.5
Pladis Ltd - - - - 1.0
Artisanal 23.3 24.4 26.1 27.4 28.2
Private label 23.9 24.2 24.8 24.9 24.7
  • -: not available
  • Source: Euromonitor International, 2017

Artisanal baked goods are growing in demand due to an increasing awareness of product quality, capitalising 28.2% of retail sales market shares. British consumers are looking for authentic, high-quality and unknown flavours. Likewise, there is a battle of quality perceptions between artisanal and retailer products, the latter fighting back with on-site bakery sections. Among the top five companies, only Mondelez International and Pladis are multinationals, which shows the British value locality over label.

In fact, there is growing competition between multinationals and artisanal sellers, in addition to private labels, as both of the artisanal and private label sectors are gaining a significant amount of market shares. The main strategy used by multinationals in 2016 was strong marketing campaigns revolved around health and wellness, as well as introducing creative flavours. For example, Warburton's leveraged their ranking through high-profile advertising campaigns, while Premier Foods exploited the snacking trend and released snack-sized versions of their packaged cakes.

Breakfast cereals

The popularisation of the on-the-go lifestyle has been negatively affecting this category's demand, as consumers no longer depend on cereal for breakfast, making it the smallest sector in terms of sales value. In fact, in 2012, retail sales hit US$ 2.5 billion whereas in 2016, they reached US$ 2.6 billion, scoring a 2012-2016 retail sales CAGR of 0.97%. One reason behind this slow growth is the recent popularity of discounters, which force prices down for retailers.

Historic retail volume in tonnes (thousands) of breakfast cereal categories in the UK
Breakfast cereals 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012-16 CAGR %
Total 526.3 527.6 531.5 538.6 547.5 0.99
Hot cereals 77.9 84.9 92.5 99.7 106.6 8.16
Ready-to-eat cereals 448.5 442.7 439.0 438.9 440.9 −0.43
  • Source: Euromonitor International, 2017
  • Note: Percentage calculation done by AAFC based on data from Euromonitor International
Historic retail volume in tonnes (thousands) of ready-to-eat cereal categories in the UK
Ready-to-eat cereals 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012-16 CAGR %
Total 448.5 442.7 439.0 438.9 440.9 −0.43
Children's breakfast cereals 112.8 110.5 109.1 110.3 111.3 −0.33
Family breakfast cereals 335.7 332.2 329.9 328.7 329.6 −0.46
  • Source: Euromonitor International, 2017
  • Note: Percentage calculation done by AAFC based on data from Euromonitor International
Historic retail volume in tonnes (thousands) of family breakfast cereal categories in the UK
Family breakfast cereals 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012-16 CAGR %
Total 335.7 332.2 329.9 328.7 329.6 −0.46
Flakes 196.4 192.4 189.3 187.1 186.3 −1.31
Muesli and granola 38.6 40.1 42.0 44.1 47.1 5.10
Other ready-to-eat cereals 100.7 99.7 98.6 97.4 96.3 −1.11
  • Source: Euromonitor International, 2017
  • Note: Percentage calculation done by AAFC based on data from Euromonitor International

The effects of the modern busy lifestyle are felt by the relatively low retail volume CAGR of 0.99%. Despite this result, hot cereals, muesli and granola were the big winners of this category with CAGRs of 8.16% and 5.10%, respectively. These products capitalized on the recent health and wellness (HW) trends in an impressive way. In fact, as parents grow weary of sugary cereals and are turning to more natural and earthy options like oatmeal and muesli for their children, cereal product producers are trying to recreate the same health appeal by cutting back sugar contents or launching high protein products.

Forecast retail volume in tonnes (thousands) of breakfast cereal categories in the UK
Breakfast cereals 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017-21 CAGR %
Total 555.4 562.3 568.5 576.4 585.1 1.31
Hot cereals 113.0 118.8 124.6 131.5 139.2 5.35
Ready-to-eat cereals 442.4 443.5 444.0 444.8 445.8 0.19
  • Source: Euromonitor International, 2017
  • Note: Percentage calculation done by AAFC based on data from Euromonitor International
Forecast retail volume in tonnes (thousands) of ready-to-eat cereal categories in the UK
Ready-to-eat cereals 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017-21 CAGR %
Total 442.4 443.5 444.0 444.8 445.8 0.19
Children's breakfast cereals 112.5 113.3 113.6 114.1 114.6 0.46
Family breakfast cereals 329.9 330.2 330.4 330.7 331.2 0.10
  • Source: Euromonitor International, 2017
  • Note: Percentage calculation done by AAFC based on data from Euromonitor International
Forecast retail volume in tonnes (thousands) of family breakfast cereal categories in the UK
Family breakfast cereals 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017-21 CAGR %
Total 329.9 330.2 330.4 330.7 331.2 0.10
Flakes 185.2 184.4 183.3 182.4 181.7 −0.48
Muesli and granola 49.5 51.6 53.4 55.0 56.5 3.36
Other ready-to-eat cereals 95.2 94.2 93.7 93.3 93.1 −0.56
  • Source: Euromonitor International, 2017
  • Note: Percentage calculation done by AAFC based on data from Euromonitor International

In the next years, the demand for less processed and premium products is expected to keep rising as an effect of the HW trend. This will maintain the high growth of muesli and granola products in addition to that of hot cereals. Some of the other cereal types are expected to recover from their 2012 to 2016 negative growths, as companies adjust to the current health and wellness consumption trends.

Top five British breakfast cereals companies and market shares retail value sales % breakdown
Companies 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Kellogg Co 29.8 29.2 28.2 27.2 25.8
Bright Food (Group) Co Ltd 13.5 13.1 12.9 13.0 13.4
Cereal Partners Worldwide SA 13.0 13.1 13.1 12.9 12.8
PepsiCo Inc. 6.9 8.0 8.7 9.3 9.9
Associated British Foods Plc 3.5 3.6 5.9 6.2 6.6
Private label 22.9 23.3 23.6 23.7 23.7
Source: Euromonitor International, 2017

Kellogg remained the main player in the cereals category with a 25.8% market share in 2016, despite the 4% loss in market shares due to the decline in RTE cereal. Also, PepsiCo has been gaining territory thanks to its hot cereals selection, with a 3% increase in market shares from 2012 to 2016. Among the top five, Associated British Foods Plc was the only domestic company, while the other four were multinationals.

Biscuits and snacks

The biscuits and snack category is the second-largest and the most rapidly growing category, with US$ 4.0 billion in retail sales in 2016 and CAGR of 2.97%. Energy bars and fruit and nut bars saw the largest increase in volume sales, as the products successfully aligned themselves as legitimate HW and on-the-run goods. Sweet biscuits haven't performed as well as expected, partly due to a critical flooding that affected the main biscuit supplier, United Biscuits (Euromonitor, 2017). The evolving health and wellness trend also threatens the biscuit industry, as British consumers are concerned about their consumption of fat and sugar. Companies will have to stay attuned and innovate according to consumer preoccupations to stay competitive and capitalize on this sector.

Historic retail volume in tonnes (thousands) of biscuits and snacks categories in the UK
Biscuits and snacks 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012-16 CAGR %
Total 515.9 535.2 540.3 557.1 564.0 2.3
Fruit snacks 19.0 20.4 21.8 23.0 23.9 5.9
Snack bars 41.6 40.7 41.3 42.9 44.9 1.9
Sweet biscuits 455.3 474.1 477.1 491.1 495.1 2.1
  • Source: Euromonitor International, 2017
  • Note: Percentage calculation done by AAFC based on data from Euromonitor International
Historic retail volume in tonnes (thousands) of fruit snack categories in the UK
Fruit snacks 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012-16 CAGR %
Total 19.0 20.4 21.8 23.0 23.9 5.9
Dried fruit 16.6 17.6 18.3 19.1 19.9 4.6
Processed fruit snacks 2.4 2.9 3.5 3.9 4.1 14.3
  • Source: Euromonitor International, 2017
  • Note: Percentage calculation done by AAFC based on data from Euromonitor International
Historic retail volume in tonnes (thousands) of snack bar categories in the UK
Snack bars 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012-16 CAGR %
Total 41.6 40.7 41.3 42.9 44.9 1.9
Cereal bars 30.9 29.3 28.2 28.3 28.4 −2.1
Energy bars 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.2 25.0
Fruit and nut bars 4.4 5.3 6.5 7.5 8.8 18.9
Other snack bars 5.5 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.5 0.0
  • Source: Euromonitor International, 2017
  • Note: Percentage calculation done by AAFC based on data from Euromonitor International
Historic retail volume in tonnes (thousands) of sweet biscuit categories in the UK
Sweet biscuits 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012-16 CAGR %
Total 455.3 474.1 477.1 491.1 495.1 2.1
Chocolate coated biscuits 183.3 181.5 175.9 179.2 177.0 −0.9
Cookies 33.6 34.1 34.8 35.9 36.6 2.2
Filled biscuits 100.3 98.9 96.3 95.4 94.5 −1.5
Plain biscuits 130.4 151.9 162.2 172.9 179.2 8.3
Wafers 7.7 7.7 7.9 7.8 7.8 0.3
  • Source: Euromonitor International, 2017
  • Note: Percentage calculation done by AAFC based on data from Euromonitor International

It is interesting to compare the growth of processed fruit snacks and fruit and nut bar. Processed fruit saw an increase in sales volume of 14.33%, where fruit and nut bars grew 18.92%. Both products grew in a substantial way due to their strong appeal to health-conscious consumers. In fact, they are in direct competition. However, the fruit and nut bar has the advantage of extra protein, and is thus a more inclusive product. Energy bars have the same inclusive nature, as they can touch to every health claim from high-protein to high-fiber, while being vegan, gluten-free or organic. They can also pertain to athletes, working adults or young kids.

Forecast retail volume in tonnes (thousands) of biscuits and snacks categories in the UK
Biscuits and snacks 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017-21 CAGR %
Total 565.6 563.7 562.5 562.1 561.9 -0.16
Fruit snacks 24.6 25.1 25.6 26.0 26.3 1.68
Snack bars 46.4 47.4 48.2 48.8 49.2 1.48
Sweet biscuits 494.6 491.2 488.7 487.3 486.4 −0.42
  • Source: Euromonitor International, 2017
  • Note: Percentage calculation done by AAFC based on data from Euromonitor International
Forecast retail volume in tonnes (thousands) of fruit snack categories in the UK
Fruit snacks 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017-21 CAGR %
Total 24.6 25.1 25.6 26.0 26.3 1.68
Dried fruit 20.5 20.9 21.2 21.6 21.8 1.55
Processed fruit snacks 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 2.35
  • Source: Euromonitor International, 2017
  • Note: Percentage calculation done by AAFC based on data from Euromonitor International
Forecast retail volume in tonnes (thousands) of snack bar categories in the UK
Snack bars 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017-21 CAGR %
Total 46.4 47.4 48.2 48.8 49.2 1.48
Cereal bars 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 0.17
Energy bars 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.3 6.14
Fruit and nut bars 9.7 10.3 10.8 11.1 11.2 3.66
Other snack bars 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 1.74
  • Source: Euromonitor International, 2017
  • Note: Percentage calculation done by AAFC based on data from Euromonitor International
Forecast retail volume in tonnes (thousands) of sweet biscuit categories in the UK
Sweet biscuits 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017-21 CAGR %
Total 494.6 491.2 488.7 487.3 486.4 −0.42
Chocolate coated biscuits 171.5 164.1 157.8 152.5 147.8 −3.65
Cookies 37.5 38.3 39.2 40.2 41.1 2.32
Filled biscuits 93.5 92.4 91.6 90.9 90.2 −0.89
Plain biscuits 184.4 188.7 192.5 196.2 199.7 2.01
Wafers 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.6 −0.33
  • Source: Euromonitor International, 2017
  • Note: Percentage calculation done by AAFC based on data from Euromonitor International
Top five British biscuits and snacks companies and market shares retail value sales % breakdown
Companies 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Pladis Ltd - - - - 17.1
Mondelez International Inc 7.9 8.9 8.7 8.5 8.3
Kellogg Co 5.5 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.4
Whitworth Bros Ltd 3.9 4.0 3.9 4.1 4.2
Burton's Foods Ltd 3.8 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.7
Private label 25.3 25.1 25.4 25.5 25.5
  • -: not available
  • Source: Euromonitor International, 2017
  • Note: Percentage calculation done by AAFC based on data from Euromonitor International

While two multinationals figure among the top five (Mondelez International and Kellogg), it is Pladis Ltd (United Biscuits), a domestic company, that held the most market shares in 2016. Indeed, the company's strength in that year was their heavy focus on marketing. The best bet for biscuits companies that want to have successful sales in the UK is to align their products with HW trends while keeping prices affordable, as these items have traditionally been available at low cost.

New product launch analysis

According to the Mintel Global New Products Database (GNPD), 1787 products were launched in the baked products market in 2016. The most popular launch type was “New Variety” with 799 products, followed by “New Packaging” (414), “New Product” (312), “Relaunch” (227) and “New Formulation” with 35 goods. Within the new products, the top claims were vegetarian, ethical - environmentally friendly package, no additives/preservatives, social media, and low/no/reduced trans-fat. The vegetarian claim was used in 73.1% of new launches in 2016.

White sugar, salt and wheat flour were used in 68.9%, 65.1% and 64.0% of this year's launches. In the last year, plum, pink salt and cocoa beans saw the largest growth, with each evaluated at 1300%, 1200% and 900% in all bakery product categories. This is given that in the previous year only one product of each ingredient was released (Mintel, 2017).

While the total launches origins cover many countries, it is noticed that the UK's share is largely dominant (40.0%) which explains the dominance of domestic companies in all three categories. The following foreign companies were France (3.19%), Italy (2.80%), Germany (1.73%) and the Netherlands (1.34%).

Over the past five years, the leading type of launch was “New Variety”, accumulating 3,918 products and representing 45.6% of the total 5-year sample. An explanation for this may be processors' desire to keep up with consumer trends by modifying products that are familiar in ways that align with current health and wellness concerns, such as reducing sugar or fat consumption.

Total yearly launch counts
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total 1,847 1,670 1,401 1,896 1,787
Source: Mintel Global New Product Database, 2017
Top five claims - yearly launch counts
Claims 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Vegetarian 997 1,115 952 1,377 1,307
Ethical - environmentally friendly package 503 630 531 849 825
No additives/preservatives 402 492 381 529 456
Social media 189 176 162 272 267
Low/no/reduced trans-fat 72 136 193 312 345
Source: Mintel Global New Product Database, 2017
Top five ingredients - yearly launch counts
Ingredients 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
White sugar 807 1,113 965 1,383 1,232
Salt 837 983 942 1,263 1,163
Wheat flour 830 1,016 881 1,239 1,143
Emulsifiers 553 735 665 958 842
Food acids 564 661 602 908 825
Source: Mintel Global New Product Database, 2017
Top five packaging - yearly launch counts
Packaging 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Flexible 1,310 1,151 990 1,346 1,251
Carton 135 121 86 153 161
Tub 62 89 60 76 73
Clam-pack 75 42 36 47 41
Flexible sachet 62 29 26 62 46
Source: Mintel Global New Product Database, 2017
Top five flavour components - yearly launch counts
Components 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Unflavoured/plain 533 455 386 478 439
Chocolate 271 222 174 282 241
Chocolate (Milk) 82 104 77 90 98
Butter 52 47 54 82 103
Fruit 49 65 44 57 47
Source: Mintel Global New Product Database, 2017

New product examples

Sweet and Tasty Oat Bread
Company Brand Country Store Name Store Type Product source Launch Type Price in US Dollars
Polarbröd Polarbröd UK Ocado Internet/Mail Order Shopper New Product $3.91

Polarbröd Sweet & Tasty Oat Bread, made with Polfärskt/Polarmetoden method, is rich in whole grain and a source of fibre. The product, which is free from milk, lactose, additives and preservatives, retails in a 400g pack containing two units.


Scrummy Biscuits with Wispa Filling
Company Brand Country Store Name Store Type Product source Launch Type Price in US Dollars
Mondelez Cadbury Wispa Ireland Dunnes Department Store Shopper New Packaging $2.94

Cadbury Wispa Scrummy Biscuits with Wispa Filling have been repackaged in an updated 124g on-the-go pack, containing four sachets with two biscuits each. The biscuits are filled and coated with velvety Wispa chocolate and are suitable for vegetarians. The product is said to be ideal for lunchboxes or handbags.


Brownie Mini Muffins
Company Brand Store Name Store Type Product source Launch Type Price in US Dollars
Waitrose Waitrose Party Waitrose Supermarket Shopper New Variety/Range Extension $7.54

Waitrose Party Brownie Mini Muffins are now available. This vegetarian product comprises dark chocolate brownies with a rich gooey centre studded with white chocolate pieces. It is suitable for freezing, can be microwaved, cooks in 12 minutes, and retails in a recyclable 360g pack.

Lemon Drizzle Squares
Company Brand Country of Manufacture Import Status Store Name Store Type Product source Launch Type Price in US Dollars
General Mills Fibre One 90 Calorie Spain Imported product Tesco Extra Mass Merchandise/Hypermarket Shopper New Product $4.36

Fibre One 90 Calorie Lemon Drizzle Squares contain only 90 calories per square. These convenient, high fibre baked snacks are low in fat and retail in a 120g pack containing 5 x 24g units.


Bhaji Bread
Company Brand Store Name Store Type Product source Launch Type Price in US Dollars
Asda Asda Baker's Selection Asda Mass Merchandise/Hypermarket Shopper New Product $2.11

Asda Baker's Selection Bhaji Bread retails in a pack containing one unit.

Wafer Rolls with Hazelnut and Cocoa Cream
Company Brand Country of Manufacture Imported product Store Name Store Type Product source Launch Type Price in US Dollars
Papadopoulos Papadopoulos Caprice Greece Imported product Waitrose Supermarket Shopper New Product $4.53

Papadopoulos Caprice Wafer Rolls with Hazelnut and Cocoa Cream can be enjoyed on-the-go or frozen for a cool treat. The product retails in a 250g pack featuring the Facebook logo.

Opportunities for Canada

The Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) will help provide opportunities for Canadian producers, processors and exporters to reach the EU's 510 million consumers.

CETA can support you by:

Find more details:
CETA for agri-food exporters

For more information

International Trade Commissioners can provide Canadian industry with on-the-ground expertise regarding market potential, current conditions and local business contacts, and are an excellent point of contact for export advice.

For additional intelligence on this and other markets, the complete library of Global Analysis reports can be found on the International Market Intelligence page, arranged by region:

For additional information on ANUGA 2017, please contact:

Related reports

Resources

Sector Trend Analysis - Bakery Product Trends in the UK - Global Analysis Report

Prepared by: Amina Qacha, Market Analyst (Co-op student)

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