Integrating socio-economic and biophysical models: revision of a land use allocation model.

Du, Y., Liu, T.T., Huffman, E.C., McConkey, B.G., Toure, S., Feng, F., Green, M., Liu, J., and Liu, H.J. (2015). "Integrating socio-economic and biophysical models: revision of a land use allocation model.", Soil Use and Management, 31(3), pp. 417-420. doi : 10.1111/sum.12193  Access to full text

Abstract

Integration of large-area, economically driven macro-models and small-area, biophysically based models in the Canadian agricultural sector was described recently in the development of a land-use allocation model (LUAM). We have since developed and integrated an improved methodology for allocating crop area changes generated for large areas by the Canadian Regional Agricultural Model (CRAM) to much smaller Soil Landscapes of Canada (SLC) polygons. Validation of outputs showed considerable improvement. The new coefficients of determination (R2) between simulated and actual data, with previous values in brackets, were 0.69 for fodder corn (0.54), 0.88 for wheat (0.62), 0.77 for hay (0.26), 0.54 for alfalfa (not previously reported), 0.88 for soya bean (0.26) and 0.86 for grain corn (0.22). The best result was obtained for soya bean, with a normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 0.31%, and the poorest for alfalfa, with NRMSE = 17.34%.

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