Timothy Yield and Nutritive Value under Climate Change in Canada.

Jing, Q., Bélanger, G., Qian, B., and Baron, V.S. (2013). "Timothy Yield and Nutritive Value under Climate Change in Canada.", Agronomy Journal, 105(6), pp. 1683-1694. doi : 10.2134/agronj2013.0195  Access to full text

Abstract

Timothy (Phleum pratense L.) is a dominant forage grass in Canada but its performance under projected future climate conditions has not been evaluated. This study combined the grass model CATIMO (Canadian Timothy Model) with baseline (1961–1990) and projected future (2040–2069) climate scenarios to assess the response of timothy to climate change at 10 sites across Canada. Projected future conditions are expected to have the following effects on timothy: (i) earlier growth onset (10-site average: –21 d; range: –4 to –40 d), date of first harvest (–15 d; –11 to –25 d), and date of second harvest (–20 d; –17 to –29 d), along with a later end to the growing season (+12 d; 0 to +18 d); (ii) increased dry matter (DM) yield at first harvest (+355 kg ha1; –917 to +826 kg ha1) but decreased DM yield at second harvest (–427 kg ha1; +47 to –936 kg ha1); (iii) increased neutral detergent fiber (NDF) concentration at first harvest (+22 g kg1 DM; –22 to +94 g kg1 DM) but a small decrease (–3 g kg1 DM; +7 to –30 g kg1 DM) at second harvest; and (iv) decreased NDF digestibility at first harvest (–6 g kg1 NDF; +7 to –30 g kg1 NDF) and second harvest (–23 g kg1 NDF; –11 to –35 g kg1 NDF). The longer growing season (+581°C-d to +1219°C-d) is expected to result in an additional harvest by 2040 to 2069.

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