Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops,
2019-06-14

Canada: Outlook for Field Crops (PDF Version, 391 KB)

Historical Data

This report is an update of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's (AAFC) May outlook report for the 2018-19 crop year and provides a preliminary look at the upcoming 2019-20 crop year. For most crops in Canada, the crop year starts on August 1 and ends on July 31, although for corn and soybeans, the crop year starts on September 1 and ends on August 31.

For 2018-19, total exports of all field crops are expected to increase slightly from the previous crop year to 51.5 million tonnes (Mt) of which nearly 90 percent is grains and oilseeds (G&O) and 10 percent is pulses and special crops (P&SC). From a disposition point of view, exports, domestic use and carry-out stocks are expected to represent about 46, 41 and 13 percent of total supply, respectively. For G&O, carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease marginally to 13.7 Mt, as significantly lower carry-out stocks of wheat and coarse grains are more than offset by the major increase in carry-out stocks of oilseeds. For P&SC carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease due to lower carry-out stocks of peas and lentils. In general, abundant world supplies of grain have pressured world prices but the weak Canadian dollar provides strong support to prices in Canada. In addition, Canada/China trade issues are expected to continue to create uncertainty for the Canadian markets.

For 2019-20, the estimates for areas seeded are based on Statistics Canada's April 24 report on Seeding Intentions, which indicated that the total area seeded to field crops in Canada is expected to be slightly lower than 2018-19. The areas seeded to grains are expected to increase but will be more-than offset by the decrease in the area seeded to oilseeds. Seeding is finished in Western Canada but some corn and soybeans remains to be seeded in Eastern Canada. AAFC's forecasts for areas harvested are based on historical trends. For all crops, average or trend yields have been assumed since the growing season is just beginning and there will be a high degree of variability in temperature/moisture conditions before harvest. However, AAFC is currently forecasting a two percent increase in total production while supply remains fairly flat, due to the significant decrease in imports. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by about 13% due to the increase in carry-out stocks of wheat and canola. World grain prices will continue to be pressured by an abundant supply of grain at the global level. However, the impact on grain prices in Canada will continue to be partly mitigated by the low value of the Canadian dollar.

Total Grains and Oilseeds: June 14, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 27,149 27,820 27,808
Area harvested (kha) 26,337 26,861 26,768
Yield (t/ha) 3.26 3.20 3.28
Production (kt) 85,794 86,002 87,888
Imports (kt) 2,504 3,770 1,962
Total supply (kt) 102,577 103,522 103,554
Exports (kt) 45,408 45,850 44,710
Total Domestic Use (kt) 43,420 43,967 43,119
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 13,750 13,705 15,725
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecasts by AAFC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Total Pulses and Special Crops: June 14, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 3,927 3,629 3,567
Area harvested (kha) 3,897 3,552 3,505
Yield (t/ha) 1.90 1.88 1.96
Production (kt) 7,419 6,674 6,872
Imports (kt) 211 212 160
Total supply (kt) 8,373 8,556 8,499
Exports (kt) 5,365 5,611 5,510
Total Domestic Use (kt) 1,337 1,478 1,604
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,670 1,467 1,385
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecasts by AAFC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
All Principal Field Crops: June 14, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 31,076 31,449 31,375
Area harvested (kha) 30,233 30,413 30,273
Yield (t/ha) 3.08 3.05 3.13
Production (kt) 93,213 92,676 94,760
Imports (kt) 2,715 3,982 2,122
Total supply (kt) 110,950 112,078 112,053
Exports (kt) 50,773 51,461 50,220
Total Domestic Use (kt) 44,757 45,445 44,723
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 15,420 15,172 17,110
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecasts by AAFC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat

Durum

For 2018-19, Canadian durum supply increased by 6% from 2017-18 to 7.18 million tonnes (Mt). Exports are forecast to increase by 1% to 4.4 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise by 19% to 1.7 Mt, 20% higher than the past five year average of 1.42 Mt. The forecast for exports was raised by 0.2 Mt and the forecast for carry-out stocks was reduced by 0.2 Mt from the May report.

World durum production increased by 1.7 Mt from 2017-18 to 38.1 Mt, according to the International Grains Council (IGC). Supply rose by 0.9 Mt to 47.3 Mt. Use is expected to increase by 0.5 Mt to 37.7 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by 0.4 Mt to 9.6 Mt. Durum production in the US increased to 2.1 Mt from 1.49 Mt.

The average crop year producer price for durum in Canada is forecast to fall from 2017-18 due to higher world, Canadian and US supply.

For 2019-20, the area seeded to durum is expected to decrease by 19% from 2018-19, according to Statistics Canada's survey. Saskatchewan is expected to account for 84% of the seeded area and Alberta for 16%.

Production is forecast to decrease by 10% to 5.15 Mt, as the lower area is partly offset by a return to average yields from the below average yields of 2018-19. Supply is expected to decrease by 4%, as the lower production is partly offset by higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to increase by 7% to 4.7 Mt due to stronger demand resulting from a decrease in world production. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 24% to 1.3 Mt, 0.2 Mt lower than in the May report.

World durum production is forecast by IGC to fall by 1.5 Mt from 2018-19 to 36.6 Mt, while supply decreases by 1.1 Mt to 46.2 Mt. Use is expected to decrease by 0.1 Mt to 37.6 Mt, as higher food use is more than offset by lower feed use. Carry out stocks are forecast to fall by 1 Mt to 8.6 Mt, the lowest since 2014-15. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is estimating a 31% drop from 2018-19 for US durum seeded area. This would result in a 0.6 Mt fall in production to 1.5 Mt, assuming average yields.

The average Canadian crop year producer price for durum is forecast to rise from 2018-19 due to lower world, Canadian and US supply and stronger export demand.

Durum [a]: June 14, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 2,106 2,503 2,032
Area harvested (kha) 2,088 2,456 1,990
Yield (t/ha) 2.38 2.34 2.59
Production (kt) 4,962 5,745 5,150
Imports (kt) [b] 8 15 15
Total supply (kt) 6,798 7,185 6,865
Exports (kt) [c] 4,342 4,400 4,700
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 201 205 205
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 587 683 444
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 1,030 1,085 865
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,426 1,700 1,300
Average Price ($/t) [g] 265 225-235 230-260
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products, while excluding oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Total number excludes flaxseed food and industrial use due to data confidentiality.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Crop year average prices: Wheat (No. 1 Canada Western Hard Red spring wheat {CWRS}, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No.1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices and are not comparable to CWB pool returns for previous years.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019, area, yield and production are from the STC survey but imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat (excluding durum)

For 2018-19, Canadian wheat supply rose by 2% from 2017-18 to 30.6 Mt. Exports are forecast to rise by 8% to 19 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 17% to 3.7 Mt, 35% lower than the past five year average of 5.72 Mt and the lowest since 2007-08. The exports forecast was raised by 0.2 Mt and the carry-out stocks forecast reduced by 0.2 Mt from the May report.

World all wheat (including durum) production decreased by 30 Mt to 732 Mt, according to USDA. Supply fell by 11 Mt to 1,013 Mt. Total use is expected to fall by 7 Mt to 736 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 4 Mt to 277 Mt. Excluding China, world all wheat stocks are expected to fall by 13 Mt to 137 Mt.

In the US, all wheat production increased by 4 Mt to 51.3 Mt, according to USDA. Supply rose by 1.2 Mt to 85 Mt. Domestic use is estimated to fall by 0.2 Mt and exports are expected to increase by 1.3 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise by 0.1 Mt to 30 Mt.

The average crop year producer prices for wheat in Canada for 2018-19 are forecast to increase from 2017-18, because of the lower world supply and strong export demand.

For 2019-20, the area seeded to wheat in Canada is expected to increase by 11% from 2018-19, according to Statistics Canada. Although the winter wheat area seeded last fall decreased by 4%, there was less damage during the winter, resulting in a 2% increase for the winter wheat area remaining in the spring. The spring wheat area is expected to increase by 12%.

Expected seeded area by class of wheat, with 2018-19 area in brackets: winter (hard red, soft red and soft white) 545 thousand hectares (Kha) (565); Canada Western Red Spring (CWRS), premium quality hard wheat, 3,925 Kha (5,963); Canada Northern Hard Red Spring (CNHR) 2,978 Kha (302); Canada Prairie Spring (CPS) 567 Kha (377); soft white spring (CWSWS) 126 Kha (119), other western spring wheat 104 Kha (121), eastern spring wheat, mainly hard red spring (CERS), 146 Kha (124).

Saskatchewan is expected to account for 44% of the wheat area, Alberta 33%, Manitoba 16%, Ontario 5%, Quebec 1%, with the remaining 1% in the Maritimes and BC.

Production is projected to rise by 10% to 28.7 Mt. Supply is forecast to increase by 6%, as lower carry-in stocks partly offset the increase in production. Exports are forecast to be unchanged at 19 Mt. Although Canada will have more wheat to export, there will be more competition from other exporters because of higher production, which is expected to limit Canadian exports. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by 46% to 5.4 Mt, 0.2 Mt lower than in the May report.

World all wheat (including durum) production is forecast to increase by 49 Mt to 781 Mt, while the supply increases by 45 Mt to 1,057 Mt, according to USDA. Total use is expected to increase by 27 Mt to 763 Mt. Carry out stocks are forecast to rise by 17 Mt to 294 Mt. Excluding China, world all wheat stocks are expected to increase by 11 Mt to 148 Mt.

US all wheat production is forecast to rise by 0.5 Mt from 2018-19 to 51.8 Mt, according to USDA. Supply is expected to increase by 0.6 Mt to 85.6 Mt due to higher carry-in stocks. Domestic use is forecast to increase by 1.8 Mt, while exports decrease by 1.4 Mt. Carry out stocks are forecast to decrease by 0.8 Mt to 29.2 Mt.

Average Canadian producer prices for wheat for the crop year are forecast to fall from 2018-19 because of the higher world, US and Canadian supply.

Wheat Except Durum [a]: June 14, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 7,020 7,570 8,390
Area harvested (kha) 6,895 7,425 8,225
Yield 3.63 3.50 3.49
Production (kt) 25,022 26,024 28,700
Imports (b) 75 70 75
Total supply (kt) 30,125 30,578 32,475
Exports (kt) [c] 17,577 19,000 19,000
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 3,638 3,500 3,600
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 3,647 3,516 3,629
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 8,065 7,878 8,075
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 4,483 3,700 5,400
Average Price ($/t) [g] 240 240-250 220-250
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products, while excluding oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Total number excludes flaxseed food and industrial use due to data confidentiality.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Crop year average prices: Wheat (No.1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No.1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices and are not comparable to CWB pool returns for previous years.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019, area, yield and production are from the STC survey but imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
All Wheat [a]: June 14, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 9,126 10,073 10,422
Area harvested (kha) 8,983 9,881 10,215
Yield (t/ha) 3.34 3.22 3.31
Production (kt) 29,984 31,769 33,850
Imports (kt) [b] 82 85 90
Total supply (kt) 36,923 37,763 39,340
Exports (kt) [c] 21,919 23,400 23,700
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 3,839 3,705 3,805
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 4,234 4,199 4,073
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 9,095 8,963 8,940
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 5,909 5,400 6,700
  • [a] Crop year is August-July
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products, while excluding oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Total number excludes flaxseed food and industrial use due to data confidentiality.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019, area, yield and production are from the STC survey but imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Coarse grains

Barley

For 2018-19, the supply of barley in Canada fell by 4% from 2017-18 to 9.7 million tonnes (Mt). Exports are forecast to increase by 5% to almost 3.0 Mt. Total domestic use is expected to decrease mainly on lower feed use, waste and dockage (FWD). Carry-out stocks are forecast to drop by 28% to 0.9 Mt, which is 44% lower than the past five year average.

World barley production for 2018-19 is estimated at the lowest level in six years, according to USDA. Carry-out stocks will be historically low, including a steep decline in major exporters. Due to lower imports by China and Saudi Arabia, world trade is expected to decrease. Amid tight supplies, world prices for feed barley have been very strong, compared to corn prices. Combined with abundant supplies of corn worldwide, corn has been used as an alternative crop for feed barley in some countries.

As a result of lower supplies and strong demand, the feed barley price at Lethbridge is forecast at $255/t, about 12% higher than last year. The average Prairie malt price is 17-24% higher than last year.

For 2019-20, the area seeded to barley in Canada is forecast to increase by 10% from 2018-19, due to high barley prices and tight carry-in stocks. Production is forecast to increase by 12% to 9.4 Mt while total supply to increase by 7% to 10.3 Mt. Exports are forecast to decrease by 7% due to the production recovery in the world major exporters and a return to normal trade patterns. Total domestic use is expected to rise due to higher feed use in cattle and hog production. Owing to higher supplies, barley carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by about 60% to 1.5 Mt. This is about 5% higher than the previous five-year average.

The Lethbridge cash feed barley price is expected to increase from the level in 2018-19 due to higher US corn prices in 2019-20.

In this spring, the seeding progress of barley on the Prairies has been well ahead of normal due to ongoing dry weather, but rain will be needed for crop germination and development.

The USDA expects world barley production for 2019-20 to increase to the highest level in most recent 10 years, largely due to higher production from the world major exporters. World trade is projected to increase, owing to lifted import forecasts for Saudi Arabia, China and Morocco. World carry-out stocks are expected to increase but remain low. Large corn inventories will put pressure on barley prices.

Barley [a]: June 14, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 2,334 2,628 2,895
Area harvested (kha) 2,114 2,395 2,605
Yield (t/ha) 3.73 3.50 3.59
Production (kt) 7,891 8,380 9,352
Imports (kt) [b] 59 40 40
Total supply (kt) 10,072 9,664 10,292
Exports (kt) [c] 2,823 2,950 2,750
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 62 86 111
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 5,716 5,478 5,756
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 6,005 5,814 6,092
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,244 900 1,450
Average Price ($/t) [g] 227 250-260 250-280
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products, while excluding oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Total number excludes flaxseed food and industrial use due to data confidentiality.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Barley (No.1 feed, cash, in-store Lethbridge).
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019, area, yield and production are from the STC survey but imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Corn

For 2018-19, Canadian corn supply is expected to increase by 3% from 2017-18 to 18.8 Mt, as significantly higher imports more-than offset lower production and carry-in stocks. Imports are expected to increase due to lower supplies of good quality corn crop in Eastern Canada and the tight supply of barley in Western Canada. Exports are expected to increase owing to higher deliveries to EU. Total domestic use is expected to increase mainly on higher feed use. Carry-out stocks are forecast to drop by 9% to 2.2 Mt.

The 2018-19 corn price at Chatham is forecast to average at $185/t which is 6% higher than last year. This is due to higher US corn prices and the weak Canadian dollar. However, strong competition from South America in the international export markets has been continuing to pressure US corn prices lower.

World corn production for 2018-19 is expected to be the second-largest in history, mainly due to larger production prospects from South America, according to USDA. World carry-out stocks will drop but still be high. World trade will be a new high, owing to higher import forecasts for EU, China, Mexico and Saudi Arabia.

According to USDA, US corn production and supply were slightly lower than last year. Carry-out stocks are expected to decrease but remain historically high. The average US farm price is forecast at US$3.60/bu which is equivalent to C$187/t.

For 2019-20, the seeded area for corn in Canada is forecast to increase by 5% from 2018-19. Production is expected to rise by 5% to 14.6 Mt. Imports are expected to decrease significantly due to higher domestic production of corn and barley. Owing to lower carry-in stocks and imports, total supply is forecast to decrease. Exports are forecast to decrease on lower deliveries to the EU. Total domestic use is forecast to decrease slightly. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decline on lower projection of total supply, and will be the lowest in the recent five years.

The Chatham corn price is expected to increase by 5% to $195/t due to an increase in US corn prices for 2019-20 projected by USDA. The weak Canadian dollar will continue to provide support to corn prices in Canada.

US corn area for 2019-20 is projected to increase slightly due to unfavorable seeding conditions, despite lower soybean area, according to USDA. Combined with lowered yield projection, the production is expected to reduce for four consecutive years. As a result, the average of farm prices of corn in the US is expected to increase to US$3.80/bu which is equivalent to about C$197/t. This is supportive for grain prices.

The 2019 spring in the US has been extremely wet and cold, which has severely delayed the spring crop sowing and the crop emergence. The soggy field conditions and delayed crop emergence have raised the potential for below-trend yields.

World corn production for 2019-20 is forecast to decline, mainly due to decreased production projections for the US and Ukraine, according to USDA. Total use is projected to be the highest ever, while carry-out stocks are projected to be the lowest in recent five years. World trade activity is expected to be the most active ever, with higher exports from Argentina, Brazil and Russia.

Corn [a]: June 14, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,447 1,468 1,536
Area harvested (kha) 1,406 1,431 1,497
Yield (t/ha) 10.02 9.70 9.74
Production (kt) 14,096 13,885 14,582
Imports (kt) [b] 1,699 2,500 1,300
Total supply (kt) 18,291 18,802 18,082
Exports (kt) [c] 1,936 2,100 1,750
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 5,146 5,200 5,250
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 8,776 9,285 9,066
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 13,938 14,502 14,332
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 2,417 2,200 2,000
Average Price ($/t) [g] 174 175-195 180-210
  • [a] Crop year is September-August.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products, while excluding oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Total number excludes flaxseed food and industrial use due to data confidentiality.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Corn (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham).
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2017-2018, imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC but will be available from STC on October 4 2018. For 2018-2019, area, yield and production are from the STC survey but imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Oats

For 2018-19, Canadian oat supply decreased by 5% from 2017-18 to 4.2 Mt. Exports are forecast to decrease slightly. Mainly owing to lower supply, carry-out stocks are forecast to drop by 36% to 0.5 Mt; it is 41% lower than the previous five-year average.

Oat price in Canada is forecast to increase from last year, due to higher US oat futures prices and continuing support from weak Canadian dollars.

For 2019-20, the area seeded to oats in Canada is forecast to increase by 8% from 2018-19, due to good prices and tight carry-in stocks. Total supply is expected to decrease by 3% to 4.1 Mt, as higher production is projected to be more than offset by lower carry-in stocks.

Exports for 2019-20 are expected to remain at the same level as 2018-19. Total domestic use is forecast to decrease by 8%, largely due to lowered use for feed, waste and dockage. Carry-out stocks are forecast to be tight and remain at the same level as 2018-19.

Oat prices for 2019-20 in Canada are expected to increase from 2018-19, due to expectations for tightening domestic supply balance for 2019-20 and supports of higher US corn prices.

The dryness on the Prairies has helped oat seeding, but more precipitation will be needed for crop germination and development.

For 2019-20, the area seeded to oats in the US is projected to decrease slightly from 2018-19, according to USDA. The production is expected to increase on higher trend yield. Imports are forecast to rise significantly.

Oats [a]: June 14, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,295 1,235 1,332
Area harvested (kha) 1,052 1,005 1,055
Yield (t/ha) 3.55 3.42 3.41
Production (kt) 3,733 3,436 3,598
Imports (kt) [b] 14 10 20
Total supply (kt) 4,450 4,224 4,118
Exports (kt) [c] 2,365 2,350 2,350
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 109 125 125
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 1,094 1,138 1,037
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 1,307 1,374 1,268
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 778 500 500
Average Price ($/t) [g] 218 245-255 260-290
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products, while excluding oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Total number excludes flaxseed food and industrial use due to data confidentiality.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Oats (US No.2 Heavy, Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) nearby futures)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019, area, yield and production are from the STC survey but imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Rye

For 2018-19, Canadian rye supply decreased by 29% from 2017-18 to 362 thousand tonnes (Kt). Exports are forecast to decrease by 23%. Total domestic use is expected to decrease on lower industrial use. Because of tight supply, carry-out stocks are forecast to drop by 60% to 50 Kt, the lowest in the recent three years.

The average price of rye in Canada is forecast to be significantly higher than last year due to smaller North American rye crop. In Saskatchewan, the average price of rye is expected to average $245/t, up almost 51% from last year and the highest level ever recorded.

For 2019-20, the area seeded to rye in Canada is forecast to increase by 28% from 2018-19. Production is expected to rise to 351 Kt. Total supply is forecast to increase on expectations for higher production. Rye exports are forecast to increase due to a bigger supply. Total domestic use is forecast to increase due to higher industrial use. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase to 70 Kt.

Rye prices for 2019-20 in Canada are forecast to decrease from 2018-19 but remain strong.

Rye [a]: June 14, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 144 136 174
Area harvested (kha) 101 79 122
Yield (t/ha) 3.38 2.99 2.87
Production (kt) 341 236 351
Imports (kt) [b] 1 2 2
Total supply (kt) 507 362 403
Exports (kt) [c] 195 150 160
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 58 27 44
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 119 120 109
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 188 162 173
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 124 50 70
Average Price ($/t) [g] 162 240-250 215-245
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products, while excluding oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Total number excludes flaxseed food and industrial use due to data confidentiality.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Rye (No.1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019, area, yield and production are from the STC survey but imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada
Mixed Grains [a]: June 14, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 123 144 134
Area harvested (kha) 54 69 55
Yield (t/ha) 2.77 2.82 2.82
Production (kt) 149 195 155
Imports (kt) [b] 0 0 0
Total supply (kt) 149 195 155
Exports (kt) [c] 0 0 0
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 0 0 0
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 149 195 155
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 149 195 155
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 0 0 0
  • [a] August-July crop year
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products, while excluding oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Total number excludes flaxseed food and industrial use due to data confidentiality.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019, area, yield and production are from the STC survey but imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Total Coarse Grains: June 14, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area Seeded 5,342 5,610 6,071
Area harvested (kha) 4,727 4,979 5,334
Yield (t/ha) 5.55 5.25 5.26
Production (kt) 26,210 26,132 28,038
Imports (kt) [b] 1,773 2,552 1,362
Total supply (kt) 33,469 33,247 33,049
Exports (kt) [c] 7,318 7,550 7,010
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 5,375 5,438 5,530
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 15,854 16,215 16,122
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 21,587 22,047 22,019
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 4,564 3,650 4,020
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products, while excluding oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Total number excludes flaxseed food and industrial use due to data confidentiality.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019, area, yield and production are from the STC survey but imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Oilseeds

Canola

For 2018-19, canola supplies are estimated at almost 23.0 million tonnes (Mt), up 1% from last year as higher carry-in stocks and imports moderate the drop in production. Canada's canola crush estimate is unchanged from last month, at 9.25 Mt, based on the current crush pace. Canola oil production is estimated at 4.0 Mt with canola meal output expected to reach 5.2 Mt, unchanged from 2017-18.

Canada's export estimate for canola is unchanged from the May report at 9.3 Mt, versus 10.7 Mt for 2017-18, based on the weekly export pace. Canola exports are currently about 1.0 Mt behind last year's pace, based on CGC weekly statistics and averaged about 0.18 Mt a week for the month of May.

The carry-out stocks estimate is unchanged from the May report at 3.9 Mt versus 2.5 Mt for 2017-18. The stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 20%, up from the 12% reached in 2017-18 and the 10-year average of 13%. Canola prices were raised by $5/t from the May release and are forecast at $490/t to $510/t for 2018-19.

For 2019-20, farmers intend to seed 8.6 million hectares (Mha) to canola compared to the 9.2 Mha planted last year. Production is forecast at 18.9 Mt, assuming normal yields. Total supplies of canola are forecast to fall marginally to 22.9 Mt, as sharply higher carry-in stocks more-than offset the drop in production.

The export forecast was raised from the May report to 9.0 Mt on support from the current export pace, a seasonal weather market rally in early June 2019 and expectations of a sharp rise in prevent plantings across key US growing regions following excessive rainfall and widespread flooding. Exports are forecast to remain constrained, assuming no normalization of agricultural trade between China and Canada. The export forecast remains highly uncertain and any change directly affects the carry-out stock estimate. Domestic crush is forecast steady at 9.25 Mt as the industry continues to operate at near full capacity.

The carry-out stock forecast was lowered by 1.0 Mt from last month to 4.3 Mt, generating a stocks-to-use ratio of 23%. The record stocks-to-use ratio for Canadian canola was 30%, reached in 1988-89. Canola prices are forecast to decrease slightly to $460-500/t, with underlying support provided by the weak value of the Canadian dollar.

Canola [a]: June 14, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 9,313 9,232 8,625
Area harvested (kha) 9,273 9,120 8,558
Yield (t/ha) 2.30 2.23 2.21
Production (kt) 21,328 20,343 18,900
Imports (kt) [b] 108 125 100
Total supply (kt) 22,778 22,967 22,900
Exports (kt) [c] 10,726 9,300 9,000
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 9,269 9,250 9,250
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 216 466 299
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 9,552 9,767 9,600
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 2,499 3,900 4,300
Average Price ($/t) [g] 539 490-510 460-500
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products, while excluding oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Total number excludes flaxseed food and industrial use due to data confidentiality.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Canola (No.1 Canada, cash, Track Vancouver)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019, area, yield and production are from the STC survey but imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Flaxseed (excluding solin)

For 2018-19, the supply estimate is unchanged from the May report at 0.63 Mt. Compared to last year, exports are forecast to fall to 0.40 Mt while total domestic use declines to 0.14 Mt on lower feed, waste and dockage. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease to 0.09 Mt. Flaxseed prices are estimated at $490-510/t, up from 2017-18.

For 2019-20, seeded area for flaxseed in Canada is forecast to increase to 0.40 Mha, on comparatively good prices versus alternate field crops. Production is forecast to rise to 0.60 Mt, assuming a normal abandonment and harvested area and 5-year average yields. Supply is forecast to increase slightly as higher output exceeds the slight drop in carry-in stocks.

Exports are forecast to rise to 0.50 Mt while total domestic use falls due to lower feed, waste and dockage. Carry-out stocks are forecast unchanged at 0.09 Mt. Flaxseed prices are forecast at $480-520/t.

Flaxseed (excluding solin) [a]: June 14, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 421 347 405
Area harvested (kha) 419 342 396
Yield (t/ha) 1.33 1.44 1.51
Production (kt) 555 492 600
Imports (kt) [b] 7 8 10
Total supply (kt) 802 627 695
Exports (kt) [c] 515 400 500
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 0 0 0
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 145 126 90
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 160 142 110
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 127 85 85
Average Price ($/t) [g] 463 490-510 470-510
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products, while excluding oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Total number excludes flaxseed food and industrial use due to data confidentiality.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Flaxseed (No.1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • n/a: not available
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019, area, yield and production are from the STC survey but imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Soybeans

For 2018-19, total supplies are estimated at 8.9 Mt, up from last year on sharply higher carry-in stocks and imports which more-than-offsets the drop in output. Exports are estimated at 5.2 Mt, higher than the 4.9 Mt shipped in 2017-18. Soybean crush is estimated up marginally from last year to 2.0 Mt. Carry-out stocks are projected at 0.67 Mt, up slightly from last year. Soybean prices are forecast to fall to $390-410/t versus $434/t for 2017-18.

For 2019-20, the planted area is estimated down by 11% from last year, to 2.29 Mha, on low prices and dry growing conditions across Western Canada. Production is forecast to fall to 6.5 Mt due to the drop in area and lower yields.

Total supply is forecast to decrease by 15% to 7.6 Mt, resulting in a 13% drop in exports to 4.5 Mt. Exports are destined for a diverse group of countries. Domestic processing is forecast to decrease slightly to 1.9 Mt, on stable domestic soyoil consumption. Carry-out stocks of soybeans are forecast to tighten to 0.62 Mt from 0.67 Mt in 2018-19. Soybean prices are forecast to fall to $370-410/t due to lower US soybean prices. A stable Canadian/United States currency exchange rate is forecast.

Factors to watch are:

  1. the severity of excess rainfall and the extent of flooding across the US
  2. cool and dry growing conditions across Western Canada
  3. cool and wet across the eastern provinces
  4. US and Canadian crop conditions and
  5. weather related price volatility
Soybeans [a] : June 14, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 2,947 2,558 2,285
Area harvested (kha) 2,935 2,540 2,265
Yield (t/ha) 2.63 2.86 2.87
Production (kt) 7,717 7,267 6,500
Imports (kt) [b] 534 1,000 400
Total supply (kt) 8,606 8,918 7,570
Exports (kt) [c] 4,929 5,200 4,500
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 1,969 2,000 1,900
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 795 798 350
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 3,026 3,048 2,450
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 651 670 620
Average Price ($/t) [g] 434 390-410 355-395
  • [a] Crop year is September-August.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products, while excluding oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Total number excludes flaxseed food and industrial use due to data confidentiality.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Soybeans (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2017-2018, imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC but will be available from STC on October 4 2018. For 2018-2019, area, yield and production are from the STC survey but imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada
Total Oilseeds : June 14, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 12,681 12,137 11,315
Area harvested (kha) 12,627 12,001 11,220
Yield (t/ha) 2.34 2.34 2.32
Production (kt) 29,600 28,102 26,000
Imports (kt) [b] 649 1,133 510
Total supply (kt) 32,186 32,512 31,165
Exports (kt) [c] 16,170 14,900 14,000
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 11,238 11,250 11,150
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 1,156 1,390 739
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 12,738 12,957 12,160
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 3,277 4,655 5,005
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products, while excluding oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Total number excludes flaxseed food and industrial use due to data confidentiality.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019, area, yield and production are from the STC survey but imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada
Total Grains and Oilseeds : June 14, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 27,149 27,820 27,808
Area harvested (kha) 26,337 26,861 26,768
Yield (t/ha) 3.26 3.20 3.28
Production (kt) 85,794 86,002 87,888
Imports (kt) [b] 2,504 3,770 1,962
Total supply (kt) 102,577 103,522 103,554
Exports (kt) [c] 45,408 45,850 44,710
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 43,420 43,967 43,119
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 13,750 13,705 15,725
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products, while excluding oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Total number excludes flaxseed food and industrial use due to data confidentiality.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019, area, yield and production are from the STC survey but imports and dispositions are forecast by AAFC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Pulses and special crops

Dry peas

For 2018-19, Canada's exports are expected to increase marginally from 2017-18 to 3.1 million tonnes (Mt) due to increased demand from China and Bangladesh. For the August to April period, Canadian exports to the US are below last year's level, largely due to a larger US dry pea crop. Carry-out stocks in Canada are expected to fall sharply, due to increased domestic use and similar export demand. The average dry pea price is expected to increase from the price in 2017-18, as lower yellow pea prices have been more than offset by higher green and feed pea prices.

Over the crop year, the price premium for yellow dry pea prices over green dry peas is expected to average $135/t, compared to the $40/t premium observed in 2017-18. During the month of May, the yellow pea farmgate prices rose marginally, however, green pea prices fell $10/t, as dry pea seeding progress continued at an average pace.

For 2019-20, Canadian dry pea seeded area is expected to rise by 12% from 2018-19 to 1.6 Mha due to higher returns from the previous year and solid export demand. By province, Saskatchewan is expected to account for 54% of the dry pea area, Alberta 42%, with the remainder seeded across Canada.

Production is expected to increase by 12% to 4.0 Mt due to higher area and similar yields. However, supply is forecast to increase only marginally due to lower carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be slightly lower with China and Bangladesh as Canada's top markets. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise to 0.4 Mt, but similar to the long-term average. The average price is expected to be unchanged from 2018-19 due to expectations for increased domestic and world supply.

In the US, area seeded to dry peas is forecast by the USDA to increase marginally to 0.9 million acres. This is largely due to an expected rise in area in Montana partly offset by a fall in North Dakota area. Assuming normal yields and abandonment, US dry pea production is forecast by AAFC to fall by 3% to 0.7 Mt. The US has been successful in exporting small amounts of green dry peas to Canada, the Philippines and Yemen, and it is expected the US will maintain its market share in 2019-20.

Dry Peas [a]: June 14, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,656 1,463 1,633
Area harvested (kha) 1,642 1,431 1,600
Yield (t/ha) 2.50 2.50 2.50
Production (kt) 4,112 3,581 4,000
Imports (kt) [b] 12 35 15
Total supply (kt) 4,424 4,264 4,315
Exports (b) 3,085 3,100 3,000
Total Domestic Use (c) 691 864 915
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 648 300 400
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 17 8 10
Average Price (d) 265 260-280 255-285
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019 and the years before 2018-2019, area, yield and production are from STC. For the years before 2018-2019, imports, exports, seed requirements and carry-out stocks are from STC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Lentils

For 2018-19, lentil exports are forecast to increase sharply from 2017-18 to 1.8 Mt. The main markets are India, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Bangladesh. Total domestic use is forecast to be lower than the previous year at 0.4 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease. The average price, for all types and grades, is forecast to fall sharply due to higher carry-out stocks for large green types and expectations for a large rabi Indian pulse harvest. For the crop year, large green lentil prices are expected to maintain a small premium (C$70/t) over red lentil prices. During May, Saskatchewan large green and red farm gate prices rose by $20/t.

For 2019-20, area seeded to lentils in Canada is expected to decrease by 10% to below 1.4 Mha, due to the sharp decline in farmgate lentil prices in the last half of the 2018-19 crop year. Saskatchewan is expected to account for 91% of the lentil area, with the remainder in Alberta and Manitoba. Production is forecast by AAFC to fall to 2.0 Mt. Supply is expected to fall, to 2.8 Mt, as a result of lower carry-in stocks and production. Exports are expected to be unchanged from 2018-19 at 1.8 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease to 0.5 Mt. The average price is forecast to rise from 2018-19 with higher prices for the top grades with the assumption of an average grade distribution.

In the US, the area seeded to lentils for 2019-20 is forecast by the USDA at 0.55 million acres, down 29% from 2018-19 due to lower area seeded in Montana and North Dakota. Assuming normal yields and abandonment, US lentil production is forecast by AAFC to decrease sharply from 2018-19 to below 300 thousand tonnes (Kt). The main US export markets for lentils continue to be the EU, Canada, India and Mexico.

Lentils [a]: June 14, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,783 1,525 1,378
Area harvested (kha) 1,774 1,499 1,360
Yield (t/ha) 1.44 1.40 1.47
Production (kt) 2,559 2,092 2,000
Imports (kt) [b] 35 20 20
Total supply (kt) 2,908 2,985 2,795
Exports (b) 1,537 1,800 1,800
Total Domestic Use (c) 498 410 495
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 873 775 500
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 43 35 22
Average Price (d) 475 375-395 430-460
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019 and the years before 2018-2019, area, yield and production are from STC. For the years before 2018-2019, imports, exports, seed requirements and carry-out stocks are from STC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Dry beans

For 2018-19, dry bean exports are expected to be lower than the previous year. The US and the EU remain the main markets for Canadian dry beans, with smaller volumes exported to Japan and Angola. The smaller North American supply is expected to continue to support the majority of US and Canadian dry bean prices for the remainder of 2018-19.

For 2019-20, the area seeded in Canada is forecast to decrease by 8% from 2018-19 because of lower expected returns compared to other crops. By province, Ontario is expected to account for 39% of the dry bean area, Manitoba 32%, Alberta 18%, with the remainder seeded in Saskatchewan, Quebec and the Maritimes. Production is expected to fall to 0.31 Mt. Supply is still expected to increase by large carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to rise marginally due to the increased supply. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to be largely unchanged, due to lower expected supply in North America, particularly for the white pea bean and pinto types.

In the US, area seeded to dry beans is forecast by the USDA to rise marginally to 1.2 million acres as a rise in area seeded in some of the smaller growing states is partly offset by lower area in Nebraska and North Dakota. Assuming normal yields and abandonment, 2019-20 US total dry bean production (excluding chickpeas) is therefore forecast to fall below 1.1 Mt, down 6% from 2018-19.

Dry Beans [a]: June 14, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 135 143 131
Area harvested (kha) 131 137 128
Yield (t/ha) 2.45 2.49 2.42
Production (kt) 322 341 310
Imports (kt) [b] 86 90 80
Total supply (kt) 409 466 480
Exports (b) 351 345 350
Total Domestic Use (c) 23 31 25
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 35 90 105
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 9 24 28
Average Price (d) 760 805-825 800-830
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Chickpeas

For 2018-19, Canadian chickpea exports are expected to fall to 105 Kt. Increased export demand from Pakistan has been offset by lower demand from the US and Turkey. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise sharply and pressure prices. The average price is forecast to be sharply lower than that for the previous year due to expectations for an increase in world chickpea supply in the last half of the crop year and the first half of the 2019-20 crop year.

For 2019-20, the area seeded is expected to decrease sharply from 2018-19 as a result of the significantly lower farmgate prices witnessed in the previous year. By province, Saskatchewan is expected to account for 82% of the chickpea area, with the remainder in Alberta and British Columbia. Production is forecast to fall significantly to 230 Kt. Supply is forecast to increase due to higher carry-in stocks, but softened by lower imports and production. Exports are forecast to fall marginally and carry-out stocks are expected to increase and remain burdensome. The average price is forecast to fall due to larger world supply, with the expectation of an average grade distribution in 2019-20.

US chickpea area for 2019-20 is forecast by the USDA to decrease to 0.52 million acres, down 40% from the previous year. This is largely due to an expected fall in area in Idaho, North Dakota and Washington. Assuming normal yields and abandonment, 2019-20 US chickpea production is therefore forecast by AAFC at 0.33 Mt, down 43% from 2018-19. The US is expected to continue to hold on to its market share in the EU, Pakistan and Canada.

Chickpeas [a]: June 14, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 68 179 135
Area harvested (kha) 68 176 133
Yield (t/ha) 1.49 1.77 1.73
Production (kt) 102 311 230
Imports (kt) [b] 48 40 18
Total supply (kt) 151 365 433
Exports (b) 116 105 100
Total Domestic Use (c) 21 75 73
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 13 185 260
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 10 103 150
Average Price (d) 950 480-500 465-495
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Mustard seed

For 2018-19, Canadian mustard exports are forecast to remain unchanged at 112 Kt. The US and the EU have been the main export markets for Canadian mustard seed. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase. Prices are forecast to fall from 2017-18 due to increased carry-out stocks, particularly for yellow and brown types.

For 2019-20, the area seeded is expected to decrease due to lower prices from the previous year. By province, Saskatchewan is expected to account for nearly 78% of the mustard seeded area, with 21% seeded in Alberta and the remainder in Manitoba. Production is forecast by AAFC to decrease by 14% to 150 Kt due to lower expected area and average yields. Supply is expected to fall only marginally, due to higher carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to rise to 120 Kt and carry-out stocks are forecast to be lower than the previous year. The average price is forecast to be lower than that observed for the previous year.

Mustard Seed [a]: June 14, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 156 204 169
Area harvested (kha) 153 197 165
Yield (t/ha) 0.80 0.88 0.91
Production (kt) 122 174 150
Imports (kt) [b] 9 7 5
Total supply (kt) 211 234 230
Exports (b) 112 112 120
Total Domestic Use (c) 45 47 45
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 53 75 65
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 34 47 39
Average Price (d) 770 675-695 650-680
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019 and the years before 2018-2019, area, yield and production are from STC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Canary seed

For 2018-19, exports are expected to be lower than 2017-18. The EU and Mexico have remained the main markets. Carry-out stocks are expected to tighten. The average price is forecast to increase compared to 2017-18.

For 2019-20, the area seeded is expected to increase due to higher returns for canary seed relative to other crops. Production is forecast to rise by 6% but supply is expected to decrease. Exports are expected to decrease from 2018-19 due to lower supply. Carry-out stocks are expected to remain tight. The average price is forecast to be slightly lower than the 2018-19 level.

Canary Seed [a]: June 14, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 103 86 93
Area harvested (kha) 103 85 91
Yield (t/ha) 1.41 1.39 1.37
Production (kt) 145 118 125
Imports (kt) [b] 0 0 0
Total supply (kt) 165 130 127
Exports (b) 147 125 120
Total Domestic Use (c) 6 3 2
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 12 2 5
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 8 2 4
Average Price (d) 465 495-515 480-510
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019 and the years before 2018-2019, area, yield and production are from STC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Sunflower seed

For 2018-19, sunflower seed exports are forecast to increase to 24 Kt due to higher demand from the US. The US and Japan have been Canada's main export market for sunflower seed. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise. The average Canadian price for sunflower seed is forecast to decrease marginally from 2017-18, despite higher confectionery type and oil type sunflower seed prices. The decrease was due to a higher percentage of the lower priced oilseed types crops grown in 2018-19, compared to the previous year.

For 2019-20, the area seeded is expected to be unchanged from 2018-19 due to similar potential returns compared to other crops. Production is forecast to be similar at 57 Kt, assuming average yields. However, supply is expected to increase only marginally to 119 Kt. Exports are expected to fall and carry-out stocks are forecast to increase. The average price is forecast to rise from 2018-19 due to expectations for lower North American sunflower seed supply and stronger confectionery type prices in the US and Canada.

US sunflower seed area for 2019-20 is forecast by the USDA to rise to 1.35 million acres, up marginally from 2018-19 due to increased area in North Dakota. The area seeded to oil type varieties is expected to rise to 1.2 million acres and the area seeded to confectionery type varieties is forecast to increase to 0.15 million acres. Assuming normal yields and abandonment, 2019-20 US sunflower seed production is forecast by AAFC to fall by 4% to just above 0.8 Mt.

Sunflower Seed [a]: June 14, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 26 29 29
Area harvested (kha) 26 27 28
Yield (t/ha) 2.26 2.13 2.07
Production (kt) 58 57 57
Imports (kt) [b] 22 20 22
Total supply (kt) 105 112 119
Exports (b) 17 24 20
Total Domestic Use (c) 53 49 49
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 35 40 50
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 50 55 73
Average Price (d) 590 575-595 575-605
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC. For 2018-2019 and the years before 2018-2019, area, yield and production are from STC.
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

 

Total Pulses and Special Crops [a]: June 14, 2019
2017-2018 2018-2019[f] 2019-2020[f]
Area seeded (kha) 3,927 3,629 3,567
Area harvested (kha) 3,897 3,552 3,505
Yield (t/ha) 1.90 1.88 1.96
Production (kt) 7,419 6,674 6,872
Imports (kt) [b] 211 212 160
Total supply (kt) 8,373 8,556 8,499
Exports (b) 5,365 5,611 5,510
Total Domestic Use (c) 1,337 1,478 1,604
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 1,670 1,467 1,385
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC and STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Historical data

Historical principal field crops data are available in spreadsheet format and can be obtained by emailing aafc.bulletin.aac@canada.ca. Please specify crops, crop years, and preferred file format in your request.

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