Prediction of land-use conversions for use in watershed-scale hydrological modeling: a Canadian case study.

El-Khoury, A., Seidou, O., Lapen, D.R., Sunohara, M., Que, Z., Mohammadian, M., and Daneshfar, B. (2014). "Prediction of land-use conversions for use in watershed-scale hydrological modeling: a Canadian case study.", Canadian Geographer, 58(4), pp. 499-516. doi : 10.1111/cag.12105  Access to full text

Abstract

Land-use conversion models elucidate the complexities and spatial interdependencies of components of land use systems and provide insights into future land-use configurations. In this paper, the 2012–2050 future land-use patterns in the South Nation (SN) River basin, located in eastern Ontario, Canada, were generated with a modified version of the CLUE model and a 2011 reference map. The SN is an example of a basin where some water quality endpoints have dropped below acceptable limits because of a combination of intensive agriculture, urbanization, and climate change. Five historical land-use maps were used to identify the historical trends in generalized land-use classes. Seven demographic and geographic factors were used to derive the spatial distribution of land suitability to each land-use class. The methodology was first validated by simulating land-use changes from 1991 to 2011 starting from the 1991 reference map, and comparing the simulated 2011 map to the 2011 reference map. Then, the 2012–2050 land-uses were generated, assuming historical trends derived from historical reference maps will continue in the future. Environmental impacts of the projected land-use changes were discussed.

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